Derivasys
Open Dashboard

Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options show lower 2w ATM IV

BTC spot rose 0.71%; Skew moved toward puts (-0.21 vol points); Wing premium decreased (-0.07 vol points).

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 29 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

Generated timestamp:

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-29 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-28 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-29 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.71%1W ATM IV 35.78%1W RR25 -2.71 vol pts1W BF25 +0.97 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +4.65 vol pts

Lead move: BTC 2W ATM IV Δ -1.07 vol pts → 35.34% · percentile rank 65.2% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=23).

2W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

2W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. BTC: Current 35.34, Previous 36.41.CurrentPreviousBTC35.3436.410.0019.6639.32

Current: 29 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Previous: 28 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

Bitcoin options show lower 2w ATM IV. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W35.7836.54
2W35.3436.41
1M34.9335.49
3M36.1036.80
6M37.6837.82
9M38.4038.54
1YUnavailableUnavailable
Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 28 Oct, 17:31 UTC to 29 Oct, 17:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-28: “Bitcoin options show higher 3m RR25 skew”

Previous publication cutoff 28 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 28 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 139a0b32b7ccee06c0a29850fffd0922a6e1a85a6425617907e90262f6726835

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-28 daily edition.

  • BTC 2W ATM IV: prior change +0.09 → current change -1.07 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC spot-index return: prior change -0.21 → current change +0.71 percent; direction reversed.
  • BTC 2W RR25: prior change +0.23 → current change -0.21 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 2W BF25: prior change +0.17 → current change -0.07 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC 3M RR25 ≥ -2.49 volatility points (hold the observed endpoint) at 29 Oct, 17:31 UTC: met (observed -2.47 volatility points).
  • BTC 3M RR25 ≤ -2.86 volatility points (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 29 Oct, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed -2.47 volatility points).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 2W ATM IV ≤ 35.34 percent at . Current level 35.34; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 2W ATM IV ≥ 36.41 percent at . Current level 35.34; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 ad49095d53ff0ffac914c0e388478692a8b6ea72840cbc292f18ad81b5b706d9

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-28/139a0b32b7ccee06c0a29850fffd0922a6e1a85a6425617907e90262f6726835.json · SHA-256 139a0b32b7ccee06c0a29850fffd0922a6e1a85a6425617907e90262f6726835

Consumed endpoint proof: f323a242679b448f20087011bded75ae75f6f8588ff6474cf5ff3afc29068666

  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-29T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-30T17:31:00+00:00.
Chart notes

01 · Daily briefing

Macro · Crypto · Options

The day in markets.

Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.

Bitcoin options show lower 2W ATM IV

The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -1.07 volatility points over the stored comparison. Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Decrypt reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “[…] Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established. The Defiant reported in a headline excerpt (numerical details omitted): “Fed Holds Rates at […] as Bitcoin Gives Back Brief Gain”. This is background reporting; a direct link to the options observation is not established.

Macro

No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.

Crypto

Selected canonical sources are retained below as context.

Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

40.49 vol points

Measurement 29 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

38.98 vol points

Measurement 29 Oct 2026, 17:29:55 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 65s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-1.51 vol points

As of 29 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -1.07 volatility points, to 35.34%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

28 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC to 29 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst

Relevant market event

1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.

Confidencelow causal confidence

News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 35.78%, 4.65 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.13%; 24-hour realised volatility was 38.98% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.28%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.80 volatility points to 35.35% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.68% (-0.14 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.26 volatility points to -2.69 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.08 volatility points to 1.00 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.07 volatility points at 2W, to 35.34%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.71% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -0.24% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 20NOV26, 29JAN27, 2NOV26; removed 29OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

1NOV26, -4.42 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, -1.07 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, -0.82 vol pts
04

