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Weekly BTC options market report · 168-hour comparison

Bitcoin options grow more defensive as volatility eases across maturities

Across the five available headline tenors, ATM IV averaged -0.67 volatility points, RR25 -1.31 volatility points and BF25 +0.01 volatility points between the stored endpoints.

By Sean Gordon — Derivasys Research

Published · Window 5 Sept 2026–12 Sept 2026

Lead chart

BTC ATM implied-volatility term structure

32.6%35.0%37.5%39.9%42.4%1W2W1M3M6M9M

Week-end surface snapshot against the week-opening comparison snapshot.

Bitcoin’s two-week RR25 fell 1.87 volatility points to -0.50% during the week, leaving relative put-side volatility above call-side volatility. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.87%, down 0.50 points, while long-dated ATM IV averaged 39.19%, down 0.98 points. The nearest eligible forward fell 3.10% over the comparison window.

No eligible news context was retained for this date within the weekly observation window.

Two-week relative put-side volatility ended higher, without qualifying news context for the weekly change.

01 · Week in review

Macro · Crypto · Options

The week in markets.

Bitcoin’s two-week RR25 fell 1.87 volatility points to -0.50% during the week, leaving relative put-side volatility above call-side volatility. Front-end ATM IV averaged 34.87%, down 0.50 points, while long-dated ATM IV averaged 39.19%, down 0.98 points. The nearest eligible forward fell 3.10% over the comparison window.

No qualifying context for Bitcoin options

Daily report

No eligible news context was retained for this date within the weekly observation window.

No qualifying context for Bitcoin options

Daily report

No eligible news context was retained for this date within the weekly observation window.

No qualifying context for Bitcoin options

Daily report

No eligible news context was retained for this date within the weekly observation window.

No qualifying context for Bitcoin options

Daily report

No eligible news context was retained for this date within the weekly observation window.

No qualifying context for Bitcoin options

Daily report

No eligible news context was retained for this date within the weekly observation window.

No qualifying context for Bitcoin options

Daily report

No eligible news context was retained for this date within the weekly observation window.

Bitcoin skew finishes week put-rich

Daily report

Two-week relative put-side volatility ended higher, without qualifying news context for the weekly change.

02 · Options market read

What the volatility surface did.

5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -1.52 volatility points, to 34.46%.

Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data

03 · Catalyst check

05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC to 12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC

No relevant catalyst identified.

No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.

04 · Detailed surface analysis

What changed across the BTC volatility surface.

Front end

Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.50 volatility points to 34.87% across 1W, 2W and 1M.

Long end

Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 39.19% (-0.98 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.

Skew

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.31 volatility points to -0.57% across the five available headline tenors.

Convexity

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points to 2.12% across the five available headline tenors.

Largest standard-tenor move

The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.52 volatility points at 2W, to 34.46%.

Weekly universe roll: added 13SEP26, 14SEP26, 15SEP26, 16SEP26, 2OCT26; removed 11SEP26, 6SEP26, 7SEP26, 8SEP26, 9SEP26. Listed-expiry changes use contracts present at both endpoints.

05 · Seven-day ranking

Largest weekly surface events

01

Largest eligible smile rotation

18SEP26, -4.80 vol pts
02

Largest standard-tenor RR25 move

2W, -1.87 vol pts
03

Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move

2W, -1.52 vol pts
04

Largest eligible SVI rho move

25SEP26, +0.1316 param
05

Largest eligible SVI sigma move

30OCT26, +0.1297 param
06

Largest standard-tenor BF25 move

2W, +0.09 vol pts

06 · ATM volatility

Week-end against week-opening ATM volatility.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)Relative change
1W34.7633.55+1.21 vol pts+3.61%
2W34.4635.98-1.52 vol pts-4.22%
1M35.4036.60-1.20 vol pts-3.28%
3M37.9638.84-0.88 vol pts-2.27%
6M39.1940.17-0.98 vol pts-2.44%
9M40.3941.42-1.03 vol pts-2.49%
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

07 · During the week

Ranges and largest day-to-day repricings.

The generator sampled the final successful BTC surface on each of 8 observed UTC dates, so endpoint changes can be read alongside the path taken during the week.

01

ATM IV · 09-10 to 09-11

1W, -6.35 vol pts
02

ATM IV · 09-10 to 09-11

2W, -4.93 vol pts
03

ATM IV · 09-07 to 09-08

1W, +2.92 vol pts
04

ATM IV · 09-10 to 09-11

1M, -2.62 vol pts
05

ATM IV · 09-05 to 09-06

1W, +2.04 vol pts
06

ATM IV · 09-07 to 09-08

2W, +1.65 vol pts
TenorATM IV lowATM IV highATM IV rangeRR25 rangeBF25 range
1W34.61%40.96%6.35 vol pts1.96 vol pts0.63 vol pts
2W34.36%39.29%4.93 vol pts1.96 vol pts0.34 vol pts
1M35.38%38.30%2.92 vol pts1.56 vol pts0.34 vol pts
3M37.96%39.70%1.74 vol pts1.06 vol pts0.24 vol pts
6M39.19%40.35%1.16 vol pts0.76 vol pts0.14 vol pts
9M40.26%41.42%1.16 vol pts0.96 vol pts0.20 vol pts
1Y40.84%42.13%1.29 vol pts1.13 vol pts0.30 vol pts

Daily report trail

The validated reports behind the weekly path.

