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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV

BTC spot fell 2.02%; Skew moved toward calls (+0.86 vol points); Wing premium was unchanged over the weekly window.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Window 17 Oct 2026–24 Oct 2026

Spot-index returns use validated exact seven-day endpoints for all assets. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Generated timestamp:

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-17 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

  • BTCSpot-index 7D -2.02%1W ATM IV 36.64%1W RR25 -3.60 vol pts1W BF25 +2.00 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +4.72 vol pts

Notable weekly move: BTC 1W ATM IV Δ +5.28 vol pts → 36.64% · percentile rank 86.1% by absolute move · 7-day moves · full history (n=36).

1W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

1W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. BTC: Current 36.64, Previous 31.36.CurrentPreviousBTC36.6431.360.0019.7939.57

Current: 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W36.6431.36
2W38.7233.49
1M37.1935.76
3M37.7936.67
6M38.3737.69
9M38.9638.22
1YUnavailableUnavailable
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-17: “Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls further toward puts”

Previous publication cutoff 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 4a9e8a29cdbbd7127e081bea71389ae4bcc9b6b6dcaff8261cc6c7010c69fc80

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-17 weekly edition.

  • BTC 1W ATM IV: prior change +0.60 → current change +5.28 volatility points; same direction.
  • BTC spot-index return: prior change -2.14 → current change -2.02 percent; same direction.
  • BTC 1W RR25: prior change -1.44 → current change +0.86 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 1W BF25: prior change +0.30 → current change 0.00 volatility points; one or both windows unchanged.
  • BTC 1W RR25 ≤ -4.46 volatility points (hold the observed endpoint) at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed -3.60 volatility points).
  • BTC 1W RR25 ≥ -3.02 volatility points (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed -3.60 volatility points).

Next weekly cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 36.64 percent at . Current level 36.64; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 31.36 percent at . Current level 36.64; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 18fb5654171feffdc911f0c3de83ad40bd3c4cfe6438f469452073b82d71d3dc

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/weekly/2026-10-17/4a9e8a29cdbbd7127e081bea71389ae4bcc9b6b6dcaff8261cc6c7010c69fc80.json · SHA-256 4a9e8a29cdbbd7127e081bea71389ae4bcc9b6b6dcaff8261cc6c7010c69fc80

Consumed endpoint proof: 017715d18d8a7daa758acc6ecd9d2f6a4c8d1220c3234b67869a7082c2f16a6f

