Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls further toward puts

Name: Weekly BTC options surface changes through 2026-10-17
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

BTC 1W RR25 fell 1.44 vol points to -4.46 vol points over the weekly comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 17 Oct 2026, 18:08 UTC · Generated 17 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Window 10 Oct 2026–17 Oct 2026

Snapshot · 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

BTCSpot-index 7D -2.14%1W ATM IV 31.36%1W RR25 -4.46 vol pts1W BF25 +2.00 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.71 vol pts

BTC1W ATM IV 31.36%1W RR25 Δ -1.44 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

BTCSpot-index 7D -2.14%1W ATM IV 31.36%1W RR25 -4.46 vol pts1W BF25 +2.00 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -2.71 vol pts

Lead weekly move: BTC 1W RR25 Δ -1.44 vol pts → -4.46 vol pts · percentile rank 69.0% by absolute move · 7-day moves · full history (n=29).

Spot-index returns use validated exact seven-day endpoints for all assets. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

Combined market read · weekly observation window

The move in context.

BTC spot fell 2.14%; 1W ATM IV rose 0.60 volatility points to 31.36% over the weekly window. RR25 moved toward puts (-1.44 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.30 points).

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 10 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-10: “Bitcoin options: 2w RR25 falls 2.94 volatility points toward puts”

Previous publication cutoff 10 Oct, 17:02 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 10 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks differ; numerical follow-through and prior-watch outcomes are unavailable.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 48f1a9437492c0acd015b32ab844dea45b8976e473ef97a644cce1ab75798e9a

Measured change since prior report

Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-10-10 edition is verified but ends at 10 Oct, 17:02 UTC; this window requires 10 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.

Next weekly cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: BTC 1W RR25 ≤ -4.46 volatility points at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level -4.46; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W RR25 ≥ -3.02 volatility points at 24 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level -4.46; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 4a9e8a29cdbbd7127e081bea71389ae4bcc9b6b6dcaff8261cc6c7010c69fc80

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/weekly/2026-10-10/48f1a9437492c0acd015b32ab844dea45b8976e473ef97a644cce1ab75798e9a.json · SHA-256 48f1a9437492c0acd015b32ab844dea45b8976e473ef97a644cce1ab75798e9a

Consumed endpoint proof: c0446100a9c936631dafa72b2da4c1c4e18f82ac4b803ea67248002aebf81730

BTC:rr25:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00.
BTC:rr25:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].rr25.change; evaluation window 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-24T16:31:00+00:00.

Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls further toward puts. RR25 term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. RR25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Chart reading: BTC -1.44 vol points between the stored weekly endpoints.
Relative-value reading: Positive RR25 places call-wing IV above put-wing IV; negative RR25 places put-wing IV above call-wing IV.
Combined surface read: ATM IV rose (BTC); RR25 moved toward puts (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC); 1W IV was below 7D RV (BTC).

