Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options: 16oct26 smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points

Name: BTC options surface changes for 2026-10-13
Creator: Derivasys
License: https://www.derivasys.com/research-artifact-license/v1

Bitcoin's 16OCT26 smile rotation fell 5.00 volatility points between the October 12 and October 13 cutoffs at 16:30 UTC, according to Derivasys data. This expiry-specific shape change exceeded the fixed-tenor ATM IV adjustments, led by a 0.68-point fall at 2W. Matching rotation history and its current level are unavailable, so the observation establishes neither historical rarity nor call-versus-put direction.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published 13 Oct 2026, 16:31 UTC · Snapshot 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

Snapshot · 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

BTCSpot-index 24h +0.83%1W ATM IV 31.92%1W RR25 -3.08 vol pts1W BF25 +1.58 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +1.89 vol pts

BTC1W ATM IV 31.92%Spot-index 24h +0.83%

Full snapshot readings

BTCSpot-index 24h +0.83%1W ATM IV 31.92%1W RR25 -3.08 vol pts1W BF25 +1.58 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +1.89 vol pts

Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (BTC); RR25 moved toward puts (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC); 1W IV was above 7D RV (BTC).

Measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 938d65377d6213cda553a6a9454ead64197e699762ce977bb802aff04fe580d2.

Edition revised: Historical percentiles recomputed with native clock and horizon eligibility Download the previous canonical edition (JSON). Current revision: sha256:938d65377d6213cda553a6a9454ead64197e699762ce977bb802aff04fe580d2; correction receipt SHA-256: adb13412b6ca38790a5d5961c206a4f00141b9b72cfc1b5a6cf90b19741c303d.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metric	Cohort	Count / horizon	Actual bounds	Overlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1W rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 2W rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1M rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 3M rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 6M rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 9M rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y atmIv	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y bf25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	move30d	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	moveFullHistory	0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`
BTC 1Y rr25	levelFullHistory	0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations	Unavailable → Unavailable Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable	No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; `sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945`

The day in markets.

Tuesday 13 October

Bitcoin options: 16oct26 smile rotation falls 5.00 volatility points

Bitcoin's 16OCT26 smile rotation declined 5.00 volatility points relative to the October 12, 16:30 UTC snapshot. The statistic measures an adjustment in the expiry's volatility-smile shape, with no matching history available to assess rarity. Bitcoin's spot-index return was +0.83% over the matching 24 hours.

Macro

No additional qualifying evidence was identified.

UK court ruling boosts government’s chances of keeping $5 billion in seized bitcoinCoinDesk · 09:25 UTC

Crypto

In provisional single-source reporting, [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/news/strive-bitcoin-holdings-32773-btc-warrant-exercises) says Strive expanded its Bitcoin treasury through equity financing, while [The Defiant](https://thedefiant.io/converge/tradfi-and-fintech/metaplanet-plans-52-billion-bond-sale-to-refinance-bitcoin-loans) reports Metaplanet's proposed bond sale to refinance Bitcoin loans. [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/13/u-k-court-ruling-boosts-government-s-chances-of-keeping-gbp3-8-billion-seized-bitcoin) reports a High Court ruling affecting claims to seized Bitcoin. These developments supply corporate and legal context, with no established causal link to the measured options changes.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

42.71 vol points

Measurement 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

39.31 vol points

Measurement 13 Oct 2026, 16:28:34 UTC

Stale · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible

Comparison suppressed — BVIV: Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible

As of 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -0.68 volatility points, to 32.63%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

