Altcoin options volatility gap narrows as AVAX compresses

01 · Market read

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

Derivasys data show AVAX one-week ATM IV falling 2.58 volatility points to 78.82%, while TRX one-week ATM IV rose 1.39 volatility points to 18.67%. Their implied-volatility levels moved closer over the daily observation window, although AVAX remained the highest and TRX the lowest in the altcoin group. The narrowing concerns the gap between their levels, rather than a uniform decline across altcoin options. AVAX’s 24-hour spot-index return was plus 3.54%, while TRX’s 24-hour spot-index return was minus 0.43%. One-week RR25, the implied-volatility difference between comparable calls and puts, moved in different directions across the group. Matching seven-day realised-volatility comparisons were unavailable.

What is unusual today?

One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Compression: 60.15 vol points; signed spread change -3.97 vol points. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets.

Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 3.97 vol points. Stored daily changes across 4 assets.

TRX stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 2.39 vol points above the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.

Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.58 points to +1.39 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 78.82%.

AVAX had the highest 1W RR25 at +5.85 points, call-rich; TRX had the lowest at -3.43 points, put-rich.

One-week ATM IV level dispersion is compressing, at 60.15 vol pts.

This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.

02 · Relative-value rankings

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

Metric	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
1W ATM IV level	AVAX · 78.82	XRP · 71.66	HYPE · 59.38	TRX · 18.67
Daily 1W ATM IV change	TRX · 1.39	HYPE · 0.04	XRP · -2.04	AVAX · -2.58
1W IV minus 7d realised	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Highest 1W RR25	AVAX · 5.85 · up 1	HYPE · 3.97 · up 1	XRP · 3.88 · down 2	TRX · -3.43
Lowest 1W RR25	TRX · -3.43	XRP · 3.88 · up 2	HYPE · 3.97 · down 1	AVAX · 5.85 · down 1
1Y minus 1W curve slope	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
Largest 1Y minus 1W curve change	XRP · unavailable	HYPE · unavailable	AVAX · unavailable	TRX · unavailable
24h spot-index return	AVAX · 3.54	HYPE · 0.08	TRX · -0.43	XRP · -2.26

TRX

1W ATM IV change

+2.39 points from the group median

TRX

1W ATM IV level

-46.85 points from the group median

TRX

1W RR25 level

-7.36 points from the group median

03 · Altcoin scorecard

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

Asset	Spot 24h	Forward proxy	1W ATM	1W ATM Δ	7d RV	1W IV − 7d RV	IV/RV ratio	Spread percentile	1W RR25	Fit evidence	Status
XRP	-2.26%	$1.54	71.66%	-2.04 vol pts	Unavailable · 99.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	+3.88 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
HYPE	+0.08%	$91.90	59.38%	+0.04 vol pts	Unavailable · 99.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	+3.97 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
AVAX	+3.54%	$10.88	78.82%	-2.58 vol pts	Unavailable · 99.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	+5.85 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable
TRX	-0.43%	$0.34	18.67%	+1.39 vol pts	Unavailable · 99.3% coverage	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	-3.43 vol pts	Accepted fit · 6 expiries	24h comparable

04 · Term structures

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Asset	1W ATM / Δ	1M ATM / Δ
XRP	71.66% / -2.04	72.72% / -0.61
HYPE	59.38% / +0.04	59.36% / +0.74
AVAX	78.82% / -2.58	74.87% / -0.13
TRX	18.67% / +1.39	17.80% / -1.26

05 · Catalyst check

Relevant market context identified

The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.

Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis

01
Bitget hacker moves $83 million in stolen XRP that Ripple cannot freezeCoinDesk · 12:56 UTC
Bitget hacker moves $83 million in stolen XRP that Ripple cannot freeze
02
XRP Ledger’s Batch upgrade slips to Oct. 9 after validator support resetsCoinDesk · 04:30 UTC
XRP Ledger’s Batch upgrade slips to Oct. 9 after validator support resets
03
Trump rejects Iran’s seven-day roadmap to reopen Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 14:46 UTC
Tehran submitted a proposal via Qatar to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks within a week if Washington agreed.

