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Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options: 1w ATM IV falls 5.34 volatility points

BTC 1W ATM IV fell 5.34 vol points to 31.11% over the daily comparison.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Snapshot

Snapshot · 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +2.30%1W ATM IV 31.11%1W RR25 -1.96 vol pts1W BF25 +1.66 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +0.87 vol pts
  • BTC1W ATM IV 31.11%1W IV Δ -5.34 vol pts
Full snapshot readings
  • BTCSpot-index 24h +2.30%1W ATM IV 31.11%1W RR25 -1.96 vol pts1W BF25 +1.66 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +0.87 vol pts

Notable move: BTC 1W ATM IV Δ -5.34 vol pts → 31.11% · percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30).

1W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

1W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. BTC: Current 31.11, Previous 36.45.CurrentPreviousBTC31.1136.450.0019.6839.37

Current: 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Previous: 8 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC

Bitcoin options: 1w ATM IV falls 5.34 volatility points. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W31.1136.45
2W31.8435.77
1M34.7736.68
3M37.2737.72
6M38.0238.04
9M38.5838.57
1YUnavailableUnavailable
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms

01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Bitcoin options: 1W ATM IV falls 5.34 volatility points

Bitcoin 1W ATM IV fell 5.34 volatility points to 31.11% at October 9 16:56 UTC, compared with Bitcoin 1W ATM IV of 36.45% at the October 8 16:56 UTC cutoff. Its absolute daily change stood at the 93.3 percentile among 30 matching observations on the prior-30-day basis. Across the same cutoff comparison, Bitcoin 2W ATM IV fell 3.93 volatility points to 31.84%, Bitcoin 1M ATM IV fell 1.91 volatility points to 34.77%, and Bitcoin 6M ATM IV fell just 0.02 volatility points to 38.02%. The 1Y reading remains unavailable.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

[The Block](https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-10-09-thailand-sec-issues-bitcoin-and-ether-etf-rules-set-to-take-effect-oct-16-418132) reported that Thailand’s initial crypto ETFs would be limited to Bitcoin and Ether, with custody, exposure and trading rules taking effect October 16. Separately, [Cointelegraph](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-ether-etfs-october-outflows-billion) reported Bitcoin ETF outflows on Thursday. These market-access and fund-flow reports provide context without establishing a cause for the options adjustment.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

40.64 vol points

Measurement 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

38.24 vol points

Measurement 09 Oct 2026, 16:54:33 UTC

Stale · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 87s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible

Comparison suppressed — BVIV: Measurement age 87s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible

As of 09 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 09 Oct 2026, 16:54:33 UTC; observed receipt 09 Oct 2026, 16:55:00 UTC; ingested 09 Oct 2026, 16:55:00 UTC. Freshness: Stale, evaluated 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC. Measurement age 87s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · reference rejected by persisted source-age policy at observation · comparison ineligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -5.34 volatility points, to 31.11%.

RV observation windows

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

08 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC to 09 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market events

2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 16:56 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.11%, broadly in line with seven-day realised volatility of 30.24%; 24-hour realised volatility was 33.35% and 30-day realised volatility was 34.74%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -3.73 volatility points to 32.57% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.02% (-0.02 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.48 volatility points to -1.73 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.15 volatility points to 1.99 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -5.34 volatility points at 1W, to 31.11%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +2.30% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.83% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 13OCT26; removed 9OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

1W, -5.34 vol pts
02

Largest eligible smile rotation

16OCT26, +3.97 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, +1.15 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, -0.33 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

23OCT26, +0.2381 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

12OCT26, -0.2173 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W31.1136.45-5.34 vol pts-14.65%
2W31.8435.77-3.93 vol pts-10.99%
1M34.7736.68-1.91 vol pts-5.21%
3M37.2737.72-0.45 vol pts-1.19%
6M38.0238.04-0.02 vol pts-0.05%
9M38.5838.57+0.01 vol pts+0.03%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.48 volatility points to -1.73 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-3.9 vol pts-3.0 vol pts-2.1 vol pts-1.2 vol pts-0.3 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-1.96-3.11+1.15 vol pts
2W-2.58-3.54+0.96 vol pts
1M-1.90-2.66+0.76 vol pts
3M-1.21-0.99-0.22 vol pts
6M-1.02-0.78-0.24 vol pts
9M-0.89-0.69-0.20 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.15 volatility points to 1.99 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

1.4 vol pts1.7 vol pts2.0 vol pts2.3 vol pts2.7 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W1.661.99-0.33 vol pts
2W1.581.84-0.26 vol pts
1M1.942.12-0.18 vol pts
3M2.332.37-0.04 vol pts
6M2.462.42+0.04 vol pts
9M2.432.430.00 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

