Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV

Name: Weekly BTC options surface changes through 2026-10-31
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

BTC spot fell 3.26%; Skew moved toward puts (-1.53 vol points); Wing premium increased (+0.24 vol points) over the weekly window.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 31 Oct 2026, 19:57 UTC · Window 24 Oct 2026–31 Oct 2026

Spot-index returns use validated exact seven-day endpoints for all assets. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 31 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

Generated timestamp: 2026-10-31T18:39:15+00:00

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-31 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-24 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-31 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

BTCSpot-index 7D -3.26%1W ATM IV 40.27%1W RR25 -5.41 vol pts1W BF25 +1.21 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +3.64 vol pts

Notable weekly move: BTC 1W ATM IV Δ +4.41 vol pts → 40.27% · percentile rank 87.2% by absolute move · 7-day moves · full history (n=39).

Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 24 Oct, 17:31 UTC to 31 Oct, 17:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-24: “Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV”

Previous publication cutoff 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 24 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks differ; numerical follow-through and prior-watch outcomes are unavailable.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 18fb5654171feffdc911f0c3de83ad40bd3c4cfe6438f469452073b82d71d3dc

Measured change since prior report

Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-10-24 edition is verified but ends at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC; this window requires 24 Oct, 17:31 UTC.

A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.

Next weekly cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 40.27 percent at 7 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Current level 40.27; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 35.86 percent at 7 Nov, 17:31 UTC. Current level 40.27; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 6e7e40e772f79de0d3b231461cb82678ce2dfb741ae316fd20d2cce734d0cc66

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/weekly/2026-10-24/18fb5654171feffdc911f0c3de83ad40bd3c4cfe6438f469452073b82d71d3dc.json · SHA-256 18fb5654171feffdc911f0c3de83ad40bd3c4cfe6438f469452073b82d71d3dc

Consumed endpoint proof: 056d8ea23d452504e2259feeefe87a538e25ef34b824ea5cb8dd87543f262f61

BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-31T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-11-07T17:31:00+00:00.

Chart notes

Chart reading: BTC +4.41 vol points between the stored weekly endpoints.
Relative-value reading: The reading measures ATM implied volatility at the chart’s stated tenor.
Combined surface read: ATM IV rose (BTC); RR25 moved toward puts (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC); 1W IV was above 7D RV (BTC).

