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Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls 3.14 points toward puts

BTC 1W RR25 fell 3.14 vol points to -3.64 vol points over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Snapshot

Snapshot · 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h -2.83%1W ATM IV 36.73%1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts1W BF25 +2.06 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +5.29 vol pts
  • BTC1W ATM IV 36.73%1W RR25 Δ -3.14 vol pts
Full snapshot readings
  • BTCSpot-index 24h -2.83%1W ATM IV 36.73%1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts1W BF25 +2.06 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +5.29 vol pts

Notable move: BTC 1W RR25 Δ -3.14 vol pts → -3.64 vol pts · percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30).

1W RR25 – selected tenor
Vol points

1W RR25 – selected tenor. Vol points. BTC: Current -3.64, Previous -0.50.CurrentPreviousBTC-3.64-0.50-3.93-1.970.00

Current: 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
Previous: 7 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC

Bitcoin options: 1w RR25 falls 3.14 points toward puts. RR25 term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. RR25; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
RR25, vol points · 2026-10-08T16:32:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W-3.64-0.50
2W-3.81-0.77
1M-2.70-0.69
3M-0.91-0.67
6M-0.75-0.67
9M-0.57-0.56
1YUnavailableUnavailable
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Bitcoin options: 1W RR25 falls 3.14 points toward puts

Bitcoin 1W RR25 declined from -0.50 to -3.64 volatility points between the October 7 and October 8 snapshots at 16:32 UTC. Its absolute daily change ranked at the 100th percentile among 30 matching observations in the supplied prior-30-day history; exact historical endpoints are unavailable. RR25 measures 25-delta call IV minus put IV, so the decline establishes a relative put-side shift rather than an absolute increase in put volatility.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

[Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etfs-outflow-largest-june-october) reported daily US Bitcoin ETF outflows. Separately, [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/08/u-s-government-moves-usd1-billion-in-bitcoin-from-bitfinex-hack-wallet-no-sale-indicated) reported a government Bitcoin transfer tied to the Bitfinex hack, with no sign of sale. Another [CoinDesk report](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/08/bitcoin-loans-are-paying-for-tuition-and-working-capital-not-just-trades-lenders-say) attributed tuition and working-capital uses of Bitcoin-backed loans to lenders. Each remains a provisional single-source account at the cutoff; none establishes an explanation for the measured options adjustment.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

44.16 vol points

Measurement 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

41.11 vol points

Measurement 08 Oct 2026, 16:30:34 UTC

Stale · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum unknown (not recorded) · source availability: crossed_book · specific rejection reason not recorded · comparison eligibility not recorded

Comparison suppressed — BVIV: Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum unknown (not recorded) · source availability: crossed_book · specific rejection reason not recorded · comparison eligibility not recorded

As of 08 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum unknown (not recorded) · comparison eligibility not recorded. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 08 Oct 2026, 16:30:34 UTC; observed receipt 08 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC; ingested 08 Oct 2026, 16:31:00 UTC. Freshness: Stale, evaluated 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC. Measurement age 86s · report-cutoff maximum unknown (not recorded) · source availability: crossed_book · specific rejection reason not recorded · comparison eligibility not recorded. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +4.93 volatility points, to 36.73%.

RV observation windows

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

07 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC to 08 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:32 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 36.73%, 5.29 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.44%; 24-hour realised volatility was 38.95% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.84%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +3.35 volatility points to 36.51% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.12% (+0.70 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.70 volatility points to -2.36 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 increased, averaging +0.22 volatility points to 2.21 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +4.93 volatility points at 1W, to 36.73%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.83% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -3.77% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 12OCT26; removed 8OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

11OCT26, -14.39 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, +4.93 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -3.14 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, +0.48 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

30OCT26, +0.2115 param
06

Largest eligible SVI rho move

30OCT26, -0.1370 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W36.7331.80+4.93 vol pts+15.50%
2W36.0232.69+3.33 vol pts+10.19%
1M36.7934.99+1.80 vol pts+5.14%
3M37.8536.84+1.01 vol pts+2.74%
6M38.1237.42+0.70 vol pts+1.87%
9M38.6738.22+0.45 vol pts+1.18%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.70 volatility points to -2.36 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-4.2 vol pts-3.2 vol pts-2.2 vol pts-1.1 vol pts-0.1 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-3.64-0.50-3.14 vol pts
2W-3.81-0.77-3.04 vol pts
1M-2.70-0.69-2.01 vol pts
3M-0.91-0.67-0.24 vol pts
6M-0.75-0.67-0.08 vol pts
9M-0.57-0.56-0.01 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 increased, averaging +0.22 volatility points to 2.21 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

1.4 vol pts1.7 vol pts2.0 vol pts2.3 vol pts2.7 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W2.061.58+0.48 vol pts
2W1.991.83+0.16 vol pts
1M2.202.03+0.17 vol pts
3M2.352.19+0.16 vol pts
6M2.472.33+0.14 vol pts
9M2.412.34+0.07 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

