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Bitcoin options: wing premium widens as 2w BF25 rises 0.55 volatility points

Name: BTC options surface changes for 2026-10-14
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

BTC 2W BF25 rose 0.55 vol points to 2.27 vol points over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 14 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC · Snapshot 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

Snapshot · 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

BTCSpot-index 24h -2.16%1W ATM IV 34.11%1W RR25 -4.26 vol pts1W BF25 +1.90 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +3.12 vol pts

BTC1W ATM IV 34.11%2W BF25 Δ +0.55 vol pts

Full snapshot readings

BTCSpot-index 24h -2.16%1W ATM IV 34.11%1W RR25 -4.26 vol pts1W BF25 +1.90 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +3.12 vol pts

Notable move: BTC 2W BF25 Δ +0.55 vol pts → +2.27 vol pts · percentile rank 97.2% by absolute move · full history (n=36); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-13.

Bitcoin options: wing premium widens as 2w BF25 rises 0.55 volatility points. BF25 term structure from Derivasys data. — Source: Derivasys options data. BF25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

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Chart reading: BTC +0.55 vol points between the stored daily endpoints.
Relative-value reading: Positive BF25 places average wing IV above ATM IV; negative BF25 places it below.
Next watch: Watch whether 2W BF25 extends or reverses this move at the next daily comparison.
Combined surface read: ATM IV rose (BTC); RR25 moved toward puts (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC); 1W IV was above 7D RV (BTC).

Measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 4d13d8b2bea209f077b7aba38abaa45a4dd883d546e1bf35dfaf62cd091b52f8.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f3b577e15e2f0349f8b12b0c7fe8c96a9582ca6c0112a08033a74ea78fec7950`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7e9b5cb64ccb35516df133b8326b25e37c908fc8706a58babcee302ac2d531e2`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ffe69b6d85c2e24893fc12768c0474a4ff8582f5d9e7873185d255dfa7e005cd`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3055d70aeeba3f4b581357eba9145ab87464e8b98fb89089a743fb065768fcc7`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:3c67daaf26b1ef5a01ddfddb5b01a4a4752768d353160a7ed5a5e8f3619c1484`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8a976cbcdc84fc1bf7a026d552ee82d785ec58d1d9032cd1d868c2309ef7535b`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:963adb1d4fd98d360d6acaa1be38ba65907892683033664bbc13e95ba865d090`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:897dd67fcfc04dbc4e9bca37561394bdccdd3c363b0fe0cfc1cf1a0f4da9213f`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4c8882c37ae9993a8f5f2703aa2d8d9e28bdf886ac9a3be6c80b2f6c2df4394a`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8a74db3df7d4cca18bca42b37590681bd7f2b7b0281ba8ed0fa0c01b7a4255ea`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cbf94683c8fd3451eba50ae808f4a42620ee139aba41622d1f1cfe574e935a8d`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:51c26668f1759fc0ce2a160044a7218d58a39e6b749967499aaa142e49a7318f`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:51fe83adc36e5a96680be1fe7634e3c373ffd5f049eff6faf628defcd72c2bdd`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:cba4e1be652fb610b98b5b6243ca0ce6a0a108e6c38b8bbf81807e61988b7003`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:669790cfb3d52cd869cffe696095c95261110ef406ec438cae76306a426bff98`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:198433cd0a38da4ae92768d2a349d035ff13ef183a1f2f009e4074e27f5fac17`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:769ff25fed345946b649789b7a0b425fb32a89ae3a11c3224b20e2500bb0be8a`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:09da324956c288a0bbdd8a995825a8c8164ae7ddb23c323ebe24709807c0d0ce`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:d84aa7e2a7501b1708460ca8ccd89fb14f8bde03d7561024f4d3fbae778a1f62`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:485ad1df2bfcdc5836d6546c57227e066915c897a5c6e61b0657a81de875e379`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6fc6d779e3ba75b558bf04b5a83177338ca0bcd2e100c457f420a900e3f7910d`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:02caf73a2510ac4da6d37bd7b955b6639cf466d0934d9c6221e09a316a9a1e9f`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:59d9193b814ae296ba8ce8cf9c4c4d5aa070e22f1d66bc604841b6a727e111e5`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:407f1bdd3b54e90e11c50f1bb48a5bf7de1cf961fd52cfb4ed3a5af6a0236fc6`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:1e12e51366d3d64f1635c923b0281f85c99f9fbd2b0f4170d17600017abe0103`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c4e2388b881dfdc371ab3e1de4d0ab1199aae05b74b4a0d0dfb51fde717def84`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:28a866caffc291d6635fb58df05ff0d6b915e74310517d37b74bf5b5b6d6da06`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a05bf2bf9728a381311a32caf93b5327291e9f1ab45f6f4925c0f01d3704bbff`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c9f828d4583c0f8acc0d8841dbca4f1109f39bc92359722cdfb4042563f22217`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e05c14b3a1c37cc626c1309d38b3164e20d316ad9af5458d5e9c6e69a1344d4a`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:569899be3c544b99dc854a3da1ab0ceec068d08774c8956d789d5033f5787d73`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:7029187f6459ace6044831aaa644ff46dfb2e3dd1bcbf032061eb62ec2adc1d6`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ed013b2f3f323edfcc09322c7332e513cb14a96c679cbcb8ff5bbf1cd59b67ec`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:f6c1c683612f28e3886bbd8473dba8adb8e13f6e9637e44a69d69e8ff3de31f1`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4b6134adb8d8da859a1f56d9f157676d9775ef16e45e1323afd61c5f6705ac58`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e14a4340ba0e3eb8ed660ba1555acef110b6392334c93aaaa22ea59d6b08a7fa`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:07c95edbd5453b1ea0ea921cfdf917fde908fac4326b874c437218622640c0c8`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ec44d01817ac7765b52192e7cf2d88f4985a5b4e5386e048e38b7020d9859af3`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:998973b51eb72381e855cafbd1bc2d75005e0961c1a868d3f41afdc6692fe783`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:37fa6825851a6e188ad6fb8bdc6e5e8745f64ebb43f428d8574ef0ec956347a2`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a3337d7a9e3b69dbebf030e8b9449cec9b29e68d19ca589a435f3c1e7318d189`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:dc71eb24b6438f469f5c730bf51f9986c7a8a1efe49d36f885f5bf9b2c926fed`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:867788941a061a0efe6e97bf01f07d0e28aa3fdd99a8d4457720297c5ed03fac`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:c76a253ff83eb473e1edba64b03b06e6e35f749d8faa107ddd361203e187bd8f`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b1aeb58f8019276814ee7656604b7007933bc021fdbfc42a70d7ac381409c97b`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:e68ed5fbce86d387a301e461eda3f2065bef375eaf0b1f8727df6f2335ea82b8`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:b95578ddecdb9ad863280c065bc21a0642523673df0c56bd143a39e2560a5da2`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:9617c3a74a32ee981bdd4c89fe4eeb00a63791c9332775b2d014ac13b5e5b94a`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6b6f698efae8ca3248224732a735677676c2d05048583bc5339e5c0e24ef7b3d`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:68d0f6938aa019c5a74cee1f3b1b50ec064c2f57cd9ebb68193f0e6c7a8ea4b5`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:ece8b11aca358d179d006cd106d2e17c1d02c9576fbfdd9d2245cdf7acccc910`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-09-13 → 2026-10-13 2026-09-13T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:6f92f4519127ac45a4485f031a0171a03a1c8f36730933654c7b0fd95bbf383b`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	36 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-31 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-31T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:a1b37e6d5d17c5c0ae272b09b7771caf2fa23401af8b587e9d2a8242bac3d50b`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	41 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	2026-08-29 → 2026-10-13 2026-08-29T16:30:00+00:00 → 2026-10-13T16:30:00+00:00	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:8c49f3364ee98a9ffa8aa8ffe30904dd2e82bd6aebae88c687c092781c5d545a`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

The day in markets.

Wednesday 14 October

Bitcoin options: wider wing premium follows a 0.55-volatility-point increase in 2W BF25

Bitcoin’s 2W BF25 butterfly rose 0.55 volatility points to 2.27 at the October 14 16:30 UTC cutoff, compared with 1.72 at the October 13 16:30 UTC baseline. The absolute 2W BF25 daily change ranked at the 97.2 percentile among 36 matching daily changes in the August 31–October 13, 2026 history window. This ranking describes the adjustment’s magnitude, rather than the current butterfly level.

