Daily research · 9 Nov 2026

Published 9 Nov 2026, 18:30 UTC

Market snapshot 9 Nov 2026, 17:31 UTC

SOL ATM volatility repricing favors shorter tenors

SOL’s ATM volatility increase was strongest at 1W and extended through 2W and 1M, while 2M barely moved and 3M declined. The existing front-end premium therefore accompanies uneven repricing across maturities. Falling spot and measured trailing volatility provide context, but butterfly premiums and longer-tenor skew show that the adjustment differs by options measure.

The reading

What the evidence says

SOL’s shorter maturities showed the strongest increase in at-the-money implied volatility, or ATM IV. Over the crypto comparison window, 1W ATM IV changed by +4.71 vol points ^[1] to 61.73% ^[2], while 2W changed by +3.01 vol points ^[3] to 59.02% ^[4]. The increase extended to 1M, which changed by +1.08 vol points ^[5] to 57.18% ^[6]. By comparison, 2M changed by +0.15 vol points ^[7] to 56.42% ^[8], and 3M changed by -0.18 vol points ^[9]. The front-end premium was already present: at the previous snapshot, 1W ATM IV was 57.02% ^[10], above 2M at 56.27% ^[11]. The economic distinction is stronger near-term uncertainty pricing, with a meaningful extension into 2W and 1M rather than a uniform increase across maturities.

The shorter-tenor ATM increase accompanied a SOL spot return of -2.90% ^[12] over the same comparison window. Trailing realized volatility, recomputed from canonical minute returns on an annualized basis, measured 62.98% ^[13]; forward 1W ATM IV minus trailing realized volatility was -1.25 vol points ^[14]. Thus, the 1W ATM increase did not put forward implied volatility above the trailing realized measure. For historical perspective, the magnitude of the 2W ATM change had a full-captured-history percentile of 85.2nd percentile ^[15] within 54 observations (observed sampling; 10 Sep 2026–08 Nov 2026) ^[15]. That comparison describes the magnitude of the 2W move, not the rarity of the entire curve configuration.

Butterfly pricing showed a different pattern from ATM IV. BF25 measures the average wing IV premium over ATM: SOL 1W BF25 changed by -0.07 vol points ^[16] to 1.59 vol points ^[17], while 2W changed by +0.01 vol points ^[18] to 1.60 vol points ^[19], and 1M changed by +0.12 vol points ^[20] to 1.80 vol points ^[21]. These relatively small butterfly adjustments qualify the sharp 1W ATM increase: the 1W premium narrowed, but that does not establish declining absolute wing IV. Longer-tenor directional pricing also changed, with 3M RR25—call-versus-put IV asymmetry—changing by -0.63 vol points ^[22] from -0.26 vol points ^[23] to -0.89 vol points ^[24]. This deepened an existing 3M downside bias despite the slight 3M ATM decline. Separately, The Block reported Formation’s notification concerning a Solana securities venue. That prospective development establishes neither approval nor live usage, and offers no verified explanation for the stronger shorter-tenor ATM repricing.

Qualifications and limits

Forward 1W implied volatility and trailing realized volatility cover different periods; their spread does not establish value, a forecast or a trading edge.
Historical ranks describe selected observed samples, with missing dates and mixed clock availability limiting population coverage; they do not establish joint rarity. The 3M ATM move could not be ranked against matching history.
Realized volatility uses adjacent canonical minute returns with complete observed coverage and no interpolation; same-series recomputation does not independently validate the underlying prices. News publication and market observation clocks do not establish causal attribution.

