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Daily BTC options market report · 24-hour comparison

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.24 points to 36.32%

BTC spot rose 0.62%; Skew moved toward calls (+0.79 vol points); Wing premium decreased (-0.21 vol points).

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published

Snapshot data and comparison

Snapshot · 27 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

Generated timestamp:

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-27 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-26 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-27 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

  • BTCSpot-index 24h +0.62%1W ATM IV 36.35%1W RR25 -2.06 vol pts1W BF25 +1.82 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV +5.37 vol pts

Lead move: BTC 2W ATM IV Δ -1.24 vol pts → 36.32% · percentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · 1-day moves · 30-day window (n=22).

2W ATM IV – selected tenor
Percent

2W ATM IV – selected tenor. Percent. BTC: Current 36.32, Previous 37.56.CurrentPreviousBTC36.3237.560.0020.2840.56

Current: 27 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Previous: 26 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.24 points to 36.32%. ATM implied-volatility term structure from Derivasys data.
Source: Derivasys options data. ATM implied-volatility; unsupported tenors remain blank. Cite this report.

View full-size chart

Plotted chart data
ATM IV, percent · 2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00
TenorBTC currentBTC previous
1W36.3537.47
2W36.3237.56
1M35.4936.35
3M37.0537.46
6M38.0038.23
9M38.6938.85
1YUnavailableUnavailable

The 2W ATM IV change for BTC was -1.24 volatility points over the stored comparison. No news item was selected for this report date.

Chart download and reuse termsDownload 1280 × 720 chart · Reuse terms
Previous report, watch levels and methodology

Uses the stored headline’s selected tenor. Cutoffs 26 Oct, 17:31 UTC to 27 Oct, 17:31 UTC.

Previous publication · research context

2026-10-26: “Bitcoin options see one-week implied volatility rise 1.70 points to 37.47%”

Previous publication cutoff 26 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Today’s market comparison starts at 26 Oct, 17:31 UTC. Snapshot clocks align for the measured comparison below.

Previous publication JSON · SHA-256 1f57a6e2cf91c3091e2b7f5cec6d071be9cc5d52cfd5597382613e0c99fb2046

Prior watch: measured outcome

Against the 2026-10-26 daily edition.

  • BTC 2W ATM IV: prior change +0.74 → current change -1.24 volatility points; direction reversed.
  • BTC spot-index return: prior change -0.59 → current change +0.62 percent; direction reversed.
  • BTC 2W RR25: prior change +0.74 → current change +0.79 volatility points; same direction.
  • BTC 2W BF25: prior change -0.16 → current change -0.21 volatility points; same direction.
  • BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 37.47 percent (hold the observed endpoint) at 27 Oct, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed 36.35 percent).
  • BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 35.77 percent (full retrace to the prior endpoint) at 27 Oct, 17:31 UTC: not met (observed 36.35 percent).

Next daily cutoff: measurable checks

  • Hold the observed level: BTC 2W ATM IV ≤ 36.32 percent at . Current level 36.32; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
  • Full retrace: BTC 2W ATM IV ≥ 37.56 percent at . Current level 36.32; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt

These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Stored editorial receipt independently reconstructed against native endpoints.

Canonical current report JSON · SHA-256 282fcd45e5e3c70f7eec89aba6977eae052384a1cb5827735b9bcda163af790b

Prior artifact: /v1/btc/daily/2026-10-26/1f57a6e2cf91c3091e2b7f5cec6d071be9cc5d52cfd5597382613e0c99fb2046.json · SHA-256 1f57a6e2cf91c3091e2b7f5cec6d071be9cc5d52cfd5597382613e0c99fb2046

Consumed endpoint proof: 970ee5b31bda9406ae99212c9b7e0becf3c6452b7386ecba418e3c1ba5aea300

  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00.
  • BTC:atmIv:2W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=2W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-10-27T17:31:00+00:00 to 2026-10-28T17:31:00+00:00.
Chart notes

BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV

Model-derived and market-implied volatility.

Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.

DS30 · Derivasys model-derived

40.39 vol points

Measurement 27 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC

At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag

BVIV · Bitfinex market reference

39.36 vol points

Measurement 27 Oct 2026, 17:29:56 UTC

At report cutoff · 1 min measurement lag

Measurement age 64s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible

BVIV minus DS30

-1.03 vol points

As of 27 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -1.24 volatility points, to 36.32%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

26 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC to 27 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

No catalyst assigned.

