Derivasys
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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options turn call-rich as two-week skew reprices

Across the five available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +1.35 volatility points, RR25 +2.21 volatility points and BF25 +0.05 volatility points between the stored endpoints.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published

Lead chart

BTC ATM implied-volatility term structure

32.2%34.8%37.3%39.9%42.5%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Week-end surface snapshot against the week-opening comparison snapshot.

Bitcoin two-week RR25 rose 3.22 volatility points to 1.61%, shifting from put-rich to call-rich pricing and registering as a notable historical move. Front-end ATM IV increased 1.92 points over the week, while long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged. The two-week ATM IV rise was 2.54 points to 36.73%.

No qualifying macro or Bitcoin-specific event was retained for this diary date.

No qualifying event was selected to explain the observed weekly surface change.

No qualifying event was retained through the report cutoff on this date.

01 · Week in review

Macro · Crypto · Options

The week in markets.

Bitcoin two-week RR25 rose 3.22 volatility points to 1.61%, shifting from put-rich to call-rich pricing and registering as a notable historical move. Front-end ATM IV increased 1.92 points over the week, while long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged. The two-week ATM IV rise was 2.54 points to 36.73%.

Weekend begins without market catalyst

Daily report

No qualifying macro or Bitcoin-specific event was retained for this diary date.

Sunday carries no retained context

Daily report

The diary contains no qualifying macro or crypto catalyst for this date.

Monday adds no qualifying catalyst

Daily report

No retained event offers relevant context for Bitcoin options during this date.

Midweek context remains unavailable

Daily report

No qualifying event was selected to explain the observed weekly surface change.

No catalyst enters the weekly diary

Daily report

The retained record contains no event meeting relevance requirements for this date.

Thursday yields no selected context

Daily report

No evidence-backed event was included as options-market context for this date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

Week closes without retained news

Daily report

No qualifying event was retained through the report cutoff on this date.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at +2.54 volatility points, to 36.73%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC to 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC

News context unavailable.

News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.

03 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.92 volatility points to 36.22% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 40.15% (-0.01 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +2.21 volatility points to 0.80% across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to 2.13% across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.54 volatility points at 2W, to 36.73%.

Weekly universe roll: added 6SEP26, 7SEP26, 8SEP26, 9SEP26; removed 1SEP26, 2SEP26, 30AUG26, 31AUG26, 4SEP26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

04 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

11SEP26, +8.56 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, +3.22 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, +2.54 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

3M, +0.36 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

27NOV26, -0.2486 param
06

Largest eligible SVI rho move

25SEP26, -0.0927 param

05 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W34.9533.19+1.76 vol pts+5.30%
2W36.7334.19+2.54 vol pts+7.43%
1M36.9835.52+1.46 vol pts+4.11%
3M38.9337.94+0.99 vol pts+2.61%
6M40.1540.16-0.01 vol pts-0.02%
9M41.4041.49-0.09 vol pts-0.22%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

06 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 09-02 to 09-03

1W, +7.07 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 09-03 to 09-04

1W, -5.49 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 09-02 to 09-03

2W, +5.43 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 09-03 to 09-04

2W, -3.69 vol pts
05

ATM IV · 09-02 to 09-03

1M, +3.32 vol pts
06

RR25 · 09-02 to 09-03

1W, +3.17 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W30.74%37.81%7.07 vol pts3.27 vol pts0.38 vol pts
2W33.61%39.04%5.43 vol pts4.02 vol pts0.46 vol pts
1M34.91%38.23%3.32 vol pts3.54 vol pts0.34 vol pts
3M37.72%39.84%2.12 vol pts1.83 vol pts0.55 vol pts
6M39.65%40.80%1.15 vol pts0.95 vol pts0.24 vol pts
9M41.01%41.84%0.83 vol pts0.68 vol pts0.21 vol pts
1Y41.83%42.49%0.66 vol pts0.58 vol pts0.21 vol pts

Daily report trail

The validated reports behind the weekly path.

This weekly edition reuses the stored headline, reader summary, news outcome and principal ATM fact from each published daily report inside the comparison window.

DatePublished daily reportLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
BTC implied volatility trails seven-day realised volatility1W: -1.22 vol pts to 33.40%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC one-week implied volatility trails realised volatility1W: +0.87 vol pts to 34.27%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC one-week implied volatility trails realised moves1W: +1.17 vol pts to 34.71%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Btc’s short-dated smile rotates as skew turns put-rich1W: -0.81 vol pts to 34.11%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options cheapen as short-term put volatility rises1W: -2.33 vol pts to 31.03%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin’s two-week skew makes the defining move1W: +5.75 vol pts to 37.02%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin options reprice lower as 1w ATM IV falls1W: -5.04 vol pts to 32.01%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin’s one-week volatility move dominates the surface1W: +3.24 vol pts to 34.95%No sufficiently relevant context identified

07 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +2.21 volatility points to 0.80% across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.62-0.70+2.32 vol pts
2W1.61-1.61+3.22 vol pts
1M0.89-2.16+3.05 vol pts
3M-0.04-1.58+1.54 vol pts
6M-0.09-1.00+0.91 vol pts
9M0.10-0.54+0.64 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to 2.13% across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 3M.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.761.84-0.08 vol pts
2W1.811.89-0.08 vol pts
1M2.132.12+0.01 vol pts
3M2.422.06+0.36 vol pts
6M2.532.50+0.03 vol pts
9M2.782.66+0.12 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

08 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
11SEP265.6 days79,945.57+1665.70 USD33.78%+0.05 vol pts+2.98 vol pts-0.08 vol pts
18SEP2612.6 days79,980.53+1632.61 USD36.86%+1.56 vol pts+3.75 vol pts-0.29 vol pts
25SEP2619.6 days80,025.88+1631.85 USD36.41%+1.11 vol pts+3.39 vol pts-0.25 vol pts
30OCT2654.6 days80,374.01+1607.65 USD37.45%+1.06 vol pts+2.41 vol pts+0.15 vol pts
27NOV2682.6 days80,698.15+1623.88 USD38.75%+0.87 vol pts+1.61 vol pts+0.37 vol pts
25DEC26110.6 days81,014.2+1636.88 USD39.25%+0.48 vol pts+1.40 vol pts+0.12 vol pts
26MAR27201.6 days81,936.78+1631.52 USD40.28%-0.19 vol pts+0.80 vol pts0.00 vol pts
25JUN27292.6 days82,867.67+1540.28 USD41.61%-0.17 vol pts+0.58 vol pts+0.12 vol pts

06 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

11SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
18SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

07 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
11SEP26+0.00890-0.01380+0.04180-0.00270-0.02630rotation towards calls, wing steepening
18SEP26-0.01470+0.00330-0.06650-0.10740+0.08510rotation towards calls, wing steepening
25SEP26-0.01100+0.00460-0.09270-0.12330+0.05630rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26+0.04710-0.03360+0.00700+0.01330-0.16810rotation towards calls
27NOV26+0.07900-0.03010+0.00070+0.04020-0.24860rotation towards calls
25DEC26+0.06960-0.02530-0.03210-0.02900-0.17110rotation towards calls
26MAR27+0.03390-0.00480-0.07590-0.09880-0.09080rotation towards calls
25JUN27+0.03230-0.00160-0.05990-0.07950-0.09960parallel shift lower

08 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
29 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
The weekly edition reuses 8 validated daily reports from 2026-08-29 through 2026-09-05; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.
Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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