Current surface snapshot against the preceding 24-hour comparison snapshot.
BTC’s 4SEP26 smile rotation moved lower by 3.80 volatility points. Separately, one-month ATM IV rose 1.00 volatility points to 35.95%, a notable 76.7 percentile move, even as the nearest eligible BTC forward fell 1.35%. Front-end ATM IV rose while long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged.
BTC one-month ATM IV rose 1.00 volatility points while the nearest eligible BTC forward fell 1.35%.
Rate-hike expectations and oil prices were cited in market reporting.
Bitcoin market reporting described resilience amid the macro backdrop.
01 · Options Market Read
What the volatility surface did.
1M ATM IV rose 1.00 volatility points to 35.95%, a notable move at the 77th percentile. At the cutoff, realised volatility measured 33.67% over 24 hours, 35.17% over seven days and 36.40% over 30 days. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.70%, +0.48 points from the prior snapshot, while the long end averaged 41.03%, -0.09 points. The 1Y-minus-1W ATM slope flattened 0.09 points to 8.63 points. 1W RR25 moved 0.54 volatility points toward puts to 0.02%, leaving calls richer than puts. 2W BF25 rose 0.25 volatility points to 2.10%. The nearest eligible forward, 4SEP26, fell $1,064.49 (-1.35%) to $77,616.14. Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst; the strongest assessed relationship has low causal confidence.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
02 · Catalyst check
31 Aug 2026, 17:05 UTC to 01 Sept 2026, 17:04 UTC
Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 event was retained after relevance scoring and event-level deduplication.
Confidencelow causal confidence
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
51 canonical events scanned through the news MCP across 2 publishers. 2 fell inside the report window; 2 were BTC-tagged; 1 passed the final threshold; 1 event displayed.
03 · Detailed surface analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 17:04 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 33.41%, 1.76 volatility points below seven-day realised volatility of 35.17%; 24-hour realised volatility was 33.67% and 30-day realised volatility was 36.40%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +0.48 volatility points to 34.70% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.09 volatility points to 41.03% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.16 volatility points to -0.26% across the six headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 2.39% across the six headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +1.00 volatility points at 1M, to 35.95%.
Universe roll: added 5SEP26; removed 1SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
04 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
4SEP26, -3.80 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1M, +1.00 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -0.54 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, +0.25 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
25JUN27, -0.2163 param06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
27NOV26, +0.0815 param
05 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
33.41
33.53
-0.12 vol pts
-0.36%
2W
34.75
34.20
+0.55 vol pts
+1.61%
1M
35.95
34.95
+1.00 vol pts
+2.86%
3M
38.20
37.90
+0.30 vol pts
+0.79%
6M
40.02
39.99
+0.03 vol pts
+0.08%
9M
41.28
41.39
-0.11 vol pts
-0.27%
1Y
42.04
42.25
-0.21 vol pts
-0.50%
06 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.16 volatility points to -0.26% across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
0.02
0.56
-0.54 vol pts
2W
-0.04
0.33
-0.37 vol pts
1M
-0.48
-0.42
-0.06 vol pts
3M
-0.78
-0.68
-0.10 vol pts
6M
-0.48
-0.42
-0.06 vol pts
9M
-0.07
-0.16
+0.09 vol pts
1Y
0.18
0.00
+0.18 vol pts
07 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.16 volatility points to 2.39% across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.80
1.72
+0.08 vol pts
2W
2.10
1.85
+0.25 vol pts
1M
2.32
2.24
+0.08 vol pts
3M
2.40
2.18
+0.22 vol pts
6M
2.66
2.56
+0.10 vol pts
9M
2.87
2.72
+0.15 vol pts
1Y
3.04
2.80
+0.24 vol pts
08 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.6d
Smile rotation
2SEP26, -16.59 vol pts1.6d
Smile rotation
3SEP26, -7.88 vol pts
09 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
2SEP26Expiry effect
0.6 days
77,600.12
-1072.11 USD
31.67%
+0.63 vol pts
-2.92 vol pts
-0.22 vol pts
3SEP26Expiry effect
1.6 days
77,605.57
-1077.10 USD
31.25%
-2.01 vol pts
-2.05 vol pts
+0.05 vol pts
4SEP26
2.6 days
77,616.14
-1064.49 USD
32.46%
-1.49 vol pts
-1.28 vol pts