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 4a9e8a29cdbbd7127e081bea71389ae4bcc9b6b6dcaff8261cc6c7010c69fc80.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:5737909960c30e6f425bbb229e77c7efcd47a61766ae20c84272c339b9c3f2a8`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:693f20961475119f760514da9dcca57c41f9fcf7fa7d49f91b8f5a98f5f31065`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:00e6415643ae3cfd99433aa2050e68af16c26f8fa8eda2324618973eed2d04f5`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:ce1d8a3bc1d04b90bde9973264851b591ff964cadd5fd6e1c441467d9e47225b`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:c1c0ecd7fd8dc07249fdffae15f30b250407919b83c70046bc9ec1773fdc8164`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:aae82b546e76b105cac7d65ff21384b9176f10c73a9aadf479f0414c356a545d`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:c546e99391b75f173a84b6d0a0d8fa45f7875f8e086a7bc305b2eb2a9171e181`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:c495eb9b6f78f453133d27740ca11e09b9b892cdb44ee11b3eb438890d332b5d`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:62dedb7c0e25926e2bd61fb0913af369aa62cfe74c454f3d30f880e2573ed549`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:767a151578a07180eb067a86603f6bd2733a09a65f4f17abc6f855b3a986926c`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:246d2d2552c9434e32c24aba31c1a9eb286316726f6420b322a21bbff7be7bb7`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:99d93c5cf2cad3e902d6a26848e7196f7d86e4018a73345e556ee5907ce19c64`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:aec2cd221d252b5a809d735b1d7a0c1cbd1da2bdb764cc2992cd6e4011a70bf8`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:e71a63e24d2ed940bcd309292f8c51a10af90a296c5f77d13d96ebce8ebd3fb3`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:651fd61e9c3dad39f8d5fe4d1799a89a1f2528e9b48f1ccf4e74c46d82be4253`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:c49910b550012ebf5bfe36a2e6ae150e512a8e8d9a612ceb86e6ce62044b5b6c`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:902700c827acfb567e4d1300c6802c68fa16f72eb40945d0bbf84dea8dd2a96e`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d1465492fe1f1fa043dbd5dffdfaa35e4fab766bc3416ca15ccef891f955aab1`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:7169167f6adb6b493722ed31507f37ec76c49b4480742a8e2d5df18664c5a262`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:25ceaa27f768ef86943184fcc2446595a00f7765fdf6c5d46f6dd2904332eb9f`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ee0ebd9d49fb27ee75532a7d8829544319bb51f5c1ed6f1ec7a99bdaa9075e91`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:bc5caeb9a2444e4c914ee66fa18d40f83e4648d4afcebe9b3d8f78649197070c`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:0737aed8598ebb99f4d32dc0f043163404d306666ab3b2035932c4d383565d78`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:62b07cdb5c0c2f99549a6dab5f380178bf7aefbdd033a9e8bff0826b9006197c`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:67eb205157f4e115a21c5929b0a560761ad7e059ebef040671c7d49ca77716c5`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:f07f20cd15e705c6631700564d7402538949bd933c82cd50444e234bd46be627`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8113d99ba9cebbf973da404fc72be18c02a9d78d39822fb79e336638b27daf15`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:e8ff23f4c9857205fe60be3d29217ba856b4783acc9eb0f7724d1f494b45f632`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:b33fe73b842afd83d932028c8a6b54936581466b0faa09413944ae455b6d6dde`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e0cdcd060c11d772aac2ecfe92ae6bf77219a3ba51323f34e0729c25df030dc5`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:1a3b16e8a177d8c386fc2a20898066b7a009a3d5bd0c0d7e74bacc3fca6e014b`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:06ea2afc11ffa2e860cda28deff7b7a2d507f8627818b1f113c44f1e58c14bcf`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d0e584140e35769be9b7240a9cf43e5a8950492cd44d829906374fb0003d59e3`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:620ac8598ed712c45cfbf5e37c2b456d1ed6029b3d3849b8e389b37682056df0`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:a801de83bd8843bf7673ba86df4d1407246ae103a7d89354b9b74a4093e05731`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e33254f31417eea0d7983c9478949ed90f4f3f6031522537aba460c26e3dae40`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:6d49cd1c45837395e1848c057b20bedf92e4d8d1d24010d2b40101119e472c92`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:a135bfc513be000479971c4c3200fd2678679656999dd5805f2a1994db224428`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9a3aea1e0f7dff29d35005a3dc223e6c4ca1037dd3909c81f9bfed56b988384c`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:531eba6d07f96ff124c6f6de0bb76ccfe44e1649c181876e4e10d4a02b47b662`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:ad2206399f4ced24b310ac2b69f206117152ca1620eb0e5a310396ccfc94053d`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4c6dc4065bf3d3854846f12549b23b357d290577d8fc6eb6fc0ba52c67438774`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:993850accf79075559cbeee09830cc5f5b2a94daa555112fd39f1b33e4a66065`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:a0344459cc2d2b2c7367e8357e9d49707e2133a4434c87e8eebf85d0c4d5b9c9`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4588c432551e624fb9fbdd59121b466da5c84de6bb8f2c1efd8d165dc8291c2c`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:32730f13d3ea4099fbed90ea971711e6544070ca5561fbad45aeb29c393349ff`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:f943f825c03b24504277f1adcd2205c4b2dc329635c4b688ff08c59ec4c5f9b7`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4128d64345e8fe38849ed49e7a2db79206270aca9b202f1a19fda09ff7385b69`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:f9d2940d47d9c05332109f920f8a36983591b11743f0a1500e51a47b5d2d8277`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:1a39e9fedfbe9a7dae92f90d4a04c9e9eb53ced0c98fe4253286c21e0fa40037`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:faa2e276975946d3177cf1e8b33266f2e689aff2e21ffae03288ad7c597886a8`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	17 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-10 → 2026-10-10 2026-09-10T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:f908af085c0d5dedae6cd5763b05ea5e1db04684161e6d9020b5688e2be9f8c1`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	29 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; `sha256:305a5c12ab6f284415c76d9e25b37119cfa2baf7bad353a0dcd2e1413acfeb1f`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	39 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-10 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-10T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a12e86ac7a7234598ae277c1f1c5744eac96719111b03b02d97325948891c65b`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

The week in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

These dated entries organise news across the calendar week. Related daily report links do not identify the stored reports reused in the weekly analysis; those inputs are listed separately.

