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Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options accompany a 2.52% 24-hour spot-index gain

BTC 1W ATM IV fell 0.04 volatility points; Skew moved toward puts (-0.18 vol points); Wing premium was unchanged.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Generated timestamp:

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-21 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-20 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-21 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +2.52%1W ATM IV 31.75%1W RR25 -2.58 vol pts1W BF25 +1.76 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.90 vol pts

Lead: BTC spot index rose +2.52% over 24 hours, from $82520.18 to $84603.59.

BTC spot-index endpoints
USD

BTC spot-index endpoints. USD. BTC: Current 84603.59, Previous 82520.18.CurrentPreviousBTC84603.5982520.180.0045685.9491371.88

Current: 21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

24h spot-index return
Percent

24h spot-index return. Percent. BTC: 24h return 2.52.24h returnBTC+2.520.001.362.72

Current: 21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Previous: 20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Bitcoin options accompany a 2.52% 24-hour spot-index gain. Source: Derivasys spot-index data. Exact 24h index endpoints: 82520.18 → 84603.59 USD; return +2.52%. Endpoint prices and percent return use separate panels.
Source: Derivasys spot-index data. Exact 24h index endpoints: 82520.18 → 84603.59 USD; return +2.52%. Endpoint prices and percent return use separate panels. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
Exact 24h spot-index endpoints · 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00
AssetPrevious price, USDCurrent price, USD24h return, %
BTC82520.1884603.59+2.52
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-20: “Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility fall 0.88 points to 31.79%”

Previous publication cutoff 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 20 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 9793537044c3ab47cef1da8236aa1ca27895af918d60b3dbb559f57171e46d2a

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-20 daily edition.

  • BTC 1W ATM IV: prior change -0.88 → current change -0.04 volatility points; same direction.
  • BTC spot-index return: prior change +0.73 → current change +2.52 percent; same direction.
  • BTC 1W RR25: prior change +0.97 → current change -0.18 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 1W BF25: prior change +0.01 → current change 0.00 volatility points; one or both windows unchanged.
  • BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 31.79 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC: met (observed 31.75 percent).
  • BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 32.67 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 21 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 31.75 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 31.75 percent at . Current level 31.75; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 31.79 percent at . Current level 31.75; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 94d454c409a9e7d53e0f6f80139ad493a87c66d5f666f47db468e9e70ffd97cf

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-20/9793537044c3ab47cef1da8236aa1ca27895af918d60b3dbb559f57171e46d2a.json · SHA-256 9793537044c3ab47cef1da8236aa1ca27895af918d60b3dbb559f57171e46d2a

Consumed endpoint proof: 98b6462e2e98f29499e4fa18d1d2d71a9207eef976daa75538b5917403b23a56

  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-21T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-22T16:31:00+00:00.
Chart notes

01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Bitcoin options accompany a 2.52% 24-hour spot-index gain

Bitcoin's 24-hour spot-index return was +2.52% across the exact report window ending at the cutoff. The accompanying options changes were differentiated: Bitcoin two-week ATM IV rose 0.69 volatility points to 35.75%, while Bitcoin one-week ATM IV fell 0.04 volatility points to 31.75%.

At the cutoff, Bitcoin one-week ATM implied volatility stood 2.90 volatility points below Bitcoin seven-day realised volatility of 34.65%. That comparison places forward-looking implied volatility alongside observed variability; the gap alone establishes neither cheapness nor a recommendation. Bitcoin one-year surface measurements remain unavailable because the target tenor falls outside the listed-expiry range at one or both snapshots, and extrapolated values are suppressed.

