BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 1.82 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.43 volatility points, RR25 -1.18 volatility points and BF25 +0.24 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 35.75%1W RR25 -5.81 vol pts1W BF25 +2.21 vol pts1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
Market context · daily observation window
Market context
BTC spot-index return unavailable; 1W ATM IV rose 1.82 volatility points to 35.75% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward puts (-0.93 points); BF25 wing premium increased (+0.37 points); partial native coverage (3/4 measurements).
Previous report, watch levels and methodology
One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 15 May, 23:59 UTC to 16 May, 23:59 UTC.
Measured change since prior report
Against the 2026-05-15 daily edition.
BTC 1W ATM IV: prior change -0.43 → current change +1.82 volatility points; direction reversed.
BTC 1W RR25: prior change -1.14 → current change -0.93 volatility points; same direction.
BTC 1W BF25: prior change -0.16 → current change +0.37 volatility points; direction reversed.
A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; this compares measured changes only.
Next daily cutoff: measurable checks
These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.
Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 35.75 percent at . Current level 35.75; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 33.93 percent at . Current level 35.75; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt
These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.18 volatility points to -6.21 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.24 volatility points to 2.42 volatility points across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
Smile rotation
17MAY26, -28.81 vol pts1.3d
Smile rotation
18MAY26, -10.28 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
17MAY26Expiry effect
0.3 days
78,141.1
-925.67 USD
23.50%
+7.06 vol pts
-4.04 vol pts
-0.46 vol pts
18MAY26Expiry effect
1.3 days
78,127.95
-927.12 USD
31.48%
+7.42 vol pts
-1.12 vol pts
-0.46 vol pts
19MAY26
2.3 days
78,128.53
-939.02 USD
32.52%
+3.79 vol pts
-1.37 vol pts
+0.31 vol pts
22MAY26
5.3 days
78,126.87
-935.65 USD
35.60%
+2.02 vol pts
-0.42 vol pts
+0.36 vol pts
29MAY26
12.3 days
78,142.7
-930.38 USD
35.95%
+0.47 vol pts
-1.10 vol pts
+0.30 vol pts
5JUN26
19.3 days
78,147.41
-949.40 USD
36.74%
+0.25 vol pts
-2.35 vol pts
+0.69 vol pts
26JUN26
40.3 days
78,217.11
-957.28 USD
37.53%
0.00 vol pts
-1.44 vol pts
+0.18 vol pts
31JUL26
75.3 days
78,375.95
-961.65 USD
38.53%
+0.05 vol pts
-1.79 vol pts
+0.21 vol pts
25SEP26
131.3 days
78,759.05
-964.03 USD
40.25%
+0.10 vol pts
-1.05 vol pts
+0.17 vol pts
25DEC26
222.3 days
79,464.2
-987.38 USD
42.98%
-0.17 vol pts
-0.77 vol pts
+0.15 vol pts
26MAR27
313.3 days
80,127.2
-991.20 USD
43.97%
-0.04 vol pts
-0.62 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
17MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening18MAY26rotation towards puts · wing flattening19MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening22MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening29MAY26rotation towards puts · wing steepening5JUN26rotation towards puts · wing steepening26JUN26rotation towards puts31JUL26rotation towards puts25SEP26rotation towards puts25DEC26rotation towards puts26MAR27limited movement
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
17MAY26
18MAY26
19MAY26
22MAY26
29MAY26
5JUN26
26JUN26
31JUL26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-05-15 23:59:00 UTC → 2026-05-16 23:59:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Original report summary
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.43 volatility points, RR25 -1.18 volatility points and BF25 +0.24 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 35.75% · Δ +1.82 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -5.81 vol pts · Δ -0.93 vol pts
Wings: BTC 1W BF25 2.21 vol pts · Δ +0.37 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 35.75% · Δ +1.82 vol pts
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -5.81 vol pts · Δ -0.93 vol pts
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 2.21 vol pts · Δ +0.37 vol pts
IV versus RV
BTC Unavailable
Unavailable readings: BTC IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 5JUN26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
17MAY26
-0.06420
+0.03320
-0.09800
-0.09980
+0.66350
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
18MAY26
-0.03810
+0.03280
-0.13310
-0.07940
+0.35270
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
19MAY26
+0.00480
-0.00280
-0.08700
-0.03000
-0.03470
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
22MAY26
+0.00240
+0.00400
-0.01020
-0.00930
-0.04120
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
29MAY26
0.00000
+0.00590
+0.00520
+0.00300
-0.02740
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
5JUN26
+0.03530
-0.00550
-0.04060
-0.00650
-0.19160
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
26JUN26
-0.04730
+0.03770
+0.03880
+0.04220
+0.10350
rotation towards puts
31JUL26
-0.01360
+0.01810
+0.11350
+0.12090
-0.01940
rotation towards puts
25SEP26
-0.03960
+0.02710
+0.13430
+0.13540
+0.04280
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.01640
+0.00310
+0.04450
+0.07440
-0.08540
rotation towards puts
26MAR27
-0.01220
+0.00800
+0.02720
+0.06140
-0.00420
limited movement
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 16 May 2026, 23:59:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
