Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options show higher 2w RR25 skew

Name: BTC options surface changes for 2026-10-23
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

BTC spot rose 0.17%; 2W ATM IV fell 1.26 volatility points; Wing premium was unchanged.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 23 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 23 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Generated timestamp: 2026-10-23T17:06:52+00:00

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-23 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-22 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-23 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

BTCSpot-index 24h +0.17%1W ATM IV 31.03%1W RR25 -1.95 vol pts1W BF25 +1.81 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -0.54 vol pts

Notable move: BTC 2W RR25 Δ +1.70 vol pts → -1.88 vol pts · percentile rank 93.6% by absolute move · 1-day moves · full history (n=47).

Bitcoin options show higher 2w RR25 skew. RR25 term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. RR25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 22 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 23 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-22: “Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility rise 1.44 points to 37.19%”

Previous publication cutoff 22 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 22 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 ba355196dc8bb2f80fd3c3541c4236e7c0df8c6bda261777ed1f79f3d0bf551a

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-22 daily edition.

BTC 2W ATM IV: prior change +1.44 → current change -1.26 volatility points; direction reversed.
BTC spot-index return: prior change -3.79 → current change +0.17 percent; direction reversed.
BTC 2W RR25: prior change +0.05 → current change +1.70 volatility points; same direction.
BTC 2W BF25: prior change -0.09 → current change 0.00 volatility points; one or both windows unchanged.

BTC 2W ATM IV ≥ 37.19 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 23 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 35.93 percent).
BTC 2W ATM IV ≤ 35.75 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 23 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 35.93 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: BTC 2W RR25 ≥ -1.88 volatility points at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level -1.88; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 2W RR25 ≤ -3.58 volatility points at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level -1.88; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 70c1503870e06b7b22f3d4717e573a4d89adfec268cbd5319ed87dbe0fca9858

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-22/ba355196dc8bb2f80fd3c3541c4236e7c0df8c6bda261777ed1f79f3d0bf551a.json · SHA-256 ba355196dc8bb2f80fd3c3541c4236e7c0df8c6bda261777ed1f79f3d0bf551a

Consumed endpoint proof: 95b56b3a33f712f211be6e6ca4d037c7259aeb04024d54d6d760636613612c49

BTC:rr25:2W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].rr25.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].rr25.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].rr25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00.
BTC:rr25:2W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].rr25.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].rr25.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].rr25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00.

Chart notes

Chart reading: BTC +1.70 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: Positive RR25 places call-wing IV above put-wing IV; negative RR25 places put-wing IV above call-wing IV.
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (BTC); RR25 moved toward calls (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC); 1W IV was below 7D RV (BTC).

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Friday 23 October

Bitcoin options show higher 2W RR25 skew

The 2W RR25 skew change for BTC was +1.70 volatility points over the stored comparison. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin holds above […] as oil prices hit six-month high”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Live updates: Bitcoin holds above […] as oil prices hit six-month high”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Live updates: Bitcoin holds above $81,000 as oil prices hit six-month highCoinDesk · 11:13 UTC

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

40.43 vol points

Measurement 23 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

39.19 vol points

Measurement 23 Oct 2026, 16:29:56 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 64s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-1.24 vol points

As of 23 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -1.87 volatility points, to 31.03%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.03%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 31.57%; 24-hour realised volatility was 32.80% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.50%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.24 volatility points to 34.18% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.95% (-0.02 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.92 volatility points to -2.14 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 2.02 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.87 volatility points at 1W, to 31.03%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.17% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.03% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 27OCT26; removed 23OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

6NOV26, +3.81 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -1.87 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, +1.70 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI rho move