Cointelegraph's account placed Bitcoin's advance within an equity-market backdrop linked in its reporting to SpaceX's earnings beat. This adds contemporaneous market context to the spot gain, while the options measurements describe a modest front-end volatility increase and a relative shift toward puts.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

41.12 vol points

Measurement 21 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

39.59 vol points

Measurement 21 Oct 2026, 16:29:57 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 63s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-1.52 vol points

As of 21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at +0.69 volatility points, to 35.75%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC to 21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.75%, 2.90 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 34.65%; 24-hour realised volatility was 32.58% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.94%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.20 volatility points to 34.44% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.74% (+0.08 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.17 volatility points to -2.84 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 2.07 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +0.69 volatility points at 2W, to 35.75%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +2.52% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +3.67% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 25OCT26; removed 21OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

6NOV26, -1.77 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, -0.72 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, +0.69 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

2W, +0.24 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, +0.1437 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

6NOV26, -0.0903 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W31.7531.79-0.04 vol pts-0.13%
2W35.7535.06+0.69 vol pts+1.97%
1M35.8335.87-0.04 vol pts-0.11%
3M36.8736.70+0.17 vol pts+0.46%
6M37.7437.66+0.08 vol pts+0.21%
9M38.4338.35+0.08 vol pts+0.21%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.17 volatility points to -2.84 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-3.9 vol pts-3.2 vol pts-2.6 vol pts-1.9 vol pts-1.2 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-2.58-2.40-0.18 vol pts
2W-3.63-2.91-0.72 vol pts
1M-3.53-3.24-0.29 vol pts
3M-2.60-2.80+0.20 vol pts
6M-1.88-2.04+0.16 vol pts
9M-1.50-1.70+0.20 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 2.07 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

1.6 vol pts1.8 vol pts2.0 vol pts2.3 vol pts2.5 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W1.761.760.00 vol pts
2W1.991.75+0.24 vol pts
1M2.051.86+0.19 vol pts
3M2.242.22+0.02 vol pts
6M2.322.28+0.04 vol pts
9M2.322.24+0.08 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

22OCT26, -12.89 vol pts
1.6d

ATM IV change

23OCT26, -2.53 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

30.9%33.0%35.1%37.2%39.2%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
22OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days84,648.69+2180.89 USD27.79%-1.05 vol pts-1.40 vol pts-0.54 vol pts
23OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days84,637.97+2156.18 USD27.25%-2.53 vol pts+0.35 vol pts-0.09 vol pts
24OCT262.6 days84,654.7+2157.14 USD30.19%-0.21 vol pts+0.20 vol pts-0.16 vol pts
30OCT268.6 days84,737.08+2139.73 USD32.62%+0.43 vol pts-0.26 vol pts+0.06 vol pts
6NOV2615.6 days84,825.71+2167.87 USD36.25%+0.24 vol pts-0.73 vol pts+0.27 vol pts
27NOV2636.6 days85,088.21+2170.60 USD35.75%-0.08 vol pts-0.20 vol pts+0.16 vol pts
25DEC2664.6 days85,443.75+2163.55 USD36.36%+0.25 vol pts+0.22 vol pts-0.02 vol pts
26MAR27155.6 days86,563.87+2211.31 USD37.38%+0.06 vol pts+0.15 vol pts+0.05 vol pts
25JUN27246.6 days87,735.05+2216.95 USD38.29%+0.08 vol pts+0.15 vol pts+0.01 vol pts
24SEP27337.6 days88,881.97+2251.45 USD38.69%+0.09 vol pts+0.30 vol pts+0.16 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

22OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
23OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24OCT26wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.1 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.56.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.68%, against VIX at 17.31: a 18.37-point spread and 2.06× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 21.14%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 9.12%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 8.1% of 259 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.558 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.344 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 16.27, 17.31 and 18.99.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 21 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 21 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 21 Oct 2026, 16:29:57 UTC; observed receipt 21 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 21 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 21 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 63s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON
RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-21 16:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-20 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-21 16:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC → 21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC spot index $82520.18 → $84603.59 USD · 24h return +2.52%

Original report summary

Bitcoin's spot index gained 2.52% over the 24-hour report window, according to Derivasys data. The advance accompanied a modest increase in average front-end implied volatility and a relative skew shift toward puts. Those observations describe different dimensions of the market: the underlying gained while relative put-side volatility strengthened against calls. At-the-money implied volatility measures volatility implied by prices of options near the current underlying price; its movement need not mirror the direction of spot.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.75% · Δ -0.04 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -2.58 vol pts · Δ -0.18 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.75% / 7D RV 34.65% · spread -2.90 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 31.75% · Δ -0.04 vol ptspercentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=45); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-20