  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-31T16:31:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-31T16:31:00+00:00.
Chart notes
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 18fb5654171feffdc911f0c3de83ad40bd3c4cfe6438f469452073b82d71d3dc.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:6ecdf952587d4ccd2b55cb7108ec1dc29408e7de92da340b5ad2b2e74b680f75
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:823ab508d389ec6a438da90e77c146d447028ef92bdd7e8061492039f658ec36
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5113a14f853815f6430a08c935dda9474f3d9f7f2ed1a52bd3c96d101917e72b
BTC 1W bf25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:8c264593e257008b35910dfd51e156a5770e12e568acfc4e993abaaea0a0c014
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:02efeb83063dc8e98a565ef04d9f39e6021485a8a6c74062c6222666be8ffd8b
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ebaa075ba91dc59973b38e7344822a6e047533c61e3ff6b3e7aa84a96256e8ab
BTC 1W rr25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:9d536b9204a70ad1818943281bfdff05e4e3ca074926b0b524eb060d14f1cea0
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:7b55ee908c32e672d7ab300e99197e90830a838272c27c1258a8ea5883f3520e
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:17a271bea1f84ac2acf68ab03ab3fe9e7077bc9514e5d3b616cd898d31b0ff91
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:49f6669830f8ad6846ef408aeae82aeb03c977a51c54684d149020488f9f0c3a
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:4a8dde399802dc4c79afd3dc58511a77027a7d30f91102befe58e729bc35945e
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c0fb8786b37962ccc277aa6ae667b8bcf8ad006f21a9bdeaeb90e5d0c4491e2c
BTC 2W bf25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:82ae4cab041de7a7d630422d9b4a6eaf8ec46fa16977d837af94b5f482619356
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:023fd86a4c20356a8877f38b7ec9f18c0cfd450a4fc7cd144bb6158998debfe7
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2aa6775552b6c35cfc8e1dd3ab632a64a029f1e4af2b9424078e06512db2d01c
BTC 2W rr25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:b1777487e5a7b25806d230667c5802f9e8ef8b67be4e8a204b1507a0dd7c319f
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:1ab130ab7516f81d48131464640785c461ee44d793e567de3051fcd2f15cbfe9
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6ab22de72aa62bc3616cbf62f6d84724405b788f1eb4c4bfbc75a26abc936a0e
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:dfc39be4324c23891881aee671ff4a851b2420e21c125fee4a805d61d716f028
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:451f57a8a411c035d255f874adc8a360714d0a5d7c292838a0e3bd9352876ac9
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:be417bcaadc3bb3d375d0d6be65a794c9204a0c14a8f1f482074db61cb74f6a1
BTC 1M bf25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:f5a6a8d38e42abc94e644801b528ff51d9fd2950047768a71270fdacda229af3
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:380f174dc481fa07249ba1b9acca066b0b56ea4aa2bc69d0aa8cd9edb0d90b06
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:11d950675dea1964118e080ca37681d84cd2a772c421bea2bc6cb3a4e4375fef
BTC 1M rr25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:bc08ba9e8fe4c416e4c5052d4ea535aa150903ccb894e90d2c400c5933722906
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:948db4cf321dc4d031ce33aff34aab78bfd3f0ad04efe10dfb27a5abc2d73b58
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:178b50650cdfa79fc4b4db7a7289405442b3753780433a78dd80b72b208e3b12
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:149ecd002bafb91ae31aaa895be5ab5472225beefc06dfcff0e6deae22178e12
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:a741f16e2fb0c66223f553fd0d09ac4a3de0577e066295a7e77278f8bc4624c1
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:71c8c568b2da109896240c0189b2078ad38d7e2ff035dae0ddec609817481573
BTC 3M bf25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:102eea4fc8e32afa652de9620f883749e82bf588efce186de41ac801c21bee25
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:4c5786eafb2f11da524e7a56cd8170d5402757020ac6c1ab6176678c8222ab4a
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:207daac5ad91d47aa3d443d6b61d664579b81037a31771d39c336184bd076250
BTC 3M rr25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:ced0ac5228991786fd8e8ff6c5eacfe5874f500b31f8e97ed4088421950891a1
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:ddefedcdbc842406bd5cd9b507be04bff302fd6ae9602170a60890153ea3707f
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d1328eb1fbe23dcdc26d7a5c4c8fc10b8ea997082d49957b379a4962c395b588
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:bfef6180bddb46ee8ffffe0d3196c5819836f8c3d701337b79cb961b20b68691
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:4e5348af1e797c67cbbbe3657c7b733d6ad6181e737e9f9f0d1c9b3f393a0469
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:00298334afc671e6559345623ea7bc5d45a2d1e07ff4c29f106cea0d81a952fc
BTC 6M bf25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:585d6779b0a42a25983e03258adb65a5c5375424b24ab9fd68c1608cee51cd7f
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:f232d11a000ec748028e4a9cf14ef962b7c44aa3a6f5ccccf065c9f2ddb11673
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a2033242e6a27b77296f5ac6770a86ab712a5e853be0dfba12507f47bba99eb4
BTC 6M rr25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:f2d009844149437f0519aeb9806e35bd92a1d7bdddde4b7dcc2c844f844e0305
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:a7a3ed4904b5a077c13b11ee5366ba04575dd23712481849794a7249d1634006
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ab10f570f439bdb2876e9414ba1937dc475be461ca2d27ad6c75ea3862b6e123
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:7eaefbd1d752b1e5eb0a7193fc37505cc5b0d7b5da2ed0e771ce2567c7d770be
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:9364d471c845e6466962b6db5ba5b4d92cd5ed9af6178d8d222153667a867986
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1f2526d1b8aa501706e36202e9df9ff6054ffa0ef8dbcf110b63245af8b2e8fb
BTC 9M bf25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:b5af6766c644e2c6c0cb890fe8c70607b68d3cfc15b1d7ff9515537e6177ad6a
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:b082ff0cf459c83a84f79724615ca1f271809fed212a8cfb4deaa8c0d13f273e
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8ed609682ed57eddf7079e29a6e60f9e9fdbf3a2b837400823a84d29afa734e2
BTC 9M rr25move30d18 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-17 → 2026-10-17
2026-09-17T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:956a3136ae2b11091091f594c0f54ddea80104ca60b4f832755761b61f1630d0
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory36 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:e5433317d8d45555505a455c9916c0bc07489b1d8c1bfe57e0769a189d161fab
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory46 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-17
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:88fc54b81c7c3f85e8a2f5c0b6b223a218c2b690800915591aed94a8d6039736
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

