01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Bitcoin fell 1.76 per cent over the 24-hour window as the market continued to digest Kevin Warsh’s warning that inflation could require tighter policy. The options response was more nuanced than the spot move: one-week implied volatility fell 3.69 points to 32.85 per cent, while two-week risk reversal moved sharply towards puts. One-week implied volatility now sits below seven-day realised volatility but above the quieter 24-hour measure, leaving the curve steeper rather than uniformly subdued.
Bitcoin weakens while front-end volatility retreats
A softer Bitcoin price and more defensive short-dated skew arrived alongside a further fall in implied volatility, with the front of the curve repricing much more sharply than longer maturities.
Macro
The market continued to absorb Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole message that persistently high inflation could put US interest-rate increases back in play, a restrictive backdrop for risk assets.
Crypto
Bitcoin’s ETF-supported advance lost momentum after roughly $3bn of recent fund demand, while the token finished the report window lower and its short-dated options surface became cheaper and more put-rich.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -3.69 volatility points, to 32.85%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data03 · Catalyst check
28 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC to 29 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTCNo catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
At the 15:33 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 32.85%, 8.63 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 41.48%; 24-hour realised volatility was 27.80% and 30-day realised volatility was 35.64%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.65 volatility points to 34.11% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.78 volatility points to 41.24% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.43 volatility points to -1.27 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points to 2.24 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -3.69 volatility points at 1W, to 32.85%.
Universe roll: added 2SEP26; removed 29AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.