Saturday 10 October to Wednesday 14 October: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.

Thursday 15 October

Dated news context in measured markets

Related daily report

No separate daily market narrative is included; the weekly overview covers the full comparison window.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources for this date are retained below as context.

Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trendCointelegraph · 07:23 UTC

Friday 16 October to Saturday 17 October: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

43.54 vol points

Measurement 17 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

39.65 vol points

Measurement 17 Oct 2026, 16:29:12 UTC

Stale · 2 min measurement lag

Measurement age 108s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · measurement age exceeds report-cutoff maximum · comparison ineligible

Comparison suppressed — BVIV: Measurement age 108s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · measurement age exceeds report-cutoff maximum · comparison ineligible

As of 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at +1.43 volatility points, to 33.49%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.36%, 2.71 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 34.07%; 24-hour realised volatility was 26.31% and 30-day realised volatility was 33.68%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.93 volatility points to 33.54% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.69% (-0.32 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.78 volatility points to -3.14 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.12 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.43 volatility points at 2W, to 33.49%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -0.42% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.14% over seven days.

Weekly universe roll: added 18OCT26, 19OCT26, 20OCT26, 21OCT26, 6NOV26; removed 11OCT26, 12OCT26, 13OCT26, 14OCT26, 16OCT26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

23OCT26, -7.50 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -1.44 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, +1.43 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

2W, +0.33 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

23OCT26, -0.1890 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

23OCT26, -0.1831 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

Tenor	Week end (vol %)	Week start (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	31.36	30.76	+0.60 vol pts	+1.95%
2W	33.49	32.06	+1.43 vol pts	+4.46%
1M	35.76	35.00	+0.76 vol pts	+2.17%
3M	36.67	37.03	-0.36 vol pts	-0.97%
6M	37.69	38.01	-0.32 vol pts	-0.84%
9M	38.22	38.54	-0.32 vol pts	-0.83%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

ATM IV · 10-15 to 10-16

1W, -2.32 vol pts

RR25 · 10-12 to 10-13

2W, -1.90 vol pts

RR25 · 10-12 to 10-13

1W, -1.87 vol pts

ATM IV · 10-11 to 10-12

1W, +1.65 vol pts

RR25 · 10-15 to 10-16

1W, -1.20 vol pts

ATM IV · 10-11 to 10-12

2W, +1.11 vol pts

Tenor	ATM IV low	ATM IV high	ATM IV range	RR25 range	BF25 range
1W	31.16%	34.17%	3.01 vol pts	1.87 vol pts	0.67 vol pts
2W	32.47%	34.75%	2.28 vol pts	2.01 vol pts	0.57 vol pts
1M	35.15%	36.63%	1.48 vol pts	0.84 vol pts	0.43 vol pts
3M	36.67%	37.68%	1.01 vol pts	0.70 vol pts	0.22 vol pts
6M	37.69%	38.49%	0.80 vol pts	0.41 vol pts	0.30 vol pts
9M	38.22%	39.05%	0.83 vol pts	0.52 vol pts	0.30 vol pts
1Y	38.63%	39.43%	0.80 vol pts	0.79 vol pts	0.34 vol pts

Daily report trail

The stored reports behind the weekly path.

8 stored daily report inputs; 8 separate surface observations. Calendar news-diary entries do not establish which daily reports were reused.

Daily reports qualify by their snapshot time inside the comparison window. A report published earlier on the first date can fall outside that window.

Date	Stored daily report input	Largest daily ATM move	News outcome
10 October 2026	Bitcoin options: 1W RR25 drops 1.03 volatility points, widening put premium	1W: -0.87 vol pts to 30.30%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
11 October 2026	Bitcoin options: 1W ATM IV rises 1.73 volatility points, leading the curve higher	1W: +1.73 vol pts to 32.48%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
12 October 2026	Bitcoin options: wings move closer to ATM as Bitcoin's 1W BF25 drops 0.29 volatility points	1W: -0.25 vol pts to 32.23%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
13 October 2026	Bitcoin options: 16oct26 smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points	2W: -0.68 vol pts to 32.63%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
14 October 2026	Bitcoin options: wings gain relative to ATM as 2W BF25 increases 0.55 volatility points	1W: +2.19 vol pts to 34.11%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
15 October 2026	Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points	1W: -0.81 vol pts to 33.30%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
16 October 2026	Bitcoin options: 1W ATM IV drops 4.50 volatility points	1W: -4.50 vol pts to 28.80%	Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
17 October 2026	BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 2.56 volatility points	1W: +2.56 vol pts to 31.36%	No sufficiently relevant context identified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.78 volatility points to -3.14 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 1W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

Tenor	Week end (vol %)	Week start (vol %)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-4.46	-3.02	-1.44 vol pts
2W	-4.20	-3.21	-0.99 vol pts
1M	-3.12	-2.67	-0.45 vol pts
3M	-2.28	-1.63	-0.65 vol pts
6M	-1.62	-1.26	-0.36 vol pts
9M	-1.41	-0.98	-0.43 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.12 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 2W.

