Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options: 1w ATM IV drops 4.50 volatility points

Name: BTC options surface changes for 2026-10-16
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

BTC 1W ATM IV fell 4.50 vol points to 28.80% over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 16 Oct 2026, 17:24 UTC · Generated 16 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC · Snapshot 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Snapshot · 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

BTCSpot-index 24h -0.50%1W ATM IV 28.80%1W RR25 -2.65 vol pts1W BF25 +1.73 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -4.27 vol pts

BTC1W ATM IV 28.80%1W IV Δ -4.50 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

BTCSpot-index 24h -0.50%1W ATM IV 28.80%1W RR25 -2.65 vol pts1W BF25 +1.73 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -4.27 vol pts

Notable move: BTC 1W ATM IV Δ -4.50 vol pts → 28.80% · percentile rank 82.6% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=23).

Combined market read · daily observation window

The move in context.

BTC spot fell 0.50%; 1W ATM IV fell 4.50 volatility points to 28.80% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward calls (+0.80 points); BF25 wing premium decreased (-0.44 points).

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 15 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-15: “Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points”

Previous publication cutoff 15 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 15 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 91fbe936a220b82b2598e427b70d1860704f252889ca6697d3d51870c09729eb

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-15 daily edition.

BTC 1W ATM IV: prior change -0.81 → current change -4.50 volatility points; same direction.
BTC spot-index return: prior change +0.52 → current change -0.50 percent; direction reversed.
BTC 1W RR25: prior change +0.81 → current change +0.80 volatility points; same direction.
BTC 1W BF25: prior change +0.27 → current change -0.44 volatility points; direction reversed.

BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 33.30 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC: met (observed 28.80 percent).
BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 34.11 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC: not met (observed 28.80 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 28.80 percent at 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 28.80; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 33.30 percent at 17 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 28.80; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 1630c7e24ad2cb9d38308df53822d9177d8198e5acaaed539e80f3e2a2ca2147

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-15/91fbe936a220b82b2598e427b70d1860704f252889ca6697d3d51870c09729eb.json · SHA-256 91fbe936a220b82b2598e427b70d1860704f252889ca6697d3d51870c09729eb

Consumed endpoint proof: 889ea6056a47bd8d1748eb5668a7aed4edc12a8cee76e009dbdbe75c54bfe460

BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-17T16:31:00+00:00.

Bitcoin options: 1w ATM IV drops 4.50 volatility points. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

Chart download and reuse terms

Download 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

Chart reading: BTC -4.50 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: The reading measures ATM implied volatility at the chart’s stated tenor.
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (BTC); RR25 moved toward calls (BTC); BF25 wing premium decreased (BTC); 1W IV was below 7D RV (BTC).

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Friday 16 October

Bitcoin options: 1W ATM IV drops 4.50 volatility points

Bitcoin 1W ATM IV moved lower by 4.50 volatility points between the October 15 and October 16 cutoffs. The resulting 1W ATM IV level was 28.80% at 16:31 UTC. The absolute 1W ATM IV daily move ranked at the 82.6 percentile among 23 matching observations spanning September 15 to October 15, 2026. At the current cutoff, Bitcoin 1W ATM implied volatility stood 4.27 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 33.07%; this descriptive gap alone does not establish options value.

The news backdrop included Decrypt's provisional report that direct peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading in Russia would require authorized intermediaries from July 1, 2027. Cointelegraph reported Capital B's first-half loss and Bitcoin impairment, while CoinDesk provisionally reported a Bitcoin loss involving a tampered Ledger device. These regulatory, corporate and security reports provide context; no measured event reaction establishes a causal link to the options changes.

Macro

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Russia Will Soon Ban Peer-to-Peer Bitcoin Trading, Central Bank ConfirmsDecrypt · 20:31 UTC

Crypto

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

42.61 vol points

Measurement 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

38.89 vol points

Measurement 16 Oct 2026, 16:29:34 UTC

Stale · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible

Comparison suppressed — BVIV: Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible

As of 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -4.50 volatility points, to 28.80%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
Scammer gets scammed in Ledger spy-chip exploit, loses almost $5 million in bitcoinCoinDesk · 10:24 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 19OCT26: -592.52 USD (-0.72%) to 81521.50 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 19OCT26: -592.52 USD (-0.72%) to 81521.50 USD
02
Russia Will Soon Ban Peer-to-Peer Bitcoin Trading, Central Bank ConfirmsDecrypt · 20:31 UTC
macro · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 4.50 points to 28.80%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: ATM IV 1W: down 4.50 points to 28.80%
03
Capital B reports $78M H1 loss driven by Bitcoin impairment chargeCointelegraph · 07:59 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 19OCT26: -592.52 USD (-0.72%) to 81521.50 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 19OCT26: -592.52 USD (-0.72%) to 81521.50 USD

