Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility rise 1.70 points to 37.47%

Name: BTC options surface changes for 2026-10-26
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

BTC spot fell 0.59%; Skew moved toward puts (-0.01 vol points); Wing premium increased (+0.05 vol points).

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 26 Oct 2026, 19:57 UTC

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 26 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

Generated timestamp: 2026-10-26T19:05:14+00:00

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-26 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-25 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-26 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

BTCSpot-index 24h -0.59%1W ATM IV 37.47%1W RR25 -3.10 vol pts1W BF25 +2.06 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +5.07 vol pts

Lead move: BTC 1W ATM IV Δ +1.70 vol pts → 37.47% · percentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=22).

Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility rise 1.70 points to 37.47%. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 25 Oct, 17:31 UTC to 26 Oct, 17:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-25: “Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.40 points to 36.82%”

Previous publication cutoff 25 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 25 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 59c4b124e11910931fe33dd8f9758aff9676fe4ffa1f5ff31914ac726614ba5d

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-25 daily edition.

BTC 1W ATM IV: prior change -0.09 → current change +1.70 volatility points; direction reversed.
BTC spot-index return: prior change +0.74 → current change -0.59 percent; direction reversed.
BTC 1W RR25: prior change +0.79 → current change -0.01 volatility points; direction reversed.
BTC 1W BF25: prior change +0.07 → current change +0.05 volatility points; same direction.

BTC 2W ATM IV ≤ 36.82 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 26 Oct, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed 37.56 percent).
BTC 2W ATM IV ≥ 38.22 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 26 Oct, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed 37.56 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 37.47 percent at 27 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Current level 37.47; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 35.77 percent at 27 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Current level 37.47; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 1f57a6e2cf91c3091e2b7f5cec6d071be9cc5d52cfd5597382613e0c99fb2046

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-25/59c4b124e11910931fe33dd8f9758aff9676fe4ffa1f5ff31914ac726614ba5d.json · SHA-256 59c4b124e11910931fe33dd8f9758aff9676fe4ffa1f5ff31914ac726614ba5d

Consumed endpoint proof: 016ee006dc970faae1e88477b452558b752a921ee48ac2ff76c9677e0319f190

BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00.

Chart notes

Chart reading: BTC +1.70 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: The reading measures ATM implied volatility at the chart’s stated tenor.
Combined surface read: ATM IV rose (BTC); RR25 moved toward puts (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC); 1W IV was above 7D RV (BTC).

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Monday 26 October

Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility rise 1.70 points to 37.47%

The 1W ATM IV change for BTC was +1.70 volatility points over the stored comparison. Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Morning Minute: Bitcoin Breaks Below […] as Iran Fears Hit the Weekend”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “A […] million bitcoin bet is targeting a post-midterm election breakout to […]”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Morning Minute: Bitcoin Breaks Below […] as Iran Fears Hit the Weekend”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “A […] million bitcoin bet is targeting a post-midterm election breakout to […]”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

A $68 million bitcoin bet is targeting a post-midterm election breakout to $90,000CoinDesk · 11:53 UTC

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

41.35 vol points

Measurement 26 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

40.48 vol points

Measurement 26 Oct 2026, 17:29:58 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-0.87 vol points

As of 26 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +1.70 volatility points, to 37.47%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 37.47%, 5.07 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 32.40%; 24-hour realised volatility was 39.07% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.24%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.03 volatility points to 37.13% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.23% (+0.11 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.38 volatility points to -3.22 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.06 volatility points to 2.18 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.70 volatility points at 1W, to 37.47%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -0.59% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.01% over seven days.