9OCT26, -15.86 vol pts
1.6d

Smile rotation

10OCT26, -11.56 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

31.0%33.1%35.2%37.4%39.5%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
9OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days81,089.84-2482.25 USD43.60%+11.85 vol pts-2.73 vol pts+0.11 vol pts
10OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days81,142-2426.45 USD40.73%+9.67 vol pts-2.69 vol pts+0.59 vol pts
11OCT262.6 days81,155.83-2447.88 USD35.70%+7.44 vol pts-3.49 vol pts+0.39 vol pts
16OCT267.6 days81,232.95-2442.13 USD36.90%+4.42 vol pts-3.11 vol pts+0.45 vol pts
23OCT2614.6 days81,336.46-2405.21 USD35.97%+3.25 vol pts-3.01 vol pts+0.13 vol pts
30OCT2621.6 days81,453.66-2395.32 USD36.05%+2.10 vol pts-3.24 vol pts+0.08 vol pts
27NOV2649.6 days81,754.3-2426.36 USD37.54%+1.28 vol pts-0.82 vol pts+0.22 vol pts
25DEC2677.6 days82,085.54-2419.14 USD37.80%+1.10 vol pts-0.31 vol pts+0.15 vol pts
26MAR27168.6 days83,128.83-2429.26 USD38.00%+0.75 vol pts-0.09 vol pts+0.15 vol pts
25JUN27259.6 days84,277.62-2421.34 USD38.57%+0.45 vol pts-0.04 vol pts+0.08 vol pts
24SEP27350.6 days85,391.43-2418.66 USD39.09%+0.42 vol pts+0.07 vol pts+0.01 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

9OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
10OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
11OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
16OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
23OCT26rotation towards puts · wing flattening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing flattening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift higher
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.3 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.61.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 34.82%, against VIX at 15.08: a 19.74-point spread and 2.31× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 41.35%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 10.24%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 62.0% of 250 prior observations.

This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.612 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.338 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.78, 15.08 and 17.72.

As of 07 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

Derivasys persisted market_context_latest schemaVersion=1. Crypto ATM IV: 30 calendar-day fixed tenor nearest the US close, ACT/365 implied-volatility convention, source Derivasys 30-day fixed-tenor surface. VIX-family levels: completed US cash-session close, sources ^VIX/^VIX9D/^VIX3M. IV spread=crypto ATM IV minus VIX in volatility_points; IV ratio=crypto ATM IV divided by VIX. Crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365), source Derivasys canonical crypto index; SPX RV uses 20 US trading-session close-to-close log returns and sqrt(252), source ^GSPC. RV spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient over 30/60 aligned US-session daily returns. Percentiles use prior valid persisted observations only, units percentile_rank. Alignment tolerance=600 seconds. The report's corrected one-minute realised-volatility windows use observed one-minute returns; these cross-asset measurements use completed-session daily closes. Returned freshness is fresh, ageSeconds=73920, evaluatedAt=2026-10-08T16:32:00Z; preserved as returned.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-07 16:32:00 UTC → 2026-10-08 16:32:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 8 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts · Δ -3.14 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Original report summary

Bitcoin 1W RR25 shifted 3.14 volatility points toward puts since the prior daily cutoff, reaching -3.64 points. The call-minus-put volatility gap became more negative as short-dated ATM implied volatility also increased. Bitcoin ETF outflows and government wallet movements provide reporting context, without an established causal link to the skew change.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 36.73% · Δ +4.93 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts · Δ -3.14 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 36.73% / 7D RV 31.44% · spread +5.29 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 36.73% · Δ +4.93 vol ptspercentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -3.64 vol pts · Δ -3.14 vol ptspercentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 2.06 vol pts · Δ +0.48 vol ptspercentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 36.73% / 7D RV 31.44% · spread +5.29 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 100.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 86.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 30OCT26; the largest sigma change occurred at 30OCT26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
9OCT26+0.00190-0.01310-0.11740-0.04940+0.04900rotation towards puts, wing steepening
10OCT26+0.00370-0.00230-0.08200-0.02900-0.01870rotation towards puts, wing steepening
11OCT26-0.00450+0.00360-0.11980-0.05100+0.03060rotation towards puts, wing steepening
16OCT26-0.04750+0.04310-0.09950-0.04470+0.13530rotation towards puts, wing steepening
23OCT26-0.05440+0.03760-0.09060-0.02830+0.20330rotation towards puts, wing flattening
30OCT26-0.05930+0.04210-0.13700-0.05090+0.21150rotation towards puts, wing flattening
27NOV26-0.02910+0.02150+0.02560+0.01640+0.05900rotation towards puts
25DEC26-0.00500+0.01240-0.02810-0.01850-0.00380parallel shift higher
26MAR27+0.05720-0.02370-0.02930+0.01750-0.12870parallel shift higher
25JUN27+0.05530-0.02180-0.01850+0.01050-0.10950parallel shift higher
24SEP27+0.04700-0.01650-0.02590-0.02190-0.07480parallel shift higher

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Vega24SEP27, 327.825418 USD / vol pt
Highest Gamma9OCT26, 0.000268 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay9OCT26, -459.71861 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.00192 delta / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.307767 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC31.44%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 08 Oct 2026, 16:32:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
08 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
Comparison snapshot
07 Oct 2026, 16:32 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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