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 28.80%, 4.27 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 33.07%; 24-hour realised volatility was 31.53% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.39%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.97 volatility points to 31.93% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.75% (-0.68 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to -2.66 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.27 volatility points to 2.05 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -4.50 volatility points at 1W, to 28.80%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -0.50% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -1.44% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 20OCT26; removed 16OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -4.50 vol pts

Largest eligible smile rotation

19OCT26, -4.00 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, +0.80 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, -0.44 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

27NOV26, +0.3104 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

30OCT26, +0.2501 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	28.80	33.30	-4.50 vol pts	-13.51%
2W	31.83	34.47	-2.64 vol pts	-7.66%
1M	35.17	36.94	-1.77 vol pts	-4.79%
3M	36.57	37.58	-1.01 vol pts	-2.69%
6M	37.75	38.43	-0.68 vol pts	-1.77%
9M	38.45	39.09	-0.64 vol pts	-1.64%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.05 volatility points to -2.66 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-2.65	-3.45	+0.80 vol pts
2W	-3.77	-4.10	+0.33 vol pts
1M	-3.06	-2.55	-0.51 vol pts
3M	-2.16	-2.04	-0.12 vol pts
6M	-1.68	-1.43	-0.25 vol pts
9M	-1.64	-1.12	-0.52 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.27 volatility points to 2.05 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	1.73	2.17	-0.44 vol pts
2W	1.79	2.12	-0.33 vol pts
1M	2.02	2.37	-0.35 vol pts
3M	2.32	2.50	-0.18 vol pts
6M	2.38	2.45	-0.07 vol pts
9M	2.34	2.44	-0.10 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

17OCT26, -12.08 vol pts

1.6d

ATM IV change

18OCT26, -10.60 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
17OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	81,476.93	-608.00 USD	23.00%	-12.08 vol pts	+0.33 vol pts	-0.83 vol pts
18OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	81,501.42	-596.19 USD	18.77%	-10.60 vol pts	-0.80 vol pts	-0.64 vol pts
19OCT26	2.6 days	81,521.5	-592.52 USD	20.96%	-8.35 vol pts	0.00 vol pts	-0.82 vol pts
23OCT26	6.6 days	81,582.59	-593.14 USD	28.48%	-5.16 vol pts	+0.97 vol pts	-0.47 vol pts
30OCT26	13.6 days	81,700.93	-581.94 USD	31.59%	-2.92 vol pts	+0.31 vol pts	-0.37 vol pts
6NOV26	20.6 days	81,776.44	-585.44 USD	34.65%	-2.25 vol pts	-0.33 vol pts	-0.31 vol pts
27NOV26	41.6 days	82,033.74	-589.15 USD	35.48%	-1.49 vol pts	-0.69 vol pts	-0.35 vol pts
25DEC26	69.6 days	82,378.03	-579.13 USD	35.92%	-1.26 vol pts	-0.16 vol pts	-0.26 vol pts
26MAR27	160.6 days	83,423.61	-562.46 USD	37.48%	-0.71 vol pts	-0.11 vol pts	-0.05 vol pts
25JUN27	251.6 days	84,530.63	-576.75 USD	38.31%	-0.66 vol pts	-0.54 vol pts	-0.10 vol pts
24SEP27	342.6 days	85,607.26	-586.65 USD	38.77%	-0.62 vol pts	-0.51 vol pts	-0.07 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

17OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

18OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

19OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

30OCT26parallel shift lower · rotation towards calls

6NOV26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts

27NOV26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts

25DEC26parallel shift lower

26MAR27parallel shift lower

25JUN27parallel shift lower

24SEP27parallel shift lower

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

17OCT26

18OCT26

19OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

6NOV26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.2 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.63.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 36.65%, against VIX at 16.46: a 20.19-point spread and 2.23× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 21.12%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 9.61%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 7.0% of 256 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.629 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.351 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 13.97, 16.46 and 18.49.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 15 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

MCP market-context-v1; quality valid; ingestedAt 2026-10-15T22:30:50.974205Z. All represented metrics have observationTimestamp 2026-10-15T20:00:00Z and freshness fresh, ageSeconds 73860, evaluatedAt 2026-10-16T16:31:00Z. Volatility levels and spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto IV: Derivasys 30-day fixed-tenor surface, ACT/365 implied-volatility convention. Crypto RV: Derivasys canonical crypto index, 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns, sqrt(365). SPX RV: ^GSPC, 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns, sqrt(252). Benchmark levels: yahoo_finance ^VIX, ^VIX9D and ^VIX3M US cash-session closes. Alignment tolerance 600 seconds. Returned IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with sampleCount 32; no IV percentile claim is permitted. Returned one-session changes: IV spread 0.6400017547607391 volatility_points, IV ratio 0.06774830978916935 ratio_change, RV spread 0.8773869946137793 volatility_points, RV ratio 0.1651089797065115 ratio_change. Return-correlation percentile metadata: 30-session 76.41921397379913 with 229 prior observations; 60-session 11.834319526627219 with 169. Empirical percentiles use prior valid observations only. Mixed crypto/SPX annualization bases are preserved.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 16 Oct 2026, 16:29:34 UTC; observed receipt 16 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 16 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: Stale, evaluated 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-15 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-16 16:31:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W ATM IV 28.80% · Δ -4.50 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 82.6% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15

