Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility rise 1.44 points to 37.19%

BTC spot fell 3.79%; Skew moved toward calls (+0.05 vol points); Wing premium decreased (-0.09 vol points).

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 22 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Generated timestamp:

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-22 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-21 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-22 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

  • BTCSpot-index 24h -3.79%1W ATM IV 32.90%1W RR25 -2.54 vol pts1W BF25 +1.76 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +1.52 vol pts

Lead move: BTC 2W ATM IV Δ +1.44 vol pts → 37.19% · percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=24).

2W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

2W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. BTC: Current 37.19, Previous 35.75.CurrentPreviousBTC37.1935.750.0020.0840.17

Current: 22 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility rise 1.44 points to 37.19%. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W32.9031.75
2W37.1935.75
1M36.1535.83
3M37.1536.87
6M37.9737.74
9M38.6238.43
1YUnavailableUnavailable
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 22 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-21: “Bitcoin options accompany a 2.52% 24-hour spot-index gain”

Previous publication cutoff 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 94d454c409a9e7d53e0f6f80139ad493a87c66d5f666f47db468e9e70ffd97cf

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-21 daily edition.

  • BTC 2W ATM IV: prior change +0.69 → current change +1.44 volatility points; same direction.
  • BTC spot-index return: prior change +2.52 → current change -3.79 percent; direction reversed.
  • BTC 2W RR25: prior change -0.72 → current change +0.05 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 2W BF25: prior change +0.24 → current change -0.09 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 31.75 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 22 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 32.90 percent).
  • BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 31.79 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 22 Oct, 16:31 UTC: met (observed 32.90 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 2W ATM IV ≥ 37.19 percent at . Current level 37.19; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 2W ATM IV ≤ 35.75 percent at . Current level 37.19; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 ba355196dc8bb2f80fd3c3541c4236e7c0df8c6bda261777ed1f79f3d0bf551a

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-21/94d454c409a9e7d53e0f6f80139ad493a87c66d5f666f47db468e9e70ffd97cf.json · SHA-256 94d454c409a9e7d53e0f6f80139ad493a87c66d5f666f47db468e9e70ffd97cf

Consumed endpoint proof: fb476657104eaba07d730d5dc9ded2ab24faca23f96dc41919b615813fb8d2a6

  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-23T16:31:00+00:00.
Chart notes

01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility rise 1.44 points to 37.19%

The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was +1.44 volatility points over the stored comparison. CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin ETFs attract […] billion in […] days but it may not be enough for a steep rally”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. Cointelegraph reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin circles […] ETF cost basis as Trump Iran comments send stocks lower”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

CoinDesk reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin ETFs attract […] billion in […] days but it may not be enough for a steep rally”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. Cointelegraph reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Bitcoin circles […] ETF cost basis as Trump Iran comments send stocks lower”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

40.70 vol points

Measurement 22 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

39.82 vol points

Measurement 22 Oct 2026, 16:29:57 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 63s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-0.88 vol points

As of 22 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at +1.44 volatility points, to 37.19%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC to 22 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 32.90%, 1.52 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.38%; 24-hour realised volatility was 33.37% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.66%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.97 volatility points to 35.41% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.97% (+0.23 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.22 volatility points to -3.06 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.01 volatility points to 2.06 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.44 volatility points at 2W, to 37.19%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -3.79% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -0.62% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 13NOV26, 26OCT26; removed 22OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

25OCT26, -5.68 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, +1.44 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1M, -0.57 vol pts
04

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, +0.1963 param
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

27NOV26, -0.1483 param
06

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

2W, -0.09 vol pts

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W32.9031.75+1.15 vol pts+3.62%
2W37.1935.75+1.44 vol pts+4.03%
1M36.1535.83+0.32 vol pts+0.89%
3M37.1536.87+0.28 vol pts+0.76%
6M37.9737.74+0.23 vol pts+0.61%
9M38.6238.43+0.19 vol pts+0.49%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1M.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.22 volatility points to -3.06 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-4.4 vol pts-3.6 vol pts-2.8 vol pts-2.0 vol pts-1.2 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-2.54-2.58+0.04 vol pts
2W-3.58-3.63+0.05 vol pts
1M-4.10-3.53-0.57 vol pts
3M-2.99-2.60-0.39 vol pts
6M-2.09-1.88-0.21 vol pts
9M-1.64-1.50-0.14 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.01 volatility points to 2.06 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

1.6 vol pts1.8 vol pts2.0 vol pts2.3 vol pts2.5 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W1.761.760.00 vol pts
2W1.901.99-0.09 vol pts
1M2.062.05+0.01 vol pts
3M2.272.24+0.03 vol pts
6M2.312.32-0.01 vol pts
9M2.282.32-0.04 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