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

1NOV26, -0.1619 param
05

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

3M, -0.14 vol pts
06

Largest eligible SVI rho move

6NOV26, +0.1027 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W35.7836.54-0.76 vol pts-2.08%
2W35.3436.41-1.07 vol pts-2.94%
1M34.9335.49-0.56 vol pts-1.58%
3M36.1036.80-0.70 vol pts-1.90%
6M37.6837.82-0.14 vol pts-0.37%
9M38.4038.54-0.14 vol pts-0.36%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.26 volatility points to -2.69 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-3.5 vol pts-3.0 vol pts-2.5 vol pts-2.0 vol pts-1.6 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-2.71-1.89-0.82 vol pts
2W-2.73-2.52-0.21 vol pts
1M-3.32-3.12-0.20 vol pts
3M-2.47-2.49+0.02 vol pts
6M-2.20-2.10-0.10 vol pts
9M-1.87-1.76-0.11 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 3M.

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.08 volatility points to 1.00 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

0.7 vol pts0.9 vol pts1.0 vol pts1.2 vol pts1.4 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W0.971.02-0.05 vol pts
2W0.910.98-0.07 vol pts
1M1.071.17-0.10 vol pts
3M1.021.16-0.14 vol pts
6M1.041.09-0.05 vol pts
9M1.011.010.00 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

Smile rotation

30OCT26, -6.32 vol pts
1.6d

Smile rotation

31OCT26, -5.18 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

34.5%35.6%36.7%37.9%39.0%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
30OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days80,992.76+464.96 USD30.04%-5.63 vol pts-0.35 vol pts-0.47 vol pts
31OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days81,025.15+486.18 USD30.44%-3.06 vol pts-0.80 vol pts-0.17 vol pts
1NOV262.6 days81,037.16+484.49 USD26.15%-4.44 vol pts-0.63 vol pts-0.10 vol pts
6NOV267.6 days81,105.87+494.82 USD36.48%-1.12 vol pts-0.83 vol pts-0.07 vol pts
13NOV2614.6 days81,193.33+498.26 USD35.28%-0.93 vol pts-0.11 vol pts-0.07 vol pts
27NOV2628.6 days81,361.89+506.58 USD34.87%-0.61 vol pts-0.24 vol pts-0.10 vol pts
25DEC2656.6 days81,714.72+510.13 USD35.51%-0.46 vol pts0.00 vol pts-0.04 vol pts
26MAR27147.6 days82,790.89+535.52 USD37.21%-0.14 vol pts-0.13 vol pts-0.09 vol pts
25JUN27238.6 days83,929.16+565.62 USD38.16%-0.15 vol pts-0.06 vol pts-0.02 vol pts
24SEP27329.6 days85,087.02+584.31 USD38.68%-0.14 vol pts-0.18 vol pts0.00 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

30OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
31OCT26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
1NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
13NOV26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.1 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.62.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.50%, against VIX at 16.91: a 18.59-point spread and 2.10× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 25.10%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 10.10%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 12.1% of 265 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.619 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.429 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 15.60, 16.91 and 19.22.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 28 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 29 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 29 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 29 Oct 2026, 17:29:55 UTC; observed receipt 29 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC; ingested 29 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 29 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 65s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON
RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-29 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-28 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-29 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 29 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 2W ATM IV 35.34% · Δ -1.07 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 65.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-28

Original report summary

BTC 2W ATM IV is 35.34 percent, compared with 36.41 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 35.78% · Δ -0.76 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -2.71 vol pts · Δ -0.82 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 35.78% / 7D RV 31.13% · spread +4.65 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 35.78% · Δ -0.76 vol ptspercentile rank 43.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-28

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -2.71 vol pts · Δ -0.82 vol ptspercentile rank 56.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-28

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 0.97 vol pts · Δ -0.05 vol ptspercentile rank 47.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-28

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 35.78% / 7D RV 31.13% · spread +4.65 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 43.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-28

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 56.5% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-28

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 47.8% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=23); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-28

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: ad49095d53ff0ffac914c0e388478692a8b6ea72840cbc292f18ad81b5b706d9.

