SOL weekly ATM volatility jumps into inversion

DERIVASYS Focused research note SOL weekly ATM volatility jumps into inversion SOL’s ATM volatility repricing was strongest at 1W, leaving the front above longer comparable tenors. Weekly RR25 crossed from call bias to slight put bias, while butterfly premiums narrowed across the shorter tenors. The distinction matters: higher ATM volatility, directional asymmetry and the wing premium relative to ATM describe different adjustments. Derivasys Research Report date 05 Nov 2026 Current snapshot 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Coverage SOL Comparison snapshot 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC The reading What the evidence says SOL 1W ATM IV rose by +11.42 vol points [1] to 62.13% [2] over the crypto daily comparison. The ordered endpoints establish an inverted ATM curve: 2W stood at 55.64% [3] , followed by 1M at 54.36% [4] . The weekly absolute ATM move ranked at 96.3rd percentile [5] against full captured history, with 54 observations (observed sampling; 06 Sep 2026–04 Nov 2026) [5] . This supports a front-loaded increase in the price of forward uncertainty. The directional adjustment was sharper at 1W and diverged from 1M. SOL 1W RR25 moved from 2.31 vol points [6] to -0.19 vol points [7] , changing by -2.50 vol points [8] . That crossing marks a loss of weekly call bias and a slight put premium. By contrast, 1M RR25 increased by +0.19 vol points [9] to 0.29 vol points [10] , retaining call bias. The weekly move therefore does not establish a downside tilt across comparable tenors. Butterfly premiums also narrowed, with a meaningful middle-tenor contribution to the measured pattern. SOL 1W BF25 changed by -0.31 vol points [11] to 1.06 vol points [12] . At 2W, BF25 changed by -0.25 vol points [13] to 1.08 vol points [14] , so butterfly narrowing was not confined to 1W. The 1M adjustment was smaller: BF25 changed by -0.03 vol points [15] to 1.47 vol points [16] . BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM; its decline alongside rising ATM IV establishes a narrower relative premium, without establishing lower absolute wing IV. The 1W ATM increase accompanied a SOL spot return of -6.35% [17] over the aligned crypto daily interval. Trailing weekly realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute prices, was 64.85% [18] ; forward 1W ATM IV minus that trailing measure was -2.72 vol points [19] . Thus the weekly IV jump still left forward IV below trailing realized volatility, a descriptive comparison across different periods. Broader markets offer a timing qualification: SPX rose by +1.58% [20] and VIX changed by -4.22 index points [21] between the preceding US session closes. Those earlier closes cannot establish synchronized risk aversion during SOL’s options adjustment. The Bank of England published a tightening decision during the crypto interval, but chronology alone cannot explain why SOL ATM repricing was strongest at 1W. Qualifications and limits ATM repricing extended beyond 1W: 2W increased by +2.86 vol points [22] , while 1M increased by +0.90 vol points [23] . These increases limit any claim that the adjustment was confined to weekly options. Historical ranks describe selected observed daily moves within their stated captured bounds; missing dates and selection can bias rank. They do not establish population rarity or joint significance. Crypto endpoints and US session closes use distinct clocks, and news publication times do not establish event responses. Forward 1W IV and trailing weekly RV cover different periods. RV uses annualized mean squared minute log returns with complete observed coverage; the spread establishes neither a volatility regime nor valuation, a forecast or a trading edge. Further qualifications Comparable fixed-tenor conclusions cover 1W, 2W and 1M. Listed-expiry additions and removals limit interpretation as repricing of an unchanged contract universe. Verified market snapshot Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote. Asset · tenor ATM IV ATM IV change RR25 RR25 change BF25 change SOL · 1W 62.13 % [2] 11.42 vol pts [1] -0.19 vol pts [7] -2.50 vol pts [8] -0.31 vol pts [11] SOL · 2W 55.64 % [3] 2.86 vol pts [22] 0.56 vol pts [24] -0.07 vol pts [25] -0.25 vol pts [13] SOL · 1M 54.36 % [4] 0.90 vol pts [23] 0.29 vol pts [10] 0.19 vol pts [9] -0.03 vol pts [15] Weekly versus monthly curve Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred. Asset Prior 1W Prior 1M Current 1W Current 1M Curve regime SOL 50.71 % [26] 53.46 % [27] 62.13 % [2] 54.36 % [4] Upward sloping → Inverted SOL BF25 curve SOL BF25 curve 1.50 vol pts 1.39 vol pts 1.28 vol pts 1.17 vol pts 1.06 vol pts 1W 2W 1M 2M 3M 1W · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.06 vol pts 2W · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.08 vol pts 1M · Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.47 vol pts 1W · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.37 vol pts 2W · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.33 vol pts 1M · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC: 1.50 vol pts Current · 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · Comparison · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC . Tenors are equally spaced categories, not elapsed time. Gaps remain unconnected. Figure sources: [31] [32] [33] SOL: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility SOL: size of daily changes in the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility 16.02 vol pts 12.02 vol pts 8.03 vol pts 4.04 vol pts 0.04 vol pts 2026-09-09T17:31:00+00:00: 0.04 vol pts 2026-10-22T17:31:00+00:00: 0.20 vol pts 2026-09-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.30 vol pts 2026-10-06T17:31:00+00:00: 0.34 vol pts 2026-10-15T17:31:00+00:00: 0.46 vol pts 2026-10-14T17:31:00+00:00: 0.50 vol pts 2026-09-07T17:31:00+00:00: 0.57 vol pts 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00: 0.61 vol pts 2026-10-17T17:31:00+00:00: 0.68 vol pts 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00: 0.74 vol pts 2026-10-10T17:31:00+00:00: 0.82 vol pts 2026-09-08T17:31:00+00:00: 0.91 vol pts 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00: 0.92 vol pts 2026-11-01T17:31:00+00:00: 0.97 vol pts 2026-09-11T17:31:00+00:00: 1.03 vol pts 2026-10-03T17:31:00+00:00: 1.07 vol pts 2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00: 1.37 vol pts 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00: 1.45 vol pts 2026-11-03T17:31:00+00:00: 1.51 vol pts 2026-10-02T17:31:00+00:00: 1.52 vol pts 2026-10-07T17:31:00+00:00: 1.55 vol pts 2026-10-01T17:31:00+00:00: 1.65 vol pts 2026-10-05T17:31:00+00:00: 1.71 vol pts 2026-09-18T17:31:00+00:00: 1.73 vol pts 2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00: 1.73 vol pts 2026-10-11T17:31:00+00:00: 1.74 vol pts 2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00: 1.78 vol pts 2026-10-04T17:31:00+00:00: 1.87 vol pts 2026-09-19T17:31:00+00:00: 1.92 vol pts 2026-10-16T17:31:00+00:00: 1.92 vol pts 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00: 1.95 vol pts 2026-10-19T17:31:00+00:00: 2.08 vol pts 2026-09-10T17:31:00+00:00: 2.30 vol pts 2026-10-18T17:31:00+00:00: 2.44 vol pts 2026-11-02T17:31:00+00:00: 2.63 vol pts 2026-09-27T17:31:00+00:00: 2.69 vol pts 2026-10-21T17:31:00+00:00: 2.77 vol pts 2026-09-30T17:31:00+00:00: 2.80 vol pts 2026-09-14T17:31:00+00:00: 2.86 vol pts 2026-10-23T17:31:00+00:00: 2.86 vol pts 2026-10-20T17:31:00+00:00: 2.92 vol pts 2026-09-20T17:31:00+00:00: 3.08 vol pts 2026-09-16T17:31:00+00:00: 3.30 vol pts 2026-09-17T17:31:00+00:00: 3.40 vol pts 2026-09-23T17:31:00+00:00: 3.57 vol pts 2026-10-12T17:31:00+00:00: 3.73 vol pts 2026-09-06T17:31:00+00:00: 4.69 vol pts 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00: 4.82 vol pts 2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00: 5.57 vol pts 2026-10-13T17:31:00+00:00: 7.87 vol pts 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00: 8.25 vol pts 2026-10-08T17:31:00+00:00: 9.13 vol pts 2026-10-09T17:31:00+00:00: 12.42 vol pts 2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00: 16.02 vol pts Current statistic: 11.42 vol pts Sample rank (ordered by value) Observed samples in teal. Current statistic: 11.42 vol pts (red). Change sizes ignore direction: increases and decreases of the same size are ranked together. n=54; 2026-09-06 to 2026-11-04; source-selected observed sample, no fill. [5] BF25 change by tenor BF25 change by tenor -0.40 vol pts 0.00 vol pts 0.40 vol pts 1W 1W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.31 vol pts -0.31 2W 2W · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.25 vol pts -0.25 1M 1M · SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h: -0.03 vol pts -0.03 SOL · 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC · 24h . Own-run receipt-matched changes; missing or ambiguous points remain gaps. Figure evidence: [11] [13] [15] What to watch next Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast. Story component Next snapshot Observed condition Comparison period Evidence SOL · 1W ATM implied volatility 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Current level: at or above 62.13 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 62.13 % and strictly above 50.71 %. Prior level: at or below 50.71 % (prior level). 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC [2] [26] [1] SOL · 1W 25-delta butterfly premium 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Current level: at or below 1.06 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above 1.06 vol pts and strictly below 1.37 vol pts. Prior level: at or above 1.37 vol pts (prior level). 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC [12] [34] [11] SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal 06 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC Current level: at or below -0.19 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly above -0.19 vol pts and strictly below 2.31 vol pts. Prior level: at or above 2.31 vol pts (prior level). 04 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 05 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC [7] [6] [8] Historical sampling methodology Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree. Measure Population Observed pairs or levels Requested window Excluded pair or level endpoints SOL 1W.atmIv.absolute_move [5] full captured history 54 2026-09-05T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-04T17:31:00+00:00 2026-09-12T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-13T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 Source reporting Bank rate increased to 4% - November 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes · Published 2026-11-05T12:00:00+00:00 BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points. Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff. Source notes [1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference 11.42 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [2] SOL 1W ATM IV 62.13 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [3] SOL 2W ATM IV 55.64 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [4] SOL 1M ATM IV 54.36 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [5] SOL 1W ATM IV absolute move percentile 96.30 percentile Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [6] SOL 1W RR25 2.31 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [7] SOL 1W RR25 -0.19 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [8] SOL 1W RR25 difference -2.50 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [9] SOL 1M RR25 difference 0.19 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [10] SOL 1M RR25 0.29 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [11] SOL 1W BF25 difference -0.31 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [12] SOL 1W BF25 1.06 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [13] SOL 2W BF25 difference -0.25 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [14] SOL 2W BF25 1.08 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [15] SOL 1M BF25 difference -0.03 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [16] SOL 1M BF25 1.47 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [17] SOL spotPrice percentage change -6.35 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [18] SOL rv7d.recomputed 64.85 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [19] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread -2.72 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [20] SPX close percentage change 1.58 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00 [21] VIX close difference -4.22 index points Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:47:47.589255+00:00 [22] SOL 2W ATM IV difference 2.86 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [23] SOL 1M ATM IV difference 0.90 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [24] SOL 2W RR25 0.56 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [25] SOL 2W RR25 difference -0.07 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [26] SOL 1W ATM IV 50.71 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [27] SOL 1M ATM IV 53.46 % Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 [31] Source Source type: options-observations Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 Open cited source [32] Source Source type: options-observations Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 Open cited source [33] Source Source type: options-observations Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00 Open cited source [34] SOL 1W BF25 1.37 vol pts Source type: calculation Observed: 2026-11-05T17:31:00+00:00

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