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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options: 2w RR25 falls 2.94 volatility points toward puts

BTC 2W RR25 fell 2.94 vol points to -3.23 vol points over the weekly comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Window 3 Oct 2026–10 Oct 2026

Snapshot · 10 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 7D -2.25%1W ATM IV 30.30%1W RR25 -2.99 vol pts1W BF25 +1.71 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +0.57 vol pts
  • BTC1W ATM IV 30.30%2W RR25 Δ -2.94 vol pts
Full snapshot readings
  • BTCSpot-index 7D -2.25%1W ATM IV 30.30%1W RR25 -2.99 vol pts1W BF25 +1.71 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +0.57 vol pts

Notable weekly move: BTC 2W RR25 Δ -2.94 vol pts → -3.23 vol pts · percentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); 7-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-09; rolling periods overlap.

Spot-index returns use validated exact seven-day endpoints for all assets. Surface changes use the stored weekly endpoints.

2W RR25 – selected tenor
Vol points

2W RR25 – selected tenor. Vol points. BTC: Current -3.23, Previous -0.29.CurrentPreviousBTC-3.23-0.29-3.49-1.740.00

Current: 10 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC
Previous: 3 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC

Bitcoin options: 2w RR25 falls 2.94 volatility points toward puts. RR25 term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. RR25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
RR25, vol points · 2026-10-10T17:02:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W-2.99-0.58
2W-3.23-0.29
1M-2.66-1.28
3M-1.61-0.90
6M-1.30-0.55
9M-0.99-0.20
1YUnavailableUnavailable

