Bitcoin rose 1.55 per cent over the 24-hour window, but the options market did not chase the move: one-week implied volatility added only 0.19 points and one-month volatility slipped. Skew became less defensive, while seven-day realised volatility remained above the one-week implied measure. The news backdrop offered useful institutional and on-chain context, though neither item provides a convincing explanation for the restrained repricing.
BTCSpot-index 24h +1.55%1W ATM IV 33.53%1W RR25 -0.46 vol pts1W BF25 +1.84 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
BTC1W ATM IV 33.53%Spot-index 24h +1.55%
Full snapshot readings
BTCSpot-index 24h +1.55%1W ATM IV 33.53%1W RR25 -0.46 vol pts1W BF25 +1.84 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · Options
The day in markets.
Bitcoin rose 1.55 per cent over the 24-hour window, but the options market did not chase the move: one-week implied volatility added only 0.19 points and one-month volatility slipped. Skew became less defensive, while seven-day realised volatility remained above the one-week implied measure. The news backdrop offered useful institutional and on-chain context, though neither item provides a convincing explanation for the restrained repricing.
Bitcoin gains without a volatility chase
Bitcoin’s forward rose as the front of the volatility curve held broadly steady and short-dated skew moved back towards calls, leaving the day more orderly than the spot advance alone might suggest.
Macro
The weekend produced no fresh scheduled macro release that met the report’s relevance threshold; the latest completed US-session context therefore remains Friday’s close.
Crypto
Sber’s proposed use of Bitcoin, Ether and USDT as collateral added an institutional-adoption thread, while unusually active old Bitcoin wallets supplied a separate on-chain risk marker; neither was treated as the cause of the surface move.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1M at -0.32 volatility points, to 34.99%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
29 Aug 2026, 14:11 UTC to 30 Aug 2026, 14:11 UTC
Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News collection was incomplete; the retained events do not establish full coverage.
Confidencelow causal confidence
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 14:11 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 33.53%, 6.66 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 40.19%; 24-hour realised volatility was 19.30% and 30-day realised volatility was 35.41%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.02 volatility points to 34.24% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.15 volatility points to 41.14% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.37 volatility points to -0.87 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.22 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.32 volatility points at 1M, to 34.99%.
Universe roll: added 3SEP26; removed 30AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.37 volatility points to -0.87 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.22 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.7d
Smile rotation
31AUG26, +4.90 vol pts1.7d
Smile rotation
1SEP26, -1.71 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
31AUG26Expiry effect
0.7 days
78,880.72
+1219.85 USD
29.45%
+4.04 vol pts
+0.81 vol pts
+0.29 vol pts
1SEP26Expiry effect
1.7 days
78,878.72
+1206.35 USD
31.69%
+1.69 vol pts
-0.43 vol pts
-0.23 vol pts
2SEP26
2.7 days
78,901.24
+1217.89 USD
31.96%
+1.39 vol pts
+1.58 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
4SEP26
4.7 days
78,917.63
+1212.20 USD
33.52%
+0.36 vol pts
+1.09 vol pts
+0.13 vol pts
11SEP26
11.7 days
78,958.73
+1177.23 USD
33.54%
-0.16 vol pts
+0.80 vol pts
-0.10 vol pts
18SEP26
18.7 days
79,017.91
+1194.07 USD
35.04%
-0.29 vol pts
+0.84 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
25SEP26
25.7 days
79,059.7
+1177.36 USD
34.66%
-0.39 vol pts
+0.43 vol pts
-0.05 vol pts
30OCT26
60.7 days
79,438.49
+1199.72 USD
36.00%
-0.40 vol pts
+0.25 vol pts
+0.07 vol pts
27NOV26
88.7 days
79,763.6
+1226.49 USD
37.63%
-0.28 vol pts
+0.07 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
25DEC26
116.7 days
80,090.13
+1226.00 USD
38.64%
-0.27 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
+0.04 vol pts
26MAR27
207.7 days
81,009.31
+1239.21 USD
40.35%
-0.21 vol pts
+0.11 vol pts
+0.03 vol pts
25JUN27
298.7 days
82,030.29
+1240.26 USD
41.69%
-0.13 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
+0.07 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
31AUG26rotation towards calls · wing steepening1SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening2SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening4SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening11SEP26rotation towards calls18SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening25SEP26rotation towards calls30OCT26parallel shift lower27NOV26parallel shift lower25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
31AUG26
1SEP26
2SEP26
4SEP26
11SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
30OCT26
27NOV26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against US equity risk.
BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.5 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was low at 0.10.
Implied-volatility premium
BTC 30-day ATM IV was 36.73%, against VIX at 14.43: a 22.30-point spread and 2.55× ratio.
Realised-volatility regime
BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 45.92%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 10.58%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 74.9% of 223 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.104 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.376 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.22, 14.43 and 17.48.
As of 28 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.
Evidence and methodology
Crypto realised volatility uses 20 calendar days and sqrt(365); SPX uses 20 US sessions and sqrt(252). The two clocks are shown explicitly and the figures are contextual, not causal attribution.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-08-29 14:11:00 UTC → 2026-08-30 14:11:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Original report summary
Bitcoin rose 1.55 per cent over the 24-hour window, but the options market did not chase the move: one-week implied volatility added only 0.19 points and one-month volatility slipped. Skew became less defensive, while seven-day realised volatility remained above the one-week implied measure. The news backdrop offered useful institutional and on-chain context, though neither item provides a convincing explanation for the restrained repricing.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 33.53% · Δ +0.19 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -0.46 vol pts · Δ +0.72 vol pts
Wings: BTC 1W BF25 1.84 vol pts · Δ +0.02 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 33.53% · Δ +0.19 vol ptspercentile rank 7.8% by absolute move · full history (n=128)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -0.46 vol pts · Δ +0.72 vol ptspercentile rank 49.2% by absolute move · full history (n=128)
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 1.84 vol pts · Δ +0.02 vol ptspercentile rank 2.3% by absolute move · full history (n=128)
IV versus RV
BTC Unavailable
Unavailable readings: BTC IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 7.8% by absolute move · full history (n=128)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 49.2% by absolute move · full history (n=128)
BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 2.3% by absolute move · full history (n=128)
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 2SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 2SEP26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
31AUG26
-0.00410
+0.00770
+0.04770
+0.02000
+0.00450
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
1SEP26
-0.00030
-0.01130
-0.02310
-0.00940
+0.06060
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
2SEP26
+0.01920
-0.01520
+0.07730
+0.03740
-0.08220
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
4SEP26
+0.01630
-0.01180
+0.04590
+0.02560
-0.07470
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
11SEP26
-0.00440
+0.00290
-0.04580
-0.04330
+0.02060
rotation towards calls
18SEP26
+0.00090
+0.00300
-0.04610
-0.03870
-0.01590
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
25SEP26
+0.00040
+0.00110
-0.03320
-0.02770
-0.00530
rotation towards calls
30OCT26
-0.00780
+0.00710
+0.01770
+0.00390
+0.00870
parallel shift lower
27NOV26
+0.02030
-0.01000
-0.02060
-0.00460
-0.05810
parallel shift lower
25DEC26
+0.01110
-0.00450
+0.00230
+0.01250
-0.03340
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
+0.02670
-0.01070
-0.00930
-0.00170
-0.06200
parallel shift lower
25JUN27
-0.00360
+0.00410
+0.02480
+0.02450
-0.01070
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 30 Aug 2026, 14:11:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
