BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV rises 2.59 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +0.40 volatility points, RR25 +0.33 volatility points and BF25 +0.01 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.59 volatility points, to 57.38%.
03 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.08 volatility points to 51.29% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.30 volatility points to 44.53% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.33 volatility points to -7.12% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points to 3.56% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.59 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: added 11JUN26; removed 7JUN26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
10JUN26, -17.08 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, +2.59 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1Y, +0.98 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
1M, +0.15 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI rho move
10JUN26, -0.0925 param06
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
10JUN26, +0.0674 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
57.38
54.79
+2.59 vol pts
+4.73%
2W
50.62
49.97
+0.65 vol pts
+1.30%
1M
45.88
45.87
+0.01 vol pts
+0.02%
3M
43.41
43.64
-0.23 vol pts
-0.53%
6M
44.08
44.65
-0.57 vol pts
-1.28%
9M
44.65
44.91
-0.26 vol pts
-0.58%
1Y
44.98
45.01
-0.03 vol pts
-0.07%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1Y.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.33 volatility points to -7.12% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-11.11
-11.51
+0.40 vol pts
2W
-9.38
-9.27
-0.11 vol pts
1M
-8.08
-7.53
-0.55 vol pts
3M
-6.14
-6.78
+0.64 vol pts
6M
-4.83
-5.43
+0.60 vol pts
9M
-3.80
-4.63
+0.83 vol pts
1Y
-3.17
-4.15
+0.98 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1M.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points to 3.56% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
5.05
5.07
-0.02 vol pts
2W
4.28
4.33
-0.05 vol pts
1M
3.46
3.31
+0.15 vol pts
3M
2.84
2.76
+0.08 vol pts
6M
2.87
2.83
+0.04 vol pts
9M
2.88
2.93
-0.05 vol pts
1Y
2.87
2.99
-0.12 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
1.3d
Smile rotation
9JUN26, -21.14 vol pts0.3d
ATM IV change
8JUN26, +8.81 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
8JUN26Expiry effect
0.3 days
63,250.04
+2388.07 USD
68.04%
+8.81 vol pts
+2.18 vol pts
-1.74 vol pts
9JUN26Expiry effect
1.3 days
63,252.27
+2387.50 USD
78.23%
+17.18 vol pts
-4.63 vol pts
-0.63 vol pts
10JUN26
2.3 days
63,254.61
+2387.03 USD
73.60%
+15.20 vol pts
-5.48 vol pts
+0.42 vol pts
12JUN26
4.3 days
63,262.61
+2377.90 USD
64.45%
+7.00 vol pts
+0.08 vol pts
+0.22 vol pts
19JUN26
11.3 days
63,271.36
+2380.21 USD
52.51%
+1.63 vol pts
-0.21 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
26JUN26
18.3 days
63,288.13
+2378.30 USD
48.65%
+0.58 vol pts
-0.78 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
31JUL26
53.3 days
63,464.63
+2348.53 USD
43.88%
-0.12 vol pts
-0.41 vol pts
+0.21 vol pts
28AUG26
81.3 days
63,649.01
+2335.69 USD
43.38%
-0.15 vol pts
+0.57 vol pts
+0.07 vol pts
25SEP26
109.3 days
63,839.11
+2335.30 USD
43.46%
-0.36 vol pts
+0.68 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
25DEC26
200.3 days
64,508.61
+2313.20 USD
44.17%
-0.60 vol pts
+0.58 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
26MAR27
291.3 days
65,202.54
+2305.78 USD
44.73%
-0.21 vol pts
+0.86 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
8JUN26rotation towards puts · wing steepening9JUN26rotation towards puts · wing flattening10JUN26rotation towards puts · wing flattening12JUN26parallel shift higher · wing steepening19JUN26parallel shift higher · rotation towards puts26JUN26rotation towards puts31JUL26rotation towards puts28AUG26rotation towards calls25SEP26rotation towards calls25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
8JUN26
9JUN26
10JUN26
12JUN26
19JUN26
26JUN26
31JUL26
28AUG26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 10JUN26; the largest sigma change occurred at 10JUN26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
8JUN26
-0.04210
+0.00640
-0.12470
-0.15220
+0.38780
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
9JUN26
-0.01600
-0.01310
-0.13600
-0.09450
+0.17910
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
10JUN26
-0.00480
-0.00810
-0.09250
-0.03340
+0.06740
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
12JUN26
-0.00610
+0.00220
-0.01240
-0.01190
+0.03360
parallel shift higher, wing steepening
19JUN26
+0.00050
-0.00230
-0.04220
-0.02020
+0.00430
parallel shift higher, rotation towards puts
26JUN26
+0.00420
-0.00430
-0.04740
-0.01880
-0.01280
rotation towards puts
31JUL26
+0.00170
+0.00750
+0.01650
+0.00120
-0.03360
rotation towards puts
28AUG26
-0.00420
+0.00270
-0.00750
-0.02060
+0.01190
rotation towards calls
25SEP26
-0.02290
+0.01380
-0.04490
-0.06120
+0.04870
rotation towards calls
25DEC26
+0.00700
-0.00460
-0.06700
-0.09070
-0.01090
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
-0.00160
-0.00620
-0.06100
-0.09520
+0.03160
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