Measurement and history provenance

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:8e4e17a6c216f6d48ba7f94e01b2a48d8c81ca0e6031ae26ab2552ec7f9e3db3
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:155d09ced3f3071b19d93e8dd6329a23f60f6a4d4cb9379e33063bda864870db
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:be918832acd6a64ab4daf4969aaee948647c1bbeab01c9867f79e2300e4aafb5
BTC 1W rr25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:bd5af578da2af6bce2208701f9c9c5166c6f30fc01c9194651c47e04d216bfb0
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:5df79064fbb02f9423375543fa888fd4497467394acf3e5c16ed1ccb6d8f005b
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e535c82a8fd985ccfba8675fedec3b0efcbea2581f912b9d3de1a865afb143d7
BTC 1W bf25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:80f1ada763da060a247cb7e9f2326f4d58f68a3a2cdea38a09c6c8d61991db34
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:be97a4a1bd5d6de952f09d0939a2f4fff644895a0ea9abc21e2bd12b1b87744e
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b8d24a068e48da1acb038360e29cbfecfe35b5dba8b3052975e549a40a395c2f
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:d204add79f24babdd136402342fabe5ce27c54b8eea4ec07b9f6bb7eed26a9be
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:e35eba10c2e15c48b53aeb6ebcf841693422cede6b6d2f9e6dddb4926cdc1410
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0ee1390899c435a511c91278878405096dfaa7ee0176630964e2d1d95d47c7e9
BTC 2W rr25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:ddeda4496f84f3d1c4fd742ec070692eea4add90247de1fb2001cc9b77cd5161
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:2dadaac3081e184c6b65d189608f2118f434d39f369977b113269d29fed8f44f
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3a1bfabc3f4a39f8495124d035a2afa947d183ce6eb0a77d00c2e99b6d2aaec0
BTC 2W bf25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:925b4eda666bd7fba5619fe40c743d560b5b6358243449ccda76b2440e64e523
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:93eaab65706b15fd70c95e774136a7e2e5ad115b679748108e0d00f26626f9c6
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e38295bbdf32e74bd1859b830248306b229cd0789748edce0dccfccee9b7504d
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:3f1b54b155e99e05c9a57bd8b4375555fcf61590d05f08fcc0a3a4dd8dc2129a
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:5b9f375202ff22b348fce299e2e7d8deb38c8c3102ccb1441538be3b50a122a7
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:7de8916b3a57eec6ba8dd895c192c8575e57edbe16ddc610c1beaa8621b46c70
BTC 1M rr25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:0cfe0ca0b3918698bcb1247119994a58133129d3551de9462f396b13323065a7
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:36f863db004dedc237f7d54df86863845ec476f1f390a5d16dcc40f3fef30d28
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:35e7ab369445db2a72ae566d15a62075f2243e311a0c752f2659fe43ea073c90
BTC 1M bf25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:c4374bb9d4901628488a982bd6f7ce9fde02a47f2cc7bbd716efe5697a1bba9e
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:5cd5beb1e34d73b2a8766f17ade793220abe6c7f25de5da87e290fddbaaf5c12
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:41a18905abbecfe7ef4fe874598c1ca114a89fc7be7b846babda1364fa4d8b4d
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:b66ef0d8461585ee1213a20427f84d4610cda0d8ed008f87c22203c31abd7afd
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:e6f99bc352a95413657d928709fcd88455185730cea8aadec1c72d04f833efbb
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e8b9895bf3cd0a6b29145be16b7d01478155bf8bfd56ec3e8dc8f036040acc3c
BTC 3M rr25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:db4fc82da66b235a6e5ac00b6c2412ab7dff4dfddd9d1b4ffa069cf26c46cf5e
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:f5829cba824beb395350d113131d53426ad6618b93292ed8257f66482503040a
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5e94b86aa089bfa923ed3aed266fcb1c87a05ef0f1ae5b7077c4736f40b98d49
BTC 3M bf25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:c115e23a3f52d8d0c10983e7200840362625f2eb411d385f22f49cdbc9eb2b8e
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:eafa4ce7673c91ed7889fbcdd85e2e9fe77b9eb1697a3aa59047206135ff99c5
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c094b4c9a6b98b1752f1139083196acfaae10127c9ebf0d074dee450b0de7aa5
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:db898449c72e583e129589ecb5dcdac9f539c8b2a4918790ba85b49cbe8bec12
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:ca995b4f40aee97f53ccd343e1fa940ef3eb532f43472660fd9289c3ecd9fa49
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a26ba43e01e6578e707d8936fb4335f5b07c7ee4c5409d8f5ca80244f79bc1ec
BTC 6M rr25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:57070d3732404b2863a9f86bba468efb585695b5dd9b0774c169735d05541a06
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:6e6e4b4531c08f6bdcd6a2a34680b5f169c5f8eaf2c370f0229a92b03240a219
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4be055e5be56d662bf586c7c7781cda0754d4469a15be63969b4aa5a9eb18fd6
BTC 6M bf25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:ce1b1fa5c169d1cc55ef8682dfb19969ce4ae4585fe680d909cb227ae3bbd078
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:7e7f92adbad1b94a19b1749abe287aa42496479e36b7760e488de41922097754
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:571eb154c06711062a6b579bd3291a37fc1daa005c4db654db72b0e0be4a9996
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:31879fa048147516a35c9035ba6f114882ae6109b2ec136edc27cd975a020778
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:a29eaba264d08f21057ad4f3079724de42f8bd47bb0a03859399e91ac9d20ef7
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2652b14b4a2732bae80c3a127c21523190514481962828ff39ab3d6359004b37
BTC 9M rr25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:04b43e2c3281fe1dd2fc19ef11a6e0ff344c64b7cd1c07f48558d8ddc6271cbe
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:8d979094cde4e08f3985afb921d0c620c92c4d5d2149c181b35a3d49eb2639a1
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bdc89012f10b434dbbc74c39f575fd84c968c4fae1f8759e1daf427dbc8d04b1
BTC 9M bf25move30d30 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-03 → 2026-10-09
2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:771735c7795675ad9953e90e95cd7df22cc6188c902585702233647ed7c067c2
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory162 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		Rolling periods overlap; source revision unknown; sha256:f7a9d313a6a9f9b22af838cf2a2138334986bc6a1543f943207bc0fe04574c7e
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory169 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-04-24 → 2026-10-09
2026-04-24T23:59:00+00:00 → 2026-10-09T23:59:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8a4973ee5d909b370ff23c3c7078864d34459041d110876f0e7a65b85d0b2688
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 7 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
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01 · Week in review

Macro · Crypto · Options

The week in markets.

