SOL leads 1W ATM repricing; ETH downside skew deepens

DERIVASYS Focused research note SOL leads 1W ATM repricing; ETH downside skew deepens Crypto volatility repriced unevenly: SOL led the 1W ATM increase, while ETH showed the clearest deepening of existing 1W downside skew. BTC’s 1W skew eased despite higher ATM volatility. Matched 1M comparisons show that ATM repricing was strongest at 1W, but skew adjustments extended beyond that tenor; SOL’s declining BF25 describes a narrower relative butterfly premium, not falling absolute wing volatility. Derivasys Research Report date 05 Nov 2026 Current snapshot 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Coverage BTC, ETH, SOL Comparison snapshot 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC The reading What the evidence says SOL led the 1W ATM repricing over the native daily comparison, rising by +11.42 vol points [1] to 62.13% [2] . BTC’s 1W ATM rose by +5.83 vol points [3] to 40.71% [4] , and ETH’s increased by +5.32 vol points [5] to 53.00% [6] . The matched 1M changes were smaller: BTC increased by +2.43 vol points [7] to 38.42% [8] , ETH by +3.53 vol points [9] to 52.44% [10] , and SOL by +0.90 vol points [11] to 54.36% [12] . SOL’s ordered ATM endpoints establish an inverted curve: its 1W reading exceeds its 2W reading of 55.64% [13] , which exceeds its 1M reading. The 2W ATM increase of +2.86 vol points [14] also shows that the adjustment was not confined to 1W. ETH’s 1M absolute daily ATM change ranked at 98.2nd percentile [15] within its eligible full captured history, supporting attention to the monthly adjustment without establishing unusualness of the joint cross-asset configuration. Directional pricing separates the assets more sharply than the common rise in 1W ATM volatility. BTC’s 1W RR25 improved by +0.59 vol points [16] to -2.19 vol points [17] , easing an existing downside bias. ETH’s already negative 1W RR25 declined by -2.59 vol points [18] to -5.86 vol points [19] , deepening that bias. SOL’s 1W RR25 fell by -2.50 vol points [20] to -0.19 vol points [21] , crossing from positive to slightly negative. Matched 1M RR25 confirms broader BTC relief and ETH downside repricing: BTC improved by +0.65 vol points [22] to -2.43 vol points [23] , while ETH declined by -1.10 vol points [24] to -4.22 vol points [25] . SOL is the tenor exception: its 1M RR25 improved by +0.19 vol points [26] to a still-positive 0.29 vol points [27] . Relative butterfly premiums also diverged. At 1W, BTC BF25 rose by +0.11 vol points [28] to 1.05 vol points [29] , ETH rose by +0.81 vol points [30] to 2.24 vol points [31] , and SOL declined by -0.31 vol points [32] to 1.06 vol points [33] . The same opposing directions extend to 2W: BTC BF25 increased by +0.12 vol points [34] to 1.15 vol points [35] , ETH by +0.37 vol points [36] to 1.88 vol points [37] , while SOL fell by -0.25 vol points [38] to 1.08 vol points [39] . At 1M, ETH BF25 still increased by +0.17 vol points [40] to 1.67 vol points [41] , whereas BTC changed by -0.02 vol points [42] to 1.08 vol points [43] and SOL by -0.03 vol points [44] to 1.47 vol points [45] . Thus ETH’s relative butterfly expansion has broader tenor reach, while SOL’s narrowing is clearest at 1W and 2W. BF25 measures average wing IV relative to ATM; its decline does not establish falling absolute wing IV. Spot losses accompany the 1W ATM increases across the full cohort, but do not explain the divergent smile adjustments. Over the crypto daily interval, BTC spot returned -5.50% [46] , ETH -7.17% [47] , and SOL -6.35% [48] . ETH’s larger spot decline therefore coincided with deeper negative 1W RR25, whereas BTC retained 1W skew relief and SOL combined the largest 1W ATM increase with a narrower relative butterfly premium. On the common trailing weekly RV window, BTC registered 40.76% [49] , ETH 55.48% [50] , and SOL 64.85% [51] . Forward 1W ATM IV minus trailing weekly RV was -0.05 vol points [52] for BTC, -2.48 vol points [53] for ETH, and -2.72 vol points [54] for SOL. The negative spreads qualify any suggestion that the 1W ATM increases alone establish expensive insurance: forward and trailing volatility cover different periods. Separately selected BTC volatility benchmarks were DS30 at 43.72 vol points [55] and BVIV at 42.33 vol points [56] , with BVIV minus DS30 at -1.39 vol points [57] . Their distinct methodologies and intraday selection clocks prevent treating that spread as a matched 1M ATM discrepancy. The news chronology provides a plausible setting for higher 1W ATM volatility, while leaving the asset-specific RR25 and BF25 differences unresolved. Decrypt reported crypto and AI-equity selling before the crypto endpoint. Earlier in the news window, Cointelegraph described miner financing pressure linked to AI expansion. These reports identify possible risk-appetite and financing channels, but neither establishes why SOL’s 1W ATM rose most or why ETH’s 1W downside asymmetry deepened while BTC’s eased. The relevant broader-market qualification is temporal: the earlier completed US close-to-close comparison showed SPX gaining +1.58% [58] and VIX changing by -4.22 index points [59] . Those earlier closes describe a different phase of trading from the later crypto daily endpoint and cannot confirm the reported contemporaneous equity selloff. The central watch remains SOL’s 1W ATM inversion; the supporting watches are the breadth of BTC and ETH RR25 changes and the opposing ETH–SOL BF25 adjustments across matched tenors. Qualifications and limits Crypto changes use native daily endpoints; the broader-market comparison uses the earlier completed US session. Independently selected BTC benchmarks also have distinct source clocks, and DS30’s historical ingestion time is unavailable. Chronology and association do not establish a catalyst or investor positioning. Historical ranks describe selected observed absolute daily changes in separate captured populations, with