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By Sean Gordon

Published

Market snapshot

ETH nearer-tenor RR25 deepens downside bias

ETH nearer-tenor skew deepened an existing downside bias while ATM volatility barely changed. The adjustment extended through 1M and included 3M, but relief at 2M and longer maturities limits a uniform bearish interpretation. Higher nearer-tenor butterfly premiums add a separate signal of greater wing premiums relative to ATM.

The reading

What the evidence says

ETH options repriced call-versus-put asymmetry more clearly than overall volatility over the crypto comparison window. RR25 measures that asymmetry: ETH 1W RR25 changed by -0.38 vol points [1] to -6.04 vol points [2], deepening an existing downside bias. The adjustment extended beyond 1W: ETH 2W RR25 changed by -0.45 vol points [3] to -5.81 vol points [4], and ETH 1M RR25 changed by -0.45 vol points [5] to -4.06 vol points [6]. ETH 3M RR25 also changed by -0.17 vol points [7] to -2.55 vol points [8]. These negative destinations deepen existing put-over-call premiums; they do not mark a newly restored downside bias.

ETH butterfly pricing reinforces the nearer-tenor adjustment without establishing further directional bias. BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM, meaning at-the-money implied volatility. ETH 2W BF25 changed by +0.12 vol points [9] to 2.04 vol points [10]. The increase extended to ETH 1W BF25, which changed by +0.04 vol points [11], and ETH 1M BF25, which changed by +0.07 vol points [12]. By comparison, ETH 1M ATM IV changed by +0.05 vol points [13] to 52.43% [14]. Thus ETH 1M skew and butterfly premiums adjusted despite little movement in ETH 1M ATM IV; repricing was neither confined to ETH 1W nor a uniform rise in volatility.

The ETH skew adjustment occurred alongside a positive spot return of +0.20% [15] over the crypto comparison window, so deeper ETH 1W and 1M downside asymmetry did not require a contemporaneous spot decline. ETH trailing realized volatility was 49.75% [16], recomputed from canonical minute log returns with complete observed coverage and calendar-day annualization. ETH forward 1W ATM IV stood above trailing realized volatility by +2.60 vol points [17]. Historical magnitude also tempers an alarmist reading: the ETH 1M RR25 absolute comparison-window move ranked at 46.7th percentile [18] within its rolling-window eligible observations, 30 observations (observed sampling; 08 Oct 2026–06 Nov 2026) [18]. That rank concerns move magnitude, not the downside level or the rarity of the combined tenor pattern.

Qualifications and limits

  • ETH 2M RR25 changed by +0.07 vol points [19], while ETH 9M RR25 changed by +0.15 vol points [20]. Both became less negative, interrupting the extension of downside repricing across maturities.
  • Historical ranks use eligible observed samples with gaps and source selection retained; they do not estimate population rarity. Native observation clocks and retrieval clocks differ, and endpoint comparisons do not establish the intervening path.
  • Forward ETH 1W implied volatility and trailing realized volatility cover different periods. Their spread describes those measurements and establishes neither a forecast nor a trading edge.
Further qualifications
  • ETH RR25 and BF25 changes describe quoted asymmetry and relative wing premiums. They do not identify investor positioning, absolute wing IV changes or a causal news catalyst.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenorATM IVATM IV changeRR25RR25 changeBF25 change
ETH · 1W52.35 %[21]0.05 vol pts[22]-6.04 vol pts[2]-0.38 vol pts[1]0.04 vol pts[11]
ETH · 2W52.10 %[23]0.03 vol pts[24]-5.81 vol pts[4]-0.45 vol pts[3]0.12 vol pts[9]
ETH · 1M52.43 %[14]0.05 vol pts[13]-4.06 vol pts[6]-0.45 vol pts[5]0.07 vol pts[12]
ETH · 2M52.73 %[25]0.20 vol pts[26]-2.84 vol pts[27]0.07 vol pts[19]-0.01 vol pts[28]
ETH · 3M52.86 %[29]0.33 vol pts[30]-2.55 vol pts[8]-0.17 vol pts[7]0.02 vol pts[31]
ETH · 6M53.29 %[32]0.19 vol pts[33]-1.43 vol pts[34]0.06 vol pts[35]0.00 vol pts[36]
ETH · 9M53.67 %[37]0.18 vol pts[38]-0.79 vol pts[39]0.15 vol pts[20]-0.01 vol pts[40]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
AssetPrior 1WPrior 1MCurrent 1WCurrent 1MCurve regime
ETH52.30 % [41]52.38 % [42]52.35 % [21]52.43 % [14]Remained upward sloping
Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

AssetNative observation (UTC)1M minus 1W ATM IV
ETH2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00+0.08 vol pts [43]
ETH2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00+0.08 vol pts [44]
ETH2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00-0.56 vol pts [45]
ETH2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00+1.23 vol pts [46]

ETH RR25 curve

ETH RR25 curve
Current · 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC. Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected.

