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Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV

BTC spot fell 2.46%; Skew moved toward puts (-1.65 vol points); Wing premium increased (+0.19 vol points).

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Generated timestamp:

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-23 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

  • BTCSpot-index 24h -2.46%1W ATM IV 36.64%1W RR25 -3.60 vol pts1W BF25 +2.00 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +4.72 vol pts

Notable move: BTC 1W ATM IV Δ +5.61 vol pts → 36.64% · percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=25).

1W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

1W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. BTC: Current 36.64, Previous 31.03.CurrentPreviousBTC36.6431.030.0019.7939.57

Current: 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 23 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Bitcoin options show higher 1w ATM IV. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W36.6431.03
2W38.7235.93
1M37.1935.57
3M37.7937.04
6M38.3737.95
9M38.9638.54
1YUnavailableUnavailable

The 1W ATM IV change for BTC was +5.61 volatility points over the stored comparison. No news item was selected for this report date.

Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 23 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-23: “Bitcoin options show higher 2w RR25 skew”

Previous publication cutoff 23 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 23 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 70c1503870e06b7b22f3d4717e573a4d89adfec268cbd5319ed87dbe0fca9858

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-23 daily edition.

  • BTC 1W ATM IV: prior change -1.87 → current change +5.61 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC spot-index return: prior change +0.17 → current change -2.46 percent; direction reversed.
  • BTC 1W RR25: prior change +0.59 → current change -1.65 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 1W BF25: prior change +0.05 → current change +0.19 volatility points; same direction.
  • BTC 2W RR25 ≥ -1.88 volatility points (hold the observed endpoint) at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed -4.87 volatility points).
  • BTC 2W RR25 ≤ -3.58 volatility points (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC: met (observed -4.87 volatility points).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 36.64 percent at . Current level 36.64; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 31.03 percent at . Current level 36.64; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 802b9df6852ac1e36fcb280d45a42d01777fe2ca2e20406c5e18ab9334bdb246

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-23/70c1503870e06b7b22f3d4717e573a4d89adfec268cbd5319ed87dbe0fca9858.json · SHA-256 70c1503870e06b7b22f3d4717e573a4d89adfec268cbd5319ed87dbe0fca9858

Consumed endpoint proof: a40c912def219773b0af2175648cded395474c1fadaa5914866221cbf97ce0c3

  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-25T16:31:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-25T16:31:00+00:00.
Chart notes

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

42.56 vol points

Measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

41.70 vol points

Measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:29:58 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-0.86 vol points

As of 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +5.61 volatility points, to 36.64%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

23 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC to 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

No catalyst assigned.

No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 36.64%, 4.72 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.92%; 24-hour realised volatility was 29.13% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.15%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +3.34 volatility points to 37.52% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.37% (+0.42 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.80 volatility points to -3.94 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.23 volatility points to 2.25 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +5.61 volatility points at 1W, to 36.64%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.46% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.02% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 28OCT26; removed 24OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

27OCT26, -7.86 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +5.61 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, -2.99 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, +0.37 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, +0.2630 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

27NOV26, -0.2630 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W36.6431.03+5.61 vol pts+18.08%
2W38.7235.93+2.79 vol pts+7.77%
1M37.1935.57+1.62 vol pts+4.55%
3M37.7937.04+0.75 vol pts+2.02%
6M38.3737.95+0.42 vol pts+1.11%
9M38.9638.54+0.42 vol pts+1.09%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.80 volatility points to -3.94 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-5.7 vol pts-4.6 vol pts-3.4 vol pts-2.2 vol pts-1.0 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-3.60-1.95-1.65 vol pts
2W-4.87-1.88-2.99 vol pts
1M-5.28-2.67-2.61 vol pts
3M-3.52-2.39-1.13 vol pts
6M-2.41-1.79-0.62 vol pts
9M-1.90-1.45-0.45 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

BF25 increased, averaging +0.23 volatility points to 2.25 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

1.6 vol pts1.8 vol pts2.1 vol pts2.3 vol pts2.6 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W2.001.81+0.19 vol pts
2W2.231.90+0.33 vol pts
1M2.361.99+0.37 vol pts
3M2.362.17+0.19 vol pts
6M2.312.23+0.08 vol pts
9M2.162.21-0.05 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