Tenor	Week end (vol %)	Week start (vol %)	Change (vol pts)
1W	2.00	1.70	+0.30 vol pts
2W	2.04	1.71	+0.33 vol pts
1M	2.14	1.95	+0.19 vol pts
3M	2.22	2.27	-0.05 vol pts
6M	2.22	2.36	-0.14 vol pts
9M	2.25	2.42	-0.17 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

Expiry	Time left	Forward end (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV end	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
23OCT26	5.6 days	81,307.08	-1794.87 USD	30.58%	-1.03 vol pts	-1.56 vol pts	+0.32 vol pts
30OCT26	12.6 days	81,405.86	-1788.70 USD	32.75%	-0.48 vol pts	-0.58 vol pts	+0.28 vol pts
27NOV26	40.6 days	81,752.19	-1777.43 USD	35.94%	-0.26 vol pts	-0.65 vol pts	-0.01 vol pts
25DEC26	68.6 days	82,076.94	-1776.89 USD	36.02%	-0.63 vol pts	-0.99 vol pts	+0.03 vol pts
26MAR27	159.6 days	83,141.01	-1796.80 USD	37.50%	-0.38 vol pts	-0.34 vol pts	-0.16 vol pts
25JUN27	250.6 days	84,240.01	-1865.64 USD	38.07%	-0.35 vol pts	-0.44 vol pts	-0.14 vol pts
24SEP27	341.6 days	85,350.52	-1875.56 USD	38.55%	-0.43 vol pts	-0.56 vol pts	-0.20 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

27NOV26rotation towards puts

25DEC26rotation towards puts

26MAR27parallel shift lower

25JUN27parallel shift lower

24SEP27parallel shift lower

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

23OCT26

30OCT26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 17 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 17 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 17 Oct 2026, 16:29:12 UTC; observed receipt 17 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 17 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: Stale, evaluated 17 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 108s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · measurement age exceeds report-cutoff maximum · comparison ineligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Lead signal · 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W RR25 -4.46 vol pts · Δ -1.44 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 69.0% by absolute move · full history (n=29); 7-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-10; rolling periods overlap

Original report summary

Bitcoin 1W call-minus-put RR25 declined 1.44 volatility points between October 10, 2026 at 16:31 UTC and October 17, 2026 at 16:31 UTC. The weekly change extended put-side skew, with the largest RR25 adjustment among standard tenors. Cointelegraph’s developing report of Bitcoin ETF withdrawals provides institutional context, without establishing a cause for the options move.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-10 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-17 16:31:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
23OCT26	+0.03660	-0.02650	-0.18310	-0.09570	-0.18900	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26	+0.01990	-0.00820	-0.02690	-0.03460	-0.12470	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
27NOV26	+0.02490	-0.02110	+0.00280	+0.03590	-0.05880	rotation towards puts
25DEC26	-0.00380	-0.00900	+0.07380	+0.08900	+0.01030	rotation towards puts
26MAR27	+0.04710	-0.04190	+0.01640	+0.05280	-0.05440	parallel shift lower
25JUN27	+0.04670	-0.04040	+0.02980	+0.07110	-0.05070	parallel shift lower
24SEP27	+0.04580	-0.04800	+0.07540	+0.13610	-0.02030	parallel shift lower

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	34.07%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 17 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot: 17 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Week-opening snapshot: 10 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Snapshot selection: The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs: 8 stored daily report inputs, dated 10 October 2026, 11 October 2026, 12 October 2026, 13 October 2026, 14 October 2026, 15 October 2026, 16 October 2026, 17 October 2026. Surface observations and calendar news-diary entries are separate.
Original stored input methodology
The weekly edition reuses 8 stored daily reports from 2026-10-10 through 2026-10-17; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail. Daily report trail coverage is complete. Published historical inputs are SHA-256 verified and pinned with their manifest; offline replay reuses those exact bytes. Daily surface observations are separate from stored daily reports.
Calculations and commentary: Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims: The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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