Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-09-07 edition is verified but ends at 7 Sept, 16:54 UTC; this window requires 7 Sept, 16:30 UTC.
A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.
Next daily cutoff: measurable checks
These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.
Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 39.57 percent at . Current level 39.57; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 36.71 percent at . Current level 39.57; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt
These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-09-09T16:30:00+00:00.
Chart notes
Combined surface read: ATM IV rose (BTC); RR25 moved toward calls (BTC); BF25 wing premium increased (BTC).
01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · Options
The day in markets.
Smile rotation is the fitted IV change at +0.15 log-moneyness minus the change at −0.15, in volatility points. A positive reading indicates a relative shift toward the call side.
Bitcoin skew moves decisively toward calls
One-week skew and implied volatility rose as Bitcoin’s nearest forward edged lower.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained.
Crypto
Bitcoin recovered from session lows as oil prices pulled back; timing alone does not establish a link.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at +2.86 volatility points, to 39.57%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
07 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC to 08 Sept 2026, 16:30 UTC
Relevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.
News collection was incomplete; the retained events do not establish full coverage.
Confidencelow causal confidence
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 16:30 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 39.57%, 6.10 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 33.47%; 24-hour realised volatility was 27.74% and 30-day realised volatility was 38.06%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV increased, averaging +1.87 volatility points to 38.67% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 40.12% (+0.17 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
Skew
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.63 volatility points to 0.42 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.25 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was +2.86 volatility points at 1W, to 39.57%.
Universe roll: added 12SEP26; removed 8SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.63 volatility points to 0.42 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
BF25 increased, averaging +0.13 volatility points to 2.25 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
1.6d
Smile rotation
10SEP26, +11.14 vol pts0.6d
Smile rotation
9SEP26, +5.25 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
9SEP26Expiry effect
0.6 days
78,609.09
-207.24 USD
31.72%
-0.76 vol pts
+1.21 vol pts
-0.01 vol pts
10SEP26Expiry effect
1.6 days
78,632.18
-190.58 USD
36.19%
+2.75 vol pts
+2.51 vol pts
-0.19 vol pts
11SEP26
2.6 days
78,643.03
-185.98 USD
37.25%
+1.60 vol pts
+2.45 vol pts
+0.23 vol pts
18SEP26
9.6 days
78,685.63
-199.17 USD
39.42%
+2.32 vol pts
+1.19 vol pts
+0.21 vol pts
25SEP26
16.6 days
78,725.02
-203.76 USD
38.17%
+1.70 vol pts
+0.62 vol pts
+0.02 vol pts
30OCT26
51.6 days
79,051.38
-212.09 USD
37.84%
+0.56 vol pts
+0.40 vol pts
+0.30 vol pts
27NOV26
79.6 days
79,361.47
-216.32 USD
39.26%
+0.61 vol pts
+0.28 vol pts
+0.04 vol pts
25DEC26
107.6 days
79,672.08
-221.85 USD
39.46%
+0.48 vol pts
+0.21 vol pts
-0.07 vol pts
26MAR27
198.6 days
80,611.53
-232.01 USD
40.20%
+0.12 vol pts
+0.11 vol pts
+0.19 vol pts
25JUN27
289.6 days
81,615.28
-201.12 USD
41.46%
+0.11 vol pts
-0.12 vol pts
+0.14 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
9SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening10SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening11SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening18SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening25SEP26rotation towards calls30OCT26parallel shift higher27NOV26parallel shift higher25DEC26parallel shift higher26MAR27parallel shift higher25JUN27parallel shift higher
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
9SEP26
10SEP26
11SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
30OCT26
27NOV26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against US equity risk.
BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.5 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was low at 0.16.
Implied-volatility premium
BTC 30-day ATM IV was 36.20%, against VIX at 14.53: a 21.67-point spread and 2.49× ratio.
Realised-volatility regime
BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 50.32%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 8.30%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 87.7% of 228 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.158 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.352 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 11.97, 14.53 and 17.61.
RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
As of 04 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.
Evidence and methodology
DerivaSys 30-day fixed-tenor surface and canonical crypto index; ^VIX and ^GSPC via Yahoo Finance; valid persisted market-context-v1.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-09-07 16:30:00 UTC → 2026-09-08 16:30:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Original report summary
Bitcoin one-week RR25 rose 1.52 volatility points to 1.31 volatility points, leaving call-side volatility richer than put-side volatility after the 16:30 UTC cutoff. One-week ATM IV simultaneously rose 2.86 points to 39.57%, while Bitcoin spot fell 0.24% over 24 hours. DerivaSys data put one-week implied volatility 6.10 points above seven-day realised volatility.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 39.57% · Δ +2.86 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 1.31 vol pts · Δ +1.52 vol pts
Wings: BTC 1W BF25 1.87 vol pts · Δ +0.20 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 39.57% · Δ +2.86 vol ptspercentile rank 76.6% by absolute move · full history (n=137)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 1.31 vol pts · Δ +1.52 vol ptspercentile rank 80.3% by absolute move · full history (n=137)
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 11SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 11SEP26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
9SEP26
+0.01990
-0.02370
+0.02740
+0.00720
-0.13910
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
10SEP26
+0.02150
-0.03080
+0.04120
+0.00810
-0.05110
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
11SEP26
+0.03200
-0.02580
+0.05970
+0.03250
-0.16400
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
18SEP26
+0.01450
-0.00900
+0.04440
+0.02820
-0.07270
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
25SEP26
+0.00410
-0.00800
+0.05450
+0.02500
+0.00030
rotation towards calls
30OCT26
+0.01070
-0.00450
+0.02260
+0.02590
-0.05730
parallel shift higher
27NOV26
+0.01040
+0.00380
-0.04170
-0.02260
-0.04380
parallel shift higher
25DEC26
-0.01850
+0.01370
-0.03430
-0.05500
+0.04000
parallel shift higher
26MAR27
-0.01110
+0.01970
-0.03130
-0.03520
-0.01970
parallel shift higher
25JUN27
-0.01060
+0.01430
-0.01960
-0.01540
-0.00990
parallel shift higher
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 08 Sept 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
