01 · Daily briefing
Macro · Crypto · OptionsThe day in markets.
BTC 1M RR25 rises 1.03 volatility points toward calls
Between the October 1 and October 2 snapshots at 16:30 UTC, BTC 1M RR25 rose 1.03 volatility points to -1.04 volatility points, according to Derivasys data. At the October 1 snapshot, BTC 1M RR25 measured -2.07%. This call-minus-put measure remained negative, indicating higher implied volatility for 25-delta puts than calls. The relative adjustment does not establish either wing’s individual volatility change.
Macro
No qualifying macro event was retained for this report window.
Crypto
Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin climbed after weaker-than-expected payrolls pushed Treasury yields lower, while order-book resistance kept BTC from reaching new macro highs. That reporting provides session context without establishing a cause for the measured skew adjustment.
Links identify the underlying reporting for retained events; entries without a retained link are marked.
BTC volatility context · Derivasys DS30 and Bitfinex BVIV
Model-derived and market-implied volatility.
Derivasys DS30 is model-derived volatility; Bitfinex BVIV is a market-implied reference. Values and their difference are shown in volatility points.
39.20 vol points
Measurement 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC
At report cutoff · 0 min measurement lag
37.81 vol points
Measurement 02 Oct 2026, 16:18:50 UTC
Stale · 11 min measurement lag
Comparison suppressed — BVIV is marked stale (age 11m); freshness threshold not recorded
As of 02 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Measurement freshness is shown separately for each index.
Index evidence and methodology
DS30 · Source measurement 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC; observed receipt not recorded; ingested not recorded. Freshness: At report cutoff, evaluated 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices
BVIV · Source measurement 02 Oct 2026, 16:18:50 UTC; observed receipt 02 Oct 2026, 16:19:00 UTC; ingested 02 Oct 2026, 16:19:00 UTC. Freshness: Stale, evaluated 02 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC. Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel
BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff
{
"schemaVersion": 1,
"source": "market-context-mcp",
"type": "btc_volatility_context_latest",
"asset": "BTC",
"asOfTimestamp": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
"status": "partial",
"ds30": {
"value": 39.20164006688318,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00",
"observedAt": null,
"ingestedAt": null,
"freshness": {
"status": "fresh",
"ageSeconds": 0,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00"
},
"availability": null,
"methodology": "Derivasys model-free 30-calendar-day implied volatility from fitted BTC SVI slices"
},
"bviv": {
"value": 37.812648148919,
"units": "volatility_points",
"sourceTimestamp": "2026-10-02T16:18:50+00:00",
"observedAt": "2026-10-02T16:19:00+00:00",
"ingestedAt": "2026-10-02T16:19:00+00:00",
"freshness": {
"status": "stale",
"ageSeconds": 670,
"evaluatedAt": "2026-10-02T16:30:00+00:00"
},
"availability": "streaming",
"methodology": "Bitfinex BVIV reference price from the status channel"
},
"bvivMinusDs30": {
"value": null,
"units": "volatility_points",
"status": "unavailable",
"methodology": "BVIV minus independently selected latest eligible DS30 at or before the requested cutoff"
}
}Source index JSON02 · Options market read
What the volatility surface did.
5 of 6 headline tenors were comparable at both endpoints. The largest ATM IV move was 1W at -1.37 volatility points, to 28.62%.
RV observation windows
The 24-hour, seven-day and 30-day RV windows are assessed independently using observed one-minute index returns, annualised on a 365-day basis. Recorded minimums: at least 98% coverage over 24 hours, 97% coverage over seven days, 99.5% coverage over 30 days, with no gap longer than 60 minutes. Returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated; unavailable windows remain unreported. The exact 24-hour spot return requires prices at both endpoints.
03 · Catalyst check
01 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC to 02 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCRelevant context found; no confirmed catalyst
Relevant market event
1 relevant event was retained for the comparison window.
News is presented as contextual association unless the structured evidence supports a stronger relationship.
04 · Detailed analysis
What changed across the BTC volatility surface.
Front-end ATM IV decreased, averaging -0.83 volatility points to 31.31% across 1W, 2W and 1M.
Six-month ATM IV was broadly unchanged at 37.52% (-0.09 volatility points); 1Y was unavailable.
RR25 moved towards calls, averaging +0.61 volatility points to -0.74 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
BF25 was broadly unchanged, averaging -0.05 volatility points to 2.10 volatility points across the five available headline tenors.
The largest standard-tenor ATM IV move was -1.37 volatility points at 1W, to 28.62%.
Universe roll: added 6OCT26; removed 2OCT26. Comparisons use common expiries only.