No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.

04 · Detailed analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Implied versus realised

At the 17:31 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 36.35%, 5.37 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 30.98%; 24-hour realised volatility was 27.03% and 30-day realised volatility was 32.45%.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.07 volatility points to 36.05% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 38.00% (-0.23 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.53 volatility points to -2.68 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.14 volatility points to 2.04 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.24 volatility points at 2W, to 36.32%.

24h spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was +0.62% over 24 hours.

7d spot-index return

BTC spot-index return was -2.39% over seven days.

Universe roll: added 31OCT26; removed 27OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.

05 · Standard-tenor ranking

Largest surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

30OCT26, +4.37 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, -1.24 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

1W, +1.04 vol pts
04

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

1W, -0.24 vol pts
05

Largest eligible SVI rho move

24SEP27, -0.1507 param
06

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

30OCT26, -0.1445 param

06 · ATM volatility

Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.

TenorCurrent (vol %)Comparison snapshot (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W36.3537.47-1.12 vol pts-2.99%
2W36.3237.56-1.24 vol pts-3.30%
1M35.4936.35-0.86 vol pts-2.37%
3M37.0537.46-0.41 vol pts-1.09%
6M38.0038.23-0.23 vol pts-0.60%
9M38.6938.85-0.16 vol pts-0.41%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

07 · Risk reversals

RR25 skew moved most at 1W.

RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.53 volatility points to -2.68 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.

-4.3 vol pts-3.6 vol pts-2.9 vol pts-2.2 vol pts-1.6 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W-2.06-3.10+1.04 vol pts
2W-2.75-3.54+0.79 vol pts
1M-3.37-4.02+0.65 vol pts
3M-2.86-3.08+0.22 vol pts
6M-2.37-2.34-0.03 vol pts
9M-1.93-1.82-0.11 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

08 · Butterflies

BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.

BF25 decreased, averaging -0.14 volatility points to 2.04 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.

1.6 vol pts1.8 vol pts2.1 vol pts2.3 vol pts2.5 vol pts1W2W1M3M6M9M
TenorCurrent (vol pts)Comparison snapshot (vol pts)Change (vol pts)
1W1.822.06-0.24 vol pts
2W1.792.00-0.21 vol pts
1M2.132.26-0.13 vol pts
3M2.262.32-0.06 vol pts
6M2.212.28-0.07 vol pts
9M2.092.18-0.09 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Source: Derivasys Research — structured data

09 · Expiry effects

Near-settlement moves, shown with context.

Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.

0.6d

ATM IV change

28OCT26, -9.39 vol pts
1.6d

Smile rotation

29OCT26, +7.88 vol pts

10 · Volatility term structure

Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.

Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.

35.1%36.1%37.2%38.2%39.3%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.

ExpiryTime leftForward now (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV nowATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
28OCT26Expiry effect0.6 days80,642.48+488.01 USD22.24%-9.39 vol pts+1.47 vol pts-0.91 vol pts
29OCT26Expiry effect1.6 days80,669.87+506.50 USD32.89%-2.23 vol pts+1.98 vol pts-0.16 vol pts
30OCT262.6 days80,696.58+498.24 USD33.66%-1.30 vol pts+1.24 vol pts+0.12 vol pts
6NOV269.6 days80,780.01+516.91 USD37.14%-1.20 vol pts+1.02 vol pts-0.22 vol pts
13NOV2616.6 days80,867.26+517.91 USD36.03%-1.02 vol pts+0.76 vol pts-0.18 vol pts
27NOV2630.6 days81,038.05+536.19 USD35.48%-0.82 vol pts+0.67 vol pts-0.15 vol pts
25DEC2658.6 days81,392.63+539.64 USD36.34%-0.59 vol pts+0.26 vol pts-0.04 vol pts
26MAR27149.6 days82,462.52+548.07 USD37.55%-0.31 vol pts+0.17 vol pts-0.07 vol pts
25JUN27240.6 days83,588.34+555.39 USD38.49%-0.17 vol pts-0.26 vol pts-0.06 vol pts
24SEP27331.6 days84,724.23+546.72 USD38.95%-0.17 vol pts+0.11 vol pts-0.11 vol pts

11 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.

Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.

28OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
29OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
6NOV26rotation towards calls · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
13NOV26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards calls
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
24SEP27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.

Completed-session cross-asset context

Crypto volatility against US equity risk.

BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.0 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was mixed at 0.62.

