Prior comparison unavailable: the published 2026-09-10 edition is verified but ends at 10 Sept, 16:30 UTC; this window requires 10 Sept, 16:29 UTC.
A structured watchlist was not recorded or could not be verified in the prior edition; prior-watch outcomes remain unavailable.
Next daily cutoff: measurable checks
These checks are reconstructed from this edition’s stored endpoints; they were not recorded in the original report.
Hold the observed level: BTC 1W ATM IV ≤ 36.34 percent at . Current level 36.34; threshold is the current observed endpoint.
Full retrace: BTC 1W ATM IV ≥ 38.99 percent at . Current level 36.34; threshold is the previous observed endpoint.
Measurement basis and receipt
These are observed-level conditions for the next aligned cutoff, with no forecast or trade action. Spot uses exact index endpoints where available; ATM IV is quoted in percent and its change, RR25 and BF25 in volatility points. Derived from verified legacy artifact endpoints.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-current-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-11T16:29:00+00:00 to 2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00.
BTC:atmIv:1W:observed-previous-level: rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.previous; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.current; rows[asset=BTC].report.tenors[tenor=1W].atmIv.change; evaluation window 2026-09-11T16:29:00+00:00 to 2026-09-12T16:29:00+00:00.
Chart notes
Combined surface read: ATM IV fell (BTC); RR25 moved toward puts (BTC); BF25 wing premium decreased (BTC).
02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -2.65 volatility points, to 36.34%.
Derived directly from structured Derivasys surface data
03 · Catalyst check
10 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC to 11 Sept 2026, 16:29 UTC
No catalyst assigned.
No qualifying context was found in the monitored news sources for this reporting window.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Implied versus realised
At the 16:29 UTC cutoff, 1W ATM IV was 36.34%, 5.18 volatility points above seven-day realised volatility of 31.16%; 24-hour realised volatility was 47.59% and 30-day realised volatility was 39.42%.
Front end
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -2.23 volatility points to 35.99% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Long end
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 39.67% (-0.40 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
Skew
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.48 volatility points to -0.65 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
Convexity
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.13 volatility points to 2.15 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
Largest standard-tenor move
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -2.65 volatility points at 1W, to 36.34%.
Universe roll: added 15SEP26; removed 11SEP26. Comparisons use common expiries only.
RR25 moved towards puts, averaging -0.48 volatility points to -0.65 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. Negative RR25 denotes a richer 25-delta put wing under the call-minus-put convention.
BF25 decreased, averaging -0.13 volatility points to 2.15 volatility points across the five available headline tenors. BF25 measures the average 25-delta wing premium over ATM IV.
Contracts with fewer than 2 full days to expiry remain in the tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
1.6d
ATM IV change
13SEP26, -10.44 vol pts0.6d
ATM IV change
12SEP26, -8.66 vol pts
10 · Volatility term structure
Today against the previous 24-hour snapshot.
Only fixed tenors bracketed by listed expiries at both snapshots are charted. The listed-expiry table preserves the observable exchange maturities underneath those interpolated points.
CurrentComparison snapshot
Suppressed outside the observable listed-expiry range: 1Y.