Macro

[CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/14/u-s-september-cpi-comes-in-hot-sending-bitcoin-sharply-lower) associated hotter September US CPI with Bitcoin’s decline. Separately, [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/standard-chartered-launches-bitcoin-and-ether-trading-for-affluent-uae-clients) reported Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin and Ether trading launch for affluent UAE clients, with external crypto transfers barred. Its [Babylon report](https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/babylon-advances-native-bitcoin-collateral-plan-for-aave-v4) described a proposed Aave V4 arrangement retaining collateral on Bitcoin and using WBTC for permissionless liquidations; risk settings and further governance votes remain pending. These developing reports provide context without establishing a cause for the options changes; Babylon remains provisional single-source reporting.

U.S. September CPI comes in hot, sending bitcoin sharply lowerCoinDesk · 12:33 UTC

Crypto

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

46.50 vol points

Measurement 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

40.81 vol points

Measurement 14 Oct 2026, 16:28:55 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 65s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-5.69 vol points

As of 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.19 volatility points, to 34.11%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
U.S. September CPI comes in hot, sending bitcoin sharply lowerCoinDesk · 12:33 UTC
macro · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous macro context alongside ATM IV 1W: up 2.19 points to 34.11%; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: ATM IV 1W: up 2.19 points to 34.11%
02
Standard Chartered Launches Bitcoin and Ether Trading for Affluent UAE ClientsThe Defiant · 06:12 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 17OCT26: -1812.13 USD (-2.17%) to 81694.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 17OCT26: -1812.13 USD (-2.17%) to 81694.70 USD
03
Babylon Advances Native Bitcoin Collateral Plan for Aave V4The Defiant · 14:39 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 17OCT26: -1812.13 USD (-2.17%) to 81694.70 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 17OCT26: -1812.13 USD (-2.17%) to 81694.70 USD

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 34.11%, 3.12 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 30.99%; 24-hour realised volatility was 38.06% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.18%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.65 volatility points to 34.96% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.39% (+0.08 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.73 volatility points to -3.24 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.27 volatility points to 2.30 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.19 volatility points at 1W, to 34.11%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.16% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.25% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 18OCT26; removed 14OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

17OCT26, -7.78 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +2.19 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -1.18 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

2W, +0.55 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

30OCT26, -0.2787 param

Largest eligible SVI rho move

27NOV26, -0.1445 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	34.11	31.92	+2.19 vol pts	+6.86%
2W	34.62	32.63	+1.99 vol pts	+6.10%
1M	36.14	35.37	+0.77 vol pts	+2.18%
3M	37.49	37.42	+0.07 vol pts	+0.19%
6M	38.39	38.31	+0.08 vol pts	+0.21%
9M	39.03	38.93	+0.10 vol pts	+0.26%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.73 volatility points to -3.24 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-4.26	-3.08	-1.18 vol pts
2W	-4.87	-3.88	-0.99 vol pts
1M	-3.24	-2.53	-0.71 vol pts
3M	-2.17	-1.73	-0.44 vol pts
6M	-1.65	-1.34	-0.31 vol pts
9M	-1.21	-1.01	-0.20 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.

BF25 increased, averaging +0.27 volatility points to 2.30 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	1.90	1.58	+0.32 vol pts
2W	2.27	1.72	+0.55 vol pts
1M	2.36	2.09	+0.27 vol pts
3M	2.45	2.35	+0.10 vol pts
6M	2.53	2.44	+0.09 vol pts
9M	2.53	2.47	+0.06 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

