Daily research · 8 Nov 2026

Published 8 Nov 2026, 18:09 UTC

Market snapshot 8 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

ETH ATM curve returns to inversion

ETH’s ATM volatility curve returned to inversion as the 1W increase outpaced the 1M rise. The 1M-minus-1W spread reached -2.07 vol points ^[1], a change of -2.15 vol points ^[2]. This repricing puts greater implied volatility at the front of the curve, while opposing RR25 changes distinguish weekly downside asymmetry from monthly skew relief.

The reading

What the evidence says

ETH’s return to ATM inversion develops an interrupted curve story: earlier inversion gave way to near-flat positive readings before the latest negative spread. Over the latest daily comparison, the 1M-minus-1W spread moved from +0.08 vol points ^[3] to -2.07 vol points ^[1]. ATM means at-the-money implied volatility. ETH 1W ATM IV changed by +3.27 vol points ^[4] to 55.62% ^[5], while 1M ATM IV changed by +1.12 vol points ^[6] to 53.55% ^[7]. The stronger 1W increase explains the inversion and locates the steepest ATM repricing toward the front.

ETH’s smile changes distinguish weekly downside asymmetry from monthly relief. RR25 measures call-versus-put IV asymmetry: ETH 1W RR25 changed by -0.37 vol points ^[8], from -6.04 vol points ^[9] to -6.41 vol points ^[10], deepening an existing downside bias. ETH 1M RR25 instead changed by +0.74 vol points ^[11], from -4.06 vol points ^[12] to -3.32 vol points ^[13], remaining negative but becoming less put-biased. BF25, the average wing IV premium over ATM, also diverged by tenor: ETH 1W BF25 changed by +0.16 vol points ^[14] to 2.16 vol points ^[15], whereas 2W BF25 changed by -0.13 vol points ^[16] to 1.91 vol points ^[17] and 1M BF25 changed by -0.10 vol points ^[18] to 1.79 vol points ^[19]. These modest butterfly adjustments describe relative wing premiums, not absolute wing IV or a shared directional shift.

ETH spot changed by -0.43% ^[20] over the aligned daily comparison. Trailing realized volatility over the measured weekly window was 49.46% ^[21], calculated from canonical minute returns; forward 1W ATM IV exceeded that trailing measure by +6.16 vol points ^[22]. This places the ETH 1W implied repricing alongside a modest spot decline without establishing an unusually volatile realized regime or an options valuation edge. Current Gulf reporting from ZeroHedge relayed administrative-building damage and maritime incident claims. Such uncertainty offers a possible near-term risk channel relevant to ETH 1W volatility, but verified energy-supply disruption and an event-linked options response remain unestablished.

Qualifications and limits

ETH 2W ATM IV also changed by +2.23 vol points ^[23] over the same daily interval. The ATM increase therefore extends beyond 1W, qualifying any reading of an isolated weekly repricing.
Exact daily curve cutoffs establish endpoint changes, not intraday persistence or historical rarity. News publication and capture clocks differ from the options comparison and do not establish causation.
Forward implied volatility and trailing realized volatility cover different periods. The realized measure uses complete observed minute returns and calendar-day annualization; same-series recomputation does not independently validate the underlying prices.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
ETH · 1W	55.62 %^[5]	3.27 vol pts^[4]	-6.41 vol pts^[10]	-0.37 vol pts^[8]	0.16 vol pts^[14]
ETH · 2W	54.33 %^[24]	2.23 vol pts^[23]	-5.17 vol pts^[25]	0.64 vol pts^[26]	-0.13 vol pts^[16]
ETH · 1M	53.55 %^[7]	1.12 vol pts^[6]	-3.32 vol pts^[13]	0.74 vol pts^[11]	-0.10 vol pts^[18]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
ETH	52.35 % ^[27]	52.43 % ^[28]	55.62 % ^[5]	53.55 % ^[7]	Upward sloping → Inverted

Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

Asset	Native observation (UTC)	1M minus 1W ATM IV
ETH	2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00	-2.07 vol pts ^[29]
ETH	2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00	+0.08 vol pts ^[30]
ETH	2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00	+0.08 vol pts ^[31]
ETH	2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00	-0.56 vol pts ^[32]

ETH RR25 curve

Figure sources: ^[33] ^[34] ^[35] ^[36] ^[37] ^[38] ^[39]

