Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points

Name: BTC options surface changes for 2026-10-15
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

Bitcoin's 18OCT26 options smile rotation rose 6.89 volatility points against the prior daily cutoff, according to Derivasys data. The shift across strikes accompanied a 0.81-point rise in 1W RR25 to -3.45 volatility points, leaving put implied volatility above call implied volatility. Matching history for the expiry-specific rotation is unavailable, preventing a rarity assessment.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 15 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC · Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

Snapshot · 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC

BTCSpot-index 24h +0.52%1W ATM IV 33.30%1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts1W BF25 +2.17 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -0.14 vol pts

BTC1W ATM IV 33.30%Spot-index 24h +0.52%

Full snapshot readings

BTCSpot-index 24h +0.52%1W ATM IV 33.30%1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts1W BF25 +2.17 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV -0.14 vol pts

Combined market read · daily observation window

The move in context.

BTC spot rose 0.52%; 1W ATM IV fell 0.81 volatility points to 33.30% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward calls (+0.81 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.27 points).

One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 14 Oct, 16:31 UTC to 15 Oct, 16:31 UTC.

Measured change since prior report

Prior comparison unavailable: the exact adjacent published edition could not be verified.

A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; this compares measured changes only.

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 33.3 percent at 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 33.3; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 34.11 percent at 16 Oct, 16:31 UTC. Current level 33.3; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.

Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 91fbe936a220b82b2598e427b70d1860704f252889ca6697d3d51870c09729eb

Consumed endpoint proof: 9281c67ab655fb8c2e82ea300bbe5cdf0d155fa158447346619e566b67b29e99

BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-15T16:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-16T16:31:00+00:00.

Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (BTC); RR25 moved toward calls (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC); 1W IV was below 7D RV (BTC).

The day in markets.

Thursday 15 October

Bitcoin options: 18oct26 smile rotation rises 6.89 volatility points

Bitcoin's 18OCT26 smile rotation increased 6.89 volatility points between October 14 and October 15 at 16:31 UTC; endpoint rotation levels are unavailable. Supporting the callward adjustment, 1W call-minus-put RR25 increased from -4.26 to -3.45 volatility points. That 0.81-point daily move ranked at the 56.4 percentile among 39 matching daily moves over August 29–October 14. Bitcoin 1W BF25 rose 0.27 volatility points to 2.17 volatility points.

In separate news context, Cointelegraph reported an [intraday Bitcoin decline alongside the US PPI release](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-breaks-under-80k-after-us-ppi-gains-most-in-over-4-years) and [Bitcoin ETF outflows alongside a differing XRP fund trend](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-outflow-btc-below-82k). CoinDesk reported a [Bitcoin mining-pool shutdown following a hashrate decline](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/15/bitcoin-mining-pool-once-handling-2-3-of-network-shuts-after-hashrate-falls-65). Each account is provisional, single-source reporting; none establishes a cause of the measured options changes.

Macro

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Bitcoin slips under $80K after US PPI gains most in four yearsCointelegraph · 15:10 UTC

Crypto

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

47.19 vol points

Measurement 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

41.14 vol points

Measurement 15 Oct 2026, 16:29:28 UTC

Stale · 2 min measurement lag

Measurement age 92s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · measurement age exceeds report-cutoff maximum · comparison ineligible

Comparison suppressed — BVIV: Measurement age 92s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · measurement age exceeds report-cutoff maximum · comparison ineligible

As of 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -0.81 volatility points, to 33.30%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
Bitcoin mining pool once handling 2.3% of network shuts after hashrate falls 65%CoinDesk · 04:13 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD
02
Bitcoin slips under $80K after US PPI gains most in four yearsCointelegraph · 15:10 UTC
macro · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: ATM IV 1W: down 0.81 points to 33.30%
03
Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trendCointelegraph · 07:23 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 18OCT26: +382.23 USD (+0.47%) to 82097.61 USD

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 33.30%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 33.44%; 24-hour realised volatility was 51.15% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.87%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 34.90% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.43% (+0.04 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.52 volatility points to -2.71 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.32 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.81 volatility points at 1W, to 33.30%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.52% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +1.12% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 19OCT26, 6NOV26; removed 15OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

