01 · Market read
What is unusual across the altcoin options complex.
Front-end repricing also diverged over the same daily comparison window. XRP's 1W ATM IV increased 3.44 volatility points, and AVAX's 1W ATM IV increased 3.20 volatility points. TRX's 1W ATM IV increased 0.39 volatility points, while HYPE's 1W ATM IV decreased 2.45 volatility points. The unsigned cross-sectional range of daily 1W ATM IV changes was 5.89 volatility points.
Cross-sectional observations
One-week ATM IV level dispersion: Widening: absolute level gap 48.28 vol points; absolute gap change +2.81 vol points. Historical percentile rank 50%. Stored one-week tenor comparison at this cutoff across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
Daily one-week ATM IV-change dispersion: The cross-asset spread is 5.89 vol points. Historical percentile rank 57%. Stored daily changes across 4 assets. 32 historical observations; minimum 20.
HYPE stands apart: 1W ATM IV change is 4.25 vol points below the group median. Stored cross-section of 4 assets at this report cutoff.
Daily 1W ATM IV moves ranged from -2.45 points to +3.44 points. AVAX had the highest absolute 1W IV at 71.17%.
XRP had the highest 1W RR25 at +5.19 points, call-rich; HYPE had the lowest at -1.84 points, put-rich.
Against seven-day realised volatility, TRX had the highest IV-minus-RV spread at +10.93 points and AVAX had the lowest IV-minus-RV spread at -3.75 points. Fit evidence is shown in the scorecard before treating the ranking as robust.
One-week ATM IV level dispersion is widening, at 48.28 vol pts.
TRX has the highest 1W IV-minus-7D-RV spread at +10.93 vol points; AVAX has the lowest at -3.75 vol points. The range between these spreads is 14.68 vol points.
Historical cross-sectional readings: 1W ATM IV level dispersion percentile rank 50.0%; Daily 1W ATM IV-change dispersion percentile rank 57.1%; 1W RR25 dispersion percentile rank 75.0%.
This is a comparison of separate fitted surfaces, not a pooled altcoin index; unavailable history is not converted into a zero move.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint event comparison
Unavailable: 17 complete historical observations; at least 20 are required.
Each observation contains aligned 24-hour spot-index returns and 1W ATM IV, RR25 and BF25 changes for every covered asset. Matching requires the same direction category in every dimension; near-flat tolerances are ±0.10% spot, ±0.25 ATM IV points, and ±0.10 RR25/BF25 points.
Historical window: 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00. No joint rarity percentile is estimated. Causality is not assessed.
Descriptive supporting evidence
Joint comparisons
Each comparison uses its own complete aligned daily history. Counts describe matching direction patterns and simultaneous magnitude exceedances; no joint rarity percentile or causal claim is made.
Spot and ATM IV
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 14; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 1b89225d825e3e0d46ab94c088681ebadd0b99891be7ea0430b715d0dfcec144
invalidMeasurements: 58; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 2; duplicatePeriods: 39; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 5; incompatibleClocks: 18
ATM IV and RR25
0 matching episodes among 20 complete historical observations; 0 also equalled or exceeded every non-flat current magnitude.
History window: 2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00 to 2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: c2c90b43e443a231aaa131e454768cb5212e932a3a2240ea4166f077449170d0
invalidMeasurements: 15; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 1; duplicatePeriods: 37; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 7; incompatibleClocks: 27
Spot, ATM IV, RR25 and BF25
Unavailable: insufficient-history. Eligible history: 14; minimum 20.
History window: 2026-09-08T16:30:00+00:00 to 2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00.
History receipt and exclusions
SHA-256: 226bdbd4d93343ae94e54073b84c5faa80bace0cdb54599f12e475517c5be769
invalidMeasurements: 58; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 2; duplicatePeriods: 39; conflictingDays: 0; overlappingHistoryWindows: 5; incompatibleClocks: 18
One-month minus one-week ATM IV
Term-structure regime changes
A genuine sign crossing requires strictly opposite nonzero endpoints. An exactly zero slope is a zero touch. Version 2 separately requires both endpoints to clear opposite sides of ±0.50 volatility points for a material regime change. This deadband is provisional, not fit-calibrated or a rarity claim.
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | Regime evidence | History eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +5.72 | +3.55 | -2.17 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 33 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 60.6%. |
| HYPE | -2.27 | +2.37 | +4.64 | inverted → upward-sloping; material regime change | 35 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 97.1%. |
| AVAX | +2.35 | +1.04 | -1.31 | upward-sloping; no sign crossing | 30 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 40.0%. |
| TRX | -0.02 | -0.44 | -0.42 | inverted; no sign crossing | 33 observations; minimum 20. Absolute slope-change percentile 21.2%. |
Per-asset history receipts
XRP: 1239bda2f02188bd9e2b96e3cf5447b67d63fe30813656919d43bd82b37978c1
HYPE: c313273db048feb97ee989f697a715e4ec7ec2bb71263a3dc35e611e24cbc68e
AVAX: 17ffffeb3f06902e973a507554962dcba9a188fb2fe0d80d1ee9b4a95ac5ddf8
TRX: 37af44dcb92b260b330629ea379235c1c210403fb87b2f28de18f9492d69658f
Daily report context · 2026-10-11
Seven-asset daily observations
Report cutoff: . Comparison snapshot: .
