01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Bitcoin options: 1W ATM volatility rises 2.87 points, outpacing longer tenors
Bitcoin 1W ATM implied volatility rose 2.87 volatility points to 31.90% over the 24 hours ending 16:30 UTC on 4 October. The maturity contrast was pronounced: 2W ATM IV gained 1.79 points to 32.40%, 1M ATM IV gained 0.58 points to 33.99%, and 6M ATM IV added just 0.10 points to 37.50%. Fixed-tenor 1Y observations remain unavailable.
Macro
No additional qualifying evidence was identified.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported that El Salvador received $138 million from the IMF after Bitcoin waivers, alongside continuing efforts to reduce state involvement in Bitcoin activities and strengthen crypto regulation. Al Jazeera separately reported Iran's statement that Hormuz would remain closed until the US met conditions, adding a broader economic backdrop. Both accounts remain provisional single-source reporting; none of the three developments establishes a measured explanation for the options changes.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV
Model-derived and market-implied volatility.
Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.
39.62 vol points
Measurement 04 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC
At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag
37.85 vol points
Measurement 04 Oct 2026, 16:28:58 UTC
At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag
-1.76 vol points
As of 04 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.
Index evidence and methodology
DS30 · Source measurement 04 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 04 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices
BVIV · Source measurement 04 Oct 2026, 16:28:58 UTC; observed receipt 04 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC; ingested 04 Oct 2026, 16:29:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 04 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel
BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"source": "market-context-mcp",
"type": "btc_volatility_context_latest",
"asset": "BTC",
"asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-04T16:30:00+00:00",
"status": "available",
"ds30": {
"value": 39.61791387384475,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-04T16:30:00+00:00",
"observedAt": null,
"ingestedAt": null,
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-10-04T16:30:00+00:00"
},
"availability": null,
"methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices"
},
"bviv": {
"value": 37.854576782158,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-04T16:28:58+00:00",
"observedAt": "2026-10-04T16:29:00+00:00",
"ingestedAt": "2026-10-04T16:29:00+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 62,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-10-04T16:30:00+00:00"
},
"availability": "streaming",
"methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel"
},
"bvivMinusDs30": {
"value": -1.7633370916867506,
"units": "volatility_points",
"status": "available",
"methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff"
}
}Source index JSON02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.87 volatility points, to 31.90%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
03 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC to 04 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
3 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 31.90%, 1.15 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 33.05%; 24-hour realised volatility was 12.81% and 30-day realised volatility was 33.61%.
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.75 volatility points to 32.76% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.50% (+0.10 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.63 volatility points to -0.01 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.11 volatility points to 2.08 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.87 volatility points at 1W, to 31.90%.
Universe roll: added 8OCT26; removed 4OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.