1.6d

ATM IV change

26OCT26, +12.03 vol pts
0.6d

ATM IV change

25OCT26, +11.49 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

30.1%32.5%35.0%37.5%39.9%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
25OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days79,540.75-2032.03 USD31.67%+11.49 vol pts-1.32 vol pts-0.10 vol pts
26OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days79,561.8-2029.02 USD34.15%+12.03 vol pts-1.52 vol pts+0.12 vol pts
27OCT262.6 days79,577.42-2025.31 USD34.48%+10.09 vol pts-1.87 vol pts-0.03 vol pts
30OCT265.6 days79,623.61-2033.04 USD35.29%+4.85 vol pts-0.91 vol pts+0.05 vol pts
6NOV2612.6 days79,689.24-2042.42 USD39.03%+3.07 vol pts-2.97 vol pts+0.33 vol pts
13NOV2619.6 days79,766.33-2046.58 USD37.86%+2.27 vol pts-2.67 vol pts+0.35 vol pts
27NOV2633.6 days79,908.79-2056.56 USD37.05%+1.49 vol pts-2.57 vol pts+0.37 vol pts
25DEC2661.6 days80,268.87-2058.28 USD37.51%+1.15 vol pts-1.60 vol pts+0.22 vol pts
26MAR27152.6 days81,336.6-2063.63 USD38.03%+0.39 vol pts-0.74 vol pts+0.14 vol pts
25JUN27243.6 days82,452.86-2087.57 USD38.82%+0.45 vol pts-0.47 vol pts-0.03 vol pts
24SEP27334.6 days83,586.89-2092.31 USD39.18%+0.36 vol pts-0.40 vol pts-0.10 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

25OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26OCT26rotation towards puts · wing flattening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27OCT26rotation towards puts · wing flattening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing flattening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
13NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 1.8 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.63.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.67%, against VIX at 19.45: a 16.22-point spread and 1.83× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 27.49%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 9.92%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 19.8% of 262 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.627 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.388 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 18.70, 19.45 and 20.48.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 23 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 24 Oct 2026, 16:29:58 UTC; observed receipt 24 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 24 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 62s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON
RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-23 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-24 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W ATM IV 36.64% · Δ +5.61 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-23

Original report summary

BTC 1W ATM IV is 36.64 percent, compared with 31.03 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 36.64% · Δ +5.61 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.60 vol pts · Δ -1.65 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 36.64% / 7D RV 31.92% · spread +4.72 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 36.64% · Δ +5.61 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-23

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -3.60 vol pts · Δ -1.65 vol ptspercentile rank 88.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-23

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 2.00 vol pts · Δ +0.19 vol ptspercentile rank 60.4% by absolute move · full history (n=48); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-23

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 36.64% / 7D RV 31.92% · spread +4.72 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-23

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 88.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=25); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-23 to 2026-10-23

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 60.4% by absolute move · full history (n=48); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-23