These dated entries organise news across the calendar week. Related daily report links do not identify the stored reports reused in the weekly analysis; those inputs are listed separately.

Saturday 3 October to Sunday 4 October: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.

Tuesday 6 October: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.

Thursday 8 October: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.

Saturday 10 October: no selected macro or crypto events were retained.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

41.55 vol points

Measurement 10 Oct 2026, 17:02:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

38.66 vol points

Measurement 10 Oct 2026, 17:00:57 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 63s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-2.89 vol points

As of 10 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 10 Oct 2026, 17:02:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 10 Oct 2026, 17:02:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 10 Oct 2026, 17:00:57 UTC; observed receipt 10 Oct 2026, 17:01:00 UTC; ingested 10 Oct 2026, 17:01:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 10 Oct 2026, 17:02:00 UTC. Measurement age 63s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1M at +1.51 volatility points, to 34.98%.

RV observation windows

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

03 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC to 10 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 17:02 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 30.30%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 29.73%; 24-hour realised volatility was 14.51% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.32%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.16 volatility points to 32.45% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.00% (+0.50 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.64 volatility points to -2.36 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points to 1.97 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.51 volatility points at 1M, to 34.98%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.35% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.25% over seven days.

Weekly universe roll: added 11OCT26, 12OCT26, 13OCT26, 14OCT26; removed 4OCT26, 5OCT26, 6OCT26, 7OCT26, 9OCT26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

16OCT26, -9.53 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, -2.94 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1M, +1.51 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1M, -0.18 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

16OCT26, -0.1642 param
06

Largest eligible SVI rho move

24SEP27, -0.1127 param

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W30.3029.55+0.75 vol pts+2.54%
2W32.0630.85+1.21 vol pts+3.92%
1M34.9833.47+1.51 vol pts+4.51%
3M37.0536.52+0.53 vol pts+1.45%
6M38.0037.50+0.50 vol pts+1.33%
9M38.5438.40+0.14 vol pts+0.36%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 10-03 to 10-04

1W, +3.96 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 10-08 to 10-09

1W, -3.29 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 10-03 to 10-04

2W, +2.40 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 10-08 to 10-09

2W, -2.27 vol pts
05

ATM IV · 10-04 to 10-05

1W, -2.14 vol pts
06

RR25 · 10-07 to 10-08

2W, -1.99 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W30.04%34.00%3.96 vol pts3.86 vol pts0.15 vol pts
2W31.48%33.94%2.46 vol pts4.06 vol pts0.34 vol pts
1M33.65%35.66%2.01 vol pts2.32 vol pts0.36 vol pts
3M36.59%37.31%0.72 vol pts0.80 vol pts0.21 vol pts
6M37.36%38.00%0.64 vol pts0.86 vol pts0.15 vol pts
9M38.26%38.54%0.28 vol pts0.80 vol pts0.16 vol pts
1Y38.77%39.03%0.26 vol pts0.47 vol pts0.11 vol pts

Daily report trail

The stored reports behind the weekly path.

8 stored daily report inputs; 8 separate surface observations. Calendar news-diary entries do not establish which daily reports were reused.

Daily reports qualify by their snapshot time inside the comparison window. A report published earlier on the first date can fall outside that window.