ETH BF25 curve

Figure sources: ^[40] ^[41] ^[42] ^[43] ^[44] ^[45] ^[46]

BF25 change by tenor

Figure evidence: ^[14] ^[16] ^[18]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next snapshot	Observed condition	Comparison period	Evidence
ETH · 1M 25-delta risk reversal	09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above -3.32 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below -3.32 vol pts and strictly above -4.06 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -4.06 vol pts (prior level).	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[13] ^[12] ^[11]
ETH · 2W ATM implied volatility	09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 54.33 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 54.33 % and strictly above 52.10 %. Prior level: at or below 52.10 % (prior level).	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[24] ^[55] ^[23]
ETH · 1M ATM implied volatility	09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 53.55 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 53.55 % and strictly above 52.43 %. Prior level: at or below 52.43 % (prior level).	07 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[7] ^[28] ^[6]

Source reporting

Chaos In Riyadh: Aramco Skyscraper Hit By Missile Strike · Published 2026-11-08T12:27:30+00:00
Chaos In Riyadh: Aramco Skyscraper Hit By Missile Strike · Published 2026-11-08T12:27:30+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-2.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[2] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread difference

-2.15 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[3] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[4] ETH 1W ATM IV difference

3.27 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[5] ETH 1W ATM IV

55.62 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[6] ETH 1M ATM IV difference

1.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[7] ETH 1M ATM IV

53.55 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[8] ETH 1W RR25 difference

-0.37 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[9] ETH 1W RR25

-6.04 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[10] ETH 1W RR25

-6.41 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[11] ETH 1M RR25 difference

0.74 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[12] ETH 1M RR25

-4.06 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[13] ETH 1M RR25

-3.32 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[14] ETH 1W BF25 difference

0.16 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[15] ETH 1W BF25

2.16 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[16] ETH 2W BF25 difference

-0.13 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[17] ETH 2W BF25

1.91 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[18] ETH 1M BF25 difference

-0.10 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[19] ETH 1M BF25

1.79 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[20] ETH spotPrice percentage change

-0.43 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[21] ETH rv7d.recomputed

49.46 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[22] ETH 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

6.16 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[23] ETH 2W ATM IV difference

2.23 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[24] ETH 2W ATM IV

54.33 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[25] ETH 2W RR25

-5.17 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[26] ETH 2W RR25 difference

0.64 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[27] ETH 1W ATM IV

52.35 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[28] ETH 1M ATM IV

52.43 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

[29] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-2.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[30] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[31] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[32] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.56 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:40:18.103193+00:00

[33] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[34] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[35] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[36] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[37] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[38] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[39] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[40] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[41] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[42] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[43] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[44] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[45] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[46] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[55] ETH 2W ATM IV

52.10 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00

Source data (JSON) · Surface metrics (CSV) · Evidence (JSON) · Report (JSON) · Report archive

What the evidence says

Qualifications and limits

Verified market snapshot

Weekly versus monthly curve

ETH RR25 curve

ETH BF25 curve

BF25 change by tenor

What to watch next

Source reporting

[1] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[2] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread difference

[3] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[4] ETH 1W ATM IV difference

[5] ETH 1W ATM IV

[6] ETH 1M ATM IV difference

[7] ETH 1M ATM IV

[8] ETH 1W RR25 difference

[9] ETH 1W RR25

[10] ETH 1W RR25

[11] ETH 1M RR25 difference

[12] ETH 1M RR25

[13] ETH 1M RR25

[14] ETH 1W BF25 difference

[15] ETH 1W BF25

[16] ETH 2W BF25 difference

[17] ETH 2W BF25

[18] ETH 1M BF25 difference

[19] ETH 1M BF25

[20] ETH spotPrice percentage change

[21] ETH rv7d.recomputed

[22] ETH 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

[23] ETH 2W ATM IV difference

[24] ETH 2W ATM IV

[25] ETH 2W RR25

[26] ETH 2W RR25 difference

[27] ETH 1W ATM IV

[28] ETH 1M ATM IV

[29] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[30] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[31] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[32] ETH 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[33] Source

[34] Source

[35] Source

[36] Source

[37] Source

[38] Source

[39] Source

[40] Source

[41] Source

[42] Source

[43] Source

[44] Source

[45] Source

[46] Source

[55] ETH 2W ATM IV

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