Daily research · 8 Nov 2026

Published 8 Nov 2026, 18:09 UTC

Market snapshot 8 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

BTC 1W IV rises, with limited evidence of exceptional repricing

BTC protection repriced most clearly at 1W: ATM volatility rose and an existing downside skew deepened. Smaller ATM increases extended to 2W and 1M, while butterfly premiums barely changed. The observed history does not support treating the adjustment as exceptional, and spot and trailing realized volatility qualify the options signal.

The reading

What the evidence says

BTC 1W options show a firmer price of near-term protection, without compelling evidence of an exceptional move. Across the daily comparison, 1W at-the-money implied volatility changed by +1.68 vol points ^[1] to 40.36% ^[2]. The absolute change ranked at 65.4th percentile ^[3] within the supplied rolling-window comparison, 26 observations (observed sampling; 09 Oct 2026–07 Nov 2026) ^[3]. Meanwhile, 1W RR25, the call-versus-put IV asymmetry, changed by -1.01 vol points ^[4] from -3.43 vol points ^[5] to -4.44 vol points ^[6]. That deepened an existing downside bias; it did not introduce a new directional regime.

The ATM increase was strongest at 1W, but extended beyond that tenor: 2W ATM IV changed by +0.89 vol points ^[7], while 1M ATM IV changed by +0.65 vol points ^[8] to 38.47% ^[9]. The directional adjustment was also stronger at 1W: 1M RR25 changed by -0.09 vol points ^[10] to -3.63 vol points ^[11], retaining its downside bias with a much smaller daily adjustment. BF25, the average wing IV premium over ATM, offers little evidence of broad butterfly repricing. At 1W it changed by +0.04 vol points ^[12] to 1.22 vol points ^[13]; at 2W it changed by +0.01 vol points ^[14] to 1.14 vol points ^[15], and at 1M by -0.01 vol points ^[16] to 1.12 vol points ^[17]. These small relative-premium changes do not establish unchanged absolute wing IV.

The underlying market qualifies the protection narrative. BTC spot changed by -0.17% ^[18] across the same daily window. Trailing realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute prices over the weekly window, stood at 38.37% ^[19]. Forward 1W ATM IV exceeded that trailing measure by +1.99 vol points ^[20]. This supports describing a forward protection premium, but cannot establish expensive options or predict subsequent realized volatility.

Broader implied-volatility benchmarks add context without replacing the tenor-specific evidence. DerivaSys DS30, a model-free measure of implied volatility over a monthly horizon, stood at 43.71 vol points ^[21]; Bitfinex BVIV stood at 42.63 vol points ^[22], with BVIV minus DS30 at -1.08 vol points ^[23]. Their differing constructions do not establish a tradable discrepancy. Current Gulf reporting from ZeroHedge relays administrative-building damage and maritime incident claims. Such reports offer a possible near-term uncertainty channel relevant to 1W protection, but do not verify physical supply losses or explain why 1W ATM and RR25 moved more than their 1M counterparts.

Qualifications and limits

Historical ranks describe selected observed moves, with missing dates and selection limiting representativeness; broader magnitude evidence remains incomplete, so the market cannot be classified as quiet or the adjustment as exceptional.
Realized volatility uses adjacent minute returns without filling gaps; same-series recomputation does not independently validate prices. Forward 1W IV and trailing weekly realized volatility cover different periods.
DS30 and BVIV use independently selected intraday observations, and DS30's historical ingestion time is unavailable. News publication and market observation clocks differ; chronology does not establish causation.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
BTC · 1W	40.36 %^[2]	1.68 vol pts^[1]	-4.44 vol pts^[6]	-1.01 vol pts^[4]	0.04 vol pts^[12]
BTC · 2W	38.80 %^[24]	0.89 vol pts^[7]	-4.31 vol pts^[25]	-0.55 vol pts^[26]	0.01 vol pts^[14]
BTC · 1M	38.47 %^[9]	0.65 vol pts^[8]	-3.63 vol pts^[11]	-0.09 vol pts^[10]	-0.01 vol pts^[16]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
BTC	38.68 % ^[27]	37.82 % ^[28]	40.36 % ^[2]	38.47 % ^[9]	Remained inverted

Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

Asset	Native observation (UTC)	1M minus 1W ATM IV
BTC	2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00	-1.89 vol pts ^[29]
BTC	2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00	-0.86 vol pts ^[30]
BTC	2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00	-0.78 vol pts ^[31]
BTC	2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00	-2.29 vol pts ^[32]