Daily options-surface context: active. Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5d9983ab56e177cf55fa20ad0e31b6ef710d95b9f58fe02d40116a66e757dbbf
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a854f5b5cacd8d93f7d735b094a3dfccbcd9dc9c7213261d6d3a4118d12577d0
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ceef3c8dff6151a55ffc4ba69c7c26680d72459562d5af9b4c7d579e3ea67849
BTC 1W bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:05738b2fe3f91ce7458f1df9fa6619f2e52cb849d8c9adda39a0cb970a3fc517
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c23ea80b6d8fdc8655e25ec184516073791e9f0b98223f979857547e87171997
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:16218c511fcd50483eb049053fbb33de64261d91339afdfccc8ec386f3e7db58
BTC 1W rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ed4ed0e857f8cd845e115ac3cd168caaebbb01fda6220d6e37f0b856b67cc1c6
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b5aa8a5bd50dabad5c940d87f211df04d68131065c1787feeab2ead26e53a603
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:833d9c1cee95a1e660d950a30c22d6f04a8838b156004b98aad145f30f87603c
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bb3883bed4b34cc9a88ad050c2b454a699bdd57ea709d218babae0ebe79755dd
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:c478db3da68f07bade199903917f9eb0a276a281b93cc15ea0f40c9cb5f0d6cf
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3b1fd404e237bdc2d2180a1dcf2e65f7e4738464c61c2216faa3abbfeec1d0f6
BTC 2W bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a950de608161cafa851ce2bf2fb5627283d8349a7ed36955b568d731adf2ef30
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d605122d0034db76d940ca0f95e485a6525b5b148cadbc7ec9d487b175654e71
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:bc103ace8145a699bff4bbf221e648c131522be6b6bdf7cbe1f24c5ae48a4fff
BTC 2W rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2811cbb56985b430e28c640fd3b6aa1c9917a0929365ea17db3a5e06a1674b1c
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d0b43ff0b8d2440147710b087540cc34b85ca85a17ccaf64ef2352785d1c534c
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:198639e15229c2c78a50ae51736ec1dd5bcdbc9a32624e9f3ba05db1239f4ec4
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:20bd4d440c23e72907ad362925983cc7bea48449d879c1edcb9cec82b7f397c2
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ebdbad4a79f138edee0b3baffd351cece3d28f3b271a9807adefe21b635c4999
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:29006afc08ed6351412f6fa5f811fe770b40fe2a997f20614e774767178f0944
BTC 1M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d2c14a14bbc82c30a141d2b3d34ff798db30c350b85d8daeb33f51523984f84a
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fcc40fb2bbdba75fee5b4809260591e4622c7c81bfff622bd204b33772f40d75
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d6310ddea1ad41c425311ead0aa21c7c8e16e5bba5248d053ba8c17b0b4be768
BTC 1M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8c8aadec886d0aaea8ae2e701a984a66f515ad699519f7713c6651e7f96a0df1
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b38321bffea86e7d2e84465d34911073a92313014c2c8e5fc4c39c2a7694fbef
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0efe50495e57594e726972fa7d749fbdb37f82d6b15aaffae2f1fcdc9f78d455
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d8c6d4c19b2b40d22f94201c7cb23eef78ac478f6bde2984ff5f56e44ad779c3
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:539d2c31f8d808da1aedb81a56e6794b8ddc3154267fa979ce8a16e6c2df5c21
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:70bf1d04e60e2f94960a871c472ed5c9c315c250b549d8025c71d3f3b82b5e4b
BTC 3M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:98370f6512b8374fefb2f3eda9cb566e656bba0cc15cf4ffb8ffbc1602575d48
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3095a3462488e824f64176a264d069b6535a92f1f74c572f5fe288ba51f64c4c
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d92e9e6620179f187afd4c48110a75bc46ad6c2e2412219be94a82a785908dd4
BTC 3M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8e0d73ef473ad6dea6da36414c7f21414706086e7603720cef7bdff18f94c0cd
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:32c333ded8b02f1edf7e1ec17858b600822a8541442eb111b57b0a70967791d9
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:92d937c51b5040654c22c2908d5179278792f529bf864c5b42003923ca2f071b