13NOV26, -0.2389 param

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

27NOV26, +0.1613 param

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

3M, -0.10 vol pts

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	31.03	32.90	-1.87 vol pts	-5.68%
2W	35.93	37.19	-1.26 vol pts	-3.39%
1M	35.57	36.15	-0.58 vol pts	-1.60%
3M	37.04	37.15	-0.11 vol pts	-0.30%
6M	37.95	37.97	-0.02 vol pts	-0.05%
9M	38.54	38.62	-0.08 vol pts	-0.21%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.92 volatility points to -2.14 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-1.95	-2.54	+0.59 vol pts
2W	-1.88	-3.58	+1.70 vol pts
1M	-2.67	-4.10	+1.43 vol pts
3M	-2.39	-2.99	+0.60 vol pts
6M	-1.79	-2.09	+0.30 vol pts
9M	-1.45	-1.64	+0.19 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 3M.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.04 volatility points to 2.02 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	1.81	1.76	+0.05 vol pts
2W	1.90	1.90	0.00 vol pts
1M	1.99	2.06	-0.07 vol pts
3M	2.17	2.27	-0.10 vol pts
6M	2.23	2.31	-0.08 vol pts
9M	2.21	2.28	-0.07 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

24OCT26, -17.45 vol pts

1.6d

ATM IV change

25OCT26, -6.80 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
24OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	81,548.07	+40.75 USD	25.22%	-6.58 vol pts	-1.18 vol pts	-0.46 vol pts
25OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	81,572.78	+54.78 USD	20.18%	-6.80 vol pts	+0.11 vol pts	+0.03 vol pts
26OCT26	2.6 days	81,590.82	+69.61 USD	22.12%	-4.31 vol pts	+0.31 vol pts	-0.11 vol pts
30OCT26	6.6 days	81,656.65	+72.67 USD	30.44%	-2.99 vol pts	+0.56 vol pts	+0.02 vol pts
6NOV26	13.6 days	81,731.66	+88.57 USD	35.96%	-1.42 vol pts	+1.79 vol pts	-0.01 vol pts
13NOV26	20.6 days	81,812.91	+83.88 USD	35.59%	-1.10 vol pts	+1.44 vol pts	+0.12 vol pts
27NOV26	34.6 days	81,965.35	+74.72 USD	35.56%	-0.37 vol pts	+1.45 vol pts	-0.15 vol pts
25DEC26	62.6 days	82,327.15	+84.65 USD	36.36%	-0.29 vol pts	+0.90 vol pts	-0.10 vol pts
26MAR27	153.6 days	83,400.23	+93.93 USD	37.64%	+0.01 vol pts	+0.28 vol pts	-0.08 vol pts
25JUN27	244.6 days	84,540.43	+98.23 USD	38.37%	-0.10 vol pts	+0.29 vol pts	-0.05 vol pts
24SEP27	335.6 days	85,679.2	+134.58 USD	38.82%	-0.06 vol pts	+0.01 vol pts	-0.07 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

24OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

25OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

26OCT26wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

6NOV26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

13NOV26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

27NOV26rotation towards calls

25DEC26rotation towards calls

26MAR27limited movement

25JUN27parallel shift lower

24SEP27parallel shift lower

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

24OCT26

25OCT26

26OCT26

30OCT26

6NOV26

13NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 1.9 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.61.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 36.38%, against VIX at 19.03: a 17.35-point spread and 1.91× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 27.70%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 9.98%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 20.3% of 261 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.611 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.393 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 18.86, 19.03 and 20.12.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 22 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 23 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 23 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 23 Oct 2026, 16:29:56 UTC; observed receipt 23 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 23 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 23 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 64s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-23 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-22 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-23 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference: 0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 23 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 2W RR25 -1.88 vol pts · Δ +1.70 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 93.6% by absolute move · full history (n=47); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-22

Original report summary

BTC 2W RR25 skew is -1.88 percent, compared with -3.58 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.03% · Δ -1.87 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -1.95 vol pts · Δ +0.59 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.03% / 7D RV 31.57% · spread -0.54 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 31.03% · Δ -1.87 vol ptspercentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -1.95 vol pts · Δ +0.59 vol ptspercentile rank 38.3% by absolute move · full history (n=47); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-22