Implied-volatility premium

BTC 30-day ATM IV was 36.32%, against VIX at 18.39: a 17.93-point spread and 1.97× ratio.

Daily-close realised-volatility regime

BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 27.30%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 9.92%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 17.9% of 263 prior observations.

Equity co-movement

Return correlation with SPX was 0.619 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.400 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 17.92, 18.39 and 19.94.

RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.

As of 26 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.

Evidence and methodology

market-context-v1

Index evidence and methodology

DS30 · Source measurement 27 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 27 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 0s · report-cutoff maximum 120s · comparison eligible. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices

BVIV · Source measurement 27 Oct 2026, 17:29:56 UTC; observed receipt 27 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC; ingested 27 Oct 2026, 17:30:00 UTC. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 27 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC. Measurement age 64s · report-cutoff maximum 90s · persisted source maximum 15s · source availability: streaming · comparison eligible. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel

BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff

Source index JSON
RV observation windows and sampling

The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Scheduled edition reference: 2026-10-27 17:31:00 UTC. Native observations below retain their actual fit times.

Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-10-26 17:31:00 UTC → 2026-10-27 17:31:00 UTC
Report native fit age at scheduled reference
0 minutes

Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.

Lead signal · 27 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

BTC 2W ATM IV 36.32% · Δ -1.24 vol pts

BTC percentile rank 68.2% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-26

Original report summary

BTC 2W ATM IV is 36.32 percent, compared with 37.56 percent at the prior cutoff. The diary separates sourced context from measured market changes; the timing of an event alone does not establish a causal link.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 36.35% · Δ -1.12 vol pts

Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -2.06 vol pts · Δ +1.04 vol pts

Relative value: BTC 1W IV 36.35% / 7D RV 30.98% · spread +5.37 vol pts

Vol

BTC 1W ATM IV 36.35% · Δ -1.12 vol ptspercentile rank 50.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-26

Skew

BTC 1W RR25 -2.06 vol pts · Δ +1.04 vol ptspercentile rank 64.3% by absolute move · full history (n=42); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-26

Wings

BTC 1W BF25 1.82 vol pts · Δ -0.24 vol ptspercentile rank 77.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-26

IV versus RV

BTC 1W IV 36.35% / 7D RV 30.98% · spread +5.37 vol pts

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Historical move evidence

BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 50.0% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-26

BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 64.3% by absolute move · full history (n=42); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-08-31 to 2026-10-26

BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 77.3% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=22); 1-day moves sampled daily UTC; 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-26

Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance

Download the full canonical report and evidence receipts (JSON). Artifact SHA-256: 282fcd45e5e3c70f7eec89aba6977eae052384a1cb5827735b9bcda163af790b.

Bitcoin options see two-week implied volatility fall 1.24 points to 36.32% Quiet describes only daily options-surface movements under the stored operational policy; it makes no weekly stabilization claim.

Percentile sample windows, horizons and receipts

Samples use daily UTC observations. Weekly moves can be rolling and overlapping; observation counts do not imply independent periods. Missing legacy bounds and source revisions remain unavailable.

