Daily research · 7 Nov 2026

Published 7 Nov 2026, 19:06 UTC

Market snapshot 7 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

BTC ATM eases as butterfly premiums widen

BTC front-end at-the-money volatility eased while quoted butterfly premiums widened and downside skew deepened. The adjustment extends to 1M skew and butterfly pricing, so it is a change in relative protection pricing rather than a uniform retreat in implied volatility.

The reading

What the evidence says

BTC 1W ATM, or at-the-money implied volatility, changed by -0.07 vol points ^[1] to 38.68% ^[2] across the daily cutoff comparison. Meanwhile, 1W BF25—the average wing IV premium over ATM—changed by +0.16 vol points ^[3] to 1.18 vol points ^[4]. BTC 1W RR25, which measures call-versus-put IV asymmetry, changed by -0.24 vol points ^[5] to -3.43 vol points ^[6]. Thus, modest ATM easing accompanied a larger relative butterfly premium and a deepening existing downside bias; the butterfly measure itself establishes neither absolute wing IV nor direction.

The smile adjustment extends beyond 1W. BTC 1M ATM changed by -0.15 vol points ^[7] to 37.82% ^[8], leaving current 1W ATM above 1M. Yet 1M RR25 changed by -0.45 vol points ^[9] to -3.54 vol points ^[10], also deepening an existing downside bias. BTC 1M BF25 changed by +0.18 vol points ^[11] to 1.13 vol points ^[12]. The smaller 2W BF25 change of +0.04 vol points ^[13] to 1.13 vol points ^[14], alongside the 2M BF25 change of +0.09 vol points ^[15], shows uneven butterfly repricing rather than concentration exclusively at 1W.

Longer-tenor ATM changes run against the front-end easing: BTC 6M ATM changed by +0.27 vol points ^[16], while 9M ATM changed by +0.24 vol points ^[17]. The 9M absolute daily ATM move ranks at 80.8th percentile ^[18] within its rolling-window comparison, with sample size and bounds 26 observations (observed sampling; 08 Oct 2026–06 Nov 2026) ^[18]. That rank describes the magnitude of the 9M move, not the rarity of the combined ATM, skew and butterfly configuration.

BTC spot changed by -0.06% ^[19] over the options comparison interval, so the relative protection adjustment accompanied little net spot movement. Trailing weekly realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute returns, was 38.51% ^[20]; forward 1W ATM minus trailing realized volatility was +0.17 vol points ^[21]. This narrow descriptive gap supplies no standalone rich-or-cheap signal. The broader BTC volatility benchmarks also differ: DS30 was 43.11 vol points ^[22], BVIV was 41.85 vol points ^[23], and BVIV minus DS30 was -1.26 vol points ^[24]. These distinct methodologies do not substitute for tenor-specific ATM pricing. Cointelegraph reported restrictions on transfers involving MEXC during the options interval, providing a possible confidence backdrop for negative 1W and 1M skew, without establishing the cause of either adjustment.

Qualifications and limits

BTC 6M RR25 changed by +0.11 vol points ^[25] to -2.40 vol points ^[26]. Its existing downside bias eased, limiting any extension of the 1W and 1M skew conclusion across the curve.
Historical ranks cover eligible observed daily moves within their stated sample bounds; missing dates and source selection can affect ranks, which do not establish joint rarity.
Forward 1W IV and trailing realized volatility cover different periods. Realized volatility uses complete canonical minute-return coverage and calendar-day annualization; DS30 and BVIV use different methodologies and independently selected intraday clocks, with DS30 historical ingestion timing unverified.

Further qualifications

Quoted ATM, RR25 and BF25 changes do not establish trading flows or positioning. The reported MEXC restriction does not establish implementation effects or a causal link to options pricing.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
BTC · 1W	38.68 %^[2]	-0.07 vol pts^[1]	-3.43 vol pts^[6]	-0.24 vol pts^[5]	0.16 vol pts^[3]
BTC · 2W	37.91 %^[27]	-0.14 vol pts^[28]	-3.76 vol pts^[29]	-0.21 vol pts^[30]	0.04 vol pts^[13]
BTC · 1M	37.82 %^[8]	-0.15 vol pts^[7]	-3.54 vol pts^[10]	-0.45 vol pts^[9]	0.18 vol pts^[11]
BTC · 3M	38.71 %^[31]	0.21 vol pts^[32]	-3.07 vol pts^[33]	0.04 vol pts^[34]	0.05 vol pts^[35]
BTC · 6M	39.62 %^[36]	0.27 vol pts^[16]	-2.40 vol pts^[26]	0.11 vol pts^[25]	0.04 vol pts^[37]
BTC · 9M	39.93 %^[38]	0.24 vol pts^[17]	-1.98 vol pts^[39]	0.10 vol pts^[40]	0.03 vol pts^[41]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
BTC	38.75 % ^[42]	37.97 % ^[43]	38.68 % ^[2]	37.82 % ^[8]	Remained inverted

Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

Asset	Native observation (UTC)	1M minus 1W ATM IV
BTC	2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00	-0.86 vol pts ^[44]
BTC	2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00	-0.78 vol pts ^[45]
BTC	2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00	-2.29 vol pts ^[46]
BTC	2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00	+1.11 vol pts ^[47]

BTC BF25 curve

Figure sources: ^[55] ^[56] ^[57] ^[58] ^[59] ^[60] ^[61]