1.6d

Smile rotation

24OCT26, -4.04 vol pts
0.6d

ATM IV change

23OCT26, +3.21 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

30.9%33.1%35.2%37.3%39.4%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
23OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days81,490.29-3147.68 USD30.46%+3.21 vol pts+0.02 vol pts-0.24 vol pts
24OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days81,507.32-3147.38 USD31.80%+1.61 vol pts-0.60 vol pts-0.16 vol pts
25OCT262.6 days81,518-3149.71 USD26.98%-0.17 vol pts-1.02 vol pts-0.26 vol pts
30OCT267.6 days81,583.98-3153.10 USD33.43%+0.81 vol pts+0.27 vol pts-0.01 vol pts
6NOV2614.6 days81,643.09-3182.62 USD37.38%+1.13 vol pts+0.13 vol pts-0.13 vol pts
27NOV2635.6 days81,890.63-3197.58 USD35.93%+0.18 vol pts-0.72 vol pts+0.12 vol pts
25DEC2663.6 days82,242.5-3201.25 USD36.65%+0.29 vol pts-0.53 vol pts+0.03 vol pts
26MAR27154.6 days83,306.3-3257.57 USD37.63%+0.25 vol pts-0.28 vol pts0.00 vol pts
25JUN27245.6 days84,442.2-3292.85 USD38.47%+0.18 vol pts-0.12 vol pts-0.02 vol pts
24SEP27336.6 days85,544.62-3337.35 USD38.88%+0.19 vol pts-0.20 vol pts-0.08 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26parallel shift higher · rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.1 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.57.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.28%, against VIX at 16.68: a 18.60-point spread and 2.12× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 22.83%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 8.94%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 10.0% of 260 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.571 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.357 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 15.49, 16.68 and 18.72.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 21 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 22 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 22 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 22 Oct 2026, 16:29:57 UTC; observed receipt 22 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 22 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 22 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 63s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON
RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-22 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-21 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-22 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 22 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 2W ATM IV 37.19% · Δ +1.44 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 66.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-21

Original report summary

BTC 2W ATM IV is 37.19 percent, compared with 35.75 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 32.90% · Δ +1.15 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -2.54 vol pts · Δ +0.04 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 32.90% / 7D RV 31.38% · spread +1.52 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 32.90% · Δ +1.15 vol ptspercentile rank 45.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-21

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -2.54 vol pts · Δ +0.04 vol ptspercentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=46); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-21

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.76 vol pts · Δ 0.00 vol ptspercentile rank 4.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-21

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 32.90% / 7D RV 31.38% · spread +1.52 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 45.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-21

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=46); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-21

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 4.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=24); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-21

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: ba355196dc8bb2f80fd3c3541c4236e7c0df8c6bda261777ed1f79f3d0bf551a.

