5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 2W at -0.63 volatility points, to 36.77%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
06 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC to 07 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 16:54 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 36.67%, 2.49 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 34.18%; 24-hour realised volatility was 25.44% and 30-day realised volatility was 37.75%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.33 volatility points to 36.82% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 39.93% (-0.21 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.90 volatility points to -0.24% across the five available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.07 volatility points to 2.13% across the five available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -0.63 volatility points at 2W, to 36.77%.
Universe roll: no additions; removed 7SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
05 · Standard-tenor ranking
Largest surface events
01
Largest eligible smile rotation
10SEP26, -6.70 vol pts02
Largest standard-tenor RR25 move
1W, -1.38 vol pts03
Largest standard-tenor ATM IV move
2W, -0.63 vol pts04
Largest eligible SVI sigma move
27NOV26, -0.1380 param05
Largest standard-tenor BF25 move
6M, -0.13 vol pts06
Largest eligible SVI rho move
25SEP26, +0.0876 param
06 · ATM volatility
Standard-tenor ATM implied volatility.
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
Relative change
1W
36.67
36.71
-0.04 vol pts
-0.11%
2W
36.77
37.40
-0.63 vol pts
-1.68%
1M
37.01
37.33
-0.32 vol pts
-0.86%
3M
38.82
38.88
-0.06 vol pts
-0.15%
6M
39.93
40.14
-0.21 vol pts
-0.52%
9M
41.15
41.46
-0.31 vol pts
-0.75%
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
07 · Risk reversals
RR25 skew moved most at 1W.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.90 volatility points to -0.24% across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
-0.22
1.16
-1.38 vol pts
2W
0.08
1.23
-1.15 vol pts
1M
0.06
1.03
-0.97 vol pts
3M
-0.62
-0.08
-0.54 vol pts
6M
-0.52
-0.05
-0.47 vol pts
9M
-0.27
0.24
-0.51 vol pts
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
08 · Butterflies
BF25 convexity changed most at 6M.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.07 volatility points to 2.13% across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
CurrentPrevious day
Tenor
Current (vol %)
Previous (vol %)
Change (vol pts)
1W
1.70
1.82
-0.12 vol pts
2W
1.84
1.85
-0.01 vol pts
1M
2.20
2.21
-0.01 vol pts
3M
2.36
2.46
-0.10 vol pts
6M
2.54
2.67
-0.13 vol pts
9M
2.69
2.80
-0.11 vol pts
1Y
Unavailable
Unavailable
Unavailable
09 · Expiry effects
Near-settlement moves, shown with context.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
0.6d
Smile rotation
8SEP26, -9.38 vol pts1.6d
Smile rotation
9SEP26, -7.97 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentPrevious day
Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
8SEP26Expiry effect
0.6 days
79,007.76
-690.04 USD
27.19%
-3.14 vol pts
-1.35 vol pts
-0.77 vol pts
9SEP26Expiry effect
1.6 days
78,985.14
-737.54 USD
31.26%
-0.89 vol pts
-1.86 vol pts
-0.22 vol pts
10SEP26
2.6 days
78,993.26
-722.13 USD
33.09%
-1.18 vol pts
-1.81 vol pts
+0.09 vol pts
11SEP26
3.6 days
79,000.2
-710.10 USD
35.14%
-0.32 vol pts
-1.57 vol pts
-0.25 vol pts
18SEP26
10.6 days
79,053.33
-737.35 USD
37.22%
-0.44 vol pts
-1.34 vol pts
-0.06 vol pts
25SEP26
17.6 days
79,096.43
-741.28 USD
36.48%
-0.59 vol pts
-1.03 vol pts
-0.03 vol pts
30OCT26
52.6 days
79,441.16
-743.30 USD
37.33%
-0.19 vol pts
-0.89 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
27NOV26
80.6 days
79,749.02
-744.33 USD
38.69%
-0.04 vol pts
-0.61 vol pts
-0.07 vol pts
25DEC26
108.6 days
80,067.49
-744.05 USD
38.98%
-0.13 vol pts
-0.39 vol pts
-0.13 vol pts
26MAR27
199.6 days
81,030.19
-722.32 USD
40.05%
-0.23 vol pts
-0.47 vol pts
-0.13 vol pts
25JUN27
290.6 days
81,992.51
-706.85 USD
41.33%
-0.33 vol pts
-0.51 vol pts
-0.11 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
8SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening9SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening10SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening11SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening18SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening25SEP26rotation towards puts30OCT26rotation towards puts27NOV26rotation towards puts25DEC26limited movement26MAR27parallel shift lower25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
8SEP26
9SEP26
10SEP26
11SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
30OCT26
27NOV26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
12 · Technical appendix
Model parameters and normalized Greeks.
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 27NOV26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
8SEP26
+0.00880
-0.03210
-0.11360
-0.05420
+0.09280
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
9SEP26
+0.01200
-0.01770
-0.04380
-0.01090
-0.03750
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
10SEP26
+0.00600
-0.00010
+0.01720
+0.02610
-0.05550
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
11SEP26
-0.01560
+0.00480
-0.00580
-0.00320
+0.10240
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
18SEP26
-0.00270
-0.00470
+0.05150
+0.04560
+0.03090
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25SEP26
+0.00030
-0.00740
+0.08760
+0.06810
+0.01290
rotation towards puts
30OCT26
-0.01150
+0.00940
+0.00210
+0.00470
+0.04060
rotation towards puts
27NOV26
+0.05980
-0.03980
-0.04920
+0.02940
-0.13800
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.05310
-0.02850
-0.05160
-0.01620
-0.09230
limited movement
26MAR27
+0.04160
-0.03400
+0.03550
+0.06590
-0.03950
parallel shift lower
25JUN27
+0.05630
-0.04090
+0.06770
+0.11370
-0.06070
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.5 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was low at 0.16.
Implied-volatility premium
BTC 30-day ATM IV was 36.20%, against VIX at 14.53: a 21.67-point spread and 2.49× ratio.
Realised-volatility regime
BTC 20-calendar-day realised volatility was 50.32%, versus SPX 20-session realised volatility of 8.30%. The spread ranked at 87.7 percentile of 228 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.158 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.352 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.97, 14.53 and 17.61.
As of 04 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. market-context-v1; crypto RV=sqrt(365), SPX RV=sqrt(252); sources: DerivaSys fixed-tenor surface, DerivaSys canonical crypto index, ^VIX, ^GSPC.
13 · Methodology and provenance
Generated from measured Derivasys surface data.
Current snapshot
07 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC
Comparison snapshot
06 Sept 2026, 16:54 UTC
Source
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