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.81 vol pts · Δ +0.05 vol ptspercentile rank 16.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 31.03% / 7D RV 31.57% · spread -0.54 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 60.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 38.3% by absolute move · full history (n=47); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-22

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 16.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 70c1503870e06b7b22f3d4717e573a4d89adfec268cbd5319ed87dbe0fca9858.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c653de530be013b792730dd1d6bb304a173b4db607331b3c8cd85026757de33b`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9c5330830e763fe479847e83e9175c4bc27f31edf825d1018c2d1eca6a663ae4`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3cbc969b6a5c1fef53131931cb6bd62ed539b39a928f4c016aa106856dcb3021`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5b804b16529112df24402170d3c128a5e192d9ab4c7bb7eaca003e29244623a2`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b48091a191495a77c71a630724a373679d537861237a95f2ff18a4b5aeb5c891`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:412c915b7a0da32169dc2276c5b8fedd944ea66412f6cf49917e737648c3c752`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:42009096e98f675d3294630a5c0184fae79ea4dc27f103230c95b3d5225159d1`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7ef11698995d35e257484ba6f848ac1b0ef15b089150c8eadc4e772b99b92d13`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0237fdf3806053d3f336f7f2eae75d82b178a45151dc54627820f48d998ce0ea`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cb443a966820b1161de7690bf42f5759609eed4fa33e22754313cdbff4e51a1b`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:aa2ba096ab4e6f6e0da311101d5723b2406d4ea526d4195c9e12c7648b222e49`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1812923ecbea8033d489ab2b96440de745ccd0a15b5008015114ed30e133b38c`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:621e0c345e4ceb6d2ccf9199d00389d4b5422343c484e0f3d031a7bb2501f7a1`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:91584963fdd4b474d1246dfc9d77441efb2fedbd6aa6a9a3699ae4fd25917e81`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:dc7e8c8afa38480b3e8377c63f3547da9c0b04b6be47d1506c6c416192a45c41`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a870c247b7bf2a872ac94119813ec530067ed0615f90219dff6c6b87af5a40da`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:498898d1f28028e957997331311f6cabdc0333e6ca63a6040905b824ab7eb5c9`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:74b3b98693a41591fdad20ffb3ffed0bb74a9744d2651b427e2e544fa8edb8b5`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:deb73e2ca941f743060974e8bf985282ed15b2ca5776e02a417af8307661b561`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:906ce3176c958b1010a1fe80bb727e240b239c04a9dcad791ad60ec6052f6be6`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:604eb5d03f905f5dfce570b39fcbb3420ddd31faf939a818ae1ff02d7f500418`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4ae8abd53a0402086c26dca4c1c6343efd079082b41b6b3a975785fc7f899ca4`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4522ea8dbb7cc927d94451384b344be5d04d8ed04ef3ac56d6d1c394633d6ce2`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:66c035ab2bf077b8fa42b7606d923fb73e6a7be38b28b7908342bf1a2b79deed`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:93c663dde3684db8ede4948e7bf5cf03c078d5e7c3af8057c2f7244fc5a84061`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f869794fcb35e789dcb014db9ec6c27ce16556255e21778b8c7bd42c6b012f42`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:92cd2189d4d0faae9115c16a932b08168fc006c4ee45d0e8d3dbb59f0e2a4b70`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7f1d381336283991b5d5d5fc417b49aee3bd0de42ab6cbd2f6e55ca1b50c362b`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1dc6e066590e930d9246c0160a30f5bf9dde591fbd9069611734ea7bf2436d4a`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a75f73a3f306079ce46919289f39c6dc963c5f7cddb36c3be9607ee5ca0b3c8a`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:467ab8b5dc8a5e6cdd473b1bb8a14ef0442e3f3c237f93a49a93a34903848861`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a35a3c3b710cbc3422e8a07d25221e1876a292508ed0c93c47a14ed37b2d5ace`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:54284e0a52d866d7a87aca8a0592e04b8c09e49d52bc658e70fed804bb8543ca`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7b6fa7964b7581beda0d2ecb02e0b0c08f0dd917553fcbb9d8fbb99ce5a40760`