Evidence, source data and methodology

Altcoins report data

Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.

Download report JSON · Download report CSV

Lead signal · 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC

The measurement behind the lead chart

AVAX 1W ATM IV 78.82% · Δ -2.58 vol pts

TRX 1W ATM IV 18.67% · Δ +1.39 vol pts

AVAX minus TRX: signed spread +60.15 vol pts · spread Δ -3.97 vol pts

Absolute current level gap: 60.15 vol pts

Daily-change dispersion: 3.97 vol pts

Original report summary

AVAX and TRX still marked the extremes of altcoin one-week at-the-money implied volatility at the 26 September, 18:31 UTC cutoff, but their gap narrowed over the preceding day. Derivasys data put the AVAX–TRX one-week ATM IV spread at 60.15 volatility points, down 3.97 points, as AVAX one-week ATM IV fell and TRX one-week ATM IV rose. The comparison describes how far apart their current volatility levels sit; the narrowing is a separate daily change. Skew moved differently across the complex, leaving the options picture less uniform than the closing volatility gap alone suggests.

At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes

What matters now

Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 71.66% · Δ -2.04 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 59.38% · Δ +0.04 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 78.82% · Δ -2.58 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 18.67% · Δ +1.39 vol pts

Skew: XRP 1W RR25 3.88 vol pts · Δ -2.47 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 3.97 vol pts · Δ +3.31 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 5.85 vol pts · Δ +0.19 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 -3.43 vol pts · Δ -2.57 vol pts

IV change dispersion: 1W ATM IV daily-change dispersion 3.97 vol pts (TRX Δ +1.39 versus AVAX Δ -2.58 vol pts)

Vol

XRP 1W ATM IV 71.66% · Δ -2.04 vol pts

HYPE 1W ATM IV 59.38% · Δ +0.04 vol pts

AVAX 1W ATM IV 78.82% · Δ -2.58 vol pts

TRX 1W ATM IV 18.67% · Δ +1.39 vol pts

Skew

XRP 1W RR25 3.88 vol pts · Δ -2.47 vol pts

HYPE 1W RR25 3.97 vol pts · Δ +3.31 vol pts

AVAX 1W RR25 5.85 vol pts · Δ +0.19 vol pts

TRX 1W RR25 -3.43 vol pts · Δ -2.57 vol pts

Wings

XRP 1W BF25 6.16 vol pts · Δ -0.39 vol pts

HYPE 1W BF25 4.05 vol pts · Δ +0.75 vol pts

AVAX 1W BF25 5.25 vol pts · Δ +0.63 vol pts

TRX 1W BF25 2.79 vol pts · Δ +0.09 vol pts

IV versus RV

XRP Unavailable

HYPE Unavailable

AVAX Unavailable

TRX Unavailable

Unavailable readings: XRP IV versus RV; HYPE IV versus RV; AVAX IV versus RV; TRX IV versus RV. See the report’s data availability notes.

Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.

Component cutoffs: XRP 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC; HYPE 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC; AVAX 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC; TRX 26 Sept 2026, 18:31 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.

7D realised volatility · data quality

Asset	Recorded RV	Status	Coverage / required	Longest gap / maximum
XRP	Unavailable	Unavailable	99.3056% / 99.5% required	67 min / 60 min maximum
HYPE	Unavailable	Unavailable	99.3056% / 99.5% required	67 min / 60 min maximum
AVAX	Unavailable	Unavailable	99.3056% / 99.5% required	67 min / 60 min maximum
TRX	Unavailable	Unavailable	99.3056% / 99.5% required	67 min / 60 min maximum

Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.