18OCT26, +6.88 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -0.81 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, +0.81 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.27 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI rho move

24SEP27, -0.0859 param

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

30OCT26, +0.0755 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	33.30	34.11	-0.81 vol pts	-2.37%
2W	34.47	34.62	-0.15 vol pts	-0.43%
1M	36.94	36.14	+0.80 vol pts	+2.21%
3M	37.58	37.49	+0.09 vol pts	+0.24%
6M	38.43	38.39	+0.04 vol pts	+0.10%
9M	39.09	39.03	+0.06 vol pts	+0.15%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.52 volatility points to -2.71 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-3.45	-4.26	+0.81 vol pts
2W	-4.10	-4.87	+0.77 vol pts
1M	-2.55	-3.24	+0.69 vol pts
3M	-2.04	-2.17	+0.13 vol pts
6M	-1.43	-1.65	+0.22 vol pts
9M	-1.12	-1.21	+0.09 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.32 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	2.17	1.90	+0.27 vol pts
2W	2.12	2.27	-0.15 vol pts
1M	2.37	2.36	+0.01 vol pts
3M	2.50	2.45	+0.05 vol pts
6M	2.45	2.53	-0.08 vol pts
9M	2.44	2.53	-0.09 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

16OCT26, -2.49 vol pts

1.6d

Smile rotation

17OCT26, +2.21 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
16OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	82,065.58	+357.46 USD	34.71%	-2.49 vol pts	+1.72 vol pts	-1.02 vol pts
17OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	82,084.93	+369.33 USD	35.08%	-0.33 vol pts	+1.52 vol pts	-0.66 vol pts
18OCT26	2.6 days	82,097.61	+382.23 USD	29.37%	-3.12 vol pts	+2.51 vol pts	-0.53 vol pts
23OCT26	7.6 days	82,175.73	+374.95 USD	33.64%	-0.79 vol pts	+0.61 vol pts	+0.35 vol pts
30OCT26	14.6 days	82,282.87	+375.08 USD	34.51%	-0.14 vol pts	+0.87 vol pts	-0.21 vol pts
27NOV26	42.6 days	82,622.89	+383.27 USD	36.97%	+0.34 vol pts	+0.44 vol pts	-0.04 vol pts
25DEC26	70.6 days	82,957.16	+389.06 USD	37.18%	+0.12 vol pts	+0.02 vol pts	+0.08 vol pts
26MAR27	161.6 days	83,986.07	+342.53 USD	38.19%	+0.02 vol pts	+0.26 vol pts	-0.06 vol pts
25JUN27	252.6 days	85,107.38	+364.91 USD	38.97%	+0.05 vol pts	+0.12 vol pts	-0.10 vol pts
24SEP27	343.6 days	86,193.91	+360.51 USD	39.39%	+0.08 vol pts	-0.02 vol pts	-0.10 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

16OCT26wing steepening

17OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

18OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards calls

27NOV26rotation towards calls

25DEC26parallel shift higher

26MAR27limited movement

25JUN27limited movement

24SEP27parallel shift higher

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

16OCT26

17OCT26

18OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.2 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.62.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 36.42%, against VIX at 16.87: a 19.55-point spread and 2.16× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 20.93%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 10.30%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 5.1% of 255 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.623 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.352 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 14.59, 16.87 and 18.79.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 14 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1. Derivasys fixed 30-calendar-day ATM IV uses ACT/365; crypto 20-calendar-day close-to-close RV uses sqrt(365), SPX 20-US-session RV uses sqrt(252). Mixed annualisation is preserved. Return correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Provider Derivasys+yahoo_finance; sources Derivasys canonical index/surface, ^GSPC, ^VIX, ^VIX9D, ^VIX3M. Ingested 2026-10-14T22:30:50.455123Z. Returned freshness fresh, ageSeconds 73860, evaluatedAt 2026-10-15T16:31:00Z; quality valid. IV spread and ratio percentiles are null, each with sampleCount 31. All metric observation timestamps are 2026-10-14T20:00:00Z.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 15 Oct 2026, 16:29:28 UTC; observed receipt 15 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; ingested 15 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Freshness: Stale, evaluated 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 92s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · measurement age exceeds report-cutoff maximum · comparison ineligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-14 16:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-15 16:31:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Original report summary