10OCT26, -15.10 vol pts
1.6d

ATM IV change

11OCT26, -15.02 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

30.2%32.5%34.8%37.2%39.5%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
10OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days82,708.71+1705.44 USD24.25%-15.10 vol pts+0.05 vol pts-1.15 vol pts
11OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days82,739.51+1721.60 USD19.72%-15.02 vol pts+0.30 vol pts-0.44 vol pts
12OCT262.6 days82,749.18+1716.07 USD22.23%-11.47 vol pts+0.96 vol pts-0.48 vol pts
16OCT266.6 days82,813.13+1718.00 USD31.04%-5.64 vol pts+1.18 vol pts-0.36 vol pts
23OCT2613.6 days82,908.98+1713.88 USD31.75%-3.97 vol pts+0.99 vol pts-0.27 vol pts
30OCT2620.6 days82,993.32+1696.42 USD32.92%-3.10 vol pts+1.41 vol pts-0.33 vol pts
27NOV2648.6 days83,344.23+1727.16 USD36.25%-1.10 vol pts-0.02 vol pts-0.06 vol pts
25DEC2676.6 days83,660.56+1716.56 USD37.01%-0.64 vol pts-0.22 vol pts-0.04 vol pts
26MAR27167.6 days84,722.99+1733.59 USD37.89%-0.03 vol pts-0.25 vol pts+0.03 vol pts
25JUN27258.6 days85,874.28+1731.97 USD38.48%+0.01 vol pts-0.20 vol pts0.00 vol pts
24SEP27349.6 days86,980.46+1732.68 USD38.95%-0.06 vol pts-0.22 vol pts+0.06 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

10OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
11OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
12OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
16OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
23OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27limited movement
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.3 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.62.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.75%, against VIX at 15.41: a 20.34-point spread and 2.32× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 34.81%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 10.14%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 43.0% of 251 prior observations.

This separate RV estimate uses 20 daily close-to-close log returns, sampled at 16:00 New York time, ending at the completed-session timestamp shown below. It requires a valid close for each day, rather than every intervening minute. Crypto RV is annualised with √365; SPX uses 20 trading-session returns and √252. It does not replace the intraday IV–RV comparison.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.622 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.347 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 12.21, 15.41 and 18.08.

As of 08 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

MCP market-context-v1; requested as_of=2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00. Benchmark and crypto observation timestamps=2026-10-08T20:00:00Z; ingestedAt=2026-10-08T22:30:51.921788Z. Freshness=fresh, ageSeconds=75360, evaluatedAt=2026-10-09T16:56:00Z; qualityStatus=valid; alignmentToleranceSeconds=600. Sources: Derivasys 30-day fixed-tenor surface, Derivasys canonical crypto index, yahoo_finance ^VIX/^VIX9D/^VIX3M/^GSPC. IV and RV values/spreads use volatility_points; ratios use ratio; correlations use correlation_coefficient; percentiles use percentile_rank. Crypto IV uses ACT/365; crypto RV uses 20 calendar-day close-to-close log returns and sqrt(365); SPX RV uses 20 US-session log returns and sqrt(252). Comparisons retain mixed clocks. Additional returned crossAsset metrics: ivSpreadChange1d=0.600000076293945 volatility_points; ivRatioChange1d=0.010903572138344142 ratio_change; rvSpreadChange1d=-6.448052992390959 volatility_points; rvRatioChange1d=-0.6063276388087275 ratio_change; ivSpreadPercentile=null and ivRatioPercentile=null, each sampleCount=27; returnCorrelation30Percentile=74.10714285714286, sampleCount=224; returnCorrelation60Percentile=10.365853658536585, sampleCount=164. Level and change metrics have sampleCount=null except explicitly counted correlations/percentiles. Percentiles use prior valid observations only.

Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-08 16:56:00 UTC → 2026-10-09 16:56:00 UTC

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 9 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 1W ATM IV 31.11% · Δ -5.34 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Original report summary

Bitcoin 1W ATM IV fell 5.34 volatility points to 31.11% versus the October 8 16:56 UTC cutoff. The October 9 snapshot shows the decline concentrated in shorter maturities, with 6M ATM IV barely changing. One-week skew shifted toward calls but remained negative, while Thailand’s forthcoming ETF rules and reported Bitcoin ETF outflows provided institutional context.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 31.11% · Δ -5.34 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -1.96 vol pts · Δ +1.15 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 31.11% / 7D RV 30.24% · spread +0.87 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 31.11% · Δ -5.34 vol ptspercentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -1.96 vol pts · Δ +1.15 vol ptspercentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.66 vol pts · Δ -0.33 vol ptspercentile rank 76.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 31.11% / 7D RV 30.24% · spread +0.87 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 93.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 70.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 76.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 23OCT26; the largest sigma change occurred at 12OCT26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
10OCT26+0.04170-0.06670-0.15860-0.01380-0.22240rotation towards puts, wing steepening
11OCT26+0.03530-0.02880+0.00300+0.03610-0.22210rotation towards puts, wing steepening
12OCT26+0.04170-0.03890-0.02260+0.01830-0.21730rotation towards calls, wing steepening
16OCT26+0.02840-0.02830+0.21700+0.13460-0.09490rotation towards calls, wing steepening
23OCT26+0.02800-0.02550+0.23810+0.15800-0.09580rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26+0.02610-0.02780+0.22610+0.13990-0.07080rotation towards calls
27NOV26-0.00220-0.00130+0.00870+0.00550+0.00500parallel shift lower
25DEC26-0.00390-0.00080+0.01190+0.01160+0.01020parallel shift lower
26MAR27+0.003300.00000-0.00910+0.00340-0.01230limited movement
25JUN27-0.02320+0.01160-0.00260-0.00430+0.03940limited movement
24SEP27+0.01580+0.00560-0.06720-0.06300-0.05650limited movement

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Vega24SEP27, 333.502821 USD / vol pt
Highest Gamma10OCT26, 0.000479 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay10OCT26, -264.21819 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001917 delta / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.311072 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC30.24%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 09 Oct 2026, 16:56:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
09 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Comparison snapshot
08 Oct 2026, 16:56 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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