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By Sean Gordon

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Market snapshot

BTC 1W skew relief outpaces ATM easing

BTC 1W options show reduced downside asymmetry alongside softer implied volatility. RR25 changed by +1.72 vol points [1], while ATM IV changed by -1.14 vol points [2]. The adjustment eases defensive pricing without eliminating the negative skew or the premium of 1W ATM volatility over 1M.

The reading

What the evidence says

BTC 1W options became less defensive over the matched daily interval. RR25, the call-versus-put IV asymmetry, changed by +1.72 vol points [1] to -2.72 vol points [3]. Its absolute daily move ranked at 96.2nd percentile [4] within the rolling historical comparison, 26 observations (observed sampling; 12 Oct 2026–08 Nov 2026) [4]. Meanwhile, 1W ATM, or at-the-money, IV changed by -1.14 vol points [2] to 39.22% [5]. The distinction matters: downside asymmetry eased, but negative 1W RR25 still indicates a put premium over calls.

BTC ATM easing was strongest at 1W, while skew relief extended through the nearer tenors. Over the same daily interval, 2W ATM IV changed by -0.60 vol points [6], and 1M ATM IV changed by -0.36 vol points [7] to 38.11% [8]. The current 1W ATM level therefore remains above 1M ATM despite the larger 1W decline. BTC 2W RR25 changed by +1.46 vol points [9] to -2.85 vol points [10], while 1M RR25 changed by +0.73 vol points [11] to -2.90 vol points [12]. This supports broader nearer-tenor skew relief, rather than an adjustment confined to 1W.

BTC butterfly premiums also narrowed beyond 1W, although the 1M adjustment was smaller. BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM, rather than directional bias or absolute wing IV. Over the matched daily interval, 1W BF25 changed by -0.24 vol points [13] to 0.98 vol points [14]; 2W BF25 changed by -0.17 vol points [15] to 0.97 vol points [16]. BTC 1M BF25 changed by -0.03 vol points [17] to 1.09 vol points [18]. Thus, the butterfly adjustment was stronger at 1W and 2W, while the separate 1M RR25 improvement shows that directional repricing reached further than the strongest ATM easing.

BTC 1W options easing occurred despite a spot return of -1.12% [19] over the matched daily interval. Trailing weekly realized volatility, recomputed from retained minute prices, was 43.16% [20]; forward 1W ATM IV minus that realized measure was -3.94 vol points [21]. This qualifies the easing as an options repricing during spot weakness, rather than evidence that recent realized fluctuations had disappeared. Broader BTC implied-volatility measures also differed: model-free DS30 was 43.11 vol points [22], BVIV was 41.99 vol points [23], and BVIV minus DS30 was -1.12 vol points [24]. These independently timed benchmarks do not measure the same object as 1W ATM IV. Current-window reporting from Cointelegraph described earlier ETF withdrawals, alongside reported Strategy purchases; that mixed demand context does not identify the cause of the 1W skew adjustment.

Qualifications and limits

  • BTC 9M RR25 changed by -0.03 vol points [25], a small opposing move that limits any claim of uniform skew relief across tenors.
  • The historical rank describes absolute move magnitude within observed eligible samples, with gaps and selection retained; it does not establish statistical significance or joint unusualness. Options, news and benchmark observations have distinct clocks, and DS30 historical ingestion timing is unverified.
  • Trailing realized volatility uses adjacent minute log returns with calendar-day annualization and complete measured coverage. Same-series recomputation does not independently verify prices; forward 1W IV and trailing realized volatility cover different periods, so their spread establishes neither a forecast nor a trading edge.
Further qualifications
  • Reported fund withdrawals and corporate purchases concern earlier activity and lack primary flow reconciliation here. They cannot establish net institutional demand or explain the measured tenor changes.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
BTC · 1W39.22 %[5]-1.14 vol pts[2]-2.72 vol pts[3]1.72 vol pts[1]-0.24 vol pts[13]
BTC · 2W38.20 %[26]-0.60 vol pts[6]-2.85 vol pts[10]1.46 vol pts[9]-0.17 vol pts[15]
BTC · 1M38.11 %[8]-0.36 vol pts[7]-2.90 vol pts[12]0.73 vol pts[11]-0.03 vol pts[17]
BTC · 9M40.04 %[27]-0.08 vol pts[28]-2.07 vol pts[29]-0.03 vol pts[25]0.06 vol pts[30]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
BTC40.36 % [31]38.47 % [32]39.22 % [5]38.11 % [8]Remained inverted
Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

AssetNative observation (UTC)1M minus 1W ATM IV
BTC2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00-1.11 vol pts [33]
BTC2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00-1.89 vol pts [34]
BTC2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00-0.86 vol pts [35]
BTC2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00-0.78 vol pts [36]

BTC ATM IV term structure

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BTC ATM IV term structure
Current and comparison are exact native endpoint observations. Tenors are equally spaced categories; connecting segments do not express elapsed-time slopes. Missing points remain gaps.