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility rise 1.44 points to 37.19% Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dfc50ac4b7e5dc04bf563d041026e9d968977591db998a6e48566bd1e4745751
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:9c2e139397199cf486d7d61ee2e3e7d2341fc2af456fe1865f53c57f1d440c3f
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5c7b4e4369fc345d9c20861d0e12ff88a0e798d8c3126ebbaa761559d14c2c9f
BTC 1W bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fc0ab4c3d7b8f8cda158ca3eeaeb41f5a7f895e782a559dfc16091d11972710f
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:280580f0788cee03a83bc0f74ae4a900f9977f25f8782a896acd8244b07fffa8
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:38d77d26d3a7417116fb3142a21a3a63ceb40c57f4c147a7851b554dd21c6012
BTC 1W rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0c0001efb8bb0e24980cf50d5c95ac5cbc84accb482e9b61bdc210953535de74
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:013d3c326a0d1ef8eea6d368dfff35761c8318c9f6be2894a0dc4b8101c65c49
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:18efd7105562b3a31a72af004e526ce18057c8407e3e55a8efbad90abec2468d
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bd4b9cfeec192ddd9bb7f9c96ea97360785914886d4b06471758134322dfbbf2
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ddb29996120b0a28183d8c9182223769365e2a3af0100ddc9c04f2ae68f34194
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a4cad82aeff1fc14b399bd13be38212741cd0171cdf4bca9ecfdd2061fcb4f06
BTC 2W bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:81a49e10753176d5bafc847ee7ffa4ad62386ba0c8e973f34045ac9d14c733a1
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:30e5a1e703b3c8726593ad035cc60f45613232b8c88d032822c27cc69c184fa1
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:78696237793fc0eb31e2b6f46cf1f946443a06c6dd41c5b17a08421ffbc3126f
BTC 2W rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:80bc51377a3d253acd2b3943b64dcb1938d1fc6ff1a14ab5e69f2eba42094051
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0ff97953e31ebf92f5ff7e56a9941ac16dbb15f8e4bb714c41298be85403ef04
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:89958504c62d74fc6237b7983bb4fa53f7b02c831a5945a86355ca5101426aaa
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ebb690200215427fc54062615dd4eeff0f8993c5be2639582614ad2ae1526cdc
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:15a356eb79f30af43826aa55f8e21e290ad579c77b74cfcd392521c400030dd4
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ea55b104f38703c503cdbf215bb50b554c4725980c46a38d6e68a6faf0abff9e
BTC 1M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e5f39420178e5ec184138033f81c1883486ce268d20e8815b32306895e805ed4
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d5237d57563905926ca15e4d1b97d933f8a1db4291d2bbbb204cfdc17aa89879
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6977a0392a5e62485b9b32f4c3df70121bbd1f4b9fd6ca33acecffc616749d59
BTC 1M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dbc9c74737f351119fbb2a6e9ca6eb2911af1df59e92e2af3214bbba3c38f134
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d6bb2a0b6dba3100bbf636d41537511f9bab1ff0e4bc208bfdaaee7d628d3907
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6de7da3874d715e1ae7478d607f323f407e9e0726a0f387d5f6accbbbf3fcb5a
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cbdb75821437a81725defef5191fe6c868f0e82c089d2fee55fec42797383a5c
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8d51e724c315d68026369a75a218f479625a44562464054df34fa385b1f8ca11
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:feea07532d0573e162ba57ab3e3254e5ff3727acd422c00de8fce352270b50d9
BTC 3M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7b970c0579585697ebf6cba8b658fd1e2083ccf871bee7afc3132b96d79931fc
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ffa20631a7bfcd2ea1e3f571498c7427fbf7f1e23d9f814d224d3fb438111201
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dde3d8f4e0768408e28b6289d973be5b3b8da51429278ac38a474cfbf8f781a3
BTC 3M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c9cae75ec21c1d880ef7b225e5596d1b1b3d2a5d8776a34b23db6f69a9c100bf
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3fbbc72374ce4f950d7740a3889b0667bffa34def7fa7077c2a679f52ff11e50
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:23796fd31c5b9cbef42be6128f3ab624c9bf33325f066f24eca2bf48b8de4694
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dc0e19a37709595c9e071609416b6210115780da8b0d8f4baaa44cf9855d075e
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3e55e5ac77da86ef8109b9a6b4f88861c42d74e73f9f3804961cc6d8484ce060
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b261b3ad6605c0620be8a858cd9127c6ed9c80221c01b617205ad1f8f5ca6a7d
BTC 6M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:617c72a6fb51168b22a9cf36c6abb38561191c0c0cf36f14ba0e544a3ef5fe6d
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:388edd49141f3497a9429dfb19e3c5810aeed5fe37d771974c5df4d46e1b9b0d
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5bc2636e995f9ef00501a0313d1151a637435590ebf112a4772218ede4a14437
BTC 6M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:57464d3e169265d2c9a2b7f0d929f6dac22792feb7ef4ec3ffa3d050178e4d02
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:aa8691bd1ffb456f0a4ef39df102ffdc6a4ecffb5daadb2d49ddfcb93a348948
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:55728241994aacca1128a95fee03c06839631c1e007ab021a91d6a35f7c7966f
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3bb24c214da232ace86dfb0cc1ddb4086ace8902d166e08443926e87cbdc756c
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e4b7b343058de3bf890985e275e8efa535c0ef01e00b0d3a455ca75121f9316a
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:17357c3b1ca9f8623a89afd2df82d4136bed4ba607f84e0d73fa196eca5c8db7
BTC 9M bf25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3bc50d9491410950e73b1cb41cd8d0c336efd86e549bed9a063a2e3397976570
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f6f4a7f5044f2a58df2055e39671096ced1213ef17b390f19b4cd67b822435fe
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ee70d960493d28d62d20ed0659f6ab0d50cc61512155918ee3cea8314404386e
BTC 9M rr25move30d24 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-21
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:39fd935d22ca5c67b2e28900ebf6794665bb87ba0602384379717de16ff0f987
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory46 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:93881c15184e8d50f6d2ccff77b5213304c79c5c51d81dc00265dcf1af2113bb
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory50 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-21
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8c46f8ab41113ee8af477635fb67ddf0adabb3b1f966eec66eaa263c6c052d81
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable
No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 27NOV26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
23OCT26+0.00660-0.01990-0.01880-0.00560-0.01310rotation towards puts, wing steepening
24OCT26+0.00670-0.01500-0.03740-0.01560+0.00200rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25OCT26+0.00380-0.01340-0.07440-0.03240+0.02540rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26+0.00160-0.00350+0.01630+0.00610+0.00220rotation towards calls, wing steepening
6NOV26+0.02600-0.02760+0.13950+0.10720-0.05260parallel shift higher, rotation towards calls
27NOV26+0.04090-0.01790+0.19630+0.15880-0.14830rotation towards puts
25DEC26+0.02490-0.01600+0.04390+0.06460-0.05110rotation towards puts
26MAR27-0.00790+0.01050-0.05460-0.05180+0.00880parallel shift higher
25JUN27+0.02440-0.01850+0.01470+0.03650-0.02630parallel shift higher
24SEP27+0.00590-0.01640+0.03340+0.05160+0.02750parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma23OCT26, 0.000382 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay23OCT26, -322.64655 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001883 delta / vol pt
Highest Vega24SEP27, 322.087399 USD / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.288748 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC31.38%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 22 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
22 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot
21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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