Verified market snapshot

Current levels and changes over each recorded native interval. Only receipt-matched quotes are shown; an em dash marks a missing matching quote.
Asset · tenor	ATM IV	ATM IV change	RR25	RR25 change	BF25 change
SOL · 1W	61.73 %^[2]	4.71 vol pts^[1]	-2.87 vol pts^[25]	0.52 vol pts^[26]	-0.07 vol pts^[16]
SOL · 2W	59.02 %^[4]	3.01 vol pts^[3]	-2.00 vol pts^[27]	0.54 vol pts^[28]	0.01 vol pts^[18]
SOL · 1M	57.18 %^[6]	1.08 vol pts^[5]	-1.65 vol pts^[29]	0.05 vol pts^[30]	0.12 vol pts^[20]
SOL · 2M	56.42 %^[8]	0.15 vol pts^[7]	-1.25 vol pts^[31]	-0.39 vol pts^[32]	0.12 vol pts^[33]
SOL · 3M	56.01 %^[34]	-0.18 vol pts^[9]	-0.89 vol pts^[24]	-0.63 vol pts^[22]	0.08 vol pts^[35]

Weekly versus monthly curve

Matched native endpoints; inverted means monthly ATM IV is below weekly ATM IV. Regimes compare verified levels; no numerical slope is inferred.
Asset	Prior 1W	Prior 1M	Current 1W	Current 1M	Curve regime
SOL	57.02 % ^[10]	56.10 % ^[36]	61.73 % ^[2]	57.18 % ^[6]	Remained inverted

Recent ATM curve history

One-month minus one-week at-the-money implied volatility. Negative values mean an inverted curve. Each row retains its native observation time; missing days are not filled.

Asset	Native observation (UTC)	1M minus 1W ATM IV
SOL	2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00	-4.55 vol pts ^[37]
SOL	2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00	-0.92 vol pts ^[38]
SOL	2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00	-1.79 vol pts ^[39]
SOL	2026-11-06T17:31:00+00:00	-1.74 vol pts ^[40]

SOL ATM IV term structure

SOL observed 1M minus 1W ATM IV

SOL trailing 7d variance: entering and leaving returns

Full original chart detail

SOL: size of daily changes in the 2-week at-the-money implied volatility

^[15]

SOL BF25 curve

Figure sources: ^[48] ^[49] ^[50] ^[51] ^[52]

BF25 change by tenor

Figure evidence: ^[16] ^[18] ^[20]

What to watch next

Each monitor describes a verified component or central counterexample of the selected story; observation tests, not a joint forecast.
Story component	Next snapshot	Observed condition	Comparison period	Evidence
SOL · 1W ATM implied volatility	10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 61.73 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 61.73 % and strictly above 57.02 %. Prior level: at or below 57.02 % (prior level).	08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[2] ^[10] ^[1]
SOL · 2W ATM implied volatility	10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above 59.02 % (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below 59.02 % and strictly above 56.01 %. Prior level: at or below 56.01 % (prior level).	08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[4] ^[41] ^[3]
SOL · 1W 25-delta risk reversal	10 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	Current level: at or above -2.87 vol pts (current level). Between current and prior: strictly below -2.87 vol pts and strictly above -3.39 vol pts. Prior level: at or below -3.39 vol pts (prior level).	08 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC → 09 Nov 2026 · 17:31 UTC	^[25] ^[53] ^[26]

Historical sampling methodology

Each rank describes its supplied population. Exact consecutive daily endpoints use fixed UTC anchors and 24 elapsed hours, including across daylight-saving changes. Missing pairs are omitted without interpolation; their absence does not establish why the provider omitted them. Full captured history is bounded by this run. Different captures and windows can have different denominators even when their ranks agree.

Measure	Population	Observed pairs or levels	Requested window	Excluded pair or level endpoints
SOL 2W.atmIv.absolute_move^[15]	full captured history	54	2026-09-09T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-08T17:31:00+00:00	2026-09-12T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-13T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-21T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-22T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-28T17:31:00+00:00, 2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00

Source reporting

Formation notifies SEC to operate first tokenized securities venue on Solana · Published 2026-11-09T12:30:00+00:00

BF25 = (25-delta call IV + 25-delta put IV) / 2 − ATM IV. Levels and changes are measured in volatility points.

Retrospective report: native market dates are distinct from later retrieval and run clocks. Later capture does not establish availability at the original cutoff.

