6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +5.75 volatility points, to 37.02%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
02 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC to 03 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 16:38 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 37.02%, 2.06 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 34.96%; 24-hour realised volatility was 38.38% and 30-day realised volatility was 36.91%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +4.20 volatility points to 37.40% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.66 volatility points to 41.41% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +1.68 volatility points to 0.92% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 increased, averaging +0.11 volatility points to 2.50% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +5.75 volatility points at 1W, to 37.02%.
Universe roll: added 7SEP26; removed 3SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
6SEP26, +9.53 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +5.75 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, +2.89 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, +0.25 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI rho move
27NOV26, -0.2141 param06
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
30OCT26, -0.1293 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
37.02
31.27
+5.75 vol pts
+18.39%
2W
37.76
33.58
+4.18 vol pts
+12.45%
1M
37.42
34.76
+2.66 vol pts
+7.65%
3M
39.31
37.44
+1.87 vol pts
+4.99%
6M
40.50
39.57
+0.93 vol pts
+2.35%
9M
41.62
41.05
+0.57 vol pts
+1.39%
1Y
42.32
41.94
+0.38 vol pts
+0.91%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 2W.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +1.68 volatility points to 0.92% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.94
-0.92
+2.86 vol pts
2W
1.99
-0.90
+2.89 vol pts
1M
1.07
-0.87
+1.94 vol pts
3M
0.17
-1.10
+1.27 vol pts
6M
-0.01
-0.66
+0.65 vol pts
9M
0.21
-0.34
+0.55 vol pts
1Y
0.35
-0.14
+0.49 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.11 volatility points to 2.50% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
2.16
1.94
+0.22 vol pts
2W
2.27
2.02
+0.25 vol pts
1M
2.39
2.29
+0.10 vol pts
3M
2.57
2.54
+0.03 vol pts
6M
2.67
2.62
+0.05 vol pts
9M
2.83
2.80
+0.03 vol pts
1Y
2.93
2.92
+0.01 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.6d
Smile rotation
4SEP26, +29.36 vol pts1.6d
ATM IV change
5SEP26, +12.26 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
4SEP26Expiry effect
0.6 days
80,838.84
+3431.76 USD
49.67%
+16.89 vol pts
+5.81 vol pts
+0.61 vol pts
5SEP26Expiry effect
1.6 days
80,870.12
+3451.36 USD
44.73%
+12.26 vol pts
+3.08 vol pts
+0.64 vol pts
6SEP26
2.6 days
80,877.25
+3450.12 USD
38.04%
+8.10 vol pts
+2.74 vol pts
+0.72 vol pts
11SEP26
7.6 days
80,908.21
+3459.35 USD
37.11%
+5.57 vol pts
+2.92 vol pts
+0.20 vol pts
18SEP26
14.6 days
80,963.03
+3467.47 USD
37.79%
+3.88 vol pts
+2.88 vol pts
+0.26 vol pts
25SEP26
21.6 days
81,004.16
+3493.60 USD
37.03%
+2.83 vol pts
+2.10 vol pts
+0.04 vol pts
30OCT26
56.6 days
81,384.54
+3494.35 USD
37.89%
+2.33 vol pts
+1.83 vol pts
+0.13 vol pts
27NOV26
84.6 days
81,707.09
+3518.90 USD
39.22%
+2.01 vol pts
+1.44 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
25DEC26
112.6 days
82,009.49
+3511.45 USD
39.55%
+1.40 vol pts
+0.80 vol pts
+0.16 vol pts
26MAR27
203.6 days
82,930.62
+3521.22 USD
40.66%
+0.83 vol pts
+0.63 vol pts
+0.05 vol pts
25JUN27
294.6 days
83,941.9
+3541.92 USD
41.83%
+0.51 vol pts
+0.53 vol pts
+0.01 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
4SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening5SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening6SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening11SEP26rotation towards calls · wing flattening18SEP26rotation towards calls25SEP26rotation towards calls · wing flattening30OCT26rotation towards calls27NOV26rotation towards calls25DEC26parallel shift higher · rotation towards calls26MAR27parallel shift higher25JUN27parallel shift higher
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
4SEP26
5SEP26
6SEP26
11SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
30OCT26
27NOV26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 30OCT26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
4SEP26
0.00000
-0.00620
+0.22000
+0.07320
+0.03260
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
5SEP26
+0.00040
-0.00420
+0.04890
+0.00950
+0.01430
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
6SEP26
+0.00620
-0.00270
+0.06660
+0.01740
-0.04280
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
11SEP26
-0.00190
-0.00340
+0.03730
-0.00750
+0.02740
rotation towards calls, wing flattening
18SEP26
-0.00330
+0.00570
-0.01310
-0.04110
+0.00840
rotation towards calls
25SEP26
-0.00610
+0.00360
-0.00110
-0.03590
+0.03510
rotation towards calls, wing flattening
30OCT26
+0.03990
-0.02130
-0.15310
-0.09900
-0.12930
rotation towards calls
27NOV26
+0.02620
+0.01410
-0.21410
-0.17790
-0.09270
rotation towards calls
25DEC26
+0.00780
+0.00840
-0.03790
-0.04750
-0.03500
parallel shift higher, rotation towards calls
26MAR27
+0.00300
+0.00590
-0.04810
-0.07140
-0.00990
parallel shift higher
25JUN27
-0.04980
+0.03300
-0.08110
-0.12490
+0.07580
parallel shift higher
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.3 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was low at 0.11.
Implied-volatility premium
BTC 30-day ATM IV was 34.48%, against VIX at 15.20: a 19.28-point spread and 2.27× ratio.
Realised-volatility regime
BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 45.41%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 7.59%. The spread ranked at 78.8 percentile of 226 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.112 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.319 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 12.57, 15.20 and 17.73.
As of 02 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Provider: yahoo_finance; quality: valid. Crypto RV annualised on sqrt(365); SPX RV on sqrt(252).
13 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
Current snapshot
03 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC
Comparison snapshot
02 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
