01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
Bitcoin ended the session below $80,000 as investors absorbed Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole address and a $6.4bn options expiry. The Federal Reserve chair offered little encouragement to those looking for an early easing signal, while the derivatives settlement removed a sizeable block of open interest. Against that backdrop, one-week implied volatility fell sharply and slipped below seven-day realised volatility, leaving the surface steeper rather than uniformly cheaper.
Warsh’s inflation warning lands as $6.4bn of Bitcoin options expire
The day’s two dominant threads arrived from different directions: a Federal Reserve chair unwilling to declare victory over inflation and one of the larger Bitcoin derivatives settlements of the year. Bitcoin’s response was uneven around $80,000, but the options market finished with a decisive fall in short-dated implied volatility.
Macro
At Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh said the Fed still had work to do on inflation and gave no steer towards near-term rate cuts, keeping the policy backdrop restrictive for risk assets.
Crypto
The $6.4bn Deribit expiry covered almost one-fifth of the exchange’s Bitcoin open interest. Earlier, Bitcoin had tracked a broader risk rally after Nvidia’s earnings, but it failed to hold a clean break above $80,000 into the policy speech and settlement.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -5.26 volatility points, to 36.57%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data03 · Catalyst check
27 Aug 2026, 15:29 UTC to 28 Aug 2026, 15:29 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market events
2 relevant events were retained for the comparison window.
News collection was incomplete; the retained events do not establish full coverage.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
At the 15:29 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 36.57%, 9.61 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 46.18%; 24-hour realised volatility was 39.25% and 30-day realised volatility was 35.91%.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -4.20 volatility points to 36.88% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.57 volatility points to 42.04% across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.99 volatility points to 0.19 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.40 volatility points to 2.21 volatility points across the six available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -5.26 volatility points at 1W, to 36.57%.
Universe roll: added 1SEP26; removed 28AUG26. Comparisons use common expiries only.