Universe roll: no additions; removed 26OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

29OCT26, -3.63 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +1.70 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, +0.74 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, -0.17 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

30OCT26, -0.0907 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, +0.0766 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	37.47	35.77	+1.70 vol pts	+4.75%
2W	37.56	36.82	+0.74 vol pts	+2.01%
1M	36.35	35.71	+0.64 vol pts	+1.79%
3M	37.46	37.28	+0.18 vol pts	+0.48%
6M	38.23	38.12	+0.11 vol pts	+0.29%
9M	38.85	38.84	+0.01 vol pts	+0.03%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.38 volatility points to -3.22 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-3.10	-3.09	-0.01 vol pts
2W	-3.54	-4.28	+0.74 vol pts
1M	-4.02	-4.75	+0.73 vol pts
3M	-3.08	-3.41	+0.33 vol pts
6M	-2.34	-2.44	+0.10 vol pts
9M	-1.82	-1.87	+0.05 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.06 volatility points to 2.18 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	2.06	2.01	+0.05 vol pts
2W	2.00	2.16	-0.16 vol pts
1M	2.26	2.43	-0.17 vol pts
3M	2.32	2.33	-0.01 vol pts
6M	2.28	2.30	-0.02 vol pts
9M	2.18	2.15	+0.03 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

1.6d

Smile rotation

28OCT26, -2.98 vol pts

0.6d

Smile rotation

27OCT26, -1.60 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
27OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	80,127.87	-539.06 USD	30.26%	-1.21 vol pts	+0.15 vol pts	-0.57 vol pts
28OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	80,154.47	-534.54 USD	31.63%	-0.07 vol pts	-0.29 vol pts	-0.13 vol pts
29OCT26	2.6 days	80,163.37	-546.98 USD	35.12%	+1.85 vol pts	-0.67 vol pts	-0.09 vol pts
30OCT26	3.6 days	80,198.34	-517.83 USD	34.96%	+1.25 vol pts	-0.43 vol pts	+0.09 vol pts
6NOV26	10.6 days	80,263.1	-524.07 USD	38.34%	+1.08 vol pts	+0.61 vol pts	-0.03 vol pts
13NOV26	17.6 days	80,349.35	-519.66 USD	37.05%	+0.77 vol pts	+0.98 vol pts	-0.28 vol pts
27NOV26	31.6 days	80,501.86	-532.37 USD	36.30%	+0.66 vol pts	+0.72 vol pts	-0.16 vol pts
25DEC26	59.6 days	80,852.99	-536.09 USD	36.93%	+0.18 vol pts	+0.64 vol pts	-0.04 vol pts
26MAR27	150.6 days	81,914.45	-543.24 USD	37.86%	+0.17 vol pts	+0.07 vol pts	-0.03 vol pts
25JUN27	241.6 days	83,032.95	-584.23 USD	38.66%	+0.02 vol pts	+0.12 vol pts	0.00 vol pts
24SEP27	332.6 days	84,177.51	-584.87 USD	39.12%	-0.02 vol pts	-0.07 vol pts	+0.07 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

27OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

28OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

29OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

6NOV26rotation towards calls

13NOV26rotation towards calls

27NOV26rotation towards calls

25DEC26rotation towards calls

26MAR27parallel shift higher

25JUN27limited movement

24SEP27limited movement

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

27OCT26

28OCT26

29OCT26

30OCT26

6NOV26

13NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 1.8 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.63.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.67%, against VIX at 19.45: a 16.22-point spread and 1.83× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 27.49%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 9.92%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 19.8% of 262 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.627 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.388 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 18.70, 19.45 and 20.48.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 23 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 26 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 26 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 26 Oct 2026, 17:29:58 UTC; observed receipt 26 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC; ingested 26 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 26 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-26 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-25 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-26 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 26 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W ATM IV 37.47% · Δ +1.70 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-25

Original report summary

BTC 1W ATM IV is 37.47 percent, compared with 35.77 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 37.47% · Δ +1.70 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.10 vol pts · Δ -0.01 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 37.47% / 7D RV 32.40% · spread +5.07 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 37.47% · Δ +1.70 vol ptspercentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-25

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -3.10 vol pts · Δ -0.01 vol ptspercentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-25

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 2.06 vol pts · Δ +0.05 vol ptspercentile rank 18.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-25

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 37.47% / 7D RV 32.40% · spread +5.07 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-25

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=41); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-25

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 18.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-25

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 1f57a6e2cf91c3091e2b7f5cec6d071be9cc5d52cfd5597382613e0c99fb2046.

Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility rise 1.70 points to 37.47% Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a1709f93cbcf547d2da58113b638cc5906f63fe8af3b6fa20a8ed0c1c44a1a8a`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:abf98b079d2529127d3d5df5ab2fa3b06a6ae9dadec821a64b302b9e2e13364c`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:55fa1e496425b0164b416d826c58eda7a083d69d690fad3d7b28189572db7bb2`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a54362355cff7b7b71d6b6a30155d8123225c4318a2820c9a4374cc65d04ce5b`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ed1c09c31994133a9056ff1c8219d127f2f7bb0b983a36478dbaa3895093a2a6`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d910225358497ea11118fd59e5ec01e494fdb15d27b8f8ccb29783c28bd7eed2`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6e9ea24aab1f8414c7a519379cd98817d7756d731fff40cd541a9c3de621ea6a`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1a1fa9beeb9336b44fd76e265bd4259c33bce3a811cd41395b615481f92b97d6`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a6933bb9f743ad63d914eaa6d87c714e1cd2ff2c0202adfc77eb405a73536750`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2dcfcd6de473a53cce99d71bcdfd58db08c45eda72398df212e68862a96804c1`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f670734081f06e65a93e934a51cdf844e0669d3a15d8ea1d56b8d905344c71b0`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ae35051c76964775df8d5baccba29fb235b4169aa399a11e9aad09369d9e4047`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d86d6206304ef37f7e5f7872bffa454ae9f8f2cf9a60b9171c8c4bd54aa3363b`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:743dbcb3a151099082105259c47c0e61b0c5fcb0e7583091d88b4802a9b5f9b5`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3651c5b1ce06a48c032997507d3c581a4b3e1a959057f72db7b1d1198f1bbf90`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a4945bdfa98afca3a0371df39f76a467b93cdd3ffca79d11b83338659b5c7506`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3f6a95baba977cd714e6522d7f6a8a6754c5aab2c2f52d5a1bf943b119e5f05d`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:761b94f58e8440e04888015d427c4df4b86bd9864bad9a726618819548a36217`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:73664e94f760b37dc273cef4222a7127bcaf10e6c50173a15d6887a16ca26f7c`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ddd630634459d76b124dca45cdb1087779a36061c4b543e77e3d36498f21d287`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ec4463643fdb77a608a9667ace43a98b4c92b0551ac64d52da471bdf96582e9c`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ccbb0a549191c1c15de8027810d3f5930329b0eeeb6e834c1022f2cccbf238ed`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e91e62ba62e947e279b40dc7aa0a67fb5073d7ba43d1a2add6226f351eb699f2`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cee3a0545a46b5752420fb8b6aecf3e16370cfeb5637d7ccdf369a01b361bc30`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4b83971c65feee796af1d42312e0a27e1b872b78aac683d767775b89fe9c5969`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8bd6362b358ee603dcd7a28d1e9c74969a32b0a26df03919b232c186eda72402`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:67dcd480db8474bf64f40095d0c361919c8f05bb8aadcb5920176c44b1e19b93`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3a94dd8737a039a5c96662bbff97267e849dcae99c34a7459b722c3f6a16e24b`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0a274eb0a1cc28b230dfc2f78816336b4bb661c932d206ab77ef2e29e73f680f`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:df1c2b336c84eed1b1da7bf000afb875e1803f38006271faa7b17e3dab5cb013`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a2502aa1063b56376306b37bbfcb68ada244339bde49f6489fccb3e96afe9d9d`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5a73e8e82f50c089f7a196102fe321b9620978895277d4cbbd879b8c16a1e320`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6ea5156cd08a02947d94ef1e705fbe3eea58a7d99fc6142395c491eb3288dde1`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:17cfdcfd3dd0707d82ad76a656a879916bff6ab5f7dd12b509ef5e820c054628`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d40d994b421440a94fa6169a886c877e8dd5e1da10ce9b3af0ee0aa374ab69bf`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6747b38b21099a45264eb00bfe609ebe760e64568dba004560de6a23d1111b0a`