This weekly edition reuses the stored headline, reader summary, news outcome and principal ATM fact from each published daily report inside the comparison window.

DatePublished daily reportLargest daily ATM moveNews outcome
Bitcoin’s one-week volatility move dominates the surface1W: +3.24 vol pts to 34.95%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin’s curve adds convexity without a broad long-end reset1W: +2.36 vol pts to 36.83%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin’s short-dated skew becomes put-rich2W: -0.63 vol pts to 36.77%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin’s short-dated call-side premium becomes the main signal1W: +2.86 vol pts to 39.57%Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Bitcoin’s one-week convexity increase accompanies a firmer front end1W: +0.90 vol pts to 40.47%News context unavailable
Bitcoin’s lower front-end volatility came with a defensive skew shift1W: -1.48 vol pts to 38.99%No sufficiently relevant context identified
Bitcoin front-end volatility falls as spot rises1W: -2.65 vol pts to 36.34%No sufficiently relevant context identified
BTC daily surface: 1W ATM IV falls 1.58 volatility points1W: -1.58 vol pts to 34.76%No sufficiently relevant context identified

08 · Skew and convexity

RR25 and BF25 over the seven-day window.

RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -1.31 volatility points to -0.57% across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible RR25 movement was at 2W. Negative RR25 denotes a richer put wing.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W-0.371.14-1.51 vol pts
2W-0.501.37-1.87 vol pts
1M-0.751.03-1.78 vol pts
3M-0.510.19-0.70 vol pts
6M-0.72-0.05-0.67 vol pts
9M-0.620.09-0.71 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging +0.01 volatility points to 2.12% across the five available headline tenors. The largest eligible BF25 movement was at 2W.

TenorWeek end (vol %)Week start (vol %)Change (vol pts)
1W1.771.70+0.07 vol pts
2W1.881.79+0.09 vol pts
1M2.112.19-0.08 vol pts
3M2.272.35-0.08 vol pts
6M2.582.55+0.03 vol pts
9M2.722.77-0.05 vol pts
1YUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

09 · Listed expiries

Common exchange maturities at both weekly endpoints.

ExpiryTime leftForward end (USD)Forward change (USD)ATM IV endATM IV changeRR25 changeBF25 change
18SEP265.6 days77,411.55-2475.93 USD35.00%-1.00 vol pts-1.75 vol pts-0.01 vol pts
25SEP2612.6 days77,451.02-2475.63 USD34.31%-1.63 vol pts-1.68 vol pts-0.04 vol pts
30OCT2647.6 days77,794.11-2465.78 USD35.78%-1.38 vol pts-1.57 vol pts-0.19 vol pts
27NOV2675.6 days78,094.45-2489.33 USD37.67%-1.03 vol pts-0.74 vol pts-0.18 vol pts
25DEC26103.6 days78,418.87-2488.83 USD38.13%-0.95 vol pts-0.51 vol pts-0.07 vol pts
26MAR27194.6 days79,355.65-2471.05 USD39.28%-1.05 vol pts-0.69 vol pts+0.03 vol pts
25JUN27285.6 days80,372.41-2401.20 USD40.51%-1.11 vol pts-0.73 vol pts-0.09 vol pts

10 · Smile movement

Reconstructed SVI smiles for common expiries.

Each overlay compares the fitted smile at the two weekly endpoints. Ultra-short expiries remain visible but do not determine headline rankings.

18SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
30OCT26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
27NOV26rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25DEC26parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
26MAR27parallel shift lower · rotation towards puts
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k
25JUN27parallel shift lower
-0.30k0.00k+0.30k

Weekly surface movement heatmap

Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points from week start to week end.

11 · SVI diagnostics

Weekly movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.

Parameter changes are shown directly from the stored endpoint fits; no causal interpretation is attached.

ExpiryΔ aΔ bΔ rhoΔ mΔ sigmaSmile classification
18SEP26-0.00320-0.00310+0.07890+0.06500+0.00970rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25SEP26-0.01220+0.00320+0.13160+0.08750+0.04890rotation towards puts, wing steepening
30OCT26-0.03540+0.02510+0.01420-0.00730+0.12970rotation towards puts
27NOV26-0.03130+0.01850-0.02830-0.04730+0.08840rotation towards puts
25DEC26+0.02120-0.01630-0.01200+0.01710-0.04650parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
26MAR27+0.02620-0.01510+0.00060+0.04200-0.07090parallel shift lower, rotation towards puts
25JUN27+0.00010-0.00970+0.03330+0.06650-0.00790parallel shift lower

12 · Methodology and provenance

Generated from validated surface data and stored reporting evidence.

Week-end snapshot
12 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC
Week-opening snapshot
05 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC
Comparison
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately seven days apart
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface database
Snapshot selection
The final successful BTC surface on each observed UTC date is included. This report contains 8 daily snapshots; an approximately seven-day window contains eight observations when both the start and end dates are present.
Daily report inputs
The weekly edition reuses 8 validated daily reports from 2026-09-05 through 2026-09-12; their stored headlines, reader summaries, news outcomes and principal ATM facts form the daily report trail.
Calculations and commentary
Metrics and takeaways are deterministic. Daily headlines and introductions may be model-assisted, constrained to the same stored facts; weekly prose is deterministic.
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Causal claims
The report describes observed surface changes only and does not infer unsupported market drivers, spot moves, flows or forecasts.

This report contains 8 daily snapshots because both the start and end dates are observed within the approximately seven-day window.

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