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 6e7e40e772f79de0d3b231461cb82678ce2dfb741ae316fd20d2cce734d0cc66.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:7af4532f7fb82ef94ece3fa5cf77ef39e82e5f39deed2b1e3c0587733f600e99`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:066a45e41d0cbe5043beb846e16e8e7bb9cbd570209e807b3f5c813783f41c97`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4716f37fce3b7661a28c4210b2e18f8fab3301fcfb2f987b19773960be9ebf4d`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:2d4200f7b7d9d40b62f0966ffc5dd675e12b04f6992ec27a76526b699174f197`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:7eddea84ebbfb30b48d284af1c0fa6bb25d8cb098a0259adada35b63e94a2967`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ce2408c4dd2c77fd625b3a786b5277c0a2f4ca21539d14c2261a866b40b5f0dd`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:1b96a4099e9f9bfd0ff8017f789b5072577102609221cdfb823589ee6c42b2fc`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:ca16aad245f0d47e8faf21842e11d59c9774f94d99b058163c93e77c0ca29bba`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d93e99034c5a28a985a2d49f9f73904e716a3b8b2ef80c6c2cb7e2b4fe93d90e`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:1668dd20a93727a956e04b464f4617dd4bd6da358f19170bbc4869e9a19fcfa0`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:e188c6023fc0f2548a3ad99231796eea4c9ff228d2ca132ae84a0a2f681b3064`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:220e170e9c7b513762151006f0e6acc2516d291290286cb8e15f9bc773aa858f`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:646479f7c0395aa967f729e7aefed9d94f28facf8a11343c5885f32acb4ad523`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:da6b7dbc9bd290f9c0551f79dbd41e7dc91b5fef6902aaf868c279675fb9dcb7`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d06f6d970c2911135fd9c574c0dfa6c17bcd18d1f98272e8c7c432957dc685cb`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:41028c97adc7d7e370a11e1750705ba8a6dc9851d622b2344389d71a9e8b0b47`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:f10d64ecab82ac7aad87565488a58333685eb596cfdc6c192f2e3bba0182cdca`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3c08ce036736a2a446dd4e5048038cd8c1b0150810d7d1774c15b67b730609c4`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:f758acc227e29b26b73e6c603f41ac8457984c61969c6b96da4fabdcd2446d88`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:ae7ee7df2937b1d6e5d260b461e7d604f857bb86c41b00cc73a0e2f30e2b6410`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9fa4393baaa4ee40b8fdc54438b1f49e4076b3c1a34411c5406c52db653bd17d`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:e8ffa8995ed9076e65bfc167a253bead474d7326db80160a9ecc4cff1d3ccc29`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:33c5f2302fd1fd29e390dc4fb7d9fef456cde65be12f6730e83f8bf4301e1e8f`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ed0f060f455771f0d5077fd6a7db853ff8aabdb2fdbefde9981dbd0051d58c01`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:69b28c23d66e0b1edea4f9d3298536ab7cf847d2da0fad16bf2cb4f8ba0c37ba`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:76aa1bf01e59e4eb305c1be59d14564408dc9bec32748ef5ca315628d179d83e`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a5ff7b5ea8a57760b27fefc7ee6c3b460bd1daf4dfdd31d03b38c95ef24654e8`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:e0f6b99199e8899eb8907ed10f7be738e6eb08ffcd340142ed116905aed469e1`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:f387dc182fdabb9805e99fa6758164fc920c08bfcf3c544230c34d9a49633f4f`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:07386b95e99ef980b30849ec565724568a37f222bac3477001f9a95995ef7bbf`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:7d79a40bde50aa4f217e068e26f891a1670b49bd38d4df6396b4d93f37443187`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:b97feb8a5cf05c5928671b16f345817ad16af26d9fe1dba596ae83d67a1c6bf5`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6a42d714cb4a62f67f5736aa29c7da74951c37d53d23b9482de92d10703bbf0f`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:3f71b185a4ea4287e9dede37f3465430937d205084a6382ce067e540deff45cf`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:41337ca7d438a88f19973659ccb746c13559203a185ac3ebc3faa973fd1b6e75`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:60df0e5560be0f73ae47fd9fc97aade5f5c54148c26def66c0c90ea768005d45`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:2a09b7430bb1ead9aef373eb08bcdffc23f0262f9c3b4065b6e7929cbbc46215`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:d086c995d06c2485cb06c685e2a60a26f06a896ecd602ec4bd8218d56a3b15b0`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:86f6d5b85742da886ac6365d90643207a6e05ad5a28875cb661a320375b0e6a5`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:cdb83178c70073ec6c04969044d58966458035c90bc2bb6377e714bd116b0b23`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:949dbeae6ab9c8095b475ae6df4941204fe56ddc63659433ccb1b9383376726f`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fb6e0eca805dd4cbde8ab2ef573e6bf680ccb045186896e2dd05e8c47ea97232`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:05573314f46c1d9dd4b0190bb62d92f32266b2d999af10a8087c5189523f3e0e`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:937d1aa72b5aab0d46946c95cc1ae5baa460a494a704fb316e732e968882d4fa`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:adfd725b40637c814c6dacf5af3c521981195448635ac47ffe64948de831024b`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:bfb3eec70d8aab4b550e788bc3b1eec54405bda3eb25c5ed13b7b432fa85de4e`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:bd3a8dbf6e64339f0cb7112483c1f064f622e7dfee5e00f528340cfb7eefed95`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a2fd4face2737f2a24c8472e4d4c958b8c61b28db74486b3562e010dfbef6fc2`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:92aad606da7706e388942f63ca43ee34db3d0d71a729057f34ab2a0df8029a2f`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:32807b1506b3233077cc4e9d8417df167deb7a10211353f98f64bb7350d18d73`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4dd62f1d00faeda4a9b028305f4c588f75a78337f98b683f56c9b9d9a28122bc`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-24 → 2026-10-24 2026-09-24T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:0e4633ecfe664d80e87e28c28b50b939c4bdd687ea79fe65105583c232d7b545`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:adbfd668e9bc1b516550ed4814e5045a2838fcec7fdd36a53ba2a74dfeac5c31`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-24 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-24T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cc0f0b5b59fa1edbe723cc5cc2463fa65ea285bf46df70ff84e593ea47d71e37`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

The week in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

These dated entries organise news across the calendar week. Related daily report links do not identify the stored reports reused in the weekly analysis; those inputs are listed separately.

