01 · Executive summary
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -1.47 volatility points across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.40 volatility points across 6M and 1Y.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.26 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points across the six headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.16 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 18MAY26, 5JUN26; removed 14MAY26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
02 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
Largest eligible smile rotation
17MAY26, -5.05 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -2.16 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, -0.95 vol ptsLargest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, +0.41 vol ptsLargest eligible SVI sigma move
26JUN26, -0.2202 paramLargest eligible SVI rho move
29MAY26, -0.1956 param03 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 34.36 | 36.52 | -2.16 vol pts | -5.91% |
| 2W | 35.83 | 37.36 | -1.53 vol pts | -4.10% |
| 1M | 37.32 | 38.03 | -0.71 vol pts | -1.87% |
| 3M | 39.33 | 39.76 | -0.43 vol pts | -1.08% |
| 6M | 42.16 | 42.63 | -0.47 vol pts | -1.10% |
| 9M | 43.73 | 44.14 | -0.41 vol pts | -0.93% |
| 1Y | 44.50 | 44.82 | -0.32 vol pts | -0.71% |
04 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 2W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.26 volatility points across the six headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | -3.74 | -3.35 | -0.39 vol pts |
| 2W | -4.96 | -4.01 | -0.95 vol pts |
| 1M | -4.47 | -4.46 | -0.01 vol pts |
| 3M | -4.26 | -4.49 | +0.23 vol pts |
| 6M | -4.55 | -4.43 | -0.12 vol pts |
| 9M | -4.48 | -4.22 | -0.26 vol pts |
| 1Y | -4.30 | -4.00 | -0.30 vol pts |
05 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.02 volatility points across the six headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
| Tenor | Current (vol %) | Previous (vol %) | Change (vol pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1W | 2.00 | 1.59 | +0.41 vol pts |
| 2W | 1.96 | 1.89 | +0.07 vol pts |
| 1M | 2.03 | 2.08 | -0.05 vol pts |
| 3M | 2.00 | 2.05 | -0.05 vol pts |
| 6M | 2.31 | 2.35 | -0.04 vol pts |
| 9M | 2.32 | 2.44 | -0.12 vol pts |
| 1Y | 2.22 | 2.44 | -0.22 vol pts |
06 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Smile rotation
15MAY26, -12.11 vol ptsSmile rotation
16MAY26, -9.96 vol pts07 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
The ATM chart above is the standard-tenor term structure. The listed-expiry table below preserves the exchange maturity detail underneath those interpolated tenors.
| Expiry | Time left | Forward now (USD) | Forward change (USD) | ATM IV now | ATM IV change | RR25 change | BF25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15MAY26Expiry effect | 0.3 days | 81,055.58 | +1748.39 USD | 34.68% | -3.90 vol pts | -0.93 vol pts | -0.59 vol pts |
| 16MAY26Expiry effect | 1.3 days | 81,030.61 | +1724.33 USD | 34.64% | -3.77 vol pts | -1.21 vol pts | -0.09 vol pts |
| 17MAY26 | 2.3 days | 81,038.41 | +1731.53 USD | 28.94% | -5.41 vol pts | -0.45 vol pts | -0.03 vol pts |
| 22MAY26 | 7.3 days | 81,050.99 | +1746.90 USD | 34.54% | -2.28 vol pts | -0.31 vol pts | +0.39 vol pts |
| 29MAY26 | 14.3 days | 81,061.33 | +1745.73 USD | 35.86% | -1.57 vol pts | -0.91 vol pts | +0.05 vol pts |
| 26JUN26 | 42.3 days | 81,198.59 | +1752.94 USD | 37.82% | -0.40 vol pts | +0.10 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
| 31JUL26 | 77.3 days | 81,359.5 | +1721.38 USD | 38.75% | -0.45 vol pts | +0.32 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
| 25SEP26 | 133.3 days | 81,764.38 | +1724.17 USD | 40.35% | -0.50 vol pts | +0.06 vol pts | -0.06 vol pts |
| 25DEC26 | 224.3 days | 82,499.13 | +1725.89 USD | 43.06% | -0.50 vol pts | -0.23 vol pts | -0.03 vol pts |
| 26MAR27 | 315.3 days | 83,222.6 | +1772.10 USD | 44.14% | -0.37 vol pts | -0.29 vol pts | -0.17 vol pts |
08 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
09 · SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 29MAY26; the largest sigma change occurred at 26JUN26.
| Expiry | Δ a | Δ b | Δ rho | Δ m | Δ sigma | Smile classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15MAY26 | +0.02060 | -0.03590 | -0.12960 | -0.04470 | -0.09100 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 16MAY26 | +0.01010 | -0.00950 | -0.20280 | -0.08380 | -0.06570 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 17MAY26 | +0.01070 | -0.00540 | -0.18750 | -0.08060 | -0.09100 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 22MAY26 | -0.02300 | +0.03230 | -0.12810 | -0.08150 | +0.02970 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 29MAY26 | -0.03750 | +0.02380 | -0.19560 | -0.08410 | +0.16070 | rotation towards puts, wing steepening |
| 26JUN26 | +0.08840 | -0.05140 | +0.04580 | +0.04990 | -0.22020 | parallel shift lower |
| 31JUL26 | +0.00280 | -0.00170 | -0.09880 | -0.12020 | +0.00390 | parallel shift lower |
| 25SEP26 | -0.02120 | +0.00840 | -0.06590 | -0.08710 | +0.05270 | parallel shift lower |
| 25DEC26 | -0.01110 | +0.00120 | +0.05980 | +0.08180 | +0.00750 | parallel shift lower |
| 26MAR27 | -0.01400 | -0.00480 | +0.03560 | +0.06920 | +0.04450 | parallel shift lower |
10 · Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
11 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
- Current snapshot
- 14 May 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Comparison snapshot
- 13 May 2026, 23:59 UTC
- Source
- Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
- Comparison window
- Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
- RR convention
- 25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
- BF convention
- Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
- Fixed tenors
- Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
- Smile reconstruction
- Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
- Ultra-short expiries
- Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
- Greek normalization
- Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
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