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -2.58 vol pts · Δ -0.18 vol ptspercentile rank 4.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-20

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.76 vol pts · Δ 0.00 vol ptspercentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=45); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-20

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 31.75% / 7D RV 34.65% · spread -2.90 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=45); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-20

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 4.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-20

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 0.0% by absolute move · full history (n=45); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-20

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 94d454c409a9e7d53e0f6f80139ad493a87c66d5f666f47db468e9e70ffd97cf.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3a6f8ce94f5821e503b86bce5d860c38f18b096d8750d3665a609815d0ecd0a3
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3c191257bb52d4cadef2da57aaa8117dd7af106816c541f5acf9f231bc472dfb
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8ddf3f25492b428b61a9d23987887202c4d39b539ca0ccef907384fe284cfdfd
BTC 1W bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b44cf31f818087a36a7233d0c4e619523e2ca727b36c565ce12392fdd6339409
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d4824fff93452415acb5bf148081e1e3e779fb6155a74d2b74bfb1e0e85a4227
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8f53a988b4b26ffaf92dc08fc76c056bfa9143ce0c58925afe77b45b97ee3bf2
BTC 1W rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:18a80119f8dea3f2ae8c32e6a705d36d7a78fcffc7d6842a724918ce5ddea63c
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f460b62c5302c05da70da045821e76b71fc8a0957bf007db915d764c94e5848f
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dcbb75d8410c2a244bb01213a1a455b8356a64e2ac6b1780c90f3180cf92a06f
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5ad65b0a5977ebca9511503bdbb6039af097f6f3d924f83f227fb01fdf874a6c
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a057b70f437f03feabef6b261a1afeed2b2b6f23feb456948af0c61eb41d3e75
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:644d990e66d917b68c4e1c47a16a9f0df7f6b3f5606dd32c610977d45958d9b9
BTC 2W bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a1ac8132084376a5d96a6cd54a88bc96ceaa5637d94581f4f2579a1ca109e5fc
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0868ea8243cff3100053dc2dedecdb8de996bc24d112c8bea85d2b69c97f9ff7
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0402920229031338e171b09e83a85c86428bdeef62858e508cf2bf38f669892f
BTC 2W rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:be23cf1bd349d176fe0578780caaa85e784974093b56bf88d8c9d5576f7585d8
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a83c3abc59eb311d9b83edf4fa0d1e0d13de0a9bea97d4141c7f39d767cfab9b
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:426d91eb892f509ae2b395b08844b4add078f3c94f2f0efaaeb59147328e7b16
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6326825a8ec74a761c3a06916e74801f5c7e4ff110c5cd0e1689865c83c4b806
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:674e69ee92a88e6eea6d9e341acded7ab0296bbc18128221771631b313891efb
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b20af3145965430dfdd04d13080d321c0f3c9c8969cff164b3857a22ebdeaaf5
BTC 1M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fbdb095443599fdc0f3e4b8d065c6cf24c8cc8d9852937379c602d6b90bbe3a8
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e34db7c8db74ee1c8c615f74311cc699391330590ad4729adb8e2417aa688360
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:78b18b17d4340b4fda638fced3a9f8d267f8409cb4e7cc895c5bf989fdeb4302
BTC 1M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bcd8a9084ebf4697fb78bca34569efb345eb31873ac9abcd3b5e266095c1cd65
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e46886fa34a9e01b360c872203bcf534ffd81ef107f0c365d465748a4f28189c
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1d9243b4d68254cb4956b57aef5fac0b9a3d1db062d7e1ed80f372400125f86b
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:15fa3623b5cbd9cd32827ed4d3f052201bd9cdf8bbfb42eb20f1aa745b64bb2a
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:04760e82f7606cd18b424dddd4823578b0575872f5095ef2f6c1ea231c1cc62d
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7e83b0e5ea4ec1ce0fdd3c9577dab84bc860e4232fa56531cd805825e1023bbe
BTC 3M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:63520105f4f4e9d6273ca9f4317e435e2157a7ce8d98268d7089bacf8a1c0fc4