Sunday 25 October

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

Monday 26 October

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

Tuesday 27 October

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

Wednesday 28 October

Selected reporting for the session

Related daily report

The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4% as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief GainThe Defiant · 18:12 UTC

Thursday 29 October

Selected reporting for the session

Related daily report

Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

$11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It MeansDecrypt · 17:15 UTC

Friday 30 October

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

Saturday 31 October

Selected reporting for the session

Related daily report

The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Binance Confirms […] BTC SAFU Transfer After Hack”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Binance Confirms 7,499 BTC SAFU Transfer After HackThe Defiant · 16:22 UTC

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

43.50 vol points

Measurement 31 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

42.66 vol points

Measurement 31 Oct 2026, 17:29:55 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 65s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-0.84 vol points

As of 31 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +4.41 volatility points, to 40.27%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4% as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief GainThe Defiant · 18:12 UTC
macro · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: up 4.41 points to 40.27%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: ATM IV 1W: up 4.41 points to 40.27%
Additional coverage (1)
- Decrypt: $11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means
02
Binance Confirms 7,499 BTC SAFU Transfer After HackThe Defiant · 16:22 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 6NOV26: -2701.07 USD (-3.37%) to 77529.46 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 6NOV26: -2701.07 USD (-3.37%) to 77529.46 USD

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 40.27%, 3.64 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 36.63%; 24-hour realised volatility was 27.38% and 30-day realised volatility was 33.13%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +2.11 volatility points to 38.98% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.65% (+0.30 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.71 volatility points to -4.68 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.06 volatility points to 1.21 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +4.41 volatility points at 1W, to 40.27%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.43% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -3.26% over seven days.

Weekly universe roll: added 1NOV26, 20NOV26, 29JAN27, 2NOV26, 3NOV26, 4NOV26; removed 25OCT26, 26OCT26, 27OCT26, 28OCT26, 30OCT26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +4.41 vol pts

Largest eligible smile rotation

6NOV26, -4.38 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -1.53 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.24 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

25DEC26, -0.2277 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

24SEP27, -0.1370 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

Tenor	Week end (vol %)	Week start (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	40.27	35.86	+4.41 vol pts	+12.30%
2W	38.91	38.22	+0.69 vol pts	+1.81%
1M	37.77	36.54	+1.23 vol pts	+3.37%
3M	37.92	37.59	+0.33 vol pts	+0.88%
6M	38.65	38.35	+0.30 vol pts	+0.78%
9M	39.07	38.92	+0.15 vol pts	+0.39%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

ATM IV · 10-28 to 10-29

1W, +10.84 vol pts

ATM IV · 10-28 to 10-29

2W, +6.60 vol pts

RR25 · 10-28 to 10-29

1W, -6.44 vol pts

RR25 · 10-28 to 10-29

2W, -4.23 vol pts

ATM IV · 10-28 to 10-29

1M, +4.19 vol pts

ATM IV · 10-29 to 10-30

1W, -3.85 vol pts

Tenor	ATM IV low	ATM IV high	ATM IV range	RR25 range	BF25 range
1W	34.33%	46.46%	12.13 vol pts	6.44 vol pts	0.93 vol pts
2W	35.52%	42.12%	6.60 vol pts	4.23 vol pts	0.59 vol pts
1M	35.11%	39.30%	4.19 vol pts	2.03 vol pts	0.27 vol pts
3M	36.74%	37.92%	1.18 vol pts	1.58 vol pts	0.10 vol pts
6M	37.76%	38.71%	0.95 vol pts	0.97 vol pts	0.10 vol pts
9M	38.48%	39.16%	0.68 vol pts	0.82 vol pts	0.10 vol pts
1Y	38.84%	39.47%	0.63 vol pts	0.82 vol pts	0.09 vol pts

Daily report trail

The stored reports behind the weekly path.

7 stored daily report inputs; 8 separate surface observations. Calendar news-diary entries do not establish which daily reports were reused.

Daily reports qualify by their snapshot time inside the comparison window. A report published earlier on the first date can fall outside that window.

The 24 October 2026 daily snapshot falls outside this weekly comparison window and is excluded.

Date	Stored daily report input	Largest daily ATM move	News outcome
25 October 2026	Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.40 points to 36.82%	2W: -1.40 vol pts to 36.82%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
26 October 2026	Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility rise 1.70 points to 37.47%	1W: +1.70 vol pts to 37.47%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
27 October 2026	Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.24 points to 36.32%	2W: -1.24 vol pts to 36.32%	No sufficiently relevant context identified
28 October 2026	Bitcoin options show higher 3M RR25 skew	3M: -0.25 vol pts to 36.80%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
29 October 2026	Bitcoin options show lower 2W ATM IV	2W: -1.07 vol pts to 35.34%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
30 October 2026	Bitcoin options show higher 1W ATM IV	1W: +6.08 vol pts to 41.86%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
31 October 2026	BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV falls 1.59 volatility points	1W: -1.59 vol pts to 40.27%	No sufficiently relevant context identified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.71 volatility points to -4.68 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 1W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

Tenor	Week end (vol %)	Week start (vol %)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-5.41	-3.88	-1.53 vol pts
2W	-5.63	-4.72	-0.91 vol pts
1M	-5.05	-5.29	+0.24 vol pts
3M	-4.20	-3.49	-0.71 vol pts
6M	-3.13	-2.48	-0.65 vol pts
9M	-2.59	-1.87	-0.72 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.06 volatility points to 1.21 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1W.

