01 · Market read
The day across the three live Derivasys markets.
All three major coins saw lower one-week ATM IV, but Bitcoin’s 6.73-point decline and Ether’s 6.05-point decline far exceeded Solana’s 2.14-point decline, creating a 4.59-point dispersion in daily changes.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 17.72 vol points; absolute gap change +1.94 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 3 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 4.59 vol points. Stored daily changes across 3 assets.
SOL stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.91 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 3 assets at this report cutoff.
This is a comparison, not a pooled surface: each asset keeps its own forwards, expiries, SVI fit and realised-volatility history.
Cross-sectional thesis
Where the complex is diverging.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 17.72 vol pts; daily one-week ATM IV changes span 4.59 vol pts across the complex.
ETH has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +2.31 vol points; BTC has the lowest at +2.01 vol points. The range between these spreads is 0.30 vol points.
Aligned 24-hour spot correlations: BTC/ETH 0.85 (19 observations).
1W ATM IV change
+3.91 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-16.46 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+1.67 points from the group median
Relative-value rankings
Leaders and laggards across the same cutoff.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | SOL · 54.33 · up 1 | ETH · 53.07 · down 1 | BTC · 36.61 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | SOL · -2.14 | ETH · -6.05 | BTC · -6.73 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | ETH · 2.31 | BTC · 2.01 | — |
| Highest 1W RR25 | SOL · 1.11 | ETH · -0.56 · up 1 | BTC · -1.10 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | BTC · -1.10 · up 1 | ETH · -0.56 · down 1 | SOL · 1.11 |
| 24h spot performance | BTC · -0.87 | ETH · -1.07 | — |
02 · Macro and crypto diary
Macro and crypto context
16 September 2026
One-week ATM IV declined across major coins, with Bitcoin and Ether falling substantially more than Solana.
Macro
NPR reported expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise its benchmark interest rate.
Crypto
Decrypt reported combined Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP ETF outflows of roughly $593 million.
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against VIX and SPX.
The benchmark comparison is separately timestamped to the latest completed US session; it does not replace the intraday crypto surface cutoffs above.
BTC and ETH and SOL 30-day implied volatility remained 2.1–3.2 times VIX, while short-window equity correlations remained mixed.
| Asset | 30d ATM IV | VIX spread | IV / VIX | Reported crypto RV | Reported SPX RV | RV spread percentile | 30-session correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 36.92% | +19.72 vol pts | 2.15× | 37.09% | 9.06% | percentile rank 50.0% | +0.231 |
| ETH | 52.73% | +35.53 vol pts | 3.07× | 41.21% | 9.06% | percentile rank 16.9% | +0.124 |
| SOL | 54.86% | +37.66 vol pts | 3.19× | 73.81% | 9.06% | percentile rank 51.3% | +0.325 |
BTC: RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
ETH: RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
SOL: RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
As of 15 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
03 · Cross-asset scorecard
Implied volatility, realised volatility and skew.
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across common standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 36.61% / -6.73 | 35.85% / -2.64 | 37.72% / -1.67 | 38.98% / -1.04 |
| ETH | 53.07% / -6.05 | 51.92% / -2.01 | 53.66% / -0.56 | 54.87% / -0.28 |
| SOL | 54.33% / -2.14 | 54.20% / -1.27 | 54.67% / +0.19 | Unavailable |
05 · Constituent evidence
Audit the independently published source artifacts.
16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC
Read the BTC report16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC
Read the ETH report16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC
Read the SOL reportEvidence, source data and methodology
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
Original edition evidence follows unchanged. Its BF slots retain the original full fly25 or unverified basis; these receipts do not validate canonical BF25 history or ranks.
Download original published edition and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: c7d29a717788e2d1d088d5093cf4b1d5cf7ed2957ebd548e5e8600b0e74d8673.
Major Coins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Major-coin one-week ATM IV fell across Bitcoin, Ether and Solana at the 16:30 UTC cutoff. Bitcoin one-week ATM IV fell 6.73 volatility points to 36.61%, Ether one-week ATM IV fell 6.05 volatility points to 53.07%, and Solana one-week ATM IV fell 2.14 volatility points to 54.33%. The common decline nevertheless widened relative volatility levels between Solana and Bitcoin to 17.72 volatility points.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 36.61% · Δ -6.73 vol pts; ETH 1W ATM IV 53.07% · Δ -6.05 vol pts; SOL 1W ATM IV 54.33% · Δ -2.14 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -1.10 vol pts · Δ -1.59 vol pts; ETH 1W RR25 -0.56 vol pts · Δ +0.73 vol pts; SOL 1W RR25 1.11 vol pts · Δ +0.29 vol pts
IV level gap: 1W ATM IV level gap 17.72 vol pts (SOL 54.33% versus BTC 36.61%) · SOL minus BTC spread Δ +4.59 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 36.61% · Δ -6.73 vol ptspercentile rank 95.2% by absolute move · full history (n=145)
ETH 1W ATM IV 53.07% · Δ -6.05 vol ptspercentile rank 86.2% by absolute move · full history (n=29)
SOL 1W ATM IV 54.33% · Δ -2.14 vol pts
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -1.10 vol pts · Δ -1.59 vol ptspercentile rank 82.1% by absolute move · full history (n=145)
ETH 1W RR25 -0.56 vol pts · Δ +0.73 vol ptspercentile rank 32.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25)
SOL 1W RR25 1.11 vol pts · Δ +0.29 vol pts
Wings
BTC Unavailable
ETH Unavailable
SOL Unavailable
IV versus RV
BTC Unavailable
ETH Unavailable
SOL Unavailable
Unavailable readings: BTC Wings; BTC IV versus RV; ETH Wings; ETH IV versus RV; SOL Wings; SOL IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: BTC 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; ETH 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC; SOL 16 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 95.2% by absolute move · full history (n=145)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 82.1% by absolute move · full history (n=145)
ETH 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 86.2% by absolute move · full history (n=29)
ETH 1W RR25: percentile rank 32.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25)
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| ETH | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| SOL | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
ETH · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
SOL · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical SOL index coverage for 7d is incomplete: expected 10080 one-minute returns, found 10042 (99.6230% coverage); returns spanning missing minutes are excluded Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
A derived publication with no duplicated market data.
The report is assembled at request time from the immutable BTC, ETH and SOL daily-report artifacts for the same UTC report date. It is omitted unless all three exist. Cross-asset averages are descriptive and equal-weighted; no attempt is made to combine distinct volatility surfaces into a single fit.