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dd3f882aa4ffcb28a58f808584ccadaae6c580bbbff2b5d6117903ef249e6424
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:637a077400f4690f74fdee421e691d9655647a051fd757401f0d689416a8a839
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e4d93c54a799631d184d0a9211536769fb8448c5f736912b73710978e47d3fe1
BTC 6M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ab1d98198b7c356fe867211105ec0440c23ce71c82ad32ffded714412a0207d0
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6a2e9c10b3b4f248cf3f85b9adb3c26884d6cd356420a6ceeee5a11538b81fba
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f559c11271c30733d3e0705a1f084f796c9560c4ed43c4b1a28735bff2ea0f4a
BTC 6M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ceac9fca78af811243a02628eb62975d7329695d0459532bb2047a7c34a44b24
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:81aab81e8f38065687beae1ce52879294fa687dfdb9f96803a5efba9de7660eb
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:fee516ce2ace8070c0b7fe91e57eab8bc21cc19bbb28986bc8865ccfb1f4cf64
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5a0ae948f5a8071f7efedb93ad2ec21fb9e2cacc1966cd738a7c02600bcf508f
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:92fc18a4d2e04fdef0c81023b1959fa9fbcfd9bd24fb79e41d57ca24d494a047
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:752a7eb4b704a5d8001dac480c1a4f1f75f66dffd20b25cd3163a44e36b6216a
BTC 9M bf25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d127cd855b14a2d04605a1d366e48fff5e639b74a724de09566479ea65e076ba
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:faae2c02494942bd12c28836887bae3c10fae58c2244a2feceaa71cf828cbc02
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f5ccfed289d78c7bd9862a681d518a3c62607e99b92c8355716e7c861838f24c
BTC 9M rr25move30d23 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-09-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:95bb680d30bf62f0535b540c2958f70c81738bd1470ddd2d424a3cc74abf2839
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory44 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d49de97b98e3037c6edf6d97133de2b0f48ea08348e05bb643f26cc98a4a30d8
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory53 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-28
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:82934218e7ca3d19938cfd78afec70adfc51f7b873cf9349c01c4ef2ca8a1a9a
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 6NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 1NOV26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
30OCT26+0.01310-0.03350-0.05410-0.01600-0.02470rotation towards puts, wing steepening
31OCT26+0.02580-0.03310-0.05520-0.01420-0.10090rotation towards puts, wing steepening
1NOV26+0.03390-0.03580-0.06220-0.00810-0.16190rotation towards puts, wing steepening
6NOV26-0.00460-0.00360+0.10270+0.07220+0.03610rotation towards puts, wing steepening
13NOV26+0.00720-0.00970+0.03730+0.02990-0.00650parallel shift lower
27NOV26+0.00600-0.01030-0.07310-0.04420+0.00610rotation towards puts
25DEC26+0.00500-0.00620+0.00840+0.00780-0.00770parallel shift lower
26MAR27-0.02380+0.01150-0.04330-0.06220+0.06960parallel shift lower
25JUN27+0.00410-0.00360-0.00510-0.00160-0.00350parallel shift lower
24SEP27-0.00700+0.01640-0.03380-0.04230-0.00870parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma30OCT26, 0.000403 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay30OCT26, -326.993184 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001864 delta / vol pt
Highest Vega24SEP27, 317.167309 USD / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.276958 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC31.13%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 29 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
29 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot
28 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

Continue through Derivasys

From today’s report to the underlying methods.

Live dashboard All reports Daily metrics data Latest BTC daily Latest weekly API Volatility surface guide What is SVI? Risk reversals Butterflies Local volatility Variance swaps

Get reports by email

Request daily or weekly crypto options reports in your inbox.