01 · Week in review

Macro · Crypto · Options

The week in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

These dated entries organise news across the calendar week. Related daily report links do not identify the stored reports reused in the weekly analysis; those inputs are listed separately.

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

No selected news for the session

Related daily report

No news item was selected for this report date. No additional qualifying evidence was identified for that session.

No linked source retained for this diary entry.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

No qualifying crypto event was retained for this report window.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

42.56 vol points

Measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

41.70 vol points

Measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:29:58 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-0.86 vol points

As of 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +5.28 volatility points, to 36.64%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC to 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 36.64%, 4.72 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.92%; 24-hour realised volatility was 29.13% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.15%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +3.98 volatility points to 37.52% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.37% (+0.68 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.80 volatility points to -3.94 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.25 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +5.28 volatility points at 1W, to 36.64%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.46% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.02% over seven days.

Weekly universe roll: added 13NOV26, 25OCT26, 26OCT26, 27OCT26, 28OCT26; removed 18OCT26, 19OCT26, 20OCT26, 21OCT26, 23OCT26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +5.28 vol pts
02

Largest eligible smile rotation

27NOV26, -4.15 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1M, -2.16 vol pts
04

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, +0.5466 param
05

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, +0.22 vol pts
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

27NOV26, -0.1758 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W36.6431.36+5.28 vol pts+16.84%
2W38.7233.49+5.23 vol pts+15.62%
1M37.1935.76+1.43 vol pts+4.00%
3M37.7936.67+1.12 vol pts+3.05%
6M38.3737.69+0.68 vol pts+1.80%
9M38.9638.22+0.74 vol pts+1.94%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 10-23 to 10-24

1W, +4.50 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 10-23 to 10-24

2W, +2.30 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 10-21 to 10-22

2W, +2.09 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 10-21 to 10-22

1W, +2.07 vol pts
05

ATM IV · 10-19 to 10-20

1W, -1.75 vol pts
06

RR25 · 10-23 to 10-24

1M, -1.74 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W30.78%36.64%5.86 vol pts2.65 vol pts0.50 vol pts
2W34.33%38.72%4.39 vol pts2.56 vol pts0.42 vol pts
1M35.21%37.19%1.98 vol pts2.05 vol pts0.45 vol pts
3M36.53%37.79%1.26 vol pts1.19 vol pts0.18 vol pts
6M37.60%38.37%0.77 vol pts0.68 vol pts0.28 vol pts
9M38.19%38.96%0.77 vol pts0.56 vol pts0.26 vol pts
1Y38.63%39.26%0.63 vol pts0.76 vol pts0.31 vol pts

Daily report trail

The stored reports behind the weekly path.

8 stored daily report inputs; 8 separate surface observations. Calendar news-diary entries do not establish which daily reports were reused.

Daily reports qualify by their snapshot time inside the comparison window. A report published earlier on the first date can fall outside that window.