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 802b9df6852ac1e36fcb280d45a42d01777fe2ca2e20406c5e18ab9334bdb246.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b2468a45862b9bb45879c89922d152f75035ac84d45193722516c39a9bb1c222
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0841da7f905109814f7409d4e8b56aa77fe4a55bbcfcc9ce38d26ec71ae435cc
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d6f4ceba7656c5bda1e1fe34765406618351b8ed9277aa382643c96c430e5820
BTC 1W bf25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f85d87ca86b5d0080636263bd44d2f7b81ab52345fc25c95e7532dee5c90677c
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c1a11e4afc50d957111880b00926bc5a437b186d11af904d1c748b40e084fcee
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8c7869183368fc1780dfed9e2cab772ceeea1d005e0dc74758619bf8a4a9415b
BTC 1W rr25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:64ad820909fd943de89d92d11cd58b0b5d59894d348fd2b45426b7a199c3d468
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7c471891dea6158aefa0c83e519012d3b43ad191e1f8ae5ce4f03d010e41da42
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fe98c1d8509f5bec361c176f0a5cce9577353badec5f4248cc79d20f5eac45a0
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ed907b40191a4f68d553aa84960f27b37f7f8d377873fd7fe9a054d7c3529ad0
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4b6285fb9349106bd28c0d2c84310479e715cdc516ca3675ec0d911f33ca124e
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5a6127876576913a5449c01fccde58b154a3945fb37fbf7537b2805aaab5af44
BTC 2W bf25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3ab5cbf454f26b83678e6a06b235adf7ebf9d33fe18bb1db89ec81fb4bd72fd2
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5c0afe0726838021c9e8aa7d3bbc646d3f0d4542edd2856e0bac88d6b3ae0c45
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cb5e966c3f8631edada806d91970524358d001ae28bcab46894ae95dfad5ad1b
BTC 2W rr25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bc3232c07f5b135f428f7a389d0fc5550400795ced8f670dab508afd6060a302
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8708e23a9e1799e6b609459c38e3c36c5d28eda647ac19736bc6940a62f66424
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:647c0698c4ca3b1f97c240aab7e3e3a931b2f92330c8a43d154dc68662056195
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:612eda02db63fc3f7c2798ac051914344a4bed39b50618f5309dfcea75dfb075
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:58e30385237767498de8f39664e1c92a16c0277e95cba1d1b0a0aaf7fd3c8613
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:9257d671ce97e40a5410a8abb9796e5f77d5a8fa75903f87be062a6c6f5241a0
BTC 1M bf25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d5ddafbda2a5ed5313eddc2ae86efc49e87879f5dcb62162a1491897447bc321
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4476fd11e8d569d8e6424a3404c72c2929e8184c8ba9248783f00c0840dec503
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:66dadc442face012d7752a186792128ae33a68b29842bf879fb4a08cfbff9825
BTC 1M rr25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:aa0330f4134e8f5512fd91e93b08757a4505fcafe8fd05aaee7177f8d7e2f3a8
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:095791e9708e087ea7659140a7c34e5491460f51eee82daafb3574b852dc6a86
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:88b5ddb6e7ae3bb53e334db99a5311ea7c473f8cd969b53fd8a1ab54aa5abffc
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:092d3e0c133f19a948b337bc815f60ad869235f9dab6f4d66f2ca737c3c263e8
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:59fca86400fefb6b1a751beef70c3b15a59e6941b586366d48f6c33a11e9195c
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f06708919f2f9827fe249bafbcc016d31ea6407926c08c547b29c1da48925ca8
BTC 3M bf25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:9b28e754b6a691ce5c85dacca68bf141a6dc3e9ef421a3525ec527334847410a
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b1d646a23a7b7bc4fc57a1208ed82e8c6fb59e2134a50025d4fdfb4ad53d1d25
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f085c190f66ab5f365440a054c3adca9ec6d7e43c99df452ee899b3bd0f90953
BTC 3M rr25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:63d402fa004997f8247628602909b63ed0a031a0f0686d73d88c3c451def51d6
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:20a33860dc7dd702582d0ded3c7ba8d15e42d0157b9d4f09d31424dc5e17694c
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2e07d13c7cdccb441e231dbc2c064533498582cc707771468f6f534b7577ebfc
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:247afa47bd107bfb9e4062aa24d49f1eca4a6820c06c542b42ff5a38fa781362
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e3a68b2afb467647955d877a84ca5b7966699e816b5609fae3aa26d71971d776
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:50970b1dc04baadb772f9619edd94a3857a41fb87cfaecab12864499001f342c
BTC 6M bf25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:00b1724b1a59cef250146fd9d87d33a4f0c46e736e689ac1bda6d6c337c69246
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5673c4ce9cb02f8b2882e6845c9606bb9b81e3d2fab7ab36665b3482c14b1908
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e6280f21b29e775f9b4ff781457f08ca226db357c7b7cc8c752f9c807b86d446
BTC 6M rr25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:519ed1a9e0dbe3488673ff93f8d4e84a3da4adbb5165fffeda99f63c5cf5c093
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f549160b9b40b05389a191afb2b4f6c959cac3913ba8e00629991182aa85261
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ecc4177cc551193d2a07b048bbcf957c47019c69c6fff459982e793e7f1ee725
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7c6b4db27aa7b3d3e1e605e25279fff88151fd629d55be1f8236ff7623ef92f0
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:566395ec91ff2f329d61dbe05fc8dd24834d341549de72f2175e7cc9b8f55375
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:226ffa9637d046f1f9865e91ae3697f34f4b09f220538340ec7ab9a52cf163e5
BTC 9M bf25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:35f5bd0c51f059a89e7814447af97612b490dbf344e978bb8ab8cee4a8679aa9
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:66d0fd29cc0c5755ff2ee47f87b55922fcafd230c6f39bfb48fe8e04fa74bd8a
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:404da049a617d9badf38f47ecdc6ca205fc52839af11d4ce068359a06c8e8343
BTC 9M rr25move30d25 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-23 → 2026-10-23
2026-09-23T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:192fe64553a007dff47978288c4a4ddc9697e5877343f91e5139726e0c5ba366
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory48 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:38f8511cb7d05961edf8def79a7b39d6768c911022821aa5e5933e9b6f713630
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory52 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-23
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:97bc48ed2fe162c4ec3e2166a192fe682289d606e2d2def0e3a251e6163daffc
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 27NOV26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
25OCT26-0.01250+0.00050-0.05110-0.04750+0.18190rotation towards puts, wing steepening
26OCT26-0.02380+0.01610-0.07500-0.06290+0.21140rotation towards puts, wing flattening
27OCT26-0.01920+0.00740-0.03070-0.02290+0.17560rotation towards puts, wing flattening
30OCT26-0.02230+0.01290-0.05590-0.01340+0.13190rotation towards puts, wing flattening
6NOV26+0.02490-0.01590+0.15620+0.14560-0.09330rotation towards puts
13NOV26+0.02610-0.00900+0.25680+0.21730-0.12210rotation towards puts
27NOV26+0.06890-0.02630+0.26300+0.21550-0.26300rotation towards puts
25DEC26+0.05960-0.02960+0.13970+0.17910-0.15990rotation towards puts
26MAR27+0.04980-0.03310+0.11650+0.17050-0.10060rotation towards puts
25JUN27+0.02380-0.03560+0.09220+0.14510+0.00810parallel shift higher
24SEP27-0.00040-0.03820+0.14980+0.21830+0.08370parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma25OCT26, 0.000377 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay25OCT26, -327.437004 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001877 delta / vol pt
Highest Vega24SEP27, 313.7283 USD / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.281741 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC31.92%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 24 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
24 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot
23 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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