Full RV evidence and methodology

XRP · Surface cutoff 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/XRP-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-25T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -2.26,
  "rv24hPercent": 43.89,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10010,
    "30d": 43092
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 10010,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.3056,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 43092,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.75,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 105,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.7500% with 105 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 71.66,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 27.77,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

HYPE · Surface cutoff 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/HYPE-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-25T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 0.08,
  "rv24hPercent": 39.13,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10010,
    "30d": 43090
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 10010,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.3056,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 43090,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.7454,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 106,
      "missingIntervals": 4,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.7454% with 106 missing price minutes across 4 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 59.38,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 20.25,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

AVAX · Surface cutoff 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/AVAX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-25T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": 3.54,
  "rv24hPercent": 87.44,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10010,
    "30d": 43092
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 10010,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.3056,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 43092,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.75,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 105,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.7500% with 105 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 78.82,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": -8.62,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

TRX · Surface cutoff 26 Sept 2026, 18:31:00 UTC. 7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes.

{
  "source": "canonical/TRX-USDC-INDEX (DERIBIT and OKX indexes)",
  "fallbackObservations": 35,
  "fallbackPolicy": "Missing canonical minutes use the stored Deribit index first, then the stored OKX index; canonical bars always take precedence.",
  "samplingInterval": "1 minute",
  "annualizationBasis": "365 days",
  "windowEnd": "2026-09-26T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotWindowStart": "2026-09-25T18:31:00+00:00",
  "spotMetric": "spot-index return",
  "spotUnit": "percent",
  "spotMove24hPercent": -0.43,
  "rv24hPercent": 9.38,
  "rv7dPercent": null,
  "rv30dPercent": null,
  "observations": {
    "24h": 1440,
    "7d": 10010,
    "30d": 43092
  },
  "coverage": {
    "24h": {
      "status": "complete",
      "observedReturns": 1440,
      "expectedReturns": 1440,
      "coveragePercent": 100,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 0,
      "missingIntervals": 0,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 0,
      "unavailableReason": null
    },
    "7d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 10010,
      "expectedReturns": 10080,
      "coveragePercent": 99.3056,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 68,
      "missingIntervals": 2,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "7d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.3056% with 68 missing price minutes across 2 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    },
    "30d": {
      "status": "unavailable",
      "observedReturns": 43092,
      "expectedReturns": 43200,
      "coveragePercent": 99.75,
      "missingPriceMinutes": 105,
      "missingIntervals": 3,
      "largestMissingRunMinutes": 67,
      "unavailableReason": "30d RV requires at least 99.5% valid one-minute returns and no price gap over 60 minutes; coverage is 99.7500% with 105 missing price minutes across 3 intervals and a largest gap of 67 minutes."
    }
  },
  "coveragePolicy": {
    "version": "observed-minute-returns-v1",
    "minimumCoveragePercent": 99.5,
    "minimumCoveragePercentByWindow": {
      "24h": 99.5,
      "7d": 99.5,
      "30d": 99.5
    },
    "maximumMissingRunMinutes": 60,
    "methodology": "Each RV window qualifies independently. RV annualises the mean squared observed one-minute log return; returns spanning gaps are excluded, not interpolated or zero-filled. Partial estimates assume observed minutes are representative and may miss volatility during gaps."
  },
  "spotUnavailableReason": null,
  "oneWeekAtmIvPercent": 18.67,
  "oneWeekIvMinus7dRvPoints": null,
  "oneWeekIvMinus24hRvPoints": 9.29,
  "oneWeekIvMinus30dRvPoints": null
}

Source data JSON

06 · Methodology and provenance

An availability-aware daily comparison.

Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.

Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.

Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.

What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.

Leaders, laggards and rank changes.

1W ATM IV change

1W ATM IV level

1W RR25 level

Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.

ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.

Relevant market context identified

Sources relevant to the cross-sectional thesis

Altcoins report data

The measurement behind the lead chart

What matters now

Vol

Skew

Wings

IV versus RV

7D realised volatility · data quality

An availability-aware daily comparison.

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