Original report summary

Bitcoin 1W ATM implied volatility fell 4.50 volatility points to 28.80% between the October 15 and October 16 cutoffs, leading the standard-tenor declines in Derivasys data. Average ATM IV across 1W, 2W and 1M fell 2.97 points to 31.93%. One-week skew became less negative while butterfly curvature declined, adding detail to the front-end repricing.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 28.80% · Δ -4.50 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -2.65 vol pts · Δ +0.80 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 28.80% / 7D RV 33.07% · spread -4.27 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 28.80% · Δ -4.50 vol ptspercentile rank 82.6% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -2.65 vol pts · Δ +0.80 vol ptspercentile rank 55.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-15

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.73 vol pts · Δ -0.44 vol ptspercentile rank 90.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-15

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 28.80% / 7D RV 33.07% · spread -4.27 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 82.6% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 55.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-15

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 90.0% by absolute move · full history (n=40); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-15

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 1630c7e24ad2cb9d38308df53822d9177d8198e5acaaed539e80f3e2a2ca2147.

Daily options-surface context unavailable: the stored receipt does not validate.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:095977323ae61b5c78b4565f66d10446b3347c34ea6e717d697486246a6bda41`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a8d370b13f185385007634acc60c939e6fcc6b9d1f91d3858bbd85459bda8c24`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a49c3f8eb7bc2049179f9cc46ba1356febfb2f3dfdce5c6ce0f6cd41d13b9e64`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8df1ab0540ae83d8c81199505ab6f004c00143b68f4b4053f1649c7c3c6fcfd0`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bdafd610fd54d30906cbc3ff302740548e1a0804d156a4b42b13f1151fcf868e`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6f92841a68ac5f2078fae3d72068af931eeb7123b402bd7f96ac52a97305faad`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f0f5683fe3e5f0abc659ee24c6970e62c84d27810a4e9ccffe0873e4e589333b`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:22e03c10f13fd70fd113ac37a1a174fa3051cc7e0b0732524f9dc84bfa1790cc`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3d84060f24263826a3f9f0cca59352bafa0a3b23c312e7c7df04adc7039c9ee4`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b3d8d146baacb2229846d2596b0791515d3d14c0753ad3099f1b3ba6aa265bd9`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:42eb0798e1a67247f8d6cff82fdd7f422a02fb712fb5a61e00a5620523e65b0b`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b55e87f24a0fc11031bcd642c7b63a005b928ff6deea93048816748ee5885feb`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1d825f1a88d64192d7ce5d21643f6045949adea2fbcf41ae1091bc8df3bfd024`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3bc5b1356d0ce17bce7ed90a6a5bd41e0a9b6931d8a5a5655e9af0ae0121c8b9`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ffc6d34f45322df7b4d92b3a77c6296e64dab049e88833950b02661013d6fb0e`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1bcace6a86b2a7f864e7930ee1ac03c400947e9a1f411756bb3d919322f10136`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:bd816c90c58dc582356ddb29bad1dffba1a6f789f2fb74d0cf3bb893fa8096dd`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4cf91049a1cfe47e157d7c697a8002a02496ce1eaf9d631088e1b503ac169fcf`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9bf01b3078392243aa5d003f5e4a2e35641936045e5d8e081800294c4ad5b7ad`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:82ab1fd54a857e3a3c9daa6f25676d9ba7d429fff95d7edf3c8a74cfafd92ee6`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a6bb720c6ec67a6185d718c000b97b7852881fd1d26f7729df4590d418f46a3f`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:54b8bcab518c38c8753cafdd4e4d19ff8a886dc888880ff465d93112a6db5798`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6308522da30857bfb96f214685c39f8b985310568012313fcb2bfa36534a4409`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3a583d58484c05601de96d62a80cc23a3155d4b1dd42709dae918a5e934ac553`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ff74908dfe3186139255855058205370917583b957616331cbc686773d4d3634`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d86085ac8ee8d8bd5bb9fdabe2e7a10283b45def8f8539c11f2bc111da83ffd1`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e49216f010266d70dbf23714e9df527778f0c770816539ad5b6d7eaeb3bfade8`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3496c73acd572a5bfcfe813c6f88e22a463ebe079a2ebf1af583cad0498346bd`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8d4c8c9adf08eb954ed8ae320cbcd06d5e3cc2dacda8d1f8fe2e6a065afc83bc`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:efbf26923398965f3a4476defe662792a2cdc752382c6383e6924986