Figure sources: [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53]

ETH: size of daily changes in the 1-month call-minus-put volatility premium (RR25)

ETH: size of daily changes in the 1-month call-minus-put volatility premium (RR25) ranked observed sample
Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 0.45 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. RR25 is 25-delta call implied volatility minus 25-delta put implied volatility. n=30; 2026-10-08 to 2026-11-06; source-selected observed sample, no fill.

[18]

BF25 change by tenor

BF25 change by tenor
ETH · 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h. Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps.

Figure evidence: [11] [9] [12]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story componentNext snapshotObserved conditionComparison periodEvidence
ETH · 1W 25-delta risk reversal08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below -6.04 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above -6.04 vol pts and strictly below -5.66 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above -5.66 vol pts (prior level).		06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[2] [61] [1]
ETH · 2W 25-delta risk reversal08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below -5.81 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above -5.81 vol pts and strictly below -5.36 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above -5.36 vol pts (prior level).		06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[4] [65] [3]
ETH · 1M 25-delta risk reversal08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTCCurrent level: at or below -4.06 vol pts (current level).
Between current and prior: strictly above -4.06 vol pts and strictly below -3.61 vol pts.
Prior level: at or above -3.61 vol pts (prior level).		06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC[6] [67] [5]
Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

MeasurePopulationObserved pairs or levelsRequested windowExcluded pair or level endpoints
ETH 1M.rr25.absolute_move[18]rolling 30 calendar days (UTC)302026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00None

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] ETH 1W RR25 difference

-0.38 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[2] ETH 1W RR25

-6.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[3] ETH 2W RR25 difference

-0.45 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[4] ETH 2W RR25

-5.81 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[5] ETH 1M RR25 difference

-0.45 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[6] ETH 1M RR25

-4.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[7] ETH 3M RR25 difference

-0.17 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[8] ETH 3M RR25

-2.55 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[9] ETH 2W BF25 difference

0.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[10] ETH 2W BF25

2.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[11] ETH 1W BF25 difference

0.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[12] ETH 1M BF25 difference

0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[13] ETH 1M ATM IV difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[14] ETH 1M ATM IV

52.43 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[15] ETH spotPrice percentage change

0.20 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[16] ETH rv7d.recomputed

49.75 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[17] ETH 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

2.60 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[18] ETH 1M RR25 absolute move percentile

46.67 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[19] ETH 2M RR25 difference

0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[20] ETH 9M RR25 difference

0.15 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[21] ETH 1W ATM IV

52.35 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[22] ETH 1W ATM IV difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[23] ETH 2W ATM IV

52.10 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[24] ETH 2W ATM IV difference

0.03 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[25] ETH 2M ATM IV

52.73 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[26] ETH 2M ATM IV difference

0.20 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[27] ETH 2M RR25

-2.84 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[28] ETH 2M BF25 difference

-0.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[29] ETH 3M ATM IV

52.86 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[30] ETH 3M ATM IV difference

0.33 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[31] ETH 3M BF25 difference

0.02 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[32] ETH 6M ATM IV

53.29 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[33] ETH 6M ATM IV difference

0.19 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[34] ETH 6M RR25

-1.43 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[35] ETH 6M RR25 difference

0.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[36] ETH 6M BF25 difference

0.00 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[37] ETH 9M ATM IV

53.67 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[38] ETH 9M ATM IV difference

0.18 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[39] ETH 9M RR25

-0.79 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[40] ETH 9M BF25 difference

-0.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[41] ETH 1W ATM IV

52.30 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[42] ETH 1M ATM IV

52.38 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[43] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[44] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[45] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.56 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[46] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

1.23 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T18:11:49.388450+00:00

[47] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[48] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[49] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[50] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[51] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[52] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[53] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[61] ETH 1W RR25

-5.66 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[65] ETH 2W RR25

-5.36 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

[67] ETH 1M RR25

-3.61 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00

Source data (JSON) · Surface metrics (CSV) · Evidence (JSON) · Report (JSON) · Report archive

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