BTC observed 1M minus 1W ATM IV

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BTC observed 1M minus 1W ATM IV
Observed 1M-minus-1W ATM IV copied from existing spread-calculator receipts. Native time is proportional; missing days are not filled. Negative values indicate inversion; zero is flat.

BTC trailing 7d variance: entering and leaving returns

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BTC trailing 7d variance: entering and leaving returns
Replayed same-series squared-minute arithmetic; not independent price validation. No fill, interpolation or gap bridging. Effects add in annualized squared volatility points, not RV percentage points. Current and previous coverage: 100.0% / 100.0%. The denominator effect is explicit; Net is the sum of the three effects. Selected by largest absolute variance change within the qualified common native interval; configured asset order resolves ties.
Full original chart detail

BTC RR25 curve

BTC RR25 curve
Current · 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58]

BTC: size of daily changes in the 1-week call-minus-put volatility premium (RR25)

BTC: size of daily changes in the 1-week call-minus-put volatility premium (RR25) ranked observed sample
Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 1.72 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. RR25 is 25-delta call implied volatility minus 25-delta put implied volatility. n=26; 2026-10-12 to 2026-11-08; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

[4]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor
BTC · 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [13] [15] [17]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
BTC · 1W ATM implied volatility10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below 39.22 % (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above 39.22 % and strictly below 40.36 %.
Prior level: at or above 40.36 % (prior level).		08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[5] [31] [2]
BTC · 1W 25-delta risk reversal10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or above -2.72 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly below -2.72 vol pts and strictly above -4.44 vol pts.
Prior level: at or below -4.44 vol pts (prior level).		08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[3] [59] [1]
BTC · 9M 25-delta risk reversal10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below -2.07 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above -2.07 vol pts and strictly below -2.04 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above -2.04 vol pts (prior level).		08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[29] [83] [25]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
BTC 1W.rr25.absolute_move[4]rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)262026-10-09T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:002026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] BTC 1W RR25 difference

1.72 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[2] BTC 1W ATM IV difference

-1.14 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[3] BTC 1W RR25

-2.72 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[4] BTC 1W RR25 absolute move percentile

96.15 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[5] BTC 1W ATM IV

39.22 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[6] BTC 2W ATM IV difference

-0.60 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[7] BTC 1M ATM IV difference

-0.36 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[8] BTC 1M ATM IV

38.11 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[9] BTC 2W RR25 difference

1.46 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[10] BTC 2W RR25

-2.85 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[11] BTC 1M RR25 difference

0.73 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[12] BTC 1M RR25

-2.90 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[13] BTC 1W BF25 difference

-0.24 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[14] BTC 1W BF25

0.98 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[15] BTC 2W BF25 difference

-0.17 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[16] BTC 2W BF25

0.97 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[17] BTC 1M BF25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[18] BTC 1M BF25

1.09 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[19] BTC spotPrice percentage change

-1.12 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[20] BTC rv7d.recomputed

43.16 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[21] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-3.94 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[22] BTC btcVol.ds30

43.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[23] BTC btcVol.bviv

41.99 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[24] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30

-1.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[25] BTC 9M RR25 difference

-0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[26] BTC 2W ATM IV

38.20 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[27] BTC 9M ATM IV

40.04 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[28] BTC 9M ATM IV difference

-0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[29] BTC 9M RR25

-2.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[30] BTC 9M BF25 difference

0.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[31] BTC 1W ATM IV

40.36 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[32] BTC 1M ATM IV

38.47 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[33] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.11 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[34] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.89 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[35] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.86 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[36] BTC 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.78 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[52] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[53] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[54] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[55] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[56] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[57] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[58] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[59] BTC 1W RR25

-4.44 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[83] BTC 9M RR25

-2.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Source data (JSON) · Surface metrics (CSV) · Evidence (JSON) · Report (JSON) · Report archive

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