Daily research · 6 Nov 2026

Published 6 Nov 2026, 19:58 UTC

Market snapshot 6 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

BTC ATM volatility eases most at 1W

BTC ATM volatility eased most at 1W while longer tenors barely rose, pointing to a retreat in near-term uncertainty rather than uniform volatility relief. More negative 1W and 1M RR25 show that the easing coexisted with a deeper existing downside bias.

The reading

What the evidence says

BTC 1W at-the-money implied volatility changed by -1.96 vol points ^[1] to 38.75% ^[2] over the daily options comparison. The easing extended through the middle tenors: 2W ATM IV changed by -0.70 vol points ^[3] to 38.05% ^[4], and 1M changed by -0.45 vol points ^[5] to 37.97% ^[6]. Further out, 2M changed by -0.33 vol points ^[7] to 38.23% ^[8], while 3M changed by -0.26 vol points ^[9] to 38.50% ^[10]. This pattern supports a retreat in near-term uncertainty, strongest at 1W. The opposing 6M and 9M ATM changes were small: +0.03 vol points ^[11] and +0.05 vol points ^[12], respectively.

Lower BTC ATM volatility did not mean less downside asymmetry. RR25 measures call-versus-put IV asymmetry: 1W RR25 changed by -1.00 vol points ^[13] to -3.19 vol points ^[14], deepening an already negative reading. The matched 1M measure also changed by -0.66 vol points ^[15] to -3.09 vol points ^[16]. Thus the downside bias deepened at both 1W and 1M even as their ATM IV eased. Butterfly repricing also extended beyond 1W. BF25, the average wing IV premium over ATM, changed at 1W by -0.03 vol points ^[17] to 1.02 vol points ^[18]; at 2W by -0.06 vol points ^[19] to 1.09 vol points ^[20]; and at 1M by -0.13 vol points ^[21] to 0.95 vol points ^[22]. The larger 1M butterfly adjustment prevents describing smile repricing as confined to 1W.

The BTC 1W ATM adjustment was not exceptionally large within its supplied rolling-window history: its absolute-move percentile was 69.2nd percentile ^[23]. That magnitude comparison qualifies the prominence of the 1W move without changing its direction. Butterfly compression also reached the middle tenors: 2M BF25 changed by -0.11 vol points ^[24], while 3M BF25 changed by -0.06 vol points ^[25]. Alongside the matched 1M adjustment, these observations support broader narrowing of butterfly premiums rather than a purely 1W change. They describe symmetric wing premiums relative to ATM; the directional conclusion comes from RR25.

BTC spot changed by -0.22% ^[26] over the daily crypto window. Trailing realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute returns on a calendar-year annualization basis, was 39.29% ^[27]; forward 1W ATM IV minus trailing realized volatility was -0.54 vol points ^[28]. This places the eased 1W implied level slightly below the trailing realized measure, without establishing a trading edge. The broader BTC implied benchmarks remained distinct: DerivaSys DS30 was 42.14 vol points ^[29], Bitfinex BVIV was 41.49 vol points ^[30], and BVIV minus DS30 was -0.65 vol points ^[31]. Their different methodologies and independently selected observations prevent treating either as interchangeable with 1W ATM IV. Across the earlier matched equity sessions, SPX changed by -4.36% ^[32] and VIX by +11.57 index points ^[33]. That equity stress contrasts with subsequent BTC 1W ATM easing. During the crypto comparison, the Guardian reported hiring resilience alongside a subdued hiring backdrop and tightening expectations. Such policy uncertainty makes the deeper BTC 1W and 1M downside asymmetry relevant, but does not identify the cause of their repricing.

Qualifications and limits

Historical percentiles describe source-selected observed changes within their own rolling windows, with gaps retained and no filling; they do not measure population rarity or the significance of the combined ATM, RR25 and BF25 pattern.
The equity comparison runs between the prior matched market sessions and ends before the crypto options cutoff; it is not synchronized with the daily crypto window. DS30 historical ingestion timing is unavailable, and DS30 and BVIV are independently selected intraday observations. News chronology does not establish causation or positioning.
Forward 1W IV and trailing realized volatility cover different periods. The realized measure uses squared minute log returns with complete observed coverage under its source policy; the IV-minus-RV spread is descriptive, not a forecast or evidence of rich or cheap options.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
BTC · 1W	38.75 %^[2]	-1.96 vol pts^[1]	-3.19 vol pts^[14]	-1.00 vol pts^[13]	-0.03 vol pts^[17]
BTC · 2W	38.05 %^[4]	-0.70 vol pts^[3]	-3.55 vol pts^[34]	-0.99 vol pts^[35]	-0.06 vol pts^[19]
BTC · 1M	37.97 %^[6]	-0.45 vol pts^[5]	-3.09 vol pts^[16]	-0.66 vol pts^[15]	-0.13 vol pts^[21]
BTC · 2M	38.23 %^[8]	-0.33 vol pts^[7]	-3.11 vol pts^[36]	-0.54 vol pts^[37]	-0.11 vol pts^[24]
BTC · 3M	38.50 %^[10]	-0.26 vol pts^[9]	-3.11 vol pts^[38]	-0.73 vol pts^[39]	-0.06 vol pts^[25]
BTC · 6M	39.35 %^[40]	0.03 vol pts^[11]	-2.51 vol pts^[41]	-0.42 vol pts^[42]	-0.05 vol pts^[43]
BTC · 9M	39.69 %^[44]	0.05 vol pts^[12]	-2.08 vol pts^[45]	-0.33 vol pts^[46]	-0.03 vol pts^[47]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
BTC	40.71 % ^[48]	38.42 % ^[49]	38.75 % ^[2]	37.97 % ^[6]	Remained inverted

BTC: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility

^[23]