Frozen percentile denominators
Asset / tenor / metricCohortCount / horizonActual boundsOverlap / provenance
BTC 1W atmIvmove30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:5b7ccec2fc304fdbfa0b6a9a7cf55b056cf6766bcb5f35c28537eaf768fe57b5
BTC 1W atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e2b0b4db0ca6643b94647ef0d16d375b2d5faaa6e509547fddc443747943023b
BTC 1W atmIvlevelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b6ca7bb12c6dedcc6a32eb8982778c08b8846fbb124ccb744a38a54ed1b3d948
BTC 1W bf25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0e8245f87b83c54bc78b3822cf3c7d0d69c50da4fd0ac96aa0d4d1bbe059851c
BTC 1W bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1757f8d109cdf216624db98021aa909668bb41ef94f621bd660e17733260e97e
BTC 1W bf25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e47f932aee817463da83f186e613a1409c637b8efc0b3c96d2b16d8fe7b03604
BTC 1W rr25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3058d240d6ffaee35706bcd5f5945e76c3b1158b56492c21eb31486ebc02ce7e
BTC 1W rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:72ce119b59bb656509aa30cbd7ffae5125094a3edface6486835486e50bac4c9
BTC 1W rr25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8ae43acb47d97392d821f74abcff9dddef0759cd9470a1a1c67cfc245c3387d1
BTC 2W atmIvmove30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:647d015dc3724e2963f6dc5b6a18da10127ba9f0d4261bfd6b0f6abe51a931a7
BTC 2W atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:be906a014db38c31ec643050a5dafd0c9e1e37191e0d5f75e52ab306583ed27b
BTC 2W atmIvlevelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:821274580f544371608e35e6bd9dcef1ab6503665897e83c80c90c38e5b6c9ea
BTC 2W bf25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:710b4df09b58efc00e5719ecac5d0960be38c6b2937bfe1348da1926d65543f7
BTC 2W bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:8a493accaa53b56fdb119ef4152f2772772acfbb4beacdb3412f99699abd1780
BTC 2W bf25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3089efc767152cf96f2286353eab34ad844e0c9a763afdc98e2abb6e9d7adc66
BTC 2W rr25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:1f22b9e2b93491a4d6f9c522a271ccf59f2083783691363616481376f5b9f822
BTC 2W rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a16a19a2e1a41f6d6c8b684e2abc07420c5a6a5a08278049444a21f9ca67cf76
BTC 2W rr25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b19ad9c29693c8c67fa175136024fa24cd2e6b46eeda028d3a7e00f25f0d64f5
BTC 1M atmIvmove30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2e20d98c675d5c44a4cbeb3cb8af8fbb019535cf0beaf24a65ff011660b9d651
BTC 1M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3328a80844832fdf986f38a9330468864ef3b1eecac203e322ffd26817f8e5cf
BTC 1M atmIvlevelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6844746b80edeb0f1456df488a909959341e8bb288bc4c7f4cf86a130d58ce28
BTC 1M bf25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cbc78901b33354891041aebc43a01826b7bd7757d38fb7dbed94a08d6760d3ef
BTC 1M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:56b40c95c6bcb41d31297a84b38f84f4b4fa1f4406710be8920894a4cb75a9c3
BTC 1M bf25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:d13219389efef51e24ea79d90b13a8f363902dd50f505299e2255dea94ba6b44
BTC 1M rr25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cf3e3cf85e994a0204234a95148dc0c02c4ca53b3cf6e72dcd36382d54785282
BTC 1M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:0e9a07c8a65232bb5cfecb922d950133dd357ee0e3cd1e1451f76143a76ba5a2
BTC 1M rr25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:e45a5092a79d641133c7c705e4afe0e74c8f5c7db269f3f553e51ea55ad2bd3b
BTC 3M atmIvmove30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:6d1b6f9ecda16922d5511424682d1928d479a04b2a1d1300a232b5ef1f24a7b6
BTC 3M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:71087802c36122905b3954c56e45591da93fd199128f652c1fb1439f810f4c57
BTC 3M atmIvlevelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:16ddf06e253f2c6f3838d2e751581500b266c976a53574b4ec76ccba37e59826
BTC 3M bf25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ee93ce4bbf7f72627082a69006dc54c7e0100d4e974990ca1bd08942697ea8e0
BTC 3M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:04782b09e5aa39509bcf401f0910b3ad863a811e112ca256e91a2b0405dc6522
BTC 3M bf25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:185a111b2a2e7081109f8b7eccbc401b226e8e57ff50dc49e2744f92f1686ce0
BTC 3M rr25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:95957fea058abfab8ae0bcfe31db0c21cd3840d103789e215d6d5b6dee427762
BTC 3M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:59600cad6a64d83c801ebeb8f70a3c2c0c5a710b21f53d1a18e1f75d6542f576
BTC 3M rr25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:2ddf8ac75a49053bd1c04896a96fa251bcf51a1b70781b3c2f94a3c2b1befb3e
BTC 6M atmIvmove30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:41c87932b1c4fd023546c5857cefc9c14dfba5f88f45c9242006dfb50c80dddc
BTC 6M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4cd85ec2d8138c8088c085f81946f396211cfb90ec4f3e3ad98967dd8cf234ac
BTC 6M atmIvlevelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:f63292958f694f4e50c0a51c72544e84507aef8977cc7709824402323bfebb22
BTC 6M bf25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:409511aa1eb422eabce7bf40adf71914910f1e59e1c8d555bc0a7a7f220e2069
BTC 6M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:63bc91506ba04cbd2efd52b1d13d6bec50708d23bc7a94dc25e04534307c7fd2
BTC 6M bf25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:840811356a906c0ef3fc966a9f44c0cc9c5518aeb0a6211e4d27e1f712aa06d0
BTC 6M rr25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dedb10e9b52b136cfd47ecd7a0de314e45b40c4878186fdeb480e9c74cb9c084
BTC 6M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:cc86ff586dabbef74187d96145a858bf542d2f9950359556ca777280a2a8e8af
BTC 6M rr25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:422b3d056fa6cb0a84adc35105f18647d5c474012b241c17a367a9f362d3b13a
BTC 9M atmIvmove30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:ba9f89f47425d2ea246edc0f8965df054f25077acb3c6027fddb634c0d83faed
BTC 9M atmIvmoveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:b0f6d031a675a3277d1f474218de236d273e15eed047ba83b975c186b3e0fad7
BTC 9M atmIvlevelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:dedf690ae49f7cd0caa12364d831467df3925cdd7cf2d8d550e58c6f9cfb27dd
BTC 9M bf25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:a53864bdd8999b0196376c8fd950d6d2d7fa7d9f0cdf580757f15d82bc0a32ca
BTC 9M bf25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:3cbad6992d37d7bf4f310169d8d56cbbf7b9dce3553aafa929e47cfce6b90dda
BTC 9M bf25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:32e263850705bd42788af6c1f5b9f6103dbc8e538c642a73772bd1f57604d7e1
BTC 9M rr25move30d22 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-09-26 → 2026-10-26
2026-09-26T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:655b0cae0a898191cb4843f3d3c2645f5abbcd4087fdc7bdeb8da19541ebccca
BTC 9M rr25moveFullHistory42 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-31 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-31T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4cd9d28ff7cc5202bd5b17a776d224e7cce58a0408ba8afc2ddf92cb18c56907
BTC 9M rr25levelFullHistory51 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observations2026-08-29 → 2026-10-26
2026-08-29T17:31:00+00:00 → 2026-10-26T17:31:00+00:00		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:160ba6aaf5abb5c8e1d851995f2cc083c137dc26ee3f1ff0274fdebc13b76881
BTC 1Y atmIvmove30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvmoveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y atmIvlevelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y bf25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25move30d0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25moveFullHistory0 samples; 1 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945
BTC 1Y rr25levelFullHistory0 samples; 0 days; daily UTC observationsUnavailable → Unavailable
Exact start unavailable → Exact end unavailable		No period overlap in this cohort; source revision unknown; sha256:4f53cda18c2baa0c0354bb5f9a3ecbe5ed12ab4d8e11ba873c2f11161202b945