DateStored daily report inputLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
Bitcoin options: 2W ATM volatility falls2W: -0.84 vol pts to 30.68%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin options: 1W ATM volatility rises 2.87 points, outpacing longer tenors1W: +2.87 vol pts to 31.90%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options: 2W RR25 drops through zero toward puts1M: +0.42 vol pts to 34.41%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options: 1W ATM implied volatility falls 0.77 points1W: -0.77 vol pts to 31.64%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options: 24-hour spot return of -2.56% accompanies modest IV changes1M: +0.36 vol pts to 34.99%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options: 1W RR25 falls 3.14 points toward puts1W: +4.93 vol pts to 36.73%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin options: 1W ATM IV falls 5.34 volatility points1W: -5.34 vol pts to 31.11%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV falls 0.87 volatility points1W: -0.87 vol pts to 30.30%No sufficiently relevant context identified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.64 volatility points to -2.36 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W-2.99-0.58-2.41 vol pts
2W-3.23-0.29-2.94 vol pts
1M-2.66-1.28-1.38 vol pts
3M-1.61-0.90-0.71 vol pts
6M-1.30-0.55-0.75 vol pts
9M-0.99-0.20-0.79 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points to 1.97 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 1M.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.711.58+0.13 vol pts
2W1.691.71-0.02 vol pts
1M1.902.08-0.18 vol pts
3M2.232.14+0.09 vol pts
6M2.342.29+0.05 vol pts
9M2.392.32+0.07 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
16OCT265.6 days83,024.29-1951.37 USD29.56%-0.95 vol pts-2.79 vol pts+0.07 vol pts
23OCT2612.6 days83,098.5-1960.34 USD31.59%-0.14 vol pts-2.46 vol pts-0.10 vol pts
30OCT2619.6 days83,215.86-1933.27 USD33.25%+0.33 vol pts-2.22 vol pts-0.42 vol pts
27NOV2647.6 days83,549.78-1936.81 USD36.14%+0.79 vol pts-1.24 vol pts-0.04 vol pts
25DEC2675.6 days83,852.29-1976.99 USD36.68%+0.34 vol pts-0.76 vol pts+0.08 vol pts
26MAR27166.6 days84,933.08-1985.25 USD37.87%+0.50 vol pts-0.76 vol pts+0.02 vol pts
25JUN27257.6 days86,102.99-2003.69 USD38.42%+0.07 vol pts-0.89 vol pts+0.09 vol pts
24SEP27348.6 days87,229.04-2020.94 USD38.96%+0.18 vol pts-0.53 vol pts+0.07 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

16OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Lead signal · 10 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 2W RR25 -3.23 vol pts · Δ -2.94 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 96.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30); 7-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-09; rolling periods overlap

Original report summary

Bitcoin's 2W RR25 fell 2.94 volatility points to -3.23 volatility points over the seven-day comparison from October 3 to October 10. The larger put premium was concentrated at shorter tenors, while ATM implied volatility increased across supported maturities. Reports on investment access and wrapped-Bitcoin borrowing supplied separate context.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-03 17:02:00 UTC → 2026-10-10 17:02:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
16OCT26+0.04090-0.03330-0.03560+0.00650-0.16420rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26+0.01240-0.01700+0.08990+0.08340-0.02550rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26-0.00340-0.01700+0.08980+0.09470+0.08020rotation towards puts
27NOV26-0.02000+0.01330-0.05190-0.04770+0.05560rotation towards puts
25DEC26-0.02780+0.01500+0.01900+0.01590+0.05450rotation towards puts
26MAR27-0.05820+0.03680-0.04800-0.05800+0.09870rotation towards puts
25JUN27-0.07680+0.04280-0.01290-0.00790+0.11480rotation towards puts
24SEP27-0.04220+0.03690-0.11270-0.12220+0.02620parallel shift higher

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC29.73%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 17:02:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
10 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
03 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
8 stored daily report inputs, dated 3 October 2026, 4 October 2026, 5 October 2026, 6 October 2026, 7 October 2026, 8 October 2026, 9 October 2026, 10 October 2026. Surface observations and calendar news-diary entries are separate.
Original stored input methodology

The weekly edition reuses 8 stored daily reports from 2026-10-03 through 2026-10-10; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail. Daily report trail coverage is complete. Published historical inputs are SHA-256 verified and pinned with their manifest; offline replay reuses those exact bytes. Daily surface observations are separate from stored daily reports.

Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface and realised-volatility changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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