BTC: size of daily changes in the 9-month at-the-money implied volatility

^[18]

BF25 change by tenor

Figure evidence: ^[3] ^[13] ^[11]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next snapshot	Observed condition	Comparison period	Evidence
BTC · 1W ATM implied volatility	08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below 38.68 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above 38.68 % and strictly below 38.75 %. Prior level: at or above 38.75 % (prior level).	06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[2] ^[42] ^[1]
BTC · 1W 25-delta butterfly premium	08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 1.18 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 1.18 vol pts and strictly above 1.02 vol pts. Prior level: at or below 1.02 vol pts (prior level).	06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[4] ^[63] ^[3]
BTC · 6M 25-delta risk reversal	08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above -2.40 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below -2.40 vol pts and strictly above -2.51 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -2.51 vol pts (prior level).	06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[26] ^[82] ^[25]

Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

Measure	Population	Observed pairs or levels	Requested window	Excluded pair or level endpoints
BTC 9M.atmIv.absolute_move^[18]	rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)	26	2026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00	2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

US Treasury cuts off MEXC over alleged $16B in illicit transactions · Published 2026-11-06T21:05:25+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

-0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV

38.68 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[3] BTC 1W BF25 difference

0.16 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[4] BTC 1W BF25

1.18 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[5] BTC 1W RR25 difference

-0.24 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[6] BTC 1W RR25

-3.43 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[7] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

-0.15 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[8] BTC 1M ATM IV

37.82 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[9] BTC 1M RR25 difference

-0.45 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[10] BTC 1M RR25

-3.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[11] BTC 1M BF25 difference

0.18 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[12] BTC 1M BF25

1.13 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[13] BTC 2W BF25 difference

0.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[14] BTC 2W BF25

1.13 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[15] BTC 2M BF25 difference

0.09 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[16] BTC 6M ATM IV difference

0.27 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[17] BTC 9M ATM IV difference

0.24 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[18] BTC 9M ATM IV absolute move percentile

80.77 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[19] BTC spotPrice percentage change

-0.06 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[20] BTC rv7d.recomputed

38.51 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[21] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

0.17 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[22] BTC btcVol.ds30

43.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[23] BTC btcVol.bviv

41.85 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[24] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

-1.26 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[25] BTC 6M RR25 difference

0.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[26] BTC 6M RR25

-2.40 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[27] BTC 2W ATM IV

37.91 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[28] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

-0.14 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[29] BTC 2W RR25

-3.76 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[30] BTC 2W RR25 difference

-0.21 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[31] BTC 3M ATM IV

38.71 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[32] BTC 3M ATM IV difference

0.21 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[33] BTC 3M RR25

-3.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[34] BTC 3M RR25 difference

0.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[35] BTC 3M BF25 difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[36] BTC 6M ATM IV

39.62 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[37] BTC 6M BF25 difference

0.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[38] BTC 9M ATM IV

39.93 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[39] BTC 9M RR25

-1.98 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[40] BTC 9M RR25 difference

0.10 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[41] BTC 9M BF25 difference

0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[42] BTC 1W ATM IV

38.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[43] BTC 1M ATM IV

37.97 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[44] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[45] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.78 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[46] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-2.29 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[47] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

1.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[55] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[56] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[57] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[58] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[59] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[60] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[61] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[63] BTC 1W BF25

1.02 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[82] BTC 6M RR25

-2.51 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Source data (JSON) · Surface metrics (CSV) · Evidence (JSON) · Report (JSON) · Report archive

What the evidence says

Qualifications and limits

Verified market snapshot

Weekly versus monthly curve

BTC BF25 curve

BTC: size of daily changes in the 9-month at-the-money implied volatility

BF25 change by tenor

What to watch next

Source reporting

[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV

[3] BTC 1W BF25 difference

[4] BTC 1W BF25

[5] BTC 1W RR25 difference

[6] BTC 1W RR25

[7] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

[8] BTC 1M ATM IV

[9] BTC 1M RR25 difference

[10] BTC 1M RR25

[11] BTC 1M BF25 difference

[12] BTC 1M BF25

[13] BTC 2W BF25 difference

[14] BTC 2W BF25

[15] BTC 2M BF25 difference

[16] BTC 6M ATM IV difference

[17] BTC 9M ATM IV difference

[18] BTC 9M ATM IV absolute move percentile

[19] BTC spotPrice percentage change

[20] BTC rv7d.recomputed

[21] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

[22] BTC btcVol.ds30

[23] BTC btcVol.bviv

[24] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

[25] BTC 6M RR25 difference

[26] BTC 6M RR25

[27] BTC 2W ATM IV

[28] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

[29] BTC 2W RR25

[30] BTC 2W RR25 difference

[31] BTC 3M ATM IV

[32] BTC 3M ATM IV difference

[33] BTC 3M RR25

[34] BTC 3M RR25 difference

[35] BTC 3M BF25 difference

[36] BTC 6M ATM IV

[37] BTC 6M BF25 difference

[38] BTC 9M ATM IV

[39] BTC 9M RR25

[40] BTC 9M RR25 difference

[41] BTC 9M BF25 difference

[42] BTC 1W ATM IV

[43] BTC 1M ATM IV

[44] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[45] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[46] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[47] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[55] Source

[56] Source

[57] Source

[58] Source

[59] Source

[60] Source

[61] Source

[63] BTC 1W BF25

[82] BTC 6M RR25

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