12 · Technical appendix

Model parameters and normalized Greeks.

These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.

Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks

SVI diagnostics

Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 24SEP27; the largest sigma change occurred at 30OCT26.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
28OCT26+0.01950-0.04140+0.01730+0.00870-0.06730rotation towards calls, wing steepening
29OCT26+0.02140-0.02430+0.09340+0.04240-0.09830rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30OCT26+0.02890-0.02240+0.04940+0.02710-0.14450rotation towards calls, wing steepening
6NOV26+0.01390-0.01510+0.00390-0.00980-0.02830rotation towards calls, wing steepening
13NOV26+0.00370-0.00690+0.02390+0.00800+0.00570rotation towards calls
27NOV26-0.01650+0.00060-0.14800-0.10200+0.08130rotation towards calls
25DEC26+0.02330-0.01490+0.02390+0.02440-0.04840parallel shift lower
26MAR27+0.01710-0.01240+0.01140+0.01310-0.02970parallel shift lower
25JUN27-0.02850+0.02230-0.06820-0.09450+0.04260parallel shift lower
24SEP27+0.02000+0.00980-0.15070-0.20750-0.04210parallel shift lower

Current surface characteristics

Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.

These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.

Highest Gamma28OCT26, 0.000547 1 / USD
Highest Theta Decay28OCT26, -241.044075 USD / day
Highest Vanna24SEP27, 0.001869 delta / vol pt
Highest Vega24SEP27, 316.663857 USD / vol pt
Highest Volga24SEP27, -0.280138 USD / vol pt²

7D realised volatility · data quality

AssetRecorded RVStatusCoverage / requiredLongest gap / maximum
BTC30.98%Available100% / 97% required0 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

RV coverage and methodology

BTC · Available · Surface cutoff 27 Oct 2026, 17:31:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 97% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.

24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 98% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 97% minimum; 0 min largest gap.

Source data JSON

13 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.

Current snapshot
27 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Comparison snapshot
26 Oct 2026, 17:31 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.

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