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 33.30% · Δ -0.81 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts · Δ +0.81 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 33.30% / 7D RV 33.44% · spread -0.14 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 33.30% · Δ -0.81 vol ptspercentile rank 39.1% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -3.45 vol pts · Δ +0.81 vol ptspercentile rank 56.4% by absolute move · full history (n=39); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 2.17 vol pts · Δ +0.27 vol ptspercentile rank 74.4% by absolute move · full history (n=39); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 33.30% / 7D RV 33.44% · spread -0.14 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 39.1% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 56.4% by absolute move · full history (n=39); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 74.4% by absolute move · full history (n=39); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-29 to 2026-10-14

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 91fbe936a220b82b2598e427b70d1860704f252889ca6697d3d51870c09729eb.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9f6a4346b244d8a5e590435770184746949afe3e103d3b3f418e72c329beb4d7`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d7461b5a7557feccba4b364876e88c67bd8bea50481707dc5dd9a8108da8194a`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d04dfc2b9a86f1ec5476254c929b45ffe478c8302daa6233a2e6a0a4fa8d9818`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2b0f199665270bd101f291134e67630424627717e35c62c13cb595d439563232`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:336078a8aeba6eca279f5b0c7ec1be9bff950e319b00863620d4070c3e67b40f`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4dfdfcf2772535bd929dbd1b025df4f4f9a00da1a9fc4be72c1b32627679267b`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:606ad1bdb3f5c1c0a9d22a1524bccd1f68a368f64f53240e0292fb263c340e67`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f9255a60b9b82981739be79639115f04ea0b3a561c1d0422b6eba1ee4eeb8a0f`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5a7afc2c20005f79e047d6408d74f6df184ac5284c4c934430f9799a35226037`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7d53c3e4c58e93921c6d2bdfe20e5326207667b1d873715b076e685f18cb7897`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:04f28229f45fb195485ac3d16e055421ac9eea016adb10fdd80269d7aa3d389f`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:02e82f492c0710efe6dc2ffcc73aa3fb8b335e3b301aa6a73f4859ff158fd576`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7fa498cf11171567e3478af0dc9afc997ba68051f024fcb3b1ea6753badfb760`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2203169caba86a7e74c1ae81b9b9438baca4ee5b44c50f3548d568ae48e218a3`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d7c89cc89774d2c1268878797fe53760da43ca56cd23a09b928f595257f96624`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c20ffbd4a09b5826d96e27062d09d43727ca440f1446d7aaadf9fcf0bddc5fa9`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:44ccd21ab65131b1225c7e32e91c06544eab27507986ba5c1f89585a8adab40c`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a097ece4e75108af885b98120438517d91bf7ceb1995d0888d737d91c2dfc735`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9e30142ece882eb41de13edb7bb39c98797480814e933e240b2de4e014cb1072`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9a89512e9284d7a97f875ef355f1c24564cfa33f2f524cc1032e95c77e3c3a24`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:919c34cb2e20ffcfe4cd8d85d95d42c3d4a709888515a1a6a4a1b215c52a70c4`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:330e86477dd3819ae7ea7861fd4b55761cf77e702137118406f444509aa3e189`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6db1ae3d3e831914fd9bd6f37774d72dd83281a292420050d19508fb4308410f`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:21aed639ec51ac1bab73f0b97c699f21766a4c0c3dcb6217c84538917af0969f`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:44d75c846f831aa77a57f998ada2153641a9b8e46c749fa91d473143a9ffe13f`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5ac7101881157c03424fe1a9baff24c82064954ad91163a20559602df43b0a4d`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:35ca1fd47584b3e16b9c7a733b87fc8fe93f8ad1de9814b0884a535c84b24c67`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0b9091d649dbcb168d81ba92b623e4e979897408e540c60d6c1fe03bc32c2a79`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ee6febf818f70e905ea88cfb6236c54511099b0aac81a701170a7bdb86764d00`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4d87a028cf5c25b4c75ef875cd098c995d44e1d3cbdbd9ad9421c99de1e37761`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:01400a905fcf3aac89277d5a6ef2342cbf0c6cb57016bce1da2ddeabce11539a`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