Tenor	Week end (vol %)	Week start (vol %)	Change (vol pts)
1W	1.21	0.97	+0.24 vol pts
2W	1.22	1.16	+0.06 vol pts
1M	1.25	1.29	-0.04 vol pts
3M	1.20	1.17	+0.03 vol pts
6M	1.16	1.14	+0.02 vol pts
9M	1.09	1.08	+0.01 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

Expiry	Time left	Forward end (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV end	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
6NOV26	5.6 days	77,529.46	-2701.07 USD	40.89%	+2.30 vol pts	-0.60 vol pts	+0.15 vol pts
13NOV26	12.6 days	77,605.84	-2711.63 USD	39.14%	+1.88 vol pts	-0.79 vol pts	-0.17 vol pts
27NOV26	26.6 days	77,758.3	-2713.09 USD	37.68%	+1.29 vol pts	+0.38 vol pts	-0.04 vol pts
25DEC26	54.6 days	78,101.03	-2744.74 USD	38.07%	+0.99 vol pts	-1.14 vol pts	+0.15 vol pts
26MAR27	145.6 days	79,161.83	-2707.00 USD	38.35%	+0.33 vol pts	-0.64 vol pts	+0.03 vol pts
25JUN27	236.6 days	80,243.31	-2767.76 USD	38.93%	+0.16 vol pts	-0.84 vol pts	+0.02 vol pts
24SEP27	327.6 days	81,352.04	-2773.95 USD	39.22%	+0.07 vol pts	-0.62 vol pts	0.00 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

6NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

13NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

27NOV26parallel shift higher · wing steepening

25DEC26rotation towards puts

26MAR27rotation towards puts

25JUN27rotation towards puts

24SEP27limited movement

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

6NOV26

13NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 31 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 31 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 31 Oct 2026, 17:29:55 UTC; observed receipt 31 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC; ingested 31 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 31 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 65s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Lead signal · 31 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W ATM IV 40.27% · Δ +4.41 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 87.2% by absolute move · full history (n=39); 7-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-24; rolling periods overlap

Original report summary

BTC 1W ATM IV is 40.27 percent, compared with 35.86 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-31 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-24 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-31 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
6NOV26	+0.01840	-0.01580	-0.11320	-0.08530	-0.08320	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
13NOV26	+0.00380	-0.02370	-0.05500	-0.02140	+0.04380	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
27NOV26	+0.01640	-0.02600	-0.06950	-0.05060	-0.02700	parallel shift higher, wing steepening
25DEC26	+0.07510	-0.04470	-0.00280	+0.02640	-0.22770	rotation towards puts
26MAR27	+0.03710	-0.01590	-0.13510	-0.08310	-0.09310	rotation towards puts
25JUN27	+0.08530	-0.03500	-0.07690	+0.00900	-0.17630	rotation towards puts
24SEP27	+0.11010	-0.03490	-0.13700	-0.06630	-0.22190	limited movement

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	36.63%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 31 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot: 31 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Week-opening snapshot: 24 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Comparison: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Snapshot selection: The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs: 7 stored daily report inputs, dated 25 October 2026, 26 October 2026, 27 October 2026, 28 October 2026, 29 October 2026, 30 October 2026, 31 October 2026. Surface observations and calendar news-diary entries are separate.
Original stored input methodology
The weekly edition reuses 7 stored daily reports from 2026-10-25 through 2026-10-31; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail. Daily report trail coverage is complete. Input resolution: 2026-10-24: outside window (Stored publication cutoff lies outside the inclusive weekly window). Published historical inputs are SHA-256 verified and pinned with their manifest; offline replay reuses those exact bytes. Daily surface observations are separate from stored daily reports.
Calculations and commentary: Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims: The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

Continue through Derivasys

Reports, live data and methodology.

All reports Latest daily Latest weekly Live dashboard Methodology What is SVI?

Previous publication · research context

Measured change since prior report

Next weekly cutoff: measurable checks

The week in markets.

Macro

Crypto

Macro

Crypto

Macro

Crypto

Macro

Crypto

Macro

Crypto

Macro

Crypto

Macro

Crypto

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest weekly surface events

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The stored reports behind the weekly path.

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Weekly surface movement heatmap

The measurement behind the lead chart

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Reports, live data and methodology.

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