Expiry
Time left
Forward now (USD)
Forward change (USD)
ATM IV now
ATM IV change
RR25 change
BF25 change
12SEP26Expiry effect
0.6 days
77,715.26
+773.35 USD
32.45%
-8.66 vol pts
-1.03 vol pts
-1.15 vol pts
13SEP26Expiry effect
1.6 days
77,730.55
+781.72 USD
24.71%
-10.44 vol pts
+0.16 vol pts
-1.06 vol pts
14SEP26
2.6 days
77,738.67
+783.68 USD
25.45%
-9.09 vol pts
+0.16 vol pts
-0.86 vol pts
18SEP26
6.6 days
77,785.08
+794.98 USD
36.43%
-2.94 vol pts
-0.63 vol pts
-0.19 vol pts
25SEP26
13.6 days
77,821.36
+798.11 USD
35.54%
-2.58 vol pts
-0.59 vol pts
-0.09 vol pts
2OCT26
20.6 days
77,893.52
+792.55 USD
35.56%
-2.11 vol pts
-0.63 vol pts
-0.29 vol pts
30OCT26
48.6 days
78,185.15
+828.23 USD
36.52%
-0.78 vol pts
-0.37 vol pts
-0.09 vol pts
27NOV26
76.6 days
78,483.88
+831.59 USD
38.33%
-0.55 vol pts
-0.46 vol pts
0.00 vol pts
25DEC26
104.6 days
78,803.37
+846.47 USD
38.88%
-0.38 vol pts
-0.18 vol pts
-0.10 vol pts
26MAR27
195.6 days
79,734.06
+842.82 USD
39.74%
-0.41 vol pts
-0.21 vol pts
-0.17 vol pts
25JUN27
286.6 days
80,747.93
+876.19 USD
40.76%
-0.39 vol pts
-0.20 vol pts
-0.12 vol pts
11 · Smile movement
Reconstructed SVI smiles for every common expiry.
Each overlay uses the stored five-parameter SVI fit and the snapshot-specific time to expiry. Ultra-short expiries are displayed but do not determine the headline ranking.
12SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening13SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening14SEP26rotation towards calls · wing steepening18SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening25SEP26rotation towards puts · wing steepening2OCT26rotation towards puts30OCT26parallel shift lower27NOV26rotation towards puts25DEC26parallel shift lower26MAR27parallel shift lower25JUN27parallel shift lower
Surface movement heatmap
Each cell is the fitted IV change in volatility points. Rows are listed expiries; columns run from the put wing through ATM to the call wing.
IV lowerIV higher
12SEP26
13SEP26
14SEP26
18SEP26
25SEP26
2OCT26
30OCT26
27NOV26
25DEC26
26MAR27
25JUN27
-0.30kATM+0.30k
Completed-session cross-asset context
Crypto volatility against US equity risk.
BTC 30-day implied volatility was 2.1 times VIX, while its 30-session return correlation with SPX was low at 0.20.
Implied-volatility premium
BTC 30-day ATM IV was 37.49%, against VIX at 17.84: a 19.65-point spread and 2.10× ratio.
Daily-close realised-volatility regime
BTC reported crypto realised volatility was 33.42%, versus SPX reported realised volatility of 8.73%. The spread ranked at percentile rank 39.0% of 231 prior observations.
Equity co-movement
Return correlation with SPX was 0.203 over 30 aligned sessions and 0.307 over 60 sessions. VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M closed at 17.70, 17.84 and 19.73.
RV comparison basis unverified: this edition does not record the recognised provider methodology for both horizons and annualisation conventions. The displayed spread rank does not establish matched-horizon comparability.
As of 10 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC. Implied volatility and completed-session realised volatility use their respective observation windows shown above.
The RV comparisons use one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. No coverage policy was recorded in this edition; read the recorded window availability and coverage below.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Report comparison baseline → current snapshot
2026-09-10 16:29:00 UTC → 2026-09-11 16:29:00 UTC
Changes use these stored market-snapshot baselines. The comparison baseline may differ from the snapshot used in the previous published edition.
