BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV falls 3.11 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged -1.13 volatility points, RR25 +0.09 volatility points and BF25 -0.13 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -3.11 volatility points, to 37.18%.
03 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.08 volatility points to 37.14% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.17 volatility points to 42.37% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to -6.47% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.13 volatility points to 2.73% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -3.11 volatility points at 1W.
Universe roll: no additions; removed 22JUN26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
1W, -3.11 vol pts02
Largest eligible smile rotation
26JUN26, +1.67 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
2W, +0.98 vol pts04
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
1W, -0.49 vol pts05
Largest eligible SVI rho move
25JUN26, -0.1637 param06
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
3JUL26, +0.1331 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
37.18
40.29
-3.11 vol pts
-7.72%
2W
36.95
38.88
-1.93 vol pts
-4.96%
1M
37.30
38.51
-1.21 vol pts
-3.14%
3M
38.76
38.96
-0.20 vol pts
-0.51%
6M
41.63
41.77
-0.14 vol pts
-0.34%
9M
42.62
42.81
-0.19 vol pts
-0.44%
1Y
43.11
43.32
-0.21 vol pts
-0.48%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 2W.
RR25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.09 volatility points to -6.47% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-6.90
-7.83
+0.93 vol pts
2W
-7.63
-8.61
+0.98 vol pts
1M
-7.65
-7.93
+0.28 vol pts
3M
-6.88
-6.19
-0.69 vol pts
6M
-5.56
-4.92
-0.64 vol pts
9M
-4.67
-4.23
-0.44 vol pts
1Y
-4.22
-3.87
-0.35 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 1W.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.13 volatility points to 2.73% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
2.38
2.87
-0.49 vol pts
2W
2.41
2.85
-0.44 vol pts
1M
2.57
2.77
-0.20 vol pts
3M
2.84
2.77
+0.07 vol pts
6M
3.02
2.86
+0.16 vol pts
9M
3.13
2.97
+0.16 vol pts
1Y
3.18
3.05
+0.13 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
Smile rotation
23JUN26, -26.39 vol pts1.3d
ATM IV change
24JUN26, -5.90 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
23JUN26Expiry effect
0.3 days
63,952.81
+726.30 USD
38.44%
-7.27 vol pts
-0.26 vol pts
-1.40 vol pts
24JUN26Expiry effect
1.3 days
63,964.44
+729.22 USD
37.47%
-5.90 vol pts
+2.63 vol pts
-1.37 vol pts
25JUN26
2.3 days
63,967.79
+745.93 USD
36.64%
-5.71 vol pts
+1.80 vol pts
-1.00 vol pts
26JUN26
3.3 days
63,957.69
+739.91 USD
37.37%
-4.73 vol pts
+1.58 vol pts
-0.56 vol pts
3JUL26
10.3 days
63,991.56
+732.32 USD
37.12%
-2.00 vol pts
+1.40 vol pts
-0.54 vol pts
10JUL26
17.3 days
64,025.43
+722.63 USD
36.86%
-1.78 vol pts
+0.56 vol pts
-0.32 vol pts
31JUL26
38.3 days
64,139.22
+708.88 USD
37.43%
-1.03 vol pts
+0.16 vol pts
-0.18 vol pts
28AUG26
66.3 days
64,347.12
+699.04 USD
38.18%
-0.26 vol pts
-0.37 vol pts
-0.07 vol pts
25SEP26
94.3 days
64,559.53
+688.81 USD
38.81%
-0.22 vol pts
-0.74 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
25DEC26
185.3 days
65,199.7
+677.05 USD
41.68%
-0.16 vol pts
-0.64 vol pts
+0.18 vol pts
26MAR27
276.3 days
65,892.28
+678.99 USD
42.64%
-0.20 vol pts
-0.44 vol pts
+0.16 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
23JUN26rotation towards puts · wing steepening24JUN26rotation towards calls · wing steepening25JUN26rotation towards puts · wing steepening26JUN26rotation towards calls · wing steepening3JUL26parallel shift lower · rotation towards calls10JUL26parallel shift lower31JUL26parallel shift lower28AUG26rotation towards puts25SEP26rotation towards puts25DEC26rotation towards puts26MAR27limited movement
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
23JUN26
24JUN26
25JUN26
26JUN26
3JUL26
10JUL26
31JUL26
28AUG26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25JUN26; the largest sigma change occurred at 3JUL26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
23JUN26
-0.06230
-0.00790
+0.02520
-0.13610
+0.77560
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
24JUN26
-0.00800
-0.00970
-0.10020
-0.08310
+0.13440
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
25JUN26
-0.01370
+0.00400
-0.16370
-0.11340
+0.12390
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
26JUN26
-0.01640
+0.01070
-0.10350
-0.07250
+0.08980
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
3JUL26
-0.02290
+0.01320
-0.08080
-0.05120
+0.13310
parallel shift lower, rotation towards calls
10JUL26
-0.00630
-0.00100
+0.01770
+0.00580
+0.04150
parallel shift lower
31JUL26
-0.00510
+0.00310
+0.03790
+0.02090
+0.01660
parallel shift lower
28AUG26
-0.00030
-0.00070
+0.03590
+0.03330
-0.00200
rotation towards puts
25SEP26
-0.01260
+0.01050
-0.01030
+0.00370
+0.01580
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.02990
-0.00420
-0.03300
-0.00290
-0.08050
rotation towards puts
26MAR27
+0.00170
+0.01640
-0.07370
-0.06680
-0.03620
limited movement
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
