BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 2.09 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +1.61 volatility points, RR25 -0.32 volatility points and BF25 +0.10 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.09 volatility points, to 38.47%.
03 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.80 volatility points to 38.72% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +1.30 volatility points to 44.35% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.32 volatility points to -4.00% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 increased, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 1.99% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.09 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: no additions; removed 4MAY26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +2.09 vol pts02
Largest eligible smile rotation
8MAY26, +1.72 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1M, -0.57 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, +0.24 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
7MAY26, +0.1400 param06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
29MAY26, +0.1002 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
38.47
36.38
+2.09 vol pts
+5.74%
2W
38.45
36.91
+1.54 vol pts
+4.17%
1M
39.24
37.47
+1.77 vol pts
+4.72%
3M
40.90
39.24
+1.66 vol pts
+4.23%
6M
43.55
41.89
+1.66 vol pts
+3.96%
9M
44.74
43.43
+1.31 vol pts
+3.02%
1Y
45.15
44.21
+0.94 vol pts
+2.13%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1M.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.32 volatility points to -4.00% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-2.45
-2.30
-0.15 vol pts
2W
-3.24
-2.98
-0.26 vol pts
1M
-3.78
-3.21
-0.57 vol pts
3M
-5.03
-4.54
-0.49 vol pts
6M
-4.93
-4.67
-0.26 vol pts
9M
-4.70
-4.48
-0.22 vol pts
1Y
-4.56
-4.35
-0.21 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 1.99% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.75
1.58
+0.17 vol pts
2W
1.78
1.54
+0.24 vol pts
1M
1.96
1.89
+0.07 vol pts
3M
2.09
2.02
+0.07 vol pts
6M
2.21
2.23
-0.02 vol pts
9M
2.22
2.20
+0.02 vol pts
1Y
2.14
2.05
+0.09 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
Smile rotation
5MAY26, -6.39 vol pts1.3d
ATM IV change
6MAY26, +3.90 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
5MAY26Expiry effect
0.3 days
79,846.81
+1301.35 USD
38.04%
+3.35 vol pts
-0.69 vol pts
-0.71 vol pts
6MAY26Expiry effect
1.3 days
79,820.77
+1262.89 USD
38.47%
+3.90 vol pts
-0.19 vol pts
+0.13 vol pts
7MAY26
2.3 days
79,817.8
+1255.44 USD
38.92%
+3.61 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
+0.08 vol pts
8MAY26
3.3 days
79,810.93
+1242.73 USD
38.59%
+2.87 vol pts
+0.49 vol pts
+0.21 vol pts
15MAY26
10.3 days
79,826.8
+1241.09 USD
38.44%
+1.66 vol pts
-0.20 vol pts
+0.18 vol pts
22MAY26
17.3 days
79,850.91
+1249.43 USD
38.46%
+1.41 vol pts
-0.10 vol pts
+0.28 vol pts
29MAY26
24.3 days
79,858.54
+1236.40 USD
38.87%
+1.64 vol pts
-0.72 vol pts
+0.06 vol pts
26JUN26
52.3 days
79,979.4
+1249.67 USD
39.92%
+1.87 vol pts
-0.17 vol pts
+0.01 vol pts
31JUL26
87.3 days
80,190.55
+1275.09 USD
40.72%
+1.60 vol pts
-0.49 vol pts
+0.07 vol pts
25SEP26
143.3 days
80,531.14
+1322.68 USD
42.42%
+1.77 vol pts
-0.33 vol pts
-0.07 vol pts
25DEC26
234.3 days
81,251.12
+1389.39 USD
44.47%
+1.54 vol pts
-0.21 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
26MAR27
325.3 days
81,920.91
+1398.01 USD
45.00%
+1.06 vol pts
-0.21 vol pts
+0.07 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
5MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening6MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening7MAY26rotation towards calls · wing steepening8MAY26rotation towards calls · wing steepening15MAY26parallel shift higher · wing steepening22MAY26parallel shift higher · wing steepening29MAY26rotation towards puts26JUN26parallel shift higher31JUL26parallel shift higher25SEP26parallel shift higher25DEC26parallel shift higher26MAR27parallel shift higher
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
5MAY26
6MAY26
7MAY26
8MAY26
15MAY26
22MAY26
29MAY26
26JUN26
31JUL26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 29MAY26; the largest sigma change occurred at 7MAY26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
5MAY26
-0.03000
-0.00350
-0.04470
-0.06320
+0.45270
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
6MAY26
-0.00700
+0.00420
+0.03740
+0.01720
+0.04060
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
7MAY26
-0.02990
+0.02140
+0.04840
+0.01590
+0.14000
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
8MAY26
-0.00650
+0.00730
+0.02960
+0.01260
+0.01180
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
15MAY26
+0.00790
+0.00100
+0.03690
+0.03020
-0.05860
parallel shift higher, wing steepening
22MAY26
+0.00660
+0.00790
+0.07930
+0.05750
-0.08300
parallel shift higher, wing steepening
29MAY26
+0.00950
-0.00430
+0.10020
+0.09620
-0.03350
rotation towards puts
26JUN26
-0.03760
+0.01880
-0.03700
-0.03150
+0.12040
parallel shift higher
31JUL26
-0.03730
+0.01890
-0.03780
-0.02130
+0.11010
parallel shift higher
25SEP26
+0.01270
-0.01620
+0.06680
+0.10780
+0.02100
parallel shift higher
25DEC26
+0.00230
-0.00960
+0.03680
+0.06550
+0.03970
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
+0.00010
-0.00140
+0.03670
+0.07070
+0.01110
parallel shift higher
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