Original report summary
Bitcoin one-week ATM IV fell 2.65 volatility points to 36.34% over the observation window, even as the 24-hour spot-index return was positive 1.00%. Derivasys data show the move was notable against comparable history. One-week implied volatility nevertheless remained 5.18 points above seven-day realised volatility, while 24-hour realised volatility was higher.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: BTC 1W ATM IV 36.34% · Δ -2.65 vol pts
Skew: BTC 1W RR25 0.11 vol pts · Δ -0.68 vol pts
Wings: BTC 1W BF25 1.89 vol pts · Δ -0.16 vol pts
Vol
BTC 1W ATM IV 36.34% · Δ -2.65 vol ptspercentile rank 71.4% by absolute move · full history (n=140)
Skew
BTC 1W RR25 0.11 vol pts · Δ -0.68 vol ptspercentile rank 46.4% by absolute move · full history (n=140)
Wings
BTC 1W BF25 1.89 vol pts · Δ -0.16 vol ptspercentile rank 51.4% by absolute move · full history (n=140)
IV versus RV
BTC Unavailable
Unavailable readings: BTC IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Historical move evidence
BTC 1W ATM IV: percentile rank 71.4% by absolute move · full history (n=140)
BTC 1W RR25: percentile rank 46.4% by absolute move · full history (n=140)
BTC 1W BF25: percentile rank 51.4% by absolute move · full history (n=140)
Technical appendix: measurement and history provenance
These diagnostics preserve the fitted-surface audit trail without competing with the main market story.
Show SVI parameter changes and normalized Greeks
SVI diagnostics
Daily movement in a, b, rho, m and sigma.
Among ranking-eligible expiries, the largest absolute rho change occurred at 25SEP26; the largest sigma change occurred at 2OCT26.
Expiry
Δ a
Δ b
Δ rho
Δ m
Δ sigma
Smile classification
12SEP26
+0.02260
-0.04490
-0.05570
-0.02540
+0.00590
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
13SEP26
+0.02470
-0.04460
+0.01730
+0.00690
-0.03770
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
14SEP26
+0.01950
-0.03380
+0.09080
+0.04460
-0.02580
rotation towards calls, wing steepening
18SEP26
+0.00090
-0.00410
+0.10150
+0.06840
+0.00250
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
25SEP26
+0.00580
-0.00640
+0.12310
+0.08100
-0.02730
rotation towards puts, wing steepening
2OCT26
-0.04980
+0.03580
-0.10480
-0.10040
+0.17210
rotation towards puts
30OCT26
-0.01640
+0.00670
+0.03760
+0.01610
+0.05670
parallel shift lower
27NOV26
-0.00880
-0.01640
+0.09200
+0.07240
+0.05190
rotation towards puts
25DEC26
+0.04520
-0.02310
-0.04750
-0.01580
-0.08820
parallel shift lower
26MAR27
-0.00790
-0.00420
-0.00820
-0.00980
+0.03520
parallel shift lower
25JUN27
+0.03620
-0.01810
-0.05800
-0.05300
-0.04850
parallel shift lower
Current surface characteristics
Where normalized model Greek intensity is highest.
These are comparable Black-forward Greeks for a one-BTC ATM-forward call at each listed expiry—not portfolio exposure, open interest or a prediction of dealer positioning.
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
BTC · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 11 Sept 2026, 16:29:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
Derivasys proprietary historical SVI surface and canonical BTC index databases
Realised volatility
Annualised root-mean-square of one-minute canonical BTC-USD index log returns using a 365-day basis; all windows end at the current snapshot.
Comparison window
Nearest successful surface snapshots approximately 24 hours apart
RR convention
25-delta call IV minus 25-delta put IV
BF convention
Average 25-delta wing IV minus ATM forward IV
Fixed tenors
Fixed-tenor measures are published only when listed expiries bracket the target at both comparison snapshots. Targets outside either observable range are suppressed, not extrapolated; headline rankings use only supported tenors.
Smile reconstruction
Listed-expiry smiles are reconstructed from stored SVI total-variance parameters on a fixed log-moneyness grid.
Ultra-short expiries
Expiries with fewer than 2 full days remaining stay in detailed tables but are excluded from headline rankings. Settlement proximity, time decay, changing liquidity and fewer quotes can exaggerate their changes.
Greek normalization
Black forward Greeks for a normalized one-BTC ATM-forward call, zero rate, fitted SVI IV
Catalyst policy
Only sufficiently relevant, reliably sourced events are shown; otherwise no catalyst is assigned.