DateStored daily report inputLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
Bitcoin options: 1W skew moves further toward puts1W: +2.56 vol pts to 31.36%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin options: 1W ATM implied volatility rises 3.17 points1W: +3.17 vol pts to 34.53%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options: 1W butterfly falls 0.38 volatility points1W: -1.86 vol pts to 32.67%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility fall 0.88 points to 31.79%1W: -0.88 vol pts to 31.79%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options accompany a 2.52% 24-hour spot-index gain2W: +0.69 vol pts to 35.75%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility rise 1.44 points to 37.19%2W: +1.44 vol pts to 37.19%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options show higher 2W RR25 skew1W: -1.87 vol pts to 31.03%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 5.61 volatility points1W: +5.61 vol pts to 36.64%No sufficiently relevant context identified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.80 volatility points to -3.94 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 1M. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W-3.60-4.46+0.86 vol pts
2W-4.87-4.20-0.67 vol pts
1M-5.28-3.12-2.16 vol pts
3M-3.52-2.28-1.24 vol pts
6M-2.41-1.62-0.79 vol pts
9M-1.90-1.41-0.49 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.25 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1M.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W2.002.000.00 vol pts
2W2.232.04+0.19 vol pts
1M2.362.14+0.22 vol pts
3M2.362.22+0.14 vol pts
6M2.312.22+0.09 vol pts
9M2.162.25-0.09 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
30OCT265.6 days79,623.61-1782.25 USD35.29%+2.54 vol pts+1.40 vol pts-0.10 vol pts
6NOV2612.6 days79,689.24-1814.70 USD39.03%+3.63 vol pts-0.77 vol pts-0.01 vol pts
27NOV2633.6 days79,908.79-1843.40 USD37.05%+1.11 vol pts-2.66 vol pts+0.30 vol pts
25DEC2661.6 days80,268.87-1808.07 USD37.51%+1.49 vol pts-1.63 vol pts+0.07 vol pts
26MAR27152.6 days81,336.6-1804.41 USD38.03%+0.53 vol pts-1.12 vol pts+0.20 vol pts
25JUN27243.6 days82,452.86-1787.15 USD38.82%+0.75 vol pts-0.41 vol pts-0.09 vol pts
24SEP27334.6 days83,586.89-1763.63 USD39.18%+0.63 vol pts-0.68 vol pts-0.08 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

30OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26parallel shift higher · rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:29:58 UTC; observed receipt 24 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 24 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON
RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Lead signal · 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W ATM IV 36.64% · Δ +5.28 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 86.1% by absolute move · full history (n=36); 7-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-17; rolling periods overlap

Original report summary

BTC 1W ATM IV is 36.64 percent, compared with 31.36 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-17 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
30OCT26-0.00160-0.00730+0.00070-0.02290+0.03140rotation towards calls, wing steepening
6NOV26+0.00960-0.01930+0.22390+0.14900-0.00450parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts, wing steepening
27NOV26+0.05160-0.04550+0.54660+0.44380-0.17580rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25DEC26+0.02410-0.02810+0.22300+0.23690-0.04050rotation towards puts
26MAR27+0.01340-0.01910+0.15970+0.20890-0.03370rotation towards puts
25JUN27-0.03010+0.01060-0.02510-0.03080+0.08150parallel shift higher
24SEP27-0.03950+0.01080-0.02510-0.01200+0.10280parallel shift higher

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC31.92%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
8 stored daily report inputs, dated 17 October 2026, 18 October 2026, 19 October 2026, 20 October 2026, 21 October 2026, 22 October 2026, 23 October 2026, 24 October 2026. Surface observations and calendar news-diary entries are separate.
Original stored input methodology

The weekly edition reuses 8 stored daily reports from 2026-10-17 through 2026-10-24; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail. Daily report trail coverage is complete. Published historical inputs are SHA-256 verified and pinned with their manifest; offline replay reuses those exact bytes. Daily surface observations are separate from stored daily reports.

Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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