0.00 vol pts
11SEP26
9.6 days
77,673.35
-1056.46 USD
33.34%
-0.03 vol pts
-0.43 vol pts
+0.17 vol pts
18SEP26
16.6 days
77,732.29
-1071.32 USD
35.22%
+0.50 vol pts
-0.31 vol pts
+0.21 vol pts
25SEP26
23.6 days
77,773.99
-1075.27 USD
35.65%
+1.05 vol pts
-0.07 vol pts
+0.05 vol pts
30OCT26
58.6 days
78,157.35
-1084.11 USD
36.49%
+0.75 vol pts
+0.06 vol pts
+0.08 vol pts
27NOV26
86.6 days
78,469.78
-1096.82 USD
38.05%
+0.29 vol pts
-0.09 vol pts
+0.23 vol pts
25DEC26
114.6 days
78,790.39
-1104.21 USD
38.80%
+0.16 vol pts
-0.19 vol pts
+0.13 vol pts
26MAR27
205.6 days
79,680.86
-1114.69 USD
40.26%
0.00 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
+0.08 vol pts
25JUN27
296.6 days
80,654.92
-1169.76 USD
41.52%
-0.15 vol pts
+0.12 vol pts
+0.18 vol pts
10 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
2SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening3SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening4SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening11SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening18SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening25SEP26parallel shift higher30OCT26parallel shift higher27NOV26parallel shift higher25DEC26parallel shift higher26MAR27limited movement25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
2SEP26
3SEP26
4SEP26
11SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
30OCT26
27NOV26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
11 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 27NOV26; the largest sigma change occurred at 25JUN27.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
2SEP26
+0.01200
-0.02030
-0.13650
-0.06070
-0.01370
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
3SEP26
+0.01510
-0.01030
+0.00250
+0.01400
-0.10700
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
4SEP26
+0.00500
-0.00350
+0.03900
+0.02640
-0.03410
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
11SEP26
+0.00430
+0.00070
+0.02990
+0.03200
-0.03990
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
18SEP26
+0.00700
-0.00470
+0.05050
+0.04090
-0.03910
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25SEP26
+0.00020
-0.00440
+0.05280
+0.02810
+0.00920
parallel shift higher
30OCT26
-0.02430
+0.02200
+0.00650
-0.01190
+0.06400
parallel shift higher
27NOV26
+0.00910
-0.00820
+0.08150
+0.08640
-0.03550
parallel shift higher
25DEC26
+0.03160
-0.02410
+0.06240
+0.08970
-0.06900
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
+0.04860
-0.02780
+0.05090
+0.07250
-0.09450
limited movement
25JUN27
+0.10610
-0.04300
-0.00470
+0.01660
-0.21630
parallel shift lower
12 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
BTC’s 4SEP26 smile rotation moved lower by 3.80 volatility points. Separately, one-month ATM IV rose 1.00 volatility points to 35.95%, a notable 76.7 percentile move, even as the nearest eligible BTC forward fell 1.35%. Front-end ATM IV rose while long-dated ATM IV was broadly unchanged.
BTC month volatility firms amid spot weakness
BTC one-month ATM IV rose 1.00 volatility points while the nearest eligible BTC forward fell 1.35%.
Macro
Rate-hike expectations and oil prices were cited in market reporting.
Crypto
Bitcoin market reporting described resilience amid the macro backdrop.
Editorial summaries are grounded in canonical events returned by the local news MCP. Links identify the underlying reporting; events are context, not assigned causes.
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against US equity risk.
Previous session (latest completed): BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.25 volatility points against VIX at 14.92 volatility points. Crypto and SPX realised volatility use different annualisation clocks.
Implied-volatility premium
BTC 30-day ATM IV was 35.25%, against VIX at 14.92: a 20.33-point spread and 2.36× ratio.
Realised-volatility regime
BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 43.77%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 9.47%. The spread ranked at 74.1 percentile of 224 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.101 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.387 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 12.34, 14.92 and 17.53.
As of 31 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC. Latest completed common session. Crypto realised volatility is annualised using sqrt(365); SPX realised volatility is annualised using sqrt(252).
13 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
Current snapshot
01 Sept 2026, 17:04 UTC
Comparison snapshot
31 Aug 2026, 17:05 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