1.6d

Smile rotation

16OCT26, -9.27 vol pts

0.6d

Smile rotation

15OCT26, -8.08 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
15OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	81,653.1	-1845.69 USD	34.52%	+2.42 vol pts	-0.32 vol pts	-0.08 vol pts
16OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	81,686.21	-1828.71 USD	37.19%	+4.24 vol pts	-1.98 vol pts	+0.70 vol pts
17OCT26	2.6 days	81,694.7	-1812.13 USD	35.40%	+4.07 vol pts	-2.25 vol pts	+0.77 vol pts
23OCT26	8.6 days	81,780.05	-1821.56 USD	34.43%	+2.34 vol pts	-0.91 vol pts	+0.29 vol pts
30OCT26	15.6 days	81,887.99	-1815.77 USD	34.65%	+1.83 vol pts	-0.88 vol pts	+0.56 vol pts
27NOV26	43.6 days	82,218.2	-1836.85 USD	36.63%	+0.27 vol pts	-0.72 vol pts	+0.18 vol pts
25DEC26	71.6 days	82,545.62	-1824.33 USD	37.06%	+0.04 vol pts	-0.50 vol pts	+0.12 vol pts
26MAR27	162.6 days	83,619.64	-1838.98 USD	38.17%	+0.07 vol pts	-0.36 vol pts	+0.06 vol pts
25JUN27	253.6 days	84,738.17	-1883.09 USD	38.92%	+0.09 vol pts	-0.20 vol pts	+0.08 vol pts
24SEP27	344.6 days	85,808.72	-1897.99 USD	39.31%	+0.08 vol pts	-0.23 vol pts	+0.07 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

15OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

16OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

17OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

27NOV26rotation towards puts

25DEC26rotation towards puts

26MAR27limited movement

25JUN27parallel shift higher

24SEP27parallel shift higher

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

15OCT26

16OCT26

17OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.3 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.63.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.76%, against VIX at 15.27: a 20.49-point spread and 2.34× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 19.73%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 9.49%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 4.3% of 254 prior observations.

This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.629 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.345 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.99, 15.27 and 17.96.

As of 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1; Derivasys persisted 30-calendar-day fixed-tenor ATM IV near the US close and Yahoo Finance SPX/VIX-family completed-session observations. All displayed metric observation timestamps: 2026-10-13T20:00:00Z; ingestedAt: 2026-10-13T22:30:51.625618Z; freshness evaluatedAt: 2026-10-14T16:30:00Z, fresh, ageSeconds 73800. Volatility levels and differences use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252). Alignment tolerance: 600 seconds. IV spread/ratio percentiles are null, with sampleCount 30. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 14 Oct 2026, 16:28:55 UTC; observed receipt 14 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC; ingested 14 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Measurement age 65s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-13 16:30:00 UTC → 2026-10-14 16:30:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 2W BF25 2.27 vol pts · Δ +0.55 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 97.2% by absolute move · full history (n=36); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-13

Original report summary

Bitcoin’s 2W BF25 butterfly increased 0.55 volatility points from 1.72 to 2.27 between the October 13 and October 14 16:30 UTC snapshots. The rise widened average 25-delta wing volatility relative to ATM volatility. Higher front-end implied volatility and a further shift in 1W skew toward puts accompanied the curvature adjustment.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 34.11% · Δ +2.19 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -4.26 vol pts · Δ -1.18 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 34.11% / 7D RV 30.99% · spread +3.12 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 34.11% · Δ +2.19 vol ptspercentile rank 60.9% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-13

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -4.26 vol pts · Δ -1.18 vol ptspercentile rank 78.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-13

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.90 vol pts · Δ +0.32 vol ptspercentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · full history (n=36); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-13

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 34.11% / 7D RV 30.99% · spread +3.12 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 60.9% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-13

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 78.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-13

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 83.3% by absolute move · full history (n=36); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-13

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 30OCT26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
15OCT26	+0.04240	-0.04930	-0.04000	+0.02250	-0.21310	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
16OCT26	+0.02800	-0.02290	-0.03100	+0.02470	-0.18010	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
17OCT26	+0.03290	-0.02610	-0.01210	+0.02510	-0.19310	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26	+0.05200	-0.03990	-0.11380	-0.04990	-0.23440	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26	+0.05660	-0.04320	-0.12670	-0.05530	-0.27870	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
27NOV26	+0.06840	-0.02520	-0.14450	-0.01010	-0.22180	rotation towards puts
25DEC26	+0.00460	-0.00090	+0.01410	+0.03040	-0.02350	rotation towards puts
26MAR27	+0.00120	-0.00260	+0.01700	+0.02930	-0.00350	limited movement
25JUN27	+0.01730	-0.00810	+0.01020	+0.03300	-0.04260	parallel shift higher
24SEP27	-0.04700	+0.01420	+0.05970	+0.06740	+0.07420	parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma15OCT26, 0.000336 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay15OCT26, -366.18488 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001903 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 326.633385 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.303099 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	30.99%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 14 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 14 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

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The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

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