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bb237c53ef5ad71e18ae32c5966ddad408782f3a443d02ddcd95004e8d2cac13`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:162f4a842f5b4fb618129d61da3c591d2a1716d169f2888f624805def9798a5d`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:df3ecde9f5f1cca2e52683af609de73034975e0ad14fe395541f3955811a9be8`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:32e6ff950cf85414876540a6aab6ceb83ffc9838fbc52927b93668bf8f1dc881`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5c41757748a4e8e665b3a175ae7b7d651146f7c305d4952c4f9cc61431082913`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c2e05bcd323762b701c304e879c1ddd33d5a56685ce6bcb35d7e32c2e6ce8492`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f5cb462dd71df6288fb0f34d9e530c6c7c1ecab4341fd107c7bd0532bef264a9`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c43dfd5ce8b768ba71a1bae61ce7bcc28953c0a5e3c021f6696c73cf72d4358f`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:721b7a7cb8a26b5d39f99d6a63738f31034c0941e59555529f0a34e680cec45c`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:322133f9662d1d4a538e880bef14b94cd10f41ca5eb54b892876d6d01b5c40c3`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:02abdde560ea37ea7de666310b2d2bf8ac3cd6740fd8774c63d710e5f62599d2`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:16016a4cd1ce73239b38a2ccc9c4fd1a70580d7f88e981e356204ab9ecd35085`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a1804dff159fbc68b57a9a697ae13bd833a78e9287e3bfb373d3e1ba6650c1ad`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ec7cf08c7a00dceaf49c504710845e891920af9e51539e469d948d2f1ea9d73d`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a4bde6aaf7a2a521402ec9629d9c558c2c8ae0ad067e769a43081bfe63f43779`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f8545974256f7afe74724e70ea2a566814f0325954e3a0ef8025f7f903c88f92`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b9d92e9536d7a42d80747e209bea9e6220255d07a54f29a2fab8d05c45d86ee6`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-22 → 2026-10-22 2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1a021cf36694d094f355aed804c27de5532d412a650d09009f779e477c6be65f`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	47 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3e29ba306df0cd66d8024f90619883ebf5cfa768be962112844d5ea00dd31264`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-22 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b7613b45634171e902da91ce93be61af299502f9cb09f2ac954685ad065e2394`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 13NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 27NOV26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
24OCT26	+0.03100	-0.04670	-0.16390	-0.01820	-0.20460	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25OCT26	+0.02930	-0.02820	-0.01330	+0.02450	-0.23000	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
26OCT26	+0.02040	-0.02270	-0.01750	+0.00680	-0.13580	wing steepening
30OCT26	+0.01840	-0.01200	-0.00140	-0.01830	-0.10990	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
6NOV26	-0.02310	+0.02160	-0.09270	-0.09770	+0.05270	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
13NOV26	+0.02570	-0.00750	-0.23890	-0.22420	-0.10850	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
27NOV26	-0.04680	+0.02110	-0.18840	-0.16940	+0.16130	rotation towards calls
25DEC26	-0.02310	+0.00980	-0.02640	-0.05690	+0.06230	rotation towards calls
26MAR27	-0.01320	+0.00260	0.00000	-0.02010	+0.03930	limited movement
25JUN27	-0.02800	+0.02180	-0.03640	-0.07670	+0.03650	parallel shift lower
24SEP27	-0.01000	+0.02230	-0.10220	-0.14440	-0.00190	parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma24OCT26, 0.000461 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay24OCT26, -267.332842 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.00188 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 322.148564 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.287501 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	31.57%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 23 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 23 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 22 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

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Previous publication · research context

Prior watch: measured outcome

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market event

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 3M.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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