gaps retained and no filling. They are not population rarity estimates or evidence of joint significance. Forward 1W IV and trailing weekly RV measure different periods. Their spread establishes neither a forecast nor a trading edge; absolute average wing IV also requires a validated calculation beyond BF25 alone. Verified market snapshot Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote. Asset · tenor ATM IV ATM IV change RR25 RR25 change BF25 change BTC · 1W 40.71 % [4] 5.83 vol pts [3] -2.19 vol pts [17] 0.59 vol pts [16] 0.11 vol pts [28] BTC · 2W 38.75 % [60] 3.90 vol pts [61] -2.56 vol pts [62] 0.40 vol pts [63] 0.12 vol pts [34] BTC · 1M 38.42 % [8] 2.43 vol pts [7] -2.43 vol pts [23] 0.65 vol pts [22] -0.02 vol pts [42] ETH · 1W 53.00 % [6] 5.32 vol pts [5] -5.86 vol pts [19] -2.59 vol pts [18] 0.81 vol pts [30] ETH · 2W 52.75 % [64] 4.60 vol pts [65] -4.35 vol pts [66] -1.38 vol pts [67] 0.37 vol pts [36] ETH · 1M 52.44 % [10] 3.53 vol pts [9] -4.22 vol pts [25] -1.10 vol pts [24] 0.17 vol pts [40] SOL · 1W 62.13 % [2] 11.42 vol pts [1] -0.19 vol pts [21] -2.50 vol pts [20] -0.31 vol pts [32] SOL · 2W 55.64 % [13] 2.86 vol pts [14] 0.56 vol pts [68] -0.07 vol pts [69] -0.25 vol pts [38] SOL · 1M 54.36 % [12] 0.90 vol pts [11] 0.29 vol pts [27] 0.19 vol pts [26] -0.03 vol pts [44] Weekly versus monthly curve Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred. Asset Prior 1W Prior 1M Current 1W Current 1M Curve regime BTC 34.88 % [70] 35.99 % [71] 40.71 % [4] 38.42 % [8] Upward sloping → Inverted ETH 47.68 % [72] 48.91 % [73] 53.00 % [6] 52.44 % [10] Upward sloping → Inverted SOL 50.71 % [74] 53.46 % [75] 62.13 % [2] 54.36 % [12] Upward sloping → Inverted Cross-asset RR25 change Cross-asset RR25 change -3.00 vol pts 0.00 vol pts 3.00 vol pts 1W 1W · BTC: 0.59 vol pts 0.59 1W · ETH: -2.59 vol pts -2.59 1W · SOL: -2.50 vol pts -2.50 1M 1M · BTC: 0.65 vol pts 0.65 1M · ETH: -1.10 vol pts -1.10 1M · SOL: 0.19 vol pts 0.19 BTC · ETH · SOL . Matched native endpoints, window and units; changes in volatility points. Figure evidence: [16] [22] [18] [24] [20] [26] 1W ATM IV move comparison 1W ATM IV move comparison -20.00 vol pts 0.00 vol pts 20.00 vol pts BTC BTC · Change: 5.83 vol pts 5.83 ETH ETH · Change: 5.32 vol pts 5.32 SOL SOL · Change: 11.42 vol pts 11.42 Change . Common recorded native interval and eligible cohort only. BF25 change by tenor BF25 change by tenor -0.90 vol pts 0.00 vol pts 0.90 vol pts 1W 1W · BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.11 vol pts 0.11 1W · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.81 vol pts 0.81 1W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.31 vol pts -0.31 2W 2W · BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.12 vol pts 0.12 2W · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.37 vol pts 0.37 2W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.25 vol pts -0.25 1M 1M · BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.02 vol pts -0.02 1M · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: 0.17 vol pts 0.17 1M · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.03 vol pts -0.03 BTC · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · ETH · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h . Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps. Figure evidence: [28] [34] [42] [30] [36] [40] [32] [38] [44] What to watch next Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast. Story component Next snapshot Observed condition Comparison period Evidence ETH · 1W 25-delta risk reversal 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Current level: at or below -5.86 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above -5.86 vol pts and strictly below -3.27 vol pts. Prior level: at or above -3.27 vol pts (prior level). 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC [19] [116] [18] BTC · 1W 25-delta risk reversal 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Current level: at or above -2.19 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below -2.19 vol pts and strictly above -2.78 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -2.78 vol pts (prior level). 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC [17] [76] [16] SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Current level: at or below -0.19 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above -0.19 vol pts and strictly below 2.31 vol pts. Prior level: at or above 2.31 vol pts (prior level). 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC [21] [159] [20] Historical sampling methodology Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree. Measure Population Observed pairs or levels Requested window Excluded pair or level endpoints ETH 1M.atmIv.absolute_move [15] full captured history 56 2026-09-05T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00 2026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 Source reporting Bitcoin Erases Election Rally as AI Stocks Plunge, $428 Million in Crypto Longs Get Wiped Out · Published 2026-11-05T16:29:11+00:00 Riot shares surge on $28B AI lease as Hut 8 sinks on revenue miss · Published 2026-11-04T18:47:56+00:00 BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points. Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff. Source notes [1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference 11.42 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [2] SOL 1W ATM IV 62.13 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [3] BTC 1W ATM IV difference 5.83 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [4] BTC 1W ATM IV 40.71 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [5] ETH 1W ATM IV difference 5.32 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [6] ETH 1W ATM IV 53.00 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [7] BTC 1M ATM IV difference 2.43 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [8] BTC 1M ATM IV 38.42 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [9] ETH 1M ATM IV difference 3.53 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [10] ETH 1M ATM IV 52.44 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [11] SOL 1M ATM IV difference 0.90 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [12] SOL 1M ATM IV 54.36 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [13] SOL 2W ATM IV 55.64 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [14] SOL 2W ATM IV difference 2.86 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [15] ETH 1M ATM IV absolute move percentile 98.21 percentile Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [16] BTC 1W RR25 difference 0.59 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [17] BTC 1W RR25 -2.19 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [18] ETH 1W RR25 difference -2.59 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [19] ETH 1W RR25 -5.86 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [20] SOL 1W RR25 difference -2.50 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [21] SOL 1W RR25 -0.19 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [22] BTC 1M RR25 difference 0.65 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [23] BTC 1M RR25 -2.43 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [24] ETH 1M RR25 difference -1.10 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [25] ETH 1M RR25 -4.22 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [26] SOL 1M RR25 difference 0.19 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [27] SOL 1M RR25 0.29 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [28] BTC 1W BF25 difference 0.11 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [29] BTC 1W BF25 1.05 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [30] ETH 1W BF25 difference 0.81 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [31] ETH 1W BF25 2.24 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [32] SOL 1W BF25 difference -0.31 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [33] SOL 1W BF25 1.06 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [34] BTC 2W BF25 difference 0.12 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [35] BTC 2W BF25 1.15 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [36] ETH 2W BF25 difference 0.37 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [37] ETH 2W BF25 1.88 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [38] SOL 2W BF25 difference -0.25 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [39] SOL 2W BF25 1.08 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [40] ETH 1M BF25 difference 0.17 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [41] ETH 1M BF25 1.67 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [42] BTC 1M BF25 difference -0.02 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [43] BTC 1M BF25 1.08 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [44] SOL 1M BF25 difference -0.03 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [45] SOL 1M BF25 1.47 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [46] BTC spotPrice percentage change -5.50 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [47] ETH spotPrice percentage change -7.17 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [48] SOL spotPrice percentage change -6.35 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [49] BTC rv7d.recomputed 40.76 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [50] ETH rv7d.recomputed 55.48 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [51] SOL rv7d.recomputed 64.85 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [52] BTC 1W atmIv-rv7d spread -0.05 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [53] ETH 1W atmIv-rv7d spread -2.48 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [54] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread -2.72 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [55] BTC btcVol.ds30 43.72 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [56] BTC btcVol.bviv 42.33 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [57] BTC btcVol.bvivMinusDs30 -1.39 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [58] SPX close percentage change 1.58 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00 [59] VIX close difference -4.22 index points Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00 [60] BTC 2W ATM IV 38.75 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [61] BTC 2W ATM IV difference 3.90 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [62] BTC 2W RR25 -2.56 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [63] BTC 2W RR25 difference 0.40 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [64] ETH 2W ATM IV 52.75 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [65] ETH 2W ATM IV difference 4.60 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [66] ETH 2W RR25 -4.35 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [67] ETH 2W RR25 difference -1.38 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [68] SOL 2W RR25 0.56 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [69] SOL 2W RR25 difference -0.07 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [70] BTC 1W ATM IV 34.88 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [71] BTC 1M ATM IV 35.99 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [72] ETH 1W ATM IV 47.68 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [73] ETH 1M ATM IV 48.91 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [74] SOL 1W ATM IV 50.71 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [75] SOL 1M ATM IV 53.46 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [76] BTC 1W RR25 -2.78 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [116] ETH 1W RR25 -3.27 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [159] SOL 1W RR25 2.31 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

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