:fd9e67e439a4097c16658406da53790cdaf450f337d3b4b5cdec2987b19db7ca`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e73ddac51ac2576090e1d9b2323554b2c7f64bdc3094c3091df16ad3c158d3ce`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0ed885ab68a92a61dad7c0b3186ff615a72a5beaf8efe73303846bda1e5f71de`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2b7838673137de752954405830f5408ff7cc4b93106128c96010eac380cf06c9`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:553bd39c382506730f5c3fa069efafe967f6a12422e5f98895c1d1e9d5a17093`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a5135f8d0822a610a7cff8d2b59709be0d0f77dddbed15302d38678c3dad8364`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f087fb4520e9cf4e0e7189b104a3abf4b59ef6e1af098cd64e24abb5d7528158`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4ee63ea6dc6033c1940eb4ca488856819a43d1c24aa36c6a7c67b28e3fca3f60`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:05f7c78de1901d7ad576314d2695657b36bf204aa9f2b43c598d528a3c3db927`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:14c02609bb25ea7d32a5190ba482e0e78fa8267db82981283747f107e3a5649a`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5b43c5ece7ded39d79fc137daee3d63c4ec84963f1a2b33a4c7ce85a0b564574`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cb17c2f676c18a58a1fab8bf1249a6007dfda30dc0c72e0d9831df039a79f2e3`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:43e39bec59a459b73f26f8a8d4bf698d0ee0e90a528c295d2217511863bb79ac`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0e0c9a0789b2cd332f091059270ec17df7bf3a280d09050bcee35723f4a1fe9e`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:17db51352695de224d7aac8694ef2ec14e88a2fa63ea0f71c145bb990144ae87`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a2418127812781be5cfd9802195a87262df0fcab236a2a5c609c29b4a7da56ad`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:0db4d3714258e5e98fc91a73c74be279055534e3cd009d8fb99f3a745d92b168`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6b5d78ecb1fb1eb3660dd2483b931caa84939b92d5635e9e3a780bb91fd44ef1`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:2c1ceeedff92b9d29a61849e5756381725f2a15cd6f8c886c2a724545131968f`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e363f4636e55e5fc29a6f74b3047e761ec7696935857ed12a6692ba2017655f5`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-14 → 2026-10-14 2026-09-14T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:45ba46b9868a616e97965374e1bc708dab4835df0cd6e646d6eeded2b62ef9d8`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	39 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:61381a75341add2e267541c81fc958f7d6de4164398f5c363327e8b8bc377070`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	43 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-14 2026-08-29T16:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-14T16:31:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:5dfbfc46a07285ec22a39ee05aaeff44c0152623b43c73e39f0e2ad6e5483ff3`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 24SEP27; the largest sigma change occurred at 30OCT26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
16OCT26	+0.00560	-0.02560	-0.00540	-0.01950	+0.04450	wing steepening
17OCT26	-0.01060	+0.00020	-0.02950	-0.03560	+0.10770	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
18OCT26	-0.00880	+0.00480	-0.00540	-0.02520	+0.06470	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
23OCT26	+0.00050	+0.01210	-0.06940	-0.03910	-0.05400	rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26	-0.01270	+0.01210	-0.06910	-0.04740	+0.07550	rotation towards calls
27NOV26	+0.01380	-0.01510	-0.00240	+0.01320	-0.03990	rotation towards calls
25DEC26	+0.00890	-0.00380	+0.00530	+0.01190	-0.02980	parallel shift higher
26MAR27	-0.01540	+0.01800	-0.04990	-0.06770	+0.02480	limited movement
25JUN27	-0.00610	+0.01530	-0.07620	-0.09000	+0.00480	limited movement
24SEP27	-0.00010	+0.01260	-0.08590	-0.11580	-0.00450	parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma16OCT26, 0.000333 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay16OCT26, -370.224362 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.0019 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 327.616081 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.303745 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	33.44%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 15 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 15 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Live dashboard All reports Daily metrics data Latest BTC daily Latest weekly API Volatility surface guide What is SVI? Risk reversals Butterflies Local volatility Variance swaps

The move in context.

Measured change since prior report

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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