Raw 24-hour spot signs: 7 higher, 0 lower, 0 exactly flat, 0 unavailable. 7 of seven moved higher.
With ±0.10% near-flat tolerance: 6 higher, 0 lower, 1 near-flat, 0 unavailable (TRX +0.03%).
All seven 1W ATM IV daily changes
Volatility points
Current: 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Previous: 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Exact 24-hour spot-index returns
Percent
Current: 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
Previous: 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The seven-asset measurement does not meet the stored quantitative prerequisites. IV qualification requires a common nonzero direction and at least 1.00 volatility points in every asset; publication also depends on materiality and editorial checks.
Historical eligibility: 19 complete observations; minimum 20. Unavailable: insufficient-history. Causality is not assessed.
Read the dated report and source evidence.
Event and source receipts
Event ID: market-wide-iv-spot-212c5a69a62b5069ce98cc02e110d1e61ad168b8958f1f97507449c7f910208b
Current source SHA-256: 6950edf5fb9e758798e48d1bfeb6a5aac9094200100954aa0c0ac16c034a7ded
Historical source SHA-256: f0d0198c081d7edc306edee9f6eab59ffb3ae91b7ad999a7e22cf852315e19fe
History window: 2026-09-03T16:48:00+00:00 to 2026-10-09T16:56:00+00:00.
invalidMeasurements: 60; currentOrFuture: 0; overlappingCurrentWindow: 0; incompatibleWindowLength: 0; duplicatePeriods: 0; conflictingDays: 2; overlappingHistoryWindows: 7
02 · Relative-value rankings
Leaders, laggards and rank changes.
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1W ATM IV level | AVAX · 71.17 | HYPE · 53.75 | XRP · 49.89 | TRX · 22.89 |
| Daily 1W ATM IV change | XRP · 3.44 | AVAX · 3.20 | TRX · 0.39 | HYPE · -2.45 |
| 1W IV minus 7d realised | TRX · 10.93 | XRP · 2.01 | HYPE · -1.51 | AVAX · -3.75 |
| Highest 1W RR25 | XRP · 5.19 · up 1 | AVAX · 4.29 · down 1 | TRX · 0.64 | HYPE · -1.84 |
| Lowest 1W RR25 | HYPE · -1.84 | TRX · 0.64 | AVAX · 4.29 · up 1 | XRP · 5.19 · down 1 |
| 24h spot-index return | AVAX · 3.93 | HYPE · 1.81 | XRP · 0.96 | TRX · 0.03 |
1W ATM IV change
-4.25 points from the group median
1W ATM IV level
-28.93 points from the group median
1W RR25 level
-4.30 points from the group median
1W IV minus 7D realised volatility
+10.68 points from the group median
03 · Altcoin scorecard
Current one-week volatility, realised value and skew.
| Asset | Spot 24h | Forward proxy | 1W ATM | 1W ATM Δ | 7d RV | 1W IV − 7d RV | IV/RV ratio | Spread percentile | 1W RR25 | Fit evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | +0.96% | $1.42 | 49.89% | +3.44 vol pts | 47.88% | +2.01 vol pts | 1.04× | Unavailable | +5.19 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| HYPE | +1.81% | $86.91 | 53.75% | -2.45 vol pts | 55.26% | -1.51 vol pts | 0.97× | Unavailable | -1.84 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| AVAX | +3.93% | $10.91 | 71.17% | +3.20 vol pts | 74.92% | -3.75 vol pts | 0.95× | Unavailable | +4.29 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
| TRX | +0.03% | $0.33 | 22.89% | +0.39 vol pts | 11.96% | +10.93 vol pts | 1.91× | Unavailable | +0.64 vol pts | Accepted fit · 7 expiries | 24h comparable |
04 · Term structures
ATM implied volatility across standard tenors.
| Asset | 1W ATM / Δ | 1M ATM / Δ |
|---|---|---|
| XRP | 49.89% / +3.44 | 53.44% / +1.27 |
| HYPE | 53.75% / -2.45 | 56.12% / +2.19 |
| AVAX | 71.17% / +3.20 | 72.21% / +1.89 |
| TRX | 22.89% / +0.39 | 22.45% / -0.03 |
05 · Catalyst check
Relevant market context identified
The central research dossier identified events relevant to the covered options markets; they are retained as context rather than assigned as causes.
Other asset and market reporting
- 01XRP Ledger Discloses Decade-Old Bug That Could Mint TrillionsThe Defiant ·
The flaw was fixed in xrpld 3.4.1 on Sept. Developers found no evidence it was exploited on a public network.