Selected events

01
UK court ruling boosts government’s chances of keeping $5 billion in seized bitcoinCoinDesk · 09:25 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: +709.16 USD (+0.86%) to 83514.92 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 16OCT26: +709.16 USD (+0.86%) to 83514.92 USD
02
Metaplanet Plans ¥52 Billion Bond Sale to Refinance Bitcoin LoansThe Defiant · 10:06 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: +709.16 USD (+0.86%) to 83514.92 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 16OCT26: +709.16 USD (+0.86%) to 83514.92 USD
03
Strive reports $208M in warrant exercises as Bitcoin holdings jump 11%Cointelegraph · 15:57 UTC
broader crypto · neutral · low confidence
Selection methodology
Events are selected using relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Retained as contemporaneous price context alongside Forward 16OCT26: +709.16 USD (+0.86%) to 83514.92 USD; the surface data does not establish a causal relationship.
Matched signals: Forward 16OCT26: +709.16 USD (+0.86%) to 83514.92 USD

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.92%, 1.89 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 30.03%; 24-hour realised volatility was 37.51% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.06%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.43 volatility points to 33.31% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.31% (+0.12 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to -2.51 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 2.04 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.68 volatility points at 2W, to 32.63%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.83% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.63% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 17OCT26; removed 13OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

Largest eligible smile rotation

16OCT26, -5.00 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, -0.68 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, -0.40 vol pts

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, +0.17 vol pts

Largest eligible SVI rho move

16OCT26, -0.1282 param

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

23OCT26, +0.1270 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

Tenor	Current (vol %)	Comparison snapshot (vol %)	Change (vol pts)	Relative change
1W	31.92	32.23	-0.31 vol pts	-0.96%
2W	32.63	33.31	-0.68 vol pts	-2.04%
1M	35.37	35.68	-0.31 vol pts	-0.87%
3M	37.42	37.34	+0.08 vol pts	+0.21%
6M	38.31	38.19	+0.12 vol pts	+0.31%
9M	38.93	38.70	+0.23 vol pts	+0.59%
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to -2.51 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	-3.08	-2.77	-0.31 vol pts
2W	-3.88	-3.48	-0.40 vol pts
1M	-2.53	-2.68	+0.15 vol pts
3M	-1.73	-1.75	+0.02 vol pts
6M	-1.34	-1.44	+0.10 vol pts
9M	-1.01	-1.26	+0.25 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.10 volatility points to 2.04 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

Tenor	Current (vol pts)	Comparison snapshot (vol pts)	Change (vol pts)
1W	1.58	1.57	+0.01 vol pts
2W	1.72	1.64	+0.08 vol pts
1M	2.09	1.92	+0.17 vol pts
3M	2.35	2.25	+0.10 vol pts
6M	2.44	2.32	+0.12 vol pts
9M	2.47	2.40	+0.07 vol pts
1Y	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

14OCT26, -13.29 vol pts

1.6d

Smile rotation

15OCT26, -8.33 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

Expiry	Time left	Forward now (USD)	Forward change (USD)	ATM IV now	ATM IV change	RR25 change	BF25 change
14OCT26Expiry effect	0.6 days	83,470.47	+717.33 USD	25.57%	-1.04 vol pts	-2.31 vol pts	+0.15 vol pts
15OCT26Expiry effect	1.6 days	83,498.79	+713.15 USD	32.10%	+1.72 vol pts	-1.44 vol pts	-0.04 vol pts
16OCT26	2.6 days	83,514.92	+709.16 USD	32.95%	+1.33 vol pts	-0.81 vol pts	+0.19 vol pts
23OCT26	9.6 days	83,601.61	+699.98 USD	32.09%	-0.37 vol pts	-0.47 vol pts	-0.03 vol pts
30OCT26	16.6 days	83,703.76	+709.50 USD	32.82%	-1.04 vol pts	-0.16 vol pts	+0.12 vol pts
27NOV26	44.6 days	84,055.05	+695.00 USD	36.36%	-0.18 vol pts	+0.16 vol pts	+0.16 vol pts
25DEC26	72.6 days	84,369.95	+662.38 USD	37.02%	+0.06 vol pts	0.00 vol pts	+0.08 vol pts
26MAR27	163.6 days	85,458.62	+661.65 USD	38.10%	+0.05 vol pts	+0.04 vol pts	+0.16 vol pts
25JUN27	254.6 days	86,621.26	+684.13 USD	38.83%	+0.25 vol pts	+0.27 vol pts	+0.07 vol pts
24SEP27	345.6 days	87,706.71	+652.30 USD	39.23%	+0.15 vol pts	+0.20 vol pts	+0.08 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

14OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

15OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

16OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening

27NOV26limited movement

25DEC26parallel shift higher

26MAR27parallel shift higher

25JUN27parallel shift higher

24SEP27parallel shift higher

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

14OCT26

15OCT26

16OCT26

23OCT26

30OCT26

27NOV26

25DEC26

26MAR27

25JUN27

24SEP27

-0.30kATM+0.30k

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.3 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.61.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.46%, against VIX at 15.21: a 20.25-point spread and 2.33× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 21.12%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 9.71%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 5.9% of 253 prior observations.

This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.609 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.340 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.68, 15.21 and 17.93.

As of 12 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1; persisted Derivasys REST API through market_context MCP. Crypto IV: 30 calendar-day fixed tenor near US close, volatility_points, ACT/365. VIX-family: completed US cash-session closes, volatility_points, Yahoo Finance sources ^VIX/^VIX9D/^VIX3M. Crypto RV: 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns, sqrt(365); SPX RV: 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns, sqrt(252), ^GSPC. RV spreads and ratios preserve these different annualisation clocks. Correlations use 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only. Alignment tolerance 600 seconds; cross-asset ingestion 2026-10-12T22:30:56.287428Z; quality valid.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 13 Oct 2026, 16:28:34 UTC; observed receipt 13 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC; ingested 13 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC. Freshness: Stale, evaluated 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot: 2026-10-12 16:30:00 UTC → 2026-10-13 16:30:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Original report summary

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.92% · Δ -0.31 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.08 vol pts · Δ -0.31 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.92% / 7D RV 30.03% · spread +1.89 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 31.92% · Δ -0.31 vol pts

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -3.08 vol pts · Δ -0.31 vol pts

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.58 vol pts · Δ +0.01 vol pts

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 31.92% / 7D RV 30.03% · spread +1.89 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 16OCT26; the largest sigma change occurred at 23OCT26.

Expiry	Δ a	Δ b	Δ rho	Δ m	Δ sigma	Smile classification
14OCT26	-0.02740	+0.02700	-0.04130	-0.04240	+0.11390	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
15OCT26	-0.01450	+0.00940	-0.09180	-0.06110	+0.09300	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
16OCT26	+0.00100	+0.00580	-0.12820	-0.06790	-0.02960	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26	-0.03110	+0.02240	+0.00570	+0.00850	+0.12700	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26	-0.02410	+0.02450	+0.02780	+0.01260	+0.06250	rotation towards puts, wing steepening
27NOV26	-0.03030	+0.01660	+0.08280	+0.04440	+0.06180	limited movement
25DEC26	+0.01190	-0.00050	-0.02290	-0.00920	-0.04540	parallel shift higher
26MAR27	+0.03190	-0.01820	+0.02250	+0.05140	-0.08350	parallel shift higher
25JUN27	+0.04980	-0.01490	-0.04280	-0.02630	-0.10970	parallel shift higher
24SEP27	+0.02480	+0.01400	-0.11240	-0.13430	-0.08490	parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma14OCT26, 0.000444 1 / USD

Highest Theta Decay14OCT26, -277.22477 USD / day

Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001906 delta / vol pt

Highest Vega24SEP27, 334.349443 USD / vol pt

Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.310526 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
BTC	30.03%	Available	100% / 97% required	0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 13 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot: 13 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Comparison snapshot: 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Source: Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility: Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window: Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention: 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention: Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors: Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction: Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries: Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization: Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy: Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Live dashboard All reports Daily metrics data Latest BTC daily Latest weekly API Volatility surface guide What is SVI? Risk reversals Butterflies Local volatility Variance swaps

The day in markets.

Macro

Crypto

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

What the volatility surface did.

Relevant market events

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Largest surface events

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

RR25 skew moved most at 2W.

BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Surface movement heatmap

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Get reports by email