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:01c07bc6b16214bdbc06679a84281acf585cecb4f0c058de4ad4418034c9f2a9
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5bdc21b0436e81a005a64cb82d5979fe63d8ad07941a446fd3a47eb4136ab2e4
BTC 3M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5d15a7168cc2fb89b51245d8d015074e95a738b64357862629ad8a5d60ebda9f
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:9c99ed5a3ab8bd3100f0a0301dae7334f3fb95f985ee2be9be59739137000b0b
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bb638857848c124f9f36e948e008e9e72c1aa5794b2e5f9387538645c1b3804e
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d17011eaaf172a1cc87f88184f3b1eb2366b9b937a8fc1ecceb09f48ed03f29b
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:21a4bcd426096cb3d1ae926b43def2d51c968874ff8681fbbb6ce284e4c43c08
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:33b9944eab017bc5f1f9e103ed00302c74aa754abb78e162955616905974fda9
BTC 6M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fb87ab93eba13808b0d6722289dd63edcf2476d7171cea3f5bf45cdbafcf1740
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:31d2e7d6516233e27a776a690a7d6c597583b646cecd22b9622d576e2fa1989d
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:78583a28a3dbf52f00b9d833a85bb5e33a12e3611c370dcec04b4542b5c5e401
BTC 6M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:63daf4d39ed0db22b8b74405779ce065c1a3bed1aeee23802982898ca38ef2a2
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:12706f8dd852b2a4e93d19e87fea068ebf0a1a66229f43b7114513f8700af8b2
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2e04e5672500764f6d5ddf6230946616ba09d9be0c06b0db1a53cb987075bde8
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fa9c670f36460e6382218e1eda59551cd79b7ee1a408e01e15fe265b65139976
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:88326fe8c9c13bf12be2735ad9a30abfeb47e90b824d24e52eaa0844c8c385ff
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:82b6577dc13108613f8baa3ee5faaf61900e5965ed77c769bbccb09f747f4b7f
BTC 9M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:437489d8d6ddd3f86f028aa8476e902a781351b267ee3b01725471c2396c5070
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:32e9da21f51b0cdb352a0f724ed2bb727eeffcdeeead248ac2c977002163b3e0
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2bb8722ebcb4fd9be9af6207cd0f7421c394042d33fef64b2b2d849682416c15
BTC 9M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-22 → 2026-10-20
2026-09-22T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0a28a9b2009b56f6941f036f8958d206575c4b4a7f7d2405608b5e8a15630dbb
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory45 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7df8106135191399c55ea36f3242919023717e8866e9edfbd544e4c8cb3f5d9e
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory49 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-20
2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-20T16:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:35a9f68e34d61f68656dae25206ebb0c73e7606218edbacd800bc119bc048af5
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 6NOV26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
22OCT26-0.00410-0.01320-0.17260-0.10030+0.15230rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26+0.02110-0.02800+0.01410+0.00900-0.12270rotation towards calls, wing steepening
24OCT26+0.00120-0.00570-0.02540-0.01450+0.01150wing steepening
30OCT26+0.00330-0.00240-0.01530-0.00950-0.01750rotation towards puts, wing steepening
6NOV26+0.01490+0.00010+0.00300+0.02140-0.09030rotation towards puts, wing steepening
27NOV26-0.01520+0.00980+0.14370+0.11910+0.01390limited movement
25DEC26-0.01360+0.00560+0.00020-0.01160+0.03470parallel shift higher
26MAR27+0.03830-0.01600-0.01250-0.00100-0.08160parallel shift higher
25JUN27+0.01290+0.00850-0.06730-0.08100-0.04320parallel shift higher
24SEP27-0.00720+0.02090-0.02530-0.04500-0.03840parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma22OCT26, 0.000403 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay22OCT26, -305.777659 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001886 delta / vol pt
Highest Vega24SEP27, 335.189421 USD / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.299914 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC34.65%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 21 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
21 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot
20 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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