BTC RR25 curve

Figure sources: ^[57] ^[58] ^[59] ^[60] ^[61] ^[62] ^[63]

BF25 change by tenor

Figure evidence: ^[17] ^[19] ^[21]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next snapshot	Observed condition	Comparison period	Evidence
BTC · 1W ATM implied volatility	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below 38.75 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above 38.75 % and strictly below 40.71 %. Prior level: at or above 40.71 % (prior level).	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[2] ^[48] ^[1]
BTC · 2W ATM implied volatility	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below 38.05 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above 38.05 % and strictly below 38.75 %. Prior level: at or above 38.75 % (prior level).	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[4] ^[66] ^[3]
BTC · 1M ATM implied volatility	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below 37.97 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above 37.97 % and strictly below 38.42 %. Prior level: at or above 38.42 % (prior level).	05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[6] ^[49] ^[5]

Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

Measure	Population	Observed pairs or levels	Requested window	Excluded pair or level endpoints
BTC 1W.atmIv.absolute_move^[23]	rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)	26	2026-10-06T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00	2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

US job growth exceeds expectations in October despite economic uncertainty · Published 2026-11-06T13:42:26+00:00
US job growth exceeds expectations in October despite economic uncertainty · Published 2026-11-06T13:42:26+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

-1.96 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV

38.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[3] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

-0.70 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[4] BTC 2W ATM IV

38.05 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[5] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

-0.45 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[6] BTC 1M ATM IV

37.97 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[7] BTC 2M ATM IV difference

-0.33 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[8] BTC 2M ATM IV

38.23 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[9] BTC 3M ATM IV difference

-0.26 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[10] BTC 3M ATM IV

38.50 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[11] BTC 6M ATM IV difference

0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[12] BTC 9M ATM IV difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[13] BTC 1W RR25 difference

-1.00 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[14] BTC 1W RR25

-3.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[15] BTC 1M RR25 difference

-0.66 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[16] BTC 1M RR25

-3.09 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[17] BTC 1W BF25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[18] BTC 1W BF25

1.02 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[19] BTC 2W BF25 difference

-0.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[20] BTC 2W BF25

1.09 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[21] BTC 1M BF25 difference

-0.13 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[22] BTC 1M BF25

0.95 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[23] BTC 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile

69.23 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[24] BTC 2M BF25 difference

-0.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[25] BTC 3M BF25 difference

-0.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[26] BTC spotPrice percentage change

-0.22 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[27] BTC rv7d.recomputed

39.29 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[28] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-0.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[29] BTC btcVol.ds30

42.14 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[30] BTC btcVol.bviv

41.49 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[31] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

-0.65 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[32] SPX close percentage change

-4.36 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T19:00:27.446810+00:00

[33] VIX close difference

11.57 index points

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T19:00:27.446810+00:00

[34] BTC 2W RR25

-3.55 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[35] BTC 2W RR25 difference

-0.99 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[36] BTC 2M RR25

-3.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[37] BTC 2M RR25 difference

-0.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[38] BTC 3M RR25

-3.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[39] BTC 3M RR25 difference

-0.73 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[40] BTC 6M ATM IV

39.35 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[41] BTC 6M RR25

-2.51 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[42] BTC 6M RR25 difference

-0.42 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[43] BTC 6M BF25 difference

-0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[44] BTC 9M ATM IV

39.69 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[45] BTC 9M RR25

-2.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[46] BTC 9M RR25 difference

-0.33 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[47] BTC 9M BF25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[48] BTC 1W ATM IV

40.71 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[49] BTC 1M ATM IV

38.42 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

[57] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[58] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[59] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[60] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[61] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[62] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[63] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[66] BTC 2W ATM IV

38.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00

Source data (JSON) · Surface metrics (CSV) · Evidence (JSON) · Report (JSON) · Report archive

What the evidence says

Qualifications and limits

Verified market snapshot

Weekly versus monthly curve

BTC: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility

BTC RR25 curve

BF25 change by tenor

What to watch next

Source reporting

[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV

[3] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

[4] BTC 2W ATM IV

[5] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

[6] BTC 1M ATM IV

[7] BTC 2M ATM IV difference

[8] BTC 2M ATM IV

[9] BTC 3M ATM IV difference

[10] BTC 3M ATM IV

[11] BTC 6M ATM IV difference

[12] BTC 9M ATM IV difference

[13] BTC 1W RR25 difference

[14] BTC 1W RR25

[15] BTC 1M RR25 difference

[16] BTC 1M RR25

[17] BTC 1W BF25 difference

[18] BTC 1W BF25

[19] BTC 2W BF25 difference

[20] BTC 2W BF25

[21] BTC 1M BF25 difference

[22] BTC 1M BF25

[23] BTC 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile

[24] BTC 2M BF25 difference

[25] BTC 3M BF25 difference

[26] BTC spotPrice percentage change

[27] BTC rv7d.recomputed

[28] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

[29] BTC btcVol.ds30

[30] BTC btcVol.bviv

[31] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

[32] SPX close percentage change

[33] VIX close difference

[34] BTC 2W RR25

[35] BTC 2W RR25 difference

[36] BTC 2M RR25

[37] BTC 2M RR25 difference

[38] BTC 3M RR25

[39] BTC 3M RR25 difference

[40] BTC 6M ATM IV

[41] BTC 6M RR25

[42] BTC 6M RR25 difference

[43] BTC 6M BF25 difference

[44] BTC 9M ATM IV

[45] BTC 9M RR25

[46] BTC 9M RR25 difference

[47] BTC 9M BF25 difference

[48] BTC 1W ATM IV

[49] BTC 1M ATM IV

[57] Source

[58] Source

[59] Source

[60] Source

[61] Source

[62] Source

[63] Source

[66] BTC 2W ATM IV

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