BTCSpot-index 24h Unavailable1W ATM IV 35.43%1W RR25 -3.65 vol pts1W BF25 Unavailable1W IV − 7D RV Unavailable
Market context · daily observation window
Market context
BTC spot-index return unavailable; 1W ATM IV rose 0.73 volatility points to 35.43% over the daily window. RR25 moved toward puts (-1.34 points); partial native coverage (3/4 measurements).
Previous report, watch levels and methodology
One-week surface context; the published headline retains its original evidence basis. Cutoffs 27 Jul, 21:48 UTC to 28 Jul, 21:48 UTC.
Measured change since prior report
Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-07-27 edition is verified but ends at 27 Jul, 17:17 UTC; this window requires 27 Jul, 21:48 UTC.
A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.
Next daily cutoff: measurable checks
These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.
Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 35.43 percent at . Current level 35.43; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 34.70 percent at . Current level 35.43; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt
These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.
RR25 is unavailable because comparable observations were not present at both snapshots. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.4d
Smile rotation
29JUL26, +8.98 vol pts1.4d
Smile rotation
30JUL26, -3.67 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
29JUL26Expiry effect
0.4 days
63,950.11
-809.64 USD
32.04%
+0.92 vol pts
+1.65 vol pts
Unavailable
30JUL26Expiry effect
1.4 days
63,967.13
-808.75 USD
38.58%
+2.61 vol pts
-0.84 vol pts
Unavailable
31JUL26
2.4 days
63,976.4
-797.93 USD
38.43%
+1.73 vol pts
-0.04 vol pts
Unavailable
7AUG26
9.4 days
64,028.61
-812.51 USD
35.03%
+0.99 vol pts
-1.45 vol pts
Unavailable
14AUG26
16.4 days
64,080.83
-808.73 USD
34.91%
+0.32 vol pts
-1.34 vol pts
Unavailable
28AUG26
30.4 days
64,186.23
-802.99 USD
34.83%
+0.26 vol pts
-1.01 vol pts
Unavailable
25SEP26
58.4 days
64,379.67
-836.38 USD
36.10%
+0.01 vol pts
-0.75 vol pts
Unavailable
25DEC26
149.4 days
65,038.7
-853.75 USD
39.74%
-0.29 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
Unavailable
26MAR27
240.4 days
65,689.51
-858.62 USD
41.07%
-0.17 vol pts
-0.19 vol pts
Unavailable
25JUN27
331.4 days
66,338.3
-873.21 USD
42.05%
-0.15 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
Unavailable
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
29JUL26rotation towards calls · wing steepening30JUL26rotation towards puts · wing steepening31JUL26wing steepening7AUG26rotation towards puts · wing steepening14AUG26rotation towards puts28AUG26rotation towards puts25SEP26rotation towards puts25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
29JUL26
30JUL26
31JUL26
7AUG26
14AUG26
28AUG26
25SEP26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-07-27 21:48:00 UTC → 2026-07-28 21:48:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Reader summary (BF-specific claims withheld)
Front-end ATM IV increased while long-dated IV eased; RR25 moved toward puts, with the largest ATM move at 1W.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 35.43% · Δ +0.73 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 -3.65 vol pts · Δ -1.34 vol pts
Curve: BTC 1Y minus 1W ATM IV spread +6.85 vol pts · spread Δ -0.87 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 35.43% · Δ +0.73 vol ptspercentile rank 36.7% by absolute move · 30-day window (n=30)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 -3.65 vol pts · Δ -1.34 vol ptspercentile rank 78.9% by absolute move · full history (n=95)
Wings
BTC Unavailable
IV versus RV
BTC Unavailable
Unavailable readings: BTC Wings; BTC IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 78.9% by absolute move · full history (n=95)
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 7AUG26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
29JUL26
-0.03030
-0.02630
+0.06420
-0.00600
+0.68710
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
30JUL26
+0.01400
-0.00480
+0.03460
+0.03360
-0.12300
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
31JUL26
+0.00520
+0.00200
+0.01510
+0.01020
-0.05370
wing steepening
7AUG26
+0.02910
-0.01600
-0.02310
-0.01210
-0.13210
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
14AUG26
+0.01400
-0.01060
+0.00720
+0.01310
-0.05410
rotation towards puts
28AUG26
+0.01290
-0.01000
+0.00650
+0.01190
-0.05120
rotation towards puts
25SEP26
+0.03830
-0.02990
+0.04950
+0.05980
-0.10070
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.02780
-0.02050
-0.00990
+0.00890
-0.03880
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
+0.00750
-0.01690
+0.01390
+0.02910
+0.01000
parallel shift lower
25JUN27
+0.03100
-0.03020
+0.02460
+0.05390
-0.02970
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 28 Jul 2026, 21:48:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Fixed-tenor measures are interpolated independently at 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M and 1Y; headline rankings prioritise 1W, 2W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