ae2eb9cd`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a354859d425b3f21cca357a43347fa3b88569c44e773343198d83bb55687cdca`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d5c8663134eb08d39cd93bca3f49e42f077be13e284c868ca1beacd2484fc4fb`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6f896365bcc66ebc60733284a1122ade90c884a7632e194a18b8807764cd68ff`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:75ced558f82dae2de490b8a823cb53d3ea4ab661c583ea21319ab440fcd6c906`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f30d78382458cdc9da1346a326f96ab894c9796f64bc5e4be9a04549fdb5c248`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:64a9a7cc44ee8e2137075468c5a6ed42f200b40c447d04dd0ef80b688d0067aa`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d70dd2c8ee232808421219adf8b1a64d8580f77444ddbb98043cc2c9d3f46f91`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:717966733df5a1706867ef24331c563f22c1a16fd366705ca644fc2bdc4f89a3`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9996fcd2e1addf685ae2ceec2d5c1565cefd83dfabd0e3a8753d5e86e617189d`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:529fb186a21ceb3a1ba1862e6a3b1611a1bf6debd4763f1fc89dd38fbf26d66a`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1b9a70bd223b18b53c6fe8c95402670aaa779ff132d456920e7e6d4d398e1af9`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e001be1ae6ecbfb8eebcaf7ab388bf2ae2c960af6ab54ab3707c6831fdc5643d`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c4be680e00ead1a79d7aae6e2da459e2f5c61641c2d1597f7776457c2be144c0`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f5f06163a3a381d549f783e1e606d05e5ec03f87235cdf5bf5f5ac347e37286`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b28d06e5e8144f3fd18bf68338434c56c28b8619d4da9105ac224e0a960accfa`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a58229ab98603aa4f4163567c6b04f744bb7bc5777a0ea5f3680b8459e0313fd`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6885791dee073db0a67cad3c2f315a3c73d49be2ae6ef9fe00075ee4a6a12412`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:457cbbc6efade6c5d1a2b6dcf7959ec325c58785fac3ad2449616f8b257521a1`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:92a3d85aef30f76bb0e0ce016a718c0ed51ac16f8406ff689bae1dacf36a3e7e`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a9a79781224d6b0f40244fe290a1828d73630266375972a4e6a44f8790745947`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:340a6f46ee068a0186e7a70b44dc88f4d81358fadbc9a5cd311af894e0ac6bea`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-15 → 2026-10-15 2026-09-15T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:177056877a8c48d736cca281cede23e7443455bd185d7b9291d7b4560e891979`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	40 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:410e6048d15c38d6170a4d1f8cf506870fc067d78d2cded8c2166e71e58d6c34`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	44 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-15 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0ab718a840598f788b4f2b87e2c0d19cc2e23ecd264a6c3171cb912b8fc13d25`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 30OCT26; the largest sigma change occurred at 27NOV26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
17OCT26	+0.01260	-0.02510	-0.02590	-0.01320	-0.01880	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
18OCT26	+0.01110	-0.01790	-0.09630	-0.03380	-0.03630	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
19OCT26	+0.00270	-0.01700	-0.08630	-0.05000	+0.05130	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26	-0.01140	+0.00580	+0.16630	+0.06130	+0.06190	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26	-0.02320	+0.01650	+0.25010	+0.11990	+0.10900	parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls
6NOV26	-0.05740	+0.02440	+0.17090	+0.04710	+0.22140	parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
27NOV26	-0.08700	+0.03090	+0.13910	-0.00750	+0.31040	parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
25DEC26	-0.03110	+0.00560	+0.03240	+0.00530	+0.10060	parallel shift lower
26MAR27	-0.02600	-0.00050	+0.08270	+0.06280	+0.06760	parallel shift lower
25JUN27	-0.10600	+0.00850	+0.24740	+0.23870	+0.24940	parallel shift lower
24SEP27	+0.01880	-0.05030	+0.23390	+0.32970	+0.02760	parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma17OCT26, 0.000506 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay17OCT26, -243.549644 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001899 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 325.114621 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.295818 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	33.07%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 16 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 16 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Live dashboard All reports Daily metrics data Latest BTC daily Latest weekly API Volatility surface guide What is SVI? Risk reversals Butterflies Local volatility Variance swaps

The move in context.

Previous publication · research context

Prior watch: measured outcome

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Get reports by email