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0644839a00caf4c00b11d81518429b00832447a602e694289a53b60a1da0691c`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d744e0441bbeb4ee3a2c81a3134c2c54310eddab8864566f387d2e0ee5d28628`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:55510b2f810e2a383b3eecb0ee2faeda7dd2646d244d6b459b075ce92503e7a3`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:03f066675b2b61eb3bf1f479b251dc9f2ef4d0cf81a69b6a05725371306a106f`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:decb7ec825489641d83f7c167eedd5dea7972003adfd244f3a489b94b2de8925`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:12e1f797e3631ffecb6f7d3d2306dd7b9f83b00604f6871464f7bc5866b1aed8`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1135d3a9fab8d9351d284c8e9b803f89fc98780ed15f3398426b45c61c8a5765`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:aa780777f0001459b5dffbcaf96ec8e73ad94a0e28b1106bfb745f7d128aecb2`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:72cc131b3201ca6a25d51ef5e870e8e7487c622ccef01cde54bef1c206bc5119`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c12caf07463b5ea9e856c2d44aaf711142d11094bc464ef3eb94e56cbb469fdc`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:71adee66f7ac80bd3d853d3ca3baf019fed26e184ecb3e3dd885d13899170d3b`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:56778968eee62743049da225943e9a294879d74ba6dc7c890eaabe304aabbd4d`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:009d831fd80c74d6d46b2f87b01035320febdb92c1907863c54670d2ba9532ce`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:42be702d3515779c7f6b0c8f3a1cd85865fdb8f24f65d6cd93722ec1bf45e25f`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:732956bb268ecf6d8289b3fa24b574939dab46706831cc17ab2d1028d3fe219f`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-25 → 2026-10-25 2026-09-25T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:46d5432b8a21f6a9a257c8a5a62ad187f80cd1dd8416a09201832e379e6f43e1`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	41 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:10b7d92972c2036f981a2833b8bbce71e206aca32db78adffb75d25480f2f00e`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-25 2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-25T17:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ecb49418f1adf48d31ac69f730db175f27ea98f1cff772c85f5dccd6b1ebfa6b`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 30OCT26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
27OCT26	+0.01210	-0.02980	+0.00910	+0.00320	-0.00940	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
28OCT26	+0.01700	-0.02310	-0.02650	-0.00380	-0.07010	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
29OCT26	+0.00900	-0.01450	-0.04300	-0.01940	-0.00910	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26	+0.02620	-0.02070	-0.01570	-0.00080	-0.09070	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
6NOV26	+0.02210	-0.01740	+0.04900	+0.02690	-0.05760	rotation towards calls
13NOV26	+0.00710	-0.01530	+0.05100	+0.03060	+0.02440	rotation towards calls
27NOV26	+0.01110	-0.01030	+0.07660	+0.03940	-0.01940	rotation towards calls
25DEC26	-0.03130	+0.01810	-0.06890	-0.09000	+0.07250	rotation towards calls
26MAR27	-0.02110	+0.01240	-0.04040	-0.05210	+0.04770	parallel shift higher
25JUN27	+0.02140	-0.01400	+0.02810	+0.04250	-0.03530	limited movement
24SEP27	-0.00400	-0.00380	+0.07160	+0.10190	-0.00130	limited movement

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma27OCT26, 0.000405 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay27OCT26, -325.871622 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001871 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 315.030483 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.280754 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	32.40%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 26 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 26 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 25 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

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Previous publication · research context

Prior watch: measured outcome

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market event

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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