01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
The altcoin complex’s clearest move was a sharp convergence in one-week relative call-side volatility, rather than a uniform change in implied-volatility levels.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: absolute level gap 40.97 vol points; absolute gap change -0.74 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 1.34 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.
AVAX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 0.94 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -0.56 points to +0.78 points. HYPE had the highest absolute 1W IV at 62.25%.
TRX had the highest 1W RR25 at +3.47 points, call-rich; XRP had the lowest at +2.91 points, call-rich.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 40.97 vol pts.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | HYPE · 62.25 | XRP · 54.50 | AVAX · 53.39 | TRX · 21.28 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | AVAX · 0.78 | TRX · 0.21 | HYPE · -0.53 | XRP · -0.56 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | TRX · 3.47 · up 3 | AVAX · 3.41 | HYPE · 3.27 · down 2 | XRP · 2.91 · down 1 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | XRP · 2.91 · up 1 | HYPE · 3.27 · up 2 | AVAX · 3.41 | TRX · 3.47 · down 3 |
| 24h forward-proxy return | AVAX · 3.40 | XRP · 1.43 | HYPE · 0.29 | TRX · 0.00 |
1W ATM IV change
+0.94 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-32.66 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-0.43 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Native fit time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | $1.42 | 54.50% | -0.56 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +2.91 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | Unavailable | $85.52 | 62.25% | -0.53 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.27 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | Unavailable | $7.61 | 53.39% | +0.78 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.41 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
| TRX | Unavailable | $0.33 | 21.28% | +0.21 vol pts | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | +3.47 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | Native fit: 05 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC (at cutoff) | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ | 3M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 54.50% / -0.56 | 55.65% / -0.39 | 55.36% / -0.15 |
| HYPE | 62.25% / -0.53 | 64.75% / -0.23 | 66.07% / +1.28 |
| AVAX | 53.39% / +0.78 | 55.45% / +0.15 | 55.27% / -0.27 |
| TRX | 21.28% / +0.21 | 17.59% / -3.55 | 18.31% / -3.23 |
05 · Catalyst check
News context unavailable.
News context unavailable because source coverage was incomplete.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Original report summary
One-week RR25 levels across TRX and XRP are tightly grouped. One-week ATM IV levels span 40.97 volatility points between HYPE and TRX.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 54.50% · Δ -0.56 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 62.25% · Δ -0.53 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 53.39% · Δ +0.78 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 21.28% · Δ +0.21 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 2.91 vol pts · Δ +1.71 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 3.27 vol pts · Δ -0.84 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 3.41 vol pts · Δ +0.19 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 3.47 vol pts · Δ +4.24 vol pts
IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 1.34 vol pts (AVAX Δ +0.78 versus XRP Δ -0.56 vol pts)
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 54.50% · Δ -0.56 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 62.25% · Δ -0.53 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 53.39% · Δ +0.78 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 21.28% · Δ +0.21 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 2.91 vol pts · Δ +1.71 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 3.27 vol pts · Δ -0.84 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 3.41 vol pts · Δ +0.19 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 3.47 vol pts · Δ +4.24 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 2.71 vol pts · Δ +0.17 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 3.93 vol pts · Δ -0.76 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 4.55 vol pts · Δ -0.05 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 2.21 vol pts · Δ +0.48 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP Unavailable
HYPE Unavailable
AVAX Unavailable
TRX Unavailable
Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 5 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; HYPE 5 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; AVAX 5 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC; TRX 5 Sept 2026, 18:43 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| HYPE | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| AVAX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
| TRX | Unavailable | Unavailable | not recorded / not recorded required | not recorded / not recorded maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 05 Sept 2026, 18:43:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical XRP index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
HYPE · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 05 Sept 2026, 18:43:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical HYPE index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
AVAX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 05 Sept 2026, 18:43:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical AVAX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
TRX · Unavailable · Surface cutoff 05 Sept 2026, 18:43:00 UTC · 7D coverage not recorded / not recorded required · largest 7D gap not recorded / not recorded maximum · maximum gap not recorded. RV suppressed — valid 7D coverage was not recorded. Canonical TRX index coverage for 24h is incomplete: expected 1440 returns, found 1405 Full 7D coverage policy was not recorded.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.