Evidence, source data and methodology
Altcoins report data
Download the report’s stored cross-asset comparisons, rankings, declared lead evidence and per-asset quality information. Missing analysis remains unavailable.
Lead signal · 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The measurement behind the lead chart
XRP 1W RR25 5.19 vol pts · Δ +3.11 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -1.84 vol pts · Δ -1.78 vol pts
XRP minus HYPE: signed spread +7.03 vol pts · spread Δ +4.89 vol pts
Original report summary
The altcoin basket's 1W RR25 range widened from 3.90 to 7.03 volatility points, with XRP at +5.19 and HYPE at -1.84 defining the endpoints. The comparison runs from October 10 to October 11 at 16:30 UTC. Daily changes in 1W ATM implied volatility also diverged, with three constituents rising and HYPE falling.
At report cutoff · Levels and stored endpoint changes
What matters now
Vol: XRP 1W ATM IV 49.89% · Δ +3.44 vol pts; HYPE 1W ATM IV 53.75% · Δ -2.45 vol pts; AVAX 1W ATM IV 71.17% · Δ +3.20 vol pts; TRX 1W ATM IV 22.89% · Δ +0.39 vol pts
Skew: XRP 1W RR25 5.19 vol pts · Δ +3.11 vol pts; HYPE 1W RR25 -1.84 vol pts · Δ -1.78 vol pts; AVAX 1W RR25 4.29 vol pts · Δ +0.45 vol pts; TRX 1W RR25 0.64 vol pts · Δ +0.46 vol pts
Relative value: XRP 1W IV 49.89% / 7D RV 47.88% · spread +2.01 vol pts; HYPE 1W IV 53.75% / 7D RV 55.26% · spread -1.51 vol pts; AVAX 1W IV 71.17% / 7D RV 74.92% · spread -3.75 vol pts; TRX 1W IV 22.89% / 7D RV 11.96% · spread +10.93 vol pts
Vol
XRP 1W ATM IV 49.89% · Δ +3.44 vol pts
HYPE 1W ATM IV 53.75% · Δ -2.45 vol pts
AVAX 1W ATM IV 71.17% · Δ +3.20 vol pts
TRX 1W ATM IV 22.89% · Δ +0.39 vol pts
Skew
XRP 1W RR25 5.19 vol pts · Δ +3.11 vol pts
HYPE 1W RR25 -1.84 vol pts · Δ -1.78 vol pts
AVAX 1W RR25 4.29 vol pts · Δ +0.45 vol pts
TRX 1W RR25 0.64 vol pts · Δ +0.46 vol pts
Wings
XRP 1W BF25 3.49 vol pts · Δ -1.65 vol pts
HYPE 1W BF25 3.02 vol pts · Δ -0.48 vol pts
AVAX 1W BF25 3.81 vol pts · Δ +0.35 vol pts
TRX 1W BF25 1.80 vol pts · Δ -0.26 vol pts
IV versus RV
XRP 1W IV 49.89% / 7D RV 47.88% · spread +2.01 vol pts
HYPE 1W IV 53.75% / 7D RV 55.26% · spread -1.51 vol pts
AVAX 1W IV 71.17% / 7D RV 74.92% · spread -3.75 vol pts
TRX 1W IV 22.89% / 7D RV 11.96% · spread +10.93 vol pts
Δ compares the report’s stored surface endpoints. IV versus RV is a level comparison, not a daily change.
Component cutoffs: XRP 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; HYPE 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; AVAX 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC; TRX 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. Each asset is shown separately.
7D realised volatility · data quality
| Asset | Recorded RV | Status | Coverage / required | Longest gap / maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 47.88% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| HYPE | 55.26% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| AVAX | 74.92% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
| TRX | 11.96% | Available | 100% / 99.5% required | 0 min / 60 min maximum |
Thresholds are asset-specific policies recorded in this edition. Each window is assessed independently; returns spanning gaps are excluded. Partial estimates may miss volatility during gaps.
RV coverage and methodology
XRP · Available · Surface cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
HYPE · Available · Surface cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
AVAX · Available · Surface cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
TRX · Available · Surface cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 16:30:00 UTC · 7D coverage 100% / 99.5% required · largest 7D gap 0 min / 60 min maximum · maximum gap 60 min.
24h: complete; 1440/1440 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
7d: complete; 10080/10080 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
30d: complete; 43200/43200 observed returns; 100% coverage; 99.5% minimum; 0 min largest gap.
06 · Methodology and provenance
An availability-aware daily comparison.
Latest successful snapshot at or before the common cutoff versus the nearest successful snapshot 24 hours earlier, within a three-hour tolerance.
Current levels remain visible when a 24-hour baseline does not yet exist; changes stay null rather than being inferred from a shorter window.
Realised volatility uses the canonical minute index for each asset. Spot returns and rankings use the same stored 24-hour index return; missing index returns remain unavailable. Forward levels and any legacy forward-return rankings are labelled separately.