BTC RR25 curve

Figure sources: ^[40] ^[41] ^[42] ^[43] ^[44] ^[45] ^[46]

BTC BF25 curve

Figure sources: ^[47] ^[48] ^[49] ^[50] ^[51] ^[52] ^[53]

BF25 change by tenor

Figure evidence: ^[12] ^[14] ^[16]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next snapshot	Observed condition	Comparison period	Evidence
BTC · 1W ATM implied volatility	09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 40.36 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 40.36 % and strictly above 38.68 %. Prior level: at or below 38.68 % (prior level).	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[2] ^[27] ^[1]
BTC · 1W 25-delta risk reversal	09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or below -4.44 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above -4.44 vol pts and strictly below -3.43 vol pts. Prior level: at or above -3.43 vol pts (prior level).	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[6] ^[5] ^[4]
BTC · 1W 25-delta butterfly premium	09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 1.22 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 1.22 vol pts and strictly above 1.18 vol pts. Prior level: at or below 1.18 vol pts (prior level).	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[13] ^[54] ^[12]

Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

Measure	Population	Observed pairs or levels	Requested window	Excluded pair or level endpoints
BTC 1W.atmIv.absolute_move^[3]	rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)	26	2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00	2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

Chaos In Riyadh: Aramco Skyscraper Hit By Missile Strike · Published 2026-11-08T12:27:30+00:00
Chaos In Riyadh: Aramco Skyscraper Hit By Missile Strike · Published 2026-11-08T12:27:30+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

1.68 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV

40.36 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[3] BTC 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile

65.38 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[4] BTC 1W RR25 difference

-1.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[5] BTC 1W RR25

-3.43 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[6] BTC 1W RR25

-4.44 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[7] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

0.89 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[8] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

0.65 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[9] BTC 1M ATM IV

38.47 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[10] BTC 1M RR25 difference

-0.09 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[11] BTC 1M RR25

-3.63 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[12] BTC 1W BF25 difference

0.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[13] BTC 1W BF25

1.22 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[14] BTC 2W BF25 difference

0.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[15] BTC 2W BF25

1.14 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[16] BTC 1M BF25 difference

-0.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[17] BTC 1M BF25

1.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[18] BTC spotPrice percentage change

-0.17 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[19] BTC rv7d.recomputed

38.37 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[20] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

1.99 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[21] BTC btcVol.ds30

43.71 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[22] BTC btcVol.bviv

42.63 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[23] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

-1.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[24] BTC 2W ATM IV

38.80 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[25] BTC 2W RR25

-4.31 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[26] BTC 2W RR25 difference

-0.55 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[27] BTC 1W ATM IV

38.68 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[28] BTC 1M ATM IV

37.82 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[29] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.89 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[30] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[31] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.78 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[32] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-2.29 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[40] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[41] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[42] Source

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Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

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[43] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[44] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[45] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[46] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[47] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[48] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[49] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[50] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[51] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[52] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[53] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[54] BTC 1W BF25

1.18 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Source data (JSON) · Surface metrics (CSV) · Evidence (JSON) · Report (JSON) · Report archive

What the evidence says

Qualifications and limits

Verified market snapshot

Weekly versus monthly curve

BTC RR25 curve

BTC BF25 curve

BF25 change by tenor

What to watch next

Source reporting

[1] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV

[3] BTC 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile

[4] BTC 1W RR25 difference

[5] BTC 1W RR25

[6] BTC 1W RR25

[7] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

[8] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

[9] BTC 1M ATM IV

[10] BTC 1M RR25 difference

[11] BTC 1M RR25

[12] BTC 1W BF25 difference

[13] BTC 1W BF25

[14] BTC 2W BF25 difference

[15] BTC 2W BF25

[16] BTC 1M BF25 difference

[17] BTC 1M BF25

[18] BTC spotPrice percentage change

[19] BTC rv7d.recomputed

[20] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

[21] BTC btcVol.ds30

[22] BTC btcVol.bviv

[23] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

[24] BTC 2W ATM IV

[25] BTC 2W RR25

[26] BTC 2W RR25 difference

[27] BTC 1W ATM IV

[28] BTC 1M ATM IV

[29] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[30] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[31] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[32] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[40] Source

[41] Source

[42] Source

[43] Source

[44] Source

[45] Source

[46] Source

[47] Source

[48] Source

[49] Source

[50] Source

[51] Source

[52] Source

[53] Source

[54] BTC 1W BF25

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