BTC daily surface: 2W ATM IV rises 2.22 volatility points
Across the six available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged +1.12 volatility points, RR25 -0.43 volatility points and BF25 +0.03 volatility points between the stored endpoints.
6 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at +2.22 volatility points, to 36.17%.
03 · Catalyst check
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was identified after a healthy coverage check.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.93 volatility points to 36.38% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Long-dated ATM IV increased, averaging +0.29 volatility points to 42.44% across 6M and 1Y.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.43 volatility points to -6.04% across the six available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 2.35% across the six available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.22 volatility points at 2W.
Universe roll: added 11JUL26; removed 7JUL26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
10JUL26, -9.89 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
2W, +2.22 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -1.49 vol pts04
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
25DEC26, -0.2067 param05
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
2W, -0.16 vol pts06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
25DEC26, +0.0741 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
36.63
34.43
+2.20 vol pts
+6.39%
2W
36.17
33.95
+2.22 vol pts
+6.54%
1M
36.35
34.99
+1.36 vol pts
+3.89%
3M
38.88
38.49
+0.39 vol pts
+1.01%
6M
41.58
41.31
+0.27 vol pts
+0.65%
9M
42.61
42.36
+0.25 vol pts
+0.59%
1Y
43.30
42.99
+0.31 vol pts
+0.72%
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.43 volatility points to -6.04% across the six available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-6.03
-4.54
-1.49 vol pts
2W
-5.87
-5.53
-0.34 vol pts
1M
-6.25
-6.18
-0.07 vol pts
3M
-6.70
-6.40
-0.30 vol pts
6M
-6.06
-5.73
-0.33 vol pts
9M
-5.65
-5.40
-0.25 vol pts
1Y
-5.34
-5.27
-0.07 vol pts
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 2W.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.03 volatility points to 2.35% across the six available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.87
1.84
+0.03 vol pts
2W
1.83
1.99
-0.16 vol pts
1M
2.27
2.26
+0.01 vol pts
3M
2.68
2.60
+0.08 vol pts
6M
2.86
2.75
+0.11 vol pts
9M
2.75
2.72
+0.03 vol pts
1Y
2.60
2.51
+0.09 vol pts
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.3d
Smile rotation
8JUL26, -17.42 vol pts1.3d
Smile rotation
9JUL26, -5.83 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
8JUL26Expiry effect
0.3 days
63,300.21
-699.69 USD
37.92%
+5.26 vol pts
-0.78 vol pts
-1.10 vol pts
9JUL26Expiry effect
1.3 days
63,307.47
-697.65 USD
39.95%
+4.80 vol pts
+0.11 vol pts
-0.89 vol pts
10JUL26
2.3 days
63,312.9
-697.68 USD
37.48%
+2.56 vol pts
-2.32 vol pts
+0.06 vol pts
17JUL26
9.3 days
63,343.97
-713.03 USD
36.57%
+2.28 vol pts
-1.04 vol pts
+0.06 vol pts
24JUL26
16.3 days
63,376.79
-714.93 USD
36.05%
+2.29 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
-0.26 vol pts
31JUL26
23.3 days
63,409.61
-713.02 USD
36.03%
+1.74 vol pts
+0.11 vol pts
-0.07 vol pts
28AUG26
51.3 days
63,594.54
-720.10 USD
36.82%
+0.57 vol pts
-0.26 vol pts
+0.10 vol pts
25SEP26
79.3 days
63,778.26
-721.82 USD
38.06%
+0.34 vol pts
-0.32 vol pts
+0.08 vol pts
25DEC26
170.3 days
64,391.94
-734.74 USD
41.37%
+0.26 vol pts
-0.34 vol pts
+0.12 vol pts
26MAR27
261.3 days
65,026.26
-746.42 USD
42.48%
+0.22 vol pts
-0.29 vol pts
+0.03 vol pts
25JUN27
352.3 days
65,660.58
-756.83 USD
43.23%
+0.30 vol pts
-0.08 vol pts
+0.08 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
8JUL26rotation towards puts · wing flattening9JUL26rotation towards puts · wing flattening10JUL26rotation towards puts · wing steepening17JUL26rotation towards puts · wing flattening24JUL26rotation towards puts · wing flattening31JUL26parallel shift higher28AUG26parallel shift higher25SEP26parallel shift higher25DEC26parallel shift higher26MAR27parallel shift higher25JUN27parallel shift higher
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
8JUL26
9JUL26
10JUL26
17JUL26
24JUL26
31JUL26
28AUG26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25DEC26; the largest sigma change occurred at 25DEC26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
8JUL26
-0.05540
-0.00220
-0.03310
-0.03550
+0.89180
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
9JUL26
-0.02800
-0.01510
-0.05130
-0.04080
+0.50050
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
10JUL26
+0.03750
-0.04430
-0.05080
-0.00420
-0.18440
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
17JUL26
+0.02410
-0.02820
-0.04980
-0.00990
-0.09960
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
24JUL26
-0.01450
-0.00250
-0.04310
-0.00640
+0.12230
rotation towards puts, wing flattening
31JUL26
-0.00360
-0.00320
-0.04410
-0.01780
+0.04230
parallel shift higher
28AUG26
+0.01140
-0.01180
-0.07140
-0.03400
-0.03610
parallel shift higher
25SEP26
+0.01120
-0.00760
-0.02670
-0.01110
-0.03030
parallel shift higher
25DEC26
+0.11010
-0.06710
+0.07410
+0.16190
-0.20670
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
+0.05720
-0.04120
+0.05820
+0.12630
-0.08250
parallel shift higher
25JUN27
+0.02270
-0.00020
-0.01600
-0.00480
-0.05150
parallel shift higher
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
