01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Altcoin one-week ATM IV level dispersion narrowed by 7.34 volatility points to 42.57 volatility points between HYPE and TRX.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 42.57 vol points; absolute gap change -7.34 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 7.34 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 3.85 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -3.68 points to +3.66 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 65.45%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +4.37 points, call-rich; AVAX had the lowest at +0.16 points, call-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, AVAX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +6.38 points and XRP had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -5.43 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 42.57 vol pts.
AVAX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +6.38 vol points; XRP has the lowest at -5.43 vol points. The range between these spreads is 11.81 vol points.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 65.45 | XRP · 58.25 | AVAX · 54.05 | TRX · 22.88 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | TRX · 3.66 | AVAX · 0.63 | XRP · -1.00 | HYPE · -3.68 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | AVAX · 6.38 | TRX · 6.10 | HYPE · -3.69 | XRP · -5.43 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 4.37 · up 3 | HYPE · 3.89 | TRX · 0.64 · down 2 | AVAX · 0.16 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | AVAX · 0.16 · up 1 | TRX · 0.64 · up 2 | HYPE · 3.89 | XRP · 4.37 · down 3 |
| 1Y minus 1W curve slope | AVAX · 0.62 | HYPE · -0.03 · up 2 | XRP · -0.96 · down 1 | TRX · -1.67 · down 1 |
| Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change | HYPE · 1.83 | XRP · -1.07 | TRX · -1.02 | AVAX · -0.31 |
| 24h forward-proxy return | XRP · 9.39 | AVAX · 5.16 | HYPE · 2.58 | TRX · 2.51 |
1W ATM IV change
+3.85 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-33.27 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
+2.10 points from the group median
1Y minus 1W ATM IV slope
-1.17 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
-6.63 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +9.39% | $1.46 | 58.25% | -1.00 vol pts | 63.68% | -5.43 vol pts | 0.91× | Unavailable | +4.37 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 03 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +2.58% | $83.75 | 65.45% | -3.68 vol pts | 69.14% | -3.69 vol pts | 0.95× | Unavailable | +3.89 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 03 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +5.16% | $7.52 | 54.05% | +0.63 vol pts | 47.67% | +6.38 vol pts | 1.13× | Unavailable | +0.16 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 03 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +2.51% | $0.33 | 22.88% | +3.66 vol pts | 16.78% | +6.10 vol pts | 1.36× | Unavailable | +0.64 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 03 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ | 6M ATM / Δ | 1Y ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 58.25% / -1.00 | 56.17% / -2.59 | 56.27% / -2.93 | 56.95% / -2.35 | 57.29% / -2.07 |
| HYPE | 65.45% / -3.68 | 66.55% / -1.22 | 66.04% / -1.37 | 65.63% / -1.69 | 65.42% / -1.85 |
| AVAX | 54.05% / +0.63 | 55.71% / +1.46 | 55.56% / +1.24 | 54.97% / +0.63 | 54.67% / +0.32 |
| TRX | 22.88% / +3.66 | 21.64% / +2.55 | 21.42% / +2.71 | 21.28% / +2.67 | 21.21% / +2.64 |
05 · Catalyst check
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Original report summary
AVAX screens richest and XRP cheapest on one-week implied volatility versus seven-day realised volatility. One-week ATM IV level dispersion across the altcoin complex has compressed, with HYPE highest and TRX lowest.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 58.25% · Δ -1.00 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.45% · Δ -3.68 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 54.05% · Δ +0.63 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 22.88% · Δ +3.66 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 4.37 vol pts · Δ +4.63 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 3.89 vol pts · Δ +2.79 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 0.16 vol pts · Δ +0.07 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 0.64 vol pts · Δ -2.38 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 58.25% · Δ -1.00 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 65.45% · Δ -3.68 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 54.05% · Δ +0.63 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 22.88% · Δ +3.66 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 4.37 vol pts · Δ +4.63 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 3.89 vol pts · Δ +2.79 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 0.16 vol pts · Δ +0.07 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 0.64 vol pts · Δ -2.38 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.49 vol pts · Δ +0.35 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 4.13 vol pts · Δ -1.13 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.52 vol pts · Δ +0.65 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.50 vol pts · Δ -1.16 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 3 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC; HYPE 3 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC; AVAX 3 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC; TRX 3 Sept 2026, 16:38 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 03 Sept 2026, 16:38:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 03 Sept 2026, 16:38:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 03 Sept 2026, 16:38:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 03 Sept 2026, 16:38:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.