Source notes

[1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference

4.71 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[2] SOL 1W ATM IV

61.73 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[3] SOL 2W ATM IV difference

3.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[4] SOL 2W ATM IV

59.02 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[5] SOL 1M ATM IV difference

1.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[6] SOL 1M ATM IV

57.18 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[7] SOL 2M ATM IV difference

0.15 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[8] SOL 2M ATM IV

56.42 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[9] SOL 3M ATM IV difference

-0.18 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[10] SOL 1W ATM IV

57.02 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[11] SOL 2M ATM IV

56.27 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[12] SOL spotPrice percentage change

-2.90 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[13] SOL rv7d.recomputed

62.98 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[14] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

-1.25 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[15] SOL 2W ATM IV absolute move percentile

85.19 percentile

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[16] SOL 1W BF25 difference

-0.07 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[17] SOL 1W BF25

1.59 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[18] SOL 2W BF25 difference

0.01 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[19] SOL 2W BF25

1.60 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[20] SOL 1M BF25 difference

0.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[21] SOL 1M BF25

1.80 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[22] SOL 3M RR25 difference

-0.63 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[23] SOL 3M RR25

-0.26 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[24] SOL 3M RR25

-0.89 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[25] SOL 1W RR25

-2.87 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[26] SOL 1W RR25 difference

0.52 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[27] SOL 2W RR25

-2.00 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[28] SOL 2W RR25 difference

0.54 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[29] SOL 1M RR25

-1.65 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[30] SOL 1M RR25 difference

0.05 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[31] SOL 2M RR25

-1.25 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[32] SOL 2M RR25 difference

-0.39 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[33] SOL 2M BF25 difference

0.12 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[34] SOL 3M ATM IV

56.01 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[35] SOL 3M BF25 difference

0.08 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[36] SOL 1M ATM IV

56.10 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[37] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-4.55 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[38] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-0.92 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[39] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.79 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[40] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

-1.74 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:59:36.855967+00:00

[41] SOL 2W ATM IV

56.01 %

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

[48] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[49] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[50] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[51] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[52] Source

Source type: options-observations

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Open cited source

[53] SOL 1W RR25

-3.39 vol pts

Source type: calculation

Observed: 2026-11-09T17:31:00+00:00

Source data (JSON) · Surface metrics (CSV) · Evidence (JSON) · Report (JSON) · Report archive

What the evidence says

Qualifications and limits

Verified market snapshot

Weekly versus monthly curve

SOL ATM IV term structure

SOL observed 1M minus 1W ATM IV

SOL trailing 7d variance: entering and leaving returns

SOL: size of daily changes in the 2-week at-the-money implied volatility

SOL BF25 curve

BF25 change by tenor

What to watch next

Source reporting

[1] SOL 1W ATM IV difference

[2] SOL 1W ATM IV

[3] SOL 2W ATM IV difference

[4] SOL 2W ATM IV

[5] SOL 1M ATM IV difference

[6] SOL 1M ATM IV

[7] SOL 2M ATM IV difference

[8] SOL 2M ATM IV

[9] SOL 3M ATM IV difference

[10] SOL 1W ATM IV

[11] SOL 2M ATM IV

[12] SOL spotPrice percentage change

[13] SOL rv7d.recomputed

[14] SOL 1W atmIv-rv7d spread

[15] SOL 2W ATM IV absolute move percentile

[16] SOL 1W BF25 difference

[17] SOL 1W BF25

[18] SOL 2W BF25 difference

[19] SOL 2W BF25

[20] SOL 1M BF25 difference

[21] SOL 1M BF25

[22] SOL 3M RR25 difference

[23] SOL 3M RR25

[24] SOL 3M RR25

[25] SOL 1W RR25

[26] SOL 1W RR25 difference

[27] SOL 2W RR25

[28] SOL 2W RR25 difference

[29] SOL 1M RR25

[30] SOL 1M RR25 difference

[31] SOL 2M RR25

[32] SOL 2M RR25 difference

[33] SOL 2M BF25 difference

[34] SOL 3M ATM IV

[35] SOL 3M BF25 difference

[36] SOL 1M ATM IV

[37] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[38] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[39] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[40] SOL 1M atmIv-1W.atmIv spread

[41] SOL 2W ATM IV

[48] Source

[49] Source

